SPX - Tonight We're Going To Party Like It's 1987?Looking at the monthly logarithmic chart of the S&P 500, this chart reflects what would happen if we had a repeat of 1987. Heading up to October 1987, there was a straight line run up of approximately 2 years, then a crash to the 0.5 Fib line quickly in 2 months, where the crash erased the gains of the prior 12 months.
If we extrapolate the same scenario for the S&P 500 for 2018, there was also a straight line run up for approximately 2 years, and if the S&P 500 retraces to its 0.5 Fib line, it would hit 2380 in approximately 2 months, which would also erase roughly 12 months worth of gains from Feb 2017 to Feb 2018.
Spxshort
S&P 500 signals a significant equity breakdown #SPX $SPXThe chart on the left hand side shows the macro view. According to the chart and the Elliott Wave counts, we are very close to the end of a super cycle. Since 2009, the stock market is in a bullish period but this rise will end in this year though the increase is still robust.
If you look at the other chart, which zooms in the 5th wave, SPX may see levels above 3,000 but levels above this threshold seem to be unlikely.
The next question is where will be the next support level. It will be quite early to speculate but a .50 correction to 1,800-2,000 is quite possible.
P.S. RSI shows an overbought level on the right hand side chart. RSI will be above 70 for a while but the with the upcoming correction, the indicator will gradually fall.
S&P500 Futures 1h Supply - Daily Engulfing Reversal!All Trade Parameters shown on the chart. Short setup on 1h Supply. Level on top of Level scenario. We will only short upper level due to risk and safety. Daily Reversal Pattern forming with a powerful engulfing candle! Looks like we reached the High of the Year.
RoadmapThis is based on the Nikkei 225 price action from late 1987 to 1990. The existing action fits well, we are now at early November 1989.
This chart presumes one more fast ramp by SPX to 2620, then a sharp 18% fall wiping out all the Trump gains. This would be followed by a 50% rebound, and then further falls into the next few years, eventually reaching the 2007 high of 1572.
SPX 5 rejections at 2350Hello Traders,
today we would like to share with you the SPX as it shows very interesting moves currently around the 2350 level.
"White House says vote on healthcare bill scheduled for 19:30GMT (via. Reuters)." Therefore, the market currently tumbles sideways as uncertainty arises, everyone is looking at a decision which could move the SPX as it currently flirts with 2350 zone on the downside, after the break of this zone on Tuesday. Will we see lower prices? First clue was the 5th rejection of the strong resistance zone at 2350. However, important is today's close together with new from the White House.
We always mention the importance of intermarket flows, as we believe that investors only repark their money due to sentiment and global macro-economic conditions. Therefore, we always keep in mind the in-and outflows with the help of our intermarket indications that lead us towards better timing when making a trading decision. As you might know that timing is one of the most important things when it comes to trading together of course with risk/money management.
As seen in the chart, two of our three intermarket indications already moving in lower areas territory. They might be the possibility that they soon reach extreme zones of more outflow of capital to other asset classes. We always take into account the BIG 4: Currencies , Bonds, Stocks and Commodities . Only the SPX/USDX ratio shows still more potential to the downside. Movements could be soon momentum driven based on intermarket indications.
As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% right and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care.
We wish you much success,
The Secrets2Trade Team
S&P 500 Short: Fundamental and TechnicalThe S&P 500 index is breaking all time highs every week. However, it looks set for a fall.
Fundamental: The US economy is strong. NFP was healthy, and whilst GDP missed on expectations, the FOMC's last statement was hawkish. In the medium term, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates, which should put pressure on the global stock market.
Technical: The weekly and monthly charts are showing strong divergence. On the weekly chart, the S&P 500 has been outside an 800-period BB for months. On the monthly chart, there is strong divergence which historically points to a long overdue, deep correction in the stock market.
In the short term, the index may test 2200.
However, in the medium to long term, it is due for a correction, perhaps to the 1900 level (a missed monthly pivot).
Furthermore, a break below 1800 (recent support from January 2016) should open the doors for a further decline.
S&P 500 MEDIUM TERM SHORT - Fundamental and TechnicalTVC:SPX
The S&P 500 composite index reached 2129.79 today, just a point away from its all time high at 2130.82.
This should provide a good place to short the S&P, because:
Fundamentally: the outlook for the US economy is strong, with good job growth - however , the Federal Reserve should now look to increase interest rates slowly, which should gradually weigh on the stock market.
Years of cheap borrowing will come to an end, with an inevitable crash in overvalued junk bonds.
Coupled with the risks of Brexit and low oil prices in the medium term, stocks remain overvalued.
Technically: SPX will face strong resistance at 2130.
It has been rejected from 2130 in July 2015 - exactly when the Federal Reserve was contemplating raising interest rates.
Below 2130-2135, SPX500 is bearish and may fall to 1800 in the medium term if the current economic climate persists.