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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

If History Rhymes, Here Is Top and BottomI am still quite confident the markets are set to drop significantly in 2024. I have studied correctional wave patterns that are similar to our current situation wherein the market topped on January 4, 2022 and began the corrective pattern. **The pattern contains a wave B that is larger than wave A in duration and movement. The wave C then moves more than wave B** The current case so far so the index drop 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days. As of the close on March 6, 2024, wave B has gained 1,658.09 points in 347 trading days (the current top for this calculation is 5149.67 on March 4. CURRENT SITUATION SO FAR: I have found similar conditions 11 times historically and studied how waves B and C reacted in those situations and applied it to the current case to determine where wave B could end and what wave C could do. ******2023****** This first event began February 24, 2023. I will use 6 minute bars for comparisons. This is an inversion to today's scenario as the B wave moved down instead of up. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 74.97 points over 58 trading bars Wave B moved 89.89 points over 193 trading bars Wave C moved 150.33 points over 149 trading bars Wave A was 30.05% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 119.90% of wave A's movement Wave A was 38.93% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 200.52% of wave A's movement The full inverted movement picture was this: If we apply the data explicitly to the data from our 2022 wave A, wave B could last 647 trading days gaining 1,591.14 points placing the market top at 5,082.72. Wave C could then lose 2,660.98 points in 501 trading days. ******2018****** This next event began January 26, 2023. I have returned to daily bars for this scenario. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 319.07 points over 44 trading days Wave B moved 387.11 points over 121 trading days Wave C moved 594.33 points over 65 trading days Wave A was 36.36% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 121.32% of wave A's movement Wave A was 67.69% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 186.27% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 536 trading days gaining 1,609.96 points placing the market top at 5,101.54. Wave C could then lose 2,471.88 points in 288 trading days. ******2014****** This next event began July 24, 2014. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 82.38 points over 73 trading hours Wave B moved 110.25 points over 205 trading hours Wave C moved 198.6 points over 129 trading hours Wave A was 35.61% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 133.83% of wave A's movement Wave A was 56.59% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 241.08% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 548 trading days gaining 1,775.98 points placing the market top at 5,267.56. Wave C could then lose 3,199.23 points in 344 trading days. ******2011****** This next event began January 19, 2011. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 23.34 points over 6 trading hours Wave B moved 31.41 points over 22 trading hours Wave C moved 26.17 points over 4 trading hours Wave A was 27.27% % the duration of wave B Wave B moved 134.58% of wave A's movement Wave A was 150% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 112.13% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 715 trading days gaining 1,785.93 points placing the market top at 5,277.51. Wave C could then lose 1,488.01 points in 130 trading days. ******2005****** This next event began March 7, 2005. I will return to daily trading bars for this example and the rest after this point. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 89.47 points over 31 trading days Wave B moved 109.64 points over 73 trading days Wave C moved 77.44 points over 50 trading days Wave A was 42.47% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 122.54% of wave A's movement Wave A was 62.00% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 86.55% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 459 trading days gaining 1,626.15 points placing the market top at 5,117.73. Wave C could then lose 1,148.55 points in 314 trading days. ******2000****** This next event began March 24, 2000. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 784.24 points over 639 trading days Wave B moved 807.46 points over 1259 trading days Wave C moved 909.3 points over 352 trading days Wave A was 50.75% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 102.96% of wave A's movement Wave A was 181.53% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 115.95% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 384 trading days gaining 1,366.32 points placing the market top at 4,857.90. Wave C could then lose 1,538.70 points in 107 trading days. ******1990****** This next event began January 3, 1990. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 40.76 points over 19 trading days Wave B moved 49.95 points over 115 trading days Wave C moved 75.27 points over 62 trading days Wave A was 16.52% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 122.55% of wave A's movement Wave A was 30.65% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 184.67% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,180 trading days gaining 1,626.29 points placing the market top at 5,117.87. Wave C could then lose 2,450.64 points in 636 trading days. ******1979****** This next event began October 5, 1979. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 13.1 points over 11 trading days Wave B moved 21.16 points over 79 trading days Wave C moved 25.99 points over 30 trading days Wave A was 13.92% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 161.53% of wave A's movement Wave A was 36.67% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 198.40% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,401 trading days gaining 2,143.57 points placing the market top at 5,635.15. Wave C could then lose 2,632.85 points in 532 trading days. ******1968****** This next event began December 2, 1968. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 40.76 points over 368 trading days Wave B moved 53.13 points over 665 trading days Wave C moved 60.78 points over 437 trading days Wave A was 55.34% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 130.35% of wave A's movement Wave A was 84.21% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 149.12% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 352 trading days gaining 1,729.80 points placing the market top at 5,221.38. Wave C could then lose 1,978.88 points in 231 trading days. ******1965****** This next event began May 13, 1965. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 9.95 points over 32 trading days Wave B moved 13.99 points over 156 trading days Wave C moved 22.44 points over 168 trading days Wave A was 20.51% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 140.60% of wave A's movement Wave A was 19.05% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 225.53% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 950 trading days gaining 1,865.82 points placing the market top at 5,357.40. Wave C could then lose 2,992.87 points in 1,024 trading days. Based on all of these instances, some are too far off to rhyme to our current situation when it comes to likely duration of wave B or top while others have options in play in the very near-term. With our current high 347 days into wave B, the next likely duration candidates are: 352, 384, 459, 536, 548, 647, 715, and 950. With only one top more than 300 points ago, nearby tops for wave B are at: 5,102, 5,118 (twice), 5,221, 5,267, 5,277, 5,357, and 5,635. One of the historically similar instances possible in the near-term for both the duration and top are from 1968. A replication or near similar movement could place the top on next Monday at 5,221. This happens to be the day prior to the next CPI reading. A CPI increase could further delay or altogether push rate cuts off the table this year. If this is the exact top, the bottom could occur 231 trading days later near 3,242.50. This level aligns very near my original forecasted low below 3,300 (granted I figured the top would have been in well before now). The bottom could be around February 10, 2025 which is also in my semi-wide ballpark of the original market bottom forecasted on July 4, 2022. The highest retracement for wave B's movement in relation to wave C is 161% from 1979, while most reside in the 119%-135% range. We have currently retraced (over extended) around 125% of wave A's movement. We shall see what occurs as time moves on. If a drastic falls is still set to occur, it will take cascading events likely to the finance and technology sectors to make it so.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
$PANW – Looks like it may have bottomedNASDAQ:PANW This cybersecurity leader got beat-up on the last earnings report. It looks to me that it may have bottomed out. On this weekly chart (the week is still young) it is in the process of setting up as an inside week. It is regaining the 40 Week MA which I view as important. Additionally, the volume has been declining since the big sell-off. I take that to mean that the selling pressure is over or about over. I am going to be patient with this one and look for it to close above that 40-week MA. If it does, I will look at a lower timeframe chart for a good entry where I can find a good risk reward entry. For now, it is on my watchlist as a B+ set-up in the making. The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:PANWLong
by jaxdog
SPY LONG: scout for hourly higher lowBulls defended the weekly low and made a convincing breakout yesterday. This is a powerful statement, although buyers have not yet proven their control. To do that, they must first establish a weekly higher low, which is likely to happen next week (of course, we need to monitor how things develop). This presents a great opportunity for a long play, but buyers should wait for a pullback and scout for an hourly higher low. Ideally, this should occur near the previous Volume Area High (VAH). An example of the trade is shown on the chart. You can read full analysis of the market below Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
1
Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling over the key support at 5191 in the red flag pattern. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Defending the Flag: The red flag pattern with support at 5191 or 5184 remains the key focus. Bulls must defend this zone. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also signal potential for longs. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in highly volatile conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191, ideally with any dips below 5184 quickly reclaimed. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible for a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, stick to level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 12th, 2024 Economic Data & Interest Rates Mortgage rates rise above 7% due to inflation concerns. High-yield savings accounts offer some protection against inflation. Mixed signals on the timing of Fed rate cuts. Earnings & Bank Stocks Big banks report Q1 results, providing insights into the financial sector. Focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Market Outlook & Analysis S&P 500 hits new highs, strong Q1 performance. April historically a bullish month. Corporate profits and analyst ratings in focus. Global Markets Japan's 5-year bond yield surges. Singapore's GDP growth remains modest. Rising concern over global financial fraud and scams. Reminder: The market remains volatile. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Making your first million is the hardestAfter that, it's leverage. The issue for me as a long-time trader, is people these days don't seem to have time, patience or the ability to absorb information. They read an article or watch a few seconds of a stream and assume they know! I am not just talking crypto, I mean in general. The attention span of a fish. I read a pretty decent article by this guy @holeyprofit He talked about Bitcoin Mania with a lot of truth, most people won't want to hear. Article here The issue is the whole market right now are currently hinging on or near their all-time highs, Gold, Bitcoin, SPX (S&P500) stocks such as Meta, NVIDIA and loads of others. Instead of shouting for even greater highs, the question should be "what is sustaining the rally?" For the majority of retail traders, they assume it's different this time. Gamestop was up until it was not. The issue is that they never learn. They have no concept of time factors and the assumption that markets only ever go up is the very reason the majority of traders stay broke. Crypto is a really interesting space, when I first got involved in 2011, it was a punt. I got lucky, but buying cheap and selling high is what most people strive for. Yet, reading posts and social media content - nobody sells, they all buy low, stacking sats when the price drops. So where is the profit? Well paper gains I assume. Game stop... Not to focus on Crypto; the markets as a whole can be profitable and just like Kenny Rogers said - "if you're going to play the game boy, you got to learn to play it right. know when to hold, know when to fold, know when to walk away and know when to run" Every hand's a winner - every hand's a loser. Key message there!!! Trading vs investments - if you are looking to make it big on one deal, that's different than profiting from the market every week, every month and every year. Risk management is key, scaling your account, cutting losers quickly and adding to winners. Many won't understand this concept. Markets go up and everyone is a genius in a bull market. Once you start scaling an account, the trade percentages in terms of rewards you seek don't matter the same. You don't need 10x returns on your thousand dollars. A 3% win on your million-dollar account is a different game. Back in 2021; I wrote this educational post about the psychology of the markets. I used the Simpsons as a way to get the message over. Markets breathe and the rise and fall, rise and fall. Once you realise you can take from the market consistently, you will see the stress disappear, and the care of price up or down matters less. Your investment criteria changes and the scope gets wider. This is how you scale from that first million, into the second and third. Not having all eggs in one basket and hope it goes up forever. What if gold drops 10% and you are long? can you afford a 5 year spell on the investment you have? These are the kinds of questions you need to be asking yourself. What if Bitcoin's halving is a buy the rumour, sell the news and we take another 3 years to get back to a new ATH? "ah it's different this time" - yeah I heard all that in 2021 when certain influencers were calling for $135,000 worse case within a month. We are 2024 and still roughly half of the way to 135k?? I know for you guys who want to learn and progress you would have read this far; for those who "already know" they have stopped reading about 4 lines in and seeing a picture or 2. They leave a comment due to their keyboard warrior mindset and fish-like capacity for thinking. The point is to ensure you deploy proper risk management, especially here near the tops of a lot of these markets, trail your stop losses, and don't forget to cash out your profits. Paper gains can quickly become paper losses. If you're serious about money making, be prepared to diversify, be prepared to sit on your hands, keep cash in your pocket as well as be prepared to take calculated risks. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
S&P bears attack, bulls still holdLast week was marked by the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers. On Monday Buyers were ideally positioned for another break out but they didn’t have enough steam to accomplish it. Sellers, long awaiting their opportunity, pushed the price down, breaking the weekly support. However, they couldn’t develop this into something more significant, as the bulls returned with a firm "no". The rest of the week continued in the same tug-of-war fashion. The most confusing days were Thursday and Friday. Thursday started very bullish but ended with a dramatic bearish turn. Friday, expected to be bearish, unfolded under the bulls' control. This was a story. Now, let’s now review all the signals more formally: Bearish Signals • Confirmed downtrend on the daily chart, indicated by a lower high and lower low. • Weekly consolidation has begun. Bullish Signals • The week closed right at the previous week's low after price shaped hourly higher low • Friday’s value zone is within the value zone of the previous four days. The context remains very bullish – price is in a strong weekly uptrend, last month closed very strong. Overall, it is a very ambiguous case with neither side having a clear advantage. Buyers are exhausted, yet not willing to capitulate. Bears are attempting to play their game but lack sufficient strength. The short-term outlook is neutral. From this position market can go in any direction. We need additional signs of one side gaining an upper hand. Until then, it is not advisable to place big bets on either side. Wednesday is a very important day, with both the release of inflation data and the FOMC meeting Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
2
S&P500 Channel Down Top Sell Signal.The S&P500 index is trading inside a Channel Down. Every break over the MA50 (4h) forms its Lower High and is a sell signal. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as it is over the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 5125 (expected contact with the MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, which is a Bullish Divergence in contrast with the Channel Down Lower Highs. This potentially indicates that after the MA50 test, the index may resume the long term bullish trend.. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
1
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market continues to digest the hotter-than-expected CPI report and its implications for the Federal Reserve's actions. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Flag Structure in Focus: The red flag pattern established since the March 31st ATH remains crucial, with support at 5191 (ideal hold) or 5184 being key for bulls to defend. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also be a long signal. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in these conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191 or at least 5184 to maintain control. Spikes below 5184 with rapid reclaims could signal buying strength. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible, triggering a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 11th, 2024 Interest Rates & Inflation Market adjusts to potential year without Fed rate cuts. Larry Summers suggests the Fed might raise rates further. Hotter CPI boosts the US dollar to a 5-month high. Oil, China & Global Markets Oil prices on the rise, Bank of America predicts potential $100 per barrel. China's inflation slows, while US inflation exceeds expectations. Swiss government proposes tighter bank regulation; concerns remain. US Labor Market & Stock Performance Strong US jobs report for March highlights economic resilience. S&P 500 posts strong Q1 gains. Banking Regulations & Debt Relief UBS benefits from less-stringent Swiss banking regulation plans. US Treasury calls for action on debt relief for developing countries. ECB Policy & Corporate Earnings ECB moves closer to a rate cut. Earnings season focus on big banks and consumer spending. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
SPX500 is trading at support, suggesting dip in an uptrendShort-term traders are trying to be proactive, however technical developments are still required before a "dip in the uptrend" scenario is registered. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
SPY All eyes on the 1D MA50. Will it hold?SPY broke below the (blue) Channel Up and the only Support standing now is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This level has been holding since the November 03 2023 break-out. If it holds, a new pattern will emerge but the medium-term bullish trend will stay intact. If the 1D MA50 breaks though, we expect a bearish extension similar to August 15 2023, February 24 2023 and December 16 2022. As you can see those 1D MA50 bearish break-outs coincided with the 1D CCI breaking below the -100.00 oversold barrier. This is the level that the CCI is at today. As a result, once the 1D MA50 breaks, we expect further decline towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The shortest decline among the pull-backs mentioned above has been -5.93%. This gives us a rough estimate of 495.00. That would be the most optimal buy entry for the long-term. Our Target by the end of May will be 524.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPY
by TradingShot
1
The trend of higher peaks and troughs is brokenThe VIX’s structure with higher peaks and troughs became distorted after the FOMC meeting. Despite this being a positive development for the markets, it might be proper to stay attentive to the VIX for a couple more days to watch out for any potential rekindling of volatility. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the broadening structure. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIX
by Tradersweekly
8
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 10, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Volatile and uncertain. CPI came in hotter than expected, increasing the likelihood of continued aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve. CPI Data and Impact: CPI rose 0.4% for the month, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 3.5%, surpassing expectations. Core CPI also accelerated 0.4% monthly and 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts. This suggests inflation remains persistent and could pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance with higher interest rates. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5256, 5246-50 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5213 (major). Major Supports: 5207, 5203, 5192 (major), 5181, 5171, 5162-64 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5262 (major), 5274-76 (major), 5288 (major), 5302 (major), 5351-54 (major). Major Resistances: 5312 (major), 5374, 5386 (major), 5406 (major), 5441 (major), and more. Trading Strategy CPI Volatility: The hotter-than-expected CPI numbers will likely continue to generate market volatility. Exercise extreme caution and adapt your trading accordingly. Focus on Reactions: Patience is essential. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims to identify potential entry points. Long Opportunities: Prioritize reclaims over direct bids at major supports. Consider longs if major supports like 5246-50, 5230-34, or 5213 hold after potential dips, but only AFTER a failed breakdown and convincing reclaim. Deep dips to 5162-64 may warrant small knife-catch longs. Short Opportunities: While counter-trend shorts are generally unadvised, those inclined may try shorts at 5302 and 5350, BUT with enhanced caution as even major resistances can be blown through after news events like CPI. Bull Case Bull Flag in Play: The bull flag with support at 5191 and resistance at 5274-76 remains relevant, but the hotter CPI makes a clean breakout less likely. Holding Support: Bulls could still maintain control if 5230-34 holds any dips or if lost levels are quickly reclaimed within approximately 15 minutes. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of the bull flag support at 5191 (initiated) increases the likelihood of a more significant bearish move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5189 for a move down the levels. Increased Fed Pressure: The hotter-than-expected CPI reading strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive stance on interest rates, potentially leading to further downward pressure on the market. News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024 CPI Impact on Markets Hotter-than-expected CPI raises concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's potential actions. Market volatility surges as traders reassess expectations. Treasury Rates & Fed Policy US 10-Year Treasury yield could hit 4.5% on inflation concerns. Fed Chair Powell emphasizes need for inflation cooling evidence before rate cuts. Bowman suggests further rate hikes may be needed if inflation stalls. Individual Stocks Tech and growth stocks may be particularly vulnerable to rising interest rate fears. Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities could receive favor. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management, react to price action, and adjust your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
S&P500 Bull Cycle intact. 100 year long Blueprint revealed!A lot of talk is being done lately on whether the S&P500 index (SPX) has maxed now that it made new All Time Highs (ATH) or it is in need of a strong correction etc. Those who have been following us for long here, know that in times like this, we like to keep a long-term perspective and give you the picture unfiltered with the facts only. Along those lines, we present you the S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale. As you can see, since the Great Depression, the stock market started to creat a pattern with clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons' to fill out and complete this pattern. Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200. With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended. Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous). This may all be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics. Are you willing to bet against this blueprint? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
SPX setting up positively ahead of tomorrow's CPI releaseSPX setting up positively ahead of tomorrow's CPI release. IF stochastic can hold in its upper quartile, an underlying positive momentum will be present. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
1
MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ NFIB National Federation of Independent Business Index (NFIB) Released Tuesday 13th Feb 2024 Think of the NFIB small business index as a sentiment index, a sort of mood meter for small businesses. The higher the index, the more optimistic small businesses will be about spending more, expanding and increasing or maintaining employees. The NFIB is the nation’s largest small business advocacy group, with more than 600,000 members from all 50 states. Members are typically small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These small businesses account for roughly 50% of the nation's private workforce and contribute to 44% of all U.S. economic activity making them an extremely important cohort to monitor and survey for economic purposes. The NFIB Index data The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (chart data) is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components calculated based on the answers of around 620 of the NFIB members. The survey questions cover various aspects of business sentiment, such as hiring plans, sales expectations, capital expenditure plans, and overall economic outlook. The Index figure is derived from all the survey responses, weighted and aggregated to produce a composite score that reflects the sentiment and economic outlook of small business owners. Baseline Level (100): The baseline level of 100 is often considered the neutral point on the NFIB Index. An index value of 100 indicates that small business owners are neither optimistic nor pessimistic about economic conditions. Values above 100 indicate optimism, while values below 100 indicate pessimism. On the chart below I note the relevance of the sub 91.5 level as a breach of this level has historically preceded or coincided with recessions (grey areas). The Chart The chart is fairly straightforward in that the green zone illustrates the optimistic zone (>100), the pessimistic zone is orange (<100) and the recession zone is red (<91.5). At present we are moving out of recessionary territory into the pessimism zone which is an improvement but we are a long way from the neutral level of 100. Expectations for Tuesdays release is a slight move higher towards 92.4. If we do move to 92.4 it will be the highest level recorded since June 2022. NFIB Negative Divergences Here is a supplemental chart that illustrates how the NFIB small business sentiment index has presented clear negative divergences against the S&P 500 during the last three recessions. In addition to the negative divergences, thereafter the following trigger events marked the beginning of thee significant drawdown events of each recession; 1⃣ The NFIB index breached below the 100 level in Oct 2000 prior to the Dot. Com Crash 2⃣ The NFIB index breached below the 91.5 index level in April 2008 prior to the GFC capitulation event 3⃣ The NFIB index breached both the 100 (Mar 2020) and 91.5 (Apr 2020) index level during the COVID Crash. In summary the negative divergences signaled the initial warning signs of recessions, thereafter losing key levels such as the 100 level and 91.5 level signaled the main draw down event initiation. Not all negative divergences resulted in a recession or poor price action and not all recessions came about after a breach of the 100 level however, both in combination add weight to the probability (but no guarantee's). This chart should not be viewed in isolation but should be added to our other charts to help gauge the likelihood of negative and positive outcomes. At present the small cap 2000 index is significantly under performing other stock indices which are breaking past all time highs. The small cap 2000 TVC:RUT adds weight to the struggling smaller businesses in the U.S. when combined with the under performing pessimistic reading of the NFIB small business index. A significantly positive reading on the NFIB could be a leading signal that small caps could start to perform again, catching up with the other indices. A negative reading might suggest the small caps 2000 will continue to lag and struggle. Lets see how we fair on Tuesday for the release of January 2024's survey results PUKA Lets see how we fair on Tuesday for the release of January 2024's survey results PUKA
ECONOMICS:USBOI
by PukaCharts
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Consolidating within a tight range. Expect a breakout or breakdown with the potential for increased volatility. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5246, 5232-35 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207 (major). Major Supports: 5196-98 (major), 5181, 5172 (major), 5155 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5256, 5262 (major), 5274, 5285 (major), 5294, 5302 (major). Major Resistances: 5308 (major), 5327-30 (major), 5348 (major), 5379 (major), and others. Trading Strategy Rangebound Consolidation: ES is forming a tight base between 5235-5263. Exercise patience and prioritize either tactical adds on support tests/failed breakdowns OR hold a runner position with the trend. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5246 and 5232-35 (prioritize the latter). Consider dips below 5232 to 5207 or 5196-98, especially if followed by reclaims. Stick to level-to-level profit-taking. Short Opportunities: While avoiding counter-trend shorts is generally advised, those inclined may consider potential shorts at 5285 (red downtrend resistance) or 5302-08 for dips. Bull Case Holding Support: Bulls maintain control as long as the 5232-35 zone holds. If it does, consolidation continues, likely forming a bullish triangle for another push toward 5274, 5285, and potentially 5302-08. Adding on Strength: If ES bases above 5246 (with dips below recovered) while staying under 5263, consider potential adds. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5232 triggers the bear case. Remember, most breakdowns are traps, so look for a retest and failed breakdown of 5232 first, then consider shorts with level-to-level targets. News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024 Economic Indicators CPI and PPI data in focus for inflation insights. Bond market signals potential for stable interest rates. Corporate Earnings Big banks to release quarterly reports. Interest Rate Decisions Bank of Canada and ECB announcements could impact FX and indices. EU Joint Borrowing Plan Success of the EU plan could inform future fiscal tools. Corporate Events Blackstone's potential buyout of L’Occitane. Reminder: Expect a breakout from the current tight range, potentially with volatility. Focus on reacting to price action, prioritizing risk management.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish with potential for volatility as CPI data approaches. Important Note: CPI data will be released later this week. Expect outsized moves and potential traps. Prioritize risk management and adaptability. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5246 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207, 5203 (major), and others. Major Supports: 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5179 (major), 5172, 5162 (major), 5155, 5144-46 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5255 (major), 5263, 5270 (major), 5279, 5287, 5292 (major), and others. Major Resistances: 5302, 5308 (major), 5311, 5316, 5321, 5329-32 (major), and more. Trading Strategy Defending Support: The 5230-34 zone is crucial for bulls. Holding this level signals potential for an upwards move toward 5287-92, with possible profit-taking dips along the way. Long Opportunities: Focus on the 5230-34 zone (if today's high remains unbroken). In case of a breakdown, use extreme caution and target major supports like 5203 and 5191. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims as potential long entry signals. Shorting with Caution: Shorting into strength within bull markets is inherently risky. If considering shorts, the best area is the 5287-92 zone (red downtrend channel), with another potential reaction at 5270. Bull Case Holding Strong: As long as 5230-34 support holds (ideally with a minor dip promptly bought below 5203), the path is open to 5287-92. Expect another dip there before potentially reaching new all-time highs. Ultra Bullish Scenario: If bulls hold above 5246 and buy any small dips, this signals strength and could lead to potential adds. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: If 5230-34 fails, the bear case activates. Since most breakdowns trap, look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider short entries with level-to-level profit targets. News: Top Stories for April 8th, 2024 Stock Market Outlook S&P 500 hits record highs, strong Q1 performance increases bullish sentiment. Reduced recession fears and potential Fed pivot drive positive outlook. April historically favorable for the S&P 500. Analysts forecast strong earnings growth with significant upside potential. Corporate Earnings Intel's Q1 2024 financial results release set for April 25th. Perion Network updates guidance, increases share buyback. Economic Indicators Q4 GDP growth remains solid despite high interest rates. Bond market signals potential Fed rate cuts as early as June. Trade deficit widens, while manufacturing data shows strength. Technology Sector Modest growth expected in 2024, with IT investment plans. AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity to drive tech spending. Other Corporate and Market News Nvidia's strong performance continues in AI chip market. Tesla faces challenges in China, automotive growth slows. Boeing impacted by quality control concerns. Upcoming Events Tech conferences including Google Cloud Next and ODSC East. Women in Tech Global Conference highlights industry leaders. Reminder: The CPI release this week will likely cause significant volatility. Adapt your trading accordingly, with an emphasis on reacting to price action and prioritizing risk management.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
SPX500 setting up bullishly pre-cash openSPX500 setting up bullishly pre-cash open. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
1