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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

SPX Continues Bullish Trend After RetestSPX Continues Bullish Trend After Retest The SPX has completed its retest and subsequently pushed higher, maintaining its bullish trend. As long as the index trades above the key levels of 5347 and 5320, the bullish momentum is expected to continue. This week, the SPX is projected to reach the initial target of 5378, with the potential to advance further towards 5423. Bullish Scenario: the price has a bullish trend to reach 5378 as long as trades above 5347, breaking 5378 means will continue the bullish trend to get 5423 Bearish Scenario: If the price trades below 5347, it indicates a potential drop towards 5320. A breach of 5320 could further lead to 5301. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the bearish area, with the next target at 5260. Key Level - Pivot Line: 5347 - Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423 - Support Levels: 5320, 5301, 5260 Today's Expected Trading Range: - Support: 5320 - Resistance: 5420 In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350 tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5385 bull case: In my weekly outlook I was more bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500. After today’s price action above 5360, I’m not so sure. If bulls can break above 5380 and the ath 5385, sure they can get it but today’s highs were not bought eagerly. Bulls remain in full control, trading above 15/60 and daily 20ema. Invalidation is below 5350. bear case: Bears see today’s bull channel as a weaker one, which already had 4 pushes to the upper trend line. They want a reversal below the ath tomorrow and test back down to at least 5350 and then the open of this week at 5347. I expect bears to keep the market inside the triangle for most of tomorrow and going into the CPI release. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: neutral inside given range. Bulls would need to break strongly above 5380 for me to go long up here. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long double bottom bar 18 + 36 on bar 39. 15m 20ema held so you could have held into close.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX500 trading in bullish channelThere was some volatility in the market last week. Nevertheless, the SPX500 is trading in a bullish area. The longer this is maintained and the RSI remains above 50 the greater the likelihood of higher prices ahead. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) : CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) : Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
SP500 Index Technical AnalysisSP500 Index Technical Analysis The SP500 index appears poised for a retest of the 5320 level. A break below 5320 would likely lead the index to touch 5301. Bullish Scenario: For the bullish trend to continue, the price must stabilize above 5347. If it does, the next target will be 5375. Breaking through 5375 could lead to new record highs. Bearish Scenario: If the price trades below 5347, it indicates a potential drop towards 5320. A breach of 5320 could further lead to 5301. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the bearish area, with the next target at 5260. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5347 - Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423 - Support Levels: 5320, 5301, 5260 Today's Expected Trading Range: - Support: 5301 - Resistance: 5375 In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX: supported by jobs data Increasing unemployment is not suggesting that the economy is in its perfect shape, however, under current circumstances, markets are reacting positively to such news. This comes from their optimistic view that the rise in unemployment would push Fed officials to decrease interest rates and in this sense, create better conditions for the future growth of the economy. The S&P 500 started the previous week at the level of 5.238, however, during the week was in a bullish mood and hit new ATH on Friday's trading session, after posted jobs data in the US. New highest level reached was 5.371. The index is closing the week at the level of 5.346. This was another winning week of the index, with a weekly gain of 1.32%, supported by macro data and also robust corporate earnings, and tech companies. The week ahead brings FOMC meetings and rate decisions. Also Fed`s economic projections will be discussed. This might bring back some volatility on the markets, especially if Fed Chair Powell communicates any new information that the market did not price in the previous period. However, for the moment, investors' optimism still holds strongly over the course of the US economy in the coming period.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
SPY still bullish, holding both the 1D MA50 and MA100.Last time we looked at SPY (May 01, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signal following the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) bottom and we are already well into new All Time High territory: As you can see, the price hit the top of the short-term (dotted) Channel Up and pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This inability to break above the Channel Up, leads us to believe that it will continue to be the dominant pattern, instead of the long-term (blue) Channel Up, and will dictate the price action higher but only gradually. Another test of the 1D MA100 is possible under those conditions that will allow for a smooth hit on our 555.00 long-term Target. If however the dashed line holds, it is possible to see an even more aggressive Channel Up materializing, in which case we will move our Target even higher at 580.00, in order to represent a Bullish Leg similar to January - February 2024. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPYLong
by TradingShot
1
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: Monday and Tuesday were bullish dojis on the daily chart but bears finally gave up on Wednesday where we did all of the points gained for last week. I said that the bear case was weak at best and that stays the same, until bears will get below the breakout bar and price of 5300. That levels needs to become resistance, for bears to have a shot. I do think the price action speaks more of a leg inside a trading range and we just made a higher high, but if bulls can get above 5400, that take is wrong and we are in W5 which could bring us to 5500/5600. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. It’s unclear. We do not get consecutive bull trend bars on the daily chart since first half of May. The daily chart makes higher prices but only through spikes, followed by pull-backs or dojis. This is not behaving like a leg in a strong bull trend. key levels: 5300 - 5400 bull case: Market refuses to go down but it’s not as bullish as it seems. A deeper pull-back is around the corner imo. Bulls are still in full control and could get another spike up, if market chooses to front-run the events or interpret the news as bullish. Chart is clear imo, W5 can lead to 5500 or higher but for that to happen, bulls need a strong break above this wedge top. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears gave up on Wednesday after trying on Monday and Tuesday. The only thing they had going for them over the last 15 weeks was, that they kept weekly closes below 5300, which should have been bigger resistance. Looking at the weekly and monthly chart, it’s just bullish, despite the up moves getting weaker and bulls only get single spikes and no follow through. No matter if we get a W5 up, market will have a deeper pull-back like the one from April to below 5000. We will at least touch the bull trend line again over the next couple of weeks, if not break it. Bears need consecutive daily closes below 5300 for that to happen. Invalidation is above 5400. outlook last week: “ Neutral until bulls get follow through. I do think bulls are favored but we are right at the upper bull flag line and it’s a weak bear trend inside this bull flag until bulls stop the lower lows and make higher highs again. ” → Last Sunday we traded 5295 and now we are at 5355. 5260 was my target for the bears and the weekly low as 5246. The lows held and bulls pushed it above 5350, which was my bullish target. So both prices I laid out got hit. short term: Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. —unchanged current swing trade: Not interested in buying up here, except intraday scalps. If CPI comes in hot, I will initiate new long term shorts. Chart update: Removed the bull flag, that’s it.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Fed Expected to Hold Rates Amid Mixed Economic IndicatorsFed Expected to Hold Rates Amid Mixed Economic Indicators Focus on CPI Data and Rate Decision: Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision are in the spotlight. This follows rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank last week. However, the Fed is not expected to follow suit—at least not immediately. CPI Growth Expectations: U.S. CPI growth for May is anticipated to remain steady at 3.4% year-over-year. Energy prices likely declined in May as oil prices edged lower, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to decrease slightly to 3.5% from 3.6% in April. This reflects a more normal 0.2% month-over-month increase. Additionally, home rent price growth is projected to slow, alongside a decrease in the core services ex-rent measure that Fed policymakers closely monitor. In April, this measure increased by 0.4%, down from an average of 0.7% per month over the first quarter of the year. Inflation Pressure Measures: The diffusion index, which gauges the breadth of inflation pressures, has shown little improvement recently. Fed policymakers believe the current interest rates are restrictive enough to eventually bring inflation back to the 2% target. Firm U.S. employment numbers in May, including a slight increase in wage growth, indicate no immediate pressure on the Fed to lower rates. Interest Rate Outlook: Our base case scenario suggests that the Fed will not be in a position to cut interest rates until December. This assumption hinges on the expectation that economic growth and inflation will slow in the coming months. Technical Analysis: SP500 Index Outlook Weekly Chart Analysis: The SP500 index recently retested its support line at 5260, stabilizing in a bullish zone. This suggests a continuation of the upward trend towards targets of 5423 and 5500, particularly if the CPI comes in below 3.4%. Bullish Scenario: As long as the price remains above 5260, the bullish trend is expected to continue, targeting 5425 and 5500, potentially reaching a new all-time high. Bearish Scenario: For a bearish trend to emerge, the price must fall below the support line at 5260, which could then lead to targets of 5040 and 4923. Key Levels: Pivot Price: 5320 Support Levels: 5260, 5193, 4930 Resistance Levels: 5423, 5520, 5600 Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the resistance at 5525 and the support at 5260. Overall Tendency: The outlook appears bullish.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
US30 (Sensitive movements)Technical Analysis The price movement will be influenced by the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Unemployment rates. Based on current expectations, the price is likely to exhibit a downtrend, though the market may experience random fluctuations. There is a possibility for a retest up to 38,790, followed by an upward push towards 39,050. Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below the support level at 38790, it could decline to 38580. Sustained trading below this level may lead to a further drop to 38400. Bullish Scenario: Stability above 38,790 indicates a potential bullish trend, targeting 39,050. Pivot Line: 38790 Resistance Levels: 39050, 39350, 39700 Support Levels: 38580, 38400, 38290 Today's expected movement range is between the support level at 38400 and the resistance level at 39350 Summary: Downtrend Expected: Market influenced by NFP and Unemployment rates. Potential Retest: Price may rise to 38,790. Upward Movement : Post-retest, the price could push up to 39,050. previous idea:
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPx (Correction after rally or finished) Technical Analysis of SPx the price will move under the NFP and the Unemployment rate pressure, so the movement will be huge for the indices. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 5260, potentially pushing up to 5302. If the price surpasses this level, it may indicate the start of a new bullish trend of about 5347. but right now as long as the price trades above 5347 means will try to touch 5378 as well. Bearish Scenario: if the price breaks 5347 means will drop to touch 5320 and then downward should break the support zone which is 5301 to get 5259 Pivot Line: 5347 Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423 Support Levels: 5320, 5302, 5260 Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5301 and the resistance at 5423. Market Concentration Hits Record Levels with Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL For the first time since at least 2000, three U.S. stocks—Microsoft Corp., Nvidia Corp., and Apple Inc.—now account for over 20% of the S&P 500's total value, according to Dow Jones Market Data. This means that these three companies alone are worth more than hundreds of other constituents combined, as highlighted by data from Bespoke Investment Group. Historically, increasing concentration in a few large-cap stocks has often coincided with stronger overall returns for the S&P 500. However, the rapid rise in the values of these tech giants is causing some concern among investors. Even those who have been bullish are starting to feel uneasy about the growing dominance of these few stocks within the index.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Nvidia Drives S&P 500 Market Cap Surge with 36% ContributionThe price has reached our target, as mentioned yesterday, with a gain of +1.20%, approximately $60. The SPX has recorded a new all-time high and continues to gain. It may retest down to 5347 before pushing up to 5378. Overall, it could potentially reach 5320 if it stabilizes below 5347. As long as it trades above 5320, an uptrend towards 5423 is expected. Bullish Scenario: If the price trades above 5347, it will continue its bullish trend toward 5378, and above that, it could reach 5423. Bearish Scenario: If it stabilizes below 5347, it may drop to 5320. Stabilizing below 5320 on a 1-hour candle could lead to a decline to 5301. Pivot Line: 5347 Resistance Lines: 5378, 5400, 5423 Support Lines: 5320, 5302, 5260 The price is expected to move between the support level of 5320 and the resistance level of 5423. previous idea: Nvidia Drives S&P 500 Market Cap Surge with 36% Contribution in 2024 Shares of US-based chipmaker Nvidia Inc. have had a stellar 2024, soaring nearly 150% and reaching new all-time highs. This impressive performance has significantly contributed to the $4.49 trillion (12%) increase in the S&P 500’s market capitalization, which now stands at $47.16 trillion. Nvidia’s remarkable gains have been a major driving force behind the S&P 500’s record-breaking achievements. The chipmaker's contribution alone accounts for 36% of the index’s market cap surge this year, highlighting its pivotal role in the broader market’s upward trajectory. In addition to Nvidia's impact, the S&P 500 has been bolstered by favorable economic indicators, including cooling jobs data, which has alleviated some inflationary pressures and supported continued market growth. As the S&P 500 hits new records, Nvidia's milestone of reaching a $3 trillion market cap underscores the significant influence of leading tech companies in shaping market trends and driving substantial gains across the board.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Analyzing NVDA's Breakout Patterns and Strategic Trading InsightDuring the last breakout, NVIDIA (NVDA) surged by 300 points before experiencing a sharp decline of 134 points within two days. This current situation bears a striking resemblance to the previous occurrence. Reaching 1282 would position NVDA as the most valuable company globally, contingent upon Microsoft's valuation. I possess additional market capitalization levels for comparison with Microsoft. I anticipate NVDA's final ascent towards becoming the world's most valuable company, followed by a significant pullback. This scenario echoes Tesla's (TSLA) behavior when it announced its first stock split: a substantial run-up leading into the split date, followed by a rapid 30%+ decline over a few days. Currently, I hold long call options for the upcoming day. I purchased 1200C on Monday, sold the majority, and retained one position overnight. My plan is to transition to put options when NVDA reaches the 1282-1300 level. Trade Idea: 1200P 6/14 at 1282.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by KevinBurrows
1
$SPY update 5%+ correction then retest of highsOriginally I was thinking that we'd see a move to the $480 support after testing the highs, however, because we haven't fallen yet, the chart no longer supports that view. Instead, I think the most likely scenario is that we fall on or after Wednesday 5/29 back to the low $500 area, then we go back to test the highs at $530. The retest of $530, will setup the lower high which will start the bear market. So basically there's one more chance to buy the dip in the low $500s, ride that back to the highs, and then you'll want to be a seller from July onwards. Let's see how it plays out.
AMEX:SPY
by benjihyam
14
S&P500 Short-term accumulation before strong rise.The S&P500 index (SPX) has turned sideways since practically May 16 and, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), is consolidating. Even though this consolidation is taking place at the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up (Fibonacci 0.0 - 0.236 range), it is similar in some way to the accumulation of April - May 2023 (also a little like November - December 2023), which was again supported by the 1D MA50. As a result, as long as the price remains above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which provided the crucial Support on April 19 and started the recovery from the -6.65% decline, we expect a similar Channel Up to start when the accumulation ends. Our short-term Target is 5500 (top of 1.5 year Channel Up). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
SPx (JOB OPPERTIOUNITIES) Strong Volatile Technical Analysis of SPx The price dropped from the price we mentioned in the previous idea and already stabilized under the support line which is 5260, so it is possible to touch 5226 and 5193 as well, Bearish Scenario: As long as the price remains below 5260, it is likely to decline towards 5226. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 5260, potentially pushing up to 5302. If the price surpasses this level, it may indicate the start of a new bullish trend of about 5347. Pivot Line: 5260 Resistance Levels: 5301, 5321, 5350 Support Levels: 5226, 5193, 5170 Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5193 and the resistance at 5320.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX Short Term Bearish: RSI Divergence, Doji, Hindenburg OmenThe S&P500 looks bearish in the short term. There is a bearish RSI divergence in the weekly and daily chart, with price increasing and RSI decreasing. The weekly momentum is slowing down. The weekly doji candle on 20 May can indicate a local top and the beginning of a short-term correction. The triggering of the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome signifies increased risk in the markets. The expected rate cuts in 2024 can cause the market to have a short-term negative reaction, as happened before by 35% around the 2019 Fed Pivot, 58% in 2007 and 51% in 2000. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently an 18.5% probability of a rate cut at the 31 July FOMC meeting and a 65.7% probability at the 18 September meeting. The closing below the 21W EMA can act as confirmation. A potential bottom can be a wick towards the future 200W EMA at around $4350, but the correction might not be as significant. A long term bullish perspective remains, with a potential significant uptrend starting in November - December 2024 due to rate cuts and increased liquidity. Not financial advice, do your own research, do not take any actions based on this idea.
SP:SPX
by dumcom
SPx-Stocks Set to Open Higher on Rate Cut Bets and Key Jobs DataStocks Poised to Open Higher Amid Increased Rate Cut Bets and Key U.S. Jobs Data U.S. rate futures indicate a 0.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy meeting later this month and a 14.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July meeting. The highlight of the upcoming week will be the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for May. Additionally, market participants will be closely monitoring other economic data releases, including U.S. JOLTs Job Openings, Factory Orders, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Exports, Imports, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesale Inventories, and the Unemployment Rate. Technical Analysis of SPx The price is likely to attempt to reach 5306, after which it is expected to follow a bearish trend towards 5260. Overall, the price is anticipated to consolidate between 5306 and 5261 until a breakout occurs. Bearish Scenario: If the price remains below 5306, it is likely to decline towards 5260. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 5320, potentially pushing up to 5347. If the price surpasses this level, it may indicate the start of a new bullish trend with further gains. Pivot Line: 5305 Resistance Levels: 5320, 5347, 5390 Support Levels: 5260, 5226, 5193 Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5260 and the resistance at 5320.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi