SPX (S&P 500 Index)
SPX: strongly optimisticThe S&P 500 had another steady up-trend week, reaching a new all time highest level on Friday, after the US unemployment data were released. At the level of 5.567 the index is also ending the week, which represents a 0.54% increase from the previous close, and a 16.7% increase for the year. The index opened the week at 5.475 and showed a consistent upward trend. The performance could be attributed to a combination of released economic data and investors sentiment. The unemployment rate in the US reached 4.1% in May and was by 0.1 percentage points higher from the previous month, which gave a signal to investors that the Fed might cut rates in September, as inflator pressures should further slowdown amid weakness in the jobs market.
Aside from released data which investors are treating as positive, there was also positive news from the companies included in the index, which additionally boosted investors sentiment. Tesla had a very good week, whose shares rose by more than 27% for the week. With this gain, Tesla managed to wipe out incurred losses during the year. Strong increase in the price of shares was supported by the reported Q2 vehicle deliveries which were highly above investors estimates. The other tech companies also performed on a positive side, where Apple shares were traded higher by 2%, reaching their all time highest levels. Still, the market's beloved share, Nvidia slid by 2%, on the report over limited growth potential for the chipmaker. Still, Nvidia is ending the week relatively flat.
BRIEFING Week #27: Further Pulling the ElasticHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: 3 Best looking bull bars very late in the trend, breaking above two strong resistance lines. 75% that this is a bull trap and we break down Mo/Tu below 5580 and be on our way to test the daily 20ema and the lower bull wedge/channel line. Will short this on weakness on Monday. Next 500-1000 points are made to the downside. Can I be wrong? Absolutely and everything can and will happen in the markets. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Yadayadayada.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls got their retest as written and now market is technically free to have a major trend reversal. June was a perfect bull trend from the beginning of the month. Market had 3 legs up with a two legged correction completed now. We could spend more time at the highs in a trading range or have a deeper pullback from here, which is my preferred path forward. The bull trend line will probably be tested around 5460 and there market will decide if it wants to stay above 5400 or get down to 5320/5350.
comment: Market tested 5500 twice and since it found no sellers down there, bears stepped aside and bulls printed 3 climactic bull bars very very late in this trend. The odds that this is a legit breakout above multiple resistance lines is very low. Much more likely is a bull trap and market will reverse over the next 1-5 days.
current market cycle: Bull trap and the end of this trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback and we will form a trading range where the low is 5000.
key levels: 5500 - 5630
bull case: Bulls see this AI bubble as legit and markets can only go up. Breaking above the bull trend line from 2023-01 is ok bc Daddy Jensen is signing breasts. That the markets are only held by 7 stocks is also a big buy signal since most eco indicators are puking.
Don’t know what to tell you here. Market can obviously go much higher for longer and we can print a couple of higher highs. But I will never join the “this time it’s different” crowd. The only sure thing before bubbles popping is that markets print more and more ridiculous highs while more and more people say “it’s really different this time” and they always popped and always will. That’s the nature of the game. Am I saying you should short this right now? No. Do you want to buy this at 5621? If your answer is yes, I do hope you make money, enjoy my letter and take something from it.
Invalidation is below 5580.
bear case: 16 Month old bull trend line and couple of more where market want’s to break above on low volume and declining economic activity across the board. Good luck with that. Will never buy into the frenzy. Bull trap most likely and I want to see strong selling before joining. Bears first target is 5500 and shortly after probably the gap close to 5430.
Invalidation is above 5630.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral until bears get follow through and print lower lows below 5500. I’d short to 5490 and see how market reacts to the daily ema. If the support is weak, more shorting to 5450ish. Absolutely no interest in buying here.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5521 and now we are at 5621. Meh outlook. Was bearish if market would go below 5500 but it never did, so nothing lost or gained here.
short term: Most likely outcome for me is a bull trap above 5600 and we will see a correction over the next weeks. I wait for bear strength before shorting. I will only continue to buy quick momentum scalps if we continue upwards.
medium-long term: Bearish if the latest climactic top turns out to be a trap and we trade below 5580 again. If so, we will see a bigger correction down to at least 5450 in the near term and likely also 5300. Still think 5000 will be hit in 2024.
current swing trade: None
Chart update: Removed the smaller two legged correction and added another bull gap highlighter. Double top did obviously not hold but I still think this is a bull trap and a bigger two legged move sideways to down is more likely.
This is not the end of the bull marketThe S&P 500 closed at a new high last week, indicating strong upward momentum. In terms of macroeconomic data, June's ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 (previously 53.8), below the consensus of 52.5. This signals a weakening in the services sector, which might impact investor sentiment in the short term.
On the other hand, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for June came in at 206,000, exceeding the consensus of 190,000 but below the previous reading of 218,000. Despite this, the data positively influenced the market as it brought the prospect of an interest rate cut by the Fed closer. Private sector employment stood at 136,000, below expectations of 160,000, which was interpreted as a sign that the Fed might be more inclined to ease monetary policy.
Seasonal Prospects
We are currently in a seasonally favorable period for the market, which could last until mid-July. Historical data indicate the potential for further gains, supported by seasonal analysis and technical signals.
Risk Pricing and Sentiment
The market currently prices in a 72% chance of the first rate cut in September. Additionally, 67% of retail investors hold short positions, which, from a contrarian perspective, is positive for further gains as potential short covering could drive stock prices higher.
Seasonal Prospects
We are currently in a seasonally favorable period for the market, which could last until mid-July. Historical data indicate the potential for further gains, supported by seasonal analysis and technical signals.
Risk Pricing and Sentiment
The market currently prices in a 72% chance of the first rate cut in September. Additionally, 72% of retail investors hold short positions, which, from a contrarian perspective, is positive for further gains as potential short covering could drive stock prices higher.
S&P 500 Returns After 20 or More All-Time Highs at Midpoint of the Year
The table shows that the S&P 500 market typically performs well after achieving numerous all-time highs by mid-year. Historically, these years end with positive returns for the full year.
S&P 500 Returns After >10% YTD at Midpoint of the Year
The data indicates that years with over 10% YTD returns by mid-year often continue positive trends throughout the rest of the year, resulting in significant gains by year-end.
Nonfarm Payrolls and Job Market Data
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000, although revisions for previous months lowered these figures by 111,000. Despite this, the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a strong job market.
AAII Member Sentiment on Stock Market Direction
A significant portion of AAII members are bullish about the market direction over the next 6 months, with bullish sentiment higher than historical averages.
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the Week Beginning July 08, 2024
In the upcoming week, earnings reports from several significant companies, such as PepsiCo, Delta, and JPMorgan Chase, are expected, which may significantly impact market sentiment.
S&P 500 Earnings Growth for Calendar Year 2025
Projections indicate the highest earnings growth in the information technology and healthcare sectors, with more moderate growth in other sectors such as real estate and consumer staples.
Growth in Disposable Income and Compensation vs. Inflation
The growth in disposable income and compensation exceeds inflation, indicating increased purchasing power for consumers.
Consumer Spending Trends
Consumer spending is rising steadily and remains above trend despite economic fluctuations.
S&P 500 vs. Rising 10-Year Treasury Yield Strategy
The current situation indicates stability in the bond market and continued growth in the S&P 500 index. The lack of a signal to switch to cash suggests that the stock market is in good condition, allowing investors to benefit from the rising market while monitoring bond yields for future warning signals.
Key Economic Events in the Coming Week
Next week, several key economic events are expected, which could influence the markets:
Current market conditions suggest further potential gains for S&P500. Despite some concerns about the labor market, overall sentiment, seasonal support, and technical indicators point to a continuation of the upward trend. It will be essential to monitor further macroeconomic data and Fed decisions, which will be crucial for future market movements.
AMD 200 BY SEPTEMBER !AMD Long 200 BY SEPTEMBER
Forecast: According to Long Forecast, AMD’s stock price is expected to start September 2024 at around $174 and reach a maximum of $177, with an average price of approximately $167 by the end of the month. This projection suggests a -5.7% change from the initial value.
PandaForecast: The weighted average target price per AMD share for September 2024 is $151.81, with a possible monthly volatility of 6.201%. The pessimistic target level is $146.28, while the optimistic target level is $155.95.
Personal Finance Freedom: Their forecast indicates an average price of $170 for September 2024, reflecting an expected increase of approximately 14.8% during that month.
StockScan: The average price target for AMD stock in 2024 is $180.52, with a high forecast of $227.30 and a low forecast of $133.74. This represents a +10.14% change from the last recorded price of $163.90.
S&P 500 / Key Price Levels and Scenarios Amid NFP ImpactS&P 500 Analysis: Navigating Volatility with Key Price Levels and Scenarios Amid NFP Impact
The S&P 500 currently faces a significant supply zone between 5525 and 5550, having recently hit a new all-time high at 5550. Despite this, the broader outlook remains bullish, especially after stabilizing above the previous resistance level of 5525. However, the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is poised to significantly impact the market.
Bullish Scenario:
To maintain the bullish momentum, the price needs to break through the supply zone and continue upward towards 5635. A 4-hour candle closing above 5550 would indicate a continued uptrend for the following week.
Bearish Scenario:
Conversely, if the price drops and stabilizes below 5525, it would signal a bearish trend, potentially leading to declines towards 5491 and 5460.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5550 - 5525
Resistance Levels: 5590, 5620, 5645
Support Levels: 5491, 5460, 5440
Today's Expected Trading Range:
Today's trading range is anticipated to be between the resistance at 5635 and the support at 5460.
NFP Scenarios:
- Previous Result: 272K
- Expectation: 191K
If the NFP release is less than 191K, the indices are likely to follow a bullish scenario. Conversely, a result exceeding 191K, particularly around 250K, would likely lead to a bearish scenario.
In summary, the market's direction hinges on the NFP results and critical price levels. Monitoring these key levels and the NFP report will be crucial for navigating the S&P 500's volatility.
S&P warning signs are mounting; not a "game over" yetPrice formed a reversal pattern on the daily chart. But is it "game over" for the buyers? Watch video to learn more
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
S&P500 Shifted to new bullish pattern. 5750 next.The S&P500 index (SPX) made a major bullish break-out in accordance to our previous analysis (June 17, see chart below), where we clearly stated that a break above the 1.5-year (Fibonacci) Channel Up pattern it would indicate a transition to a new (blue) Channel Up:
As you can see that happened and the index is extending that blue Channel, with the long-term prevailing pattern now being the dashed Channel Up. Technically it appears that the price is rising straight after finishing a Cup consolidation structure that is no stranger to it as we've seen it another two times, always leading in the end either to a 2.383 Fibonacci extension target or around +30% rise from the top.
On the current Bullish Leg, the 2.382 Fibonacci extension comes much lower than a potential +30% rise from the April 19 bottom, so as mentioned on our previous analysis, we will be targeting (this time slightly lower) at 5750. If the 2.382 Fib breaks and we close a 1W candle above it, we will extend buying all the way to +30%, i.e. just above 6300.
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to 5549 area (Wave "3").Dear Colleagues, I believe that price will continue its upward movement to the 5549 area. I think that now the wave "3" of the higher order continues its active development.
Possible correction in wave "2" to the area of 5369.9.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
2024-07-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes - SP500 and Nasdaq outdid themselves today again. You still can’t convince me this is another breakout above. SP500 is still marginally higher and it’s a trading range at the highs. Nasdaq broke above the bull wedge and channel and I absolutely expect it to fail over the next 1-5 days and trade down below 20000.
Commodities - Gold had a huge bull break above previous support and above the upper triangle line. The pullback tested that line and market held above. If bulls confirm this tomorrow, we will see 2400 and probably higher again. Oil printed a lower high below 84 but bears would need strong selling from here on and a lower low below 82 to confirm it. Oil could trade more sideways before another breakout to either side.
Bitcoin continued perfectly inside the bear trend and dropped below 60000 again. Bulls might try one more time to get above 62000 but if this one fails, decent chance we will test 50000 next. It’s a strong sell the rip market and you should not look to buy.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Strong follow through for the bulls since bears could not keep it below 5580. Made a new ath but still not above 5600. Bulls were strong enough that we can expect 5600 to print at least once. Can they get another push up? I have no idea. Still inside the margins of this trading range at the top but I won’t rule out that we can’t print 5650 or higher. Today’s data was really bad but market did not care. No reason why it should turn around tomorrow on low volume or on a Friday. I won’t get tired writing it. If you are bullish at this stage of this bull cycle, no one can help you. Not saying you should not get long on days like today but your long term longs should have a tight stops. Once the euphoria vanishes, it will go down fast when everyone will look for the exit. It’s as unsustainable as it gets.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
key levels: 5560 - 5600
bull case: Bulls want to keep the party going and if they can stay above the 1h 20ema, they could do another leg up. No deeper reasoning here. If big green bars appear again, buy.
Invalidation is below 5560.
bear case: No idea if bears step aside for another leg. Can see this turning here after more sideways movement. I would not expect big swings on a US holiday tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 5610.
short term: Neutral af again. At multiple resistances I won’t do anything. Will look for longs on strong buying near the 1h ema or the lower bull wedge line. If bears appear, need a break of both mentioned before shorting.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy anything. 5m 20ema was your guide today. Could have literally bought any touch.
FewEveryone senses there is something coming, but nobody knows what it is. Regardless the markets will correct massively, technically because we haven't had a 0.61 fib correction in a decade, secondly because the bags are too heavy and everyone is bagholding, we need to shake those who call themselves diamond hands at +50% price discounts, i.e. cheaper prices.
Capital is excessively cheap, Attention is overpriced. Manual Labor is underpriced we are living in a bubble state, some call it 'the everything bubble'.
Call me bubble boy, chicken little, i don't care.
A Nuke is coming.
S&P 500: Navigating Volatility with Key Price levels & ScenariosS&P 500 Analysis: Navigating Volatility with Key Price Levels and Scenarios
Stability under the pivot line which is 5525 means there will be a bearish trend toward 5491, but still has a bullish volume to get 5549. so above it means will start a new all-time high
Bullish Scenario:
Stability above 5525 means it will reach 5550 and should be stabilized above 5550 to continue the bullish trend around 5600.
Bearish Scenario:
Stability under 5525 means will drop to get 5510 and 5491, and ADP will affect on the market today and it's possible to get 5460 as well, by closing 4h candle under 5491
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5525
- Resistance Levels: 5550, 5585, 5620
- Support Levels: 5491, 5460, 5440
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The anticipated trading range for today is between the resistance at 5550 and the support at 5491.
Is this a wedge I see before me?I have noticed that the rally since 2022 lows is forming itself into a decent rising wedge pattern on the SPX.
There is also a small RSI divergence in place that has since migrated to the hourly time frames.
This could be indicative.
There is also a disappointing looking NFP report in the pipeline this week.
I have no active trade, and I will not take a position on this until it confirms (likely to be later in the month if it does confirm) however, I believe that the pattern here which has 3 touchpoints at resistance and 3 touchpoints at support (suggesting the pattern is well defined) warrants attention from traders.
Watch out and trade safe!
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-02-2024Yesterday, S&P had a moderate gain. But during ETH session traders are testing yesterday's Low.
Level to watch : 5512 ---5514
News to watch:
9:30 AM US: Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM US:JOLTS
SPx / Strong Pivot Line at 5460 Key to Navigating VolatilityS&P 500 Analysis: Navigating Volatility with Key Price Levels and Scenarios
The price has reached the support line at 5460 and is now experiencing bullish volume towards 5491. However, consolidation is expected between 5460 and 5491 until a breakout occurs.
Intraday Analysis:
The price is likely to consolidate between 5460 and 5491 until a decisive break in either direction.
Bullish Scenario:
Stability above 5460 suggests a move towards 5491. For the bullish trend to continue, the price must stabilize above 5491.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price remains below 5460, it is expected to decline towards 5440. A break below 5440 would signal a further bearish trend, potentially reaching 5410.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5460
- Resistance Levels: 5491, 5525, 5550
- Support Levels: 5440, 5410, 5375
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The anticipated trading range for today is between the resistance at 5505 and the support at 5410.
BRIEFING Week #26 : Binary Mode Still Active...Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P SpreadsNavigating frothiness in US equities requires both caution and tact. With the S&P 500 nearing its all-time high amid flashing recession signals, investors must be vigilant with volatility during upcoming earnings season, driven by outsized expectations.
This paper explores the persistent recession indicators and forces at play during upcoming earnings. The paper posits a spread trade using CME’s Micro E-Mini futures (Long S&P 500 and Short Russell 2000) to maintain upside potential with reduced downside risk.
RECESSION RISKS PERSIST AS RATES REMAIN HIGH
On Friday, the PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred gauge) showed inflation cooling to 2.6% in May, in line with expectations. Price pressures are slowly abating.
Numbers aside, the broader economic landscape presents a complex picture.
Signals from the job market point to unemployment claimants at a record high for the past two and a half year with job openings shrinking drastically. Personal earnings were higher than anticipated in May (0.5% vs 0.4%), but spending was below expectations. Consumers are being more cautious. Mint Finance covered these nuances in a previous paper .
Housing is flashing weakness as new housing starts hit a four-year low in May. Soaring prices and steep mortgage rates are weighing on demand.
The Fed’s policy path remains unconfirmed. However, consensus point to a rate cut as early as September. Even if that happens, rates are expected to decline gradually.
Source: CME FedWatch
Despite risk of recession, the S&P 500 has had an exemplary showing this year, trading near their all-time high. YTD performance of 15% in 2024 has been far higher than the 74-year average of 4%.
Yet, the performance has been increasingly top-heavy. Nvidia, Apple, and the rest of the tech titans have contributed much of the gains in the broad S&P500 index as it is market cap weighted. The index is heavily reliant on and sensitive to the performance of these mega-caps.
The equal-weighted S&P 500 index is up only by 4% in sharp contrast. The spread between the S&P 500 and its equal-weighted counterpart is near its highest point since 2008. The spreads between the S&P 500 and both the Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap indexes have reached multi-decade highs.
Outperformance was re-affirmed after the recent earnings season. Mega-caps crushed EPS and revenue expectations and reported phenomenal guidance while other stocks, especially utility and energy sector reported revenue and EPS figures below estimates according to FactSet report .
Rallies in mega-cap stocks are being driven by idiosyncratic tailwinds, such as advancements in AI. Meanwhile, slowing consumer spending in the US is raising concerns for the broader market.
RISK OF SHARP CORRECTION WARRANTS SPREAD POSITION
According to FactSet , Q1 earnings season was positive. Only 19% of firms reported earnings below expectations. Actual average EPS YoY growth for the index was 5.9% (above 3.4% expected as of March 31).
Frothiness in the equity market is palpable. Consistent outperformance by mega caps is baked into investor expectations. Strong earnings are already factored into prices, as evidenced by the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 28.38x (far higher than the 10-year average of 20x translating to a 42% above average earnings expectations). Average P/E ratio in the best performing tech sector is even higher at 37.47x.
Even minor shortfalls in guidance or revenue/earnings can lead to significant corrections in such a climate. The FactSet reports that 31.8% of firms which beat earnings EPS estimates by up to +5% saw average price decline of -0.9%.
Source: FactSet Research
In fact, overall, positive earnings only drove a 0.9% increase in price (1% 10Y historical average) while a negative earnings report led to 2.8% drop (-2.3% 10Y historical average).
Source: FactSet Research
Market frothiness elevates risk of a sharp price correction in single names during Q2 earnings. Analysts are concerned as expectations for Q2 EPS YoY growth have been lowered from 9% on 31/March to 8.8% as of 22/June.
Despite this, mega-caps remain in solid position. Robust demand for AI, buoyant advertising revenue, globalized revenue streams, and substantial market dominance have positioned them to continue growing at a disproportionate rate.
In case the upcoming Q2 results pan out similarly to Q1 in favor of mega-caps, the S&P 500 will continue to outperform the broader market indices.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The S&P 500, with its high concentration of mega-cap stocks, is likely to perform better than broader market indices in the coming earnings season. However, recession signals are also flashing.
The S&P 500 does not perform well during recessions. Over the last four recessions, it has declined an average of -14%. Comparatively the spread between S&P 500/Russell 2000 spread has increased 1.7%.
The S&P 500/Russell 2000 spread has also outperformed during the six-month preceding recessions.
Given the S&P 500-Russell 2000 spread's historical outperformance during recessions, a spread position presents less downside risk compared to an outright long position in the S&P 500.
This strategy also maintains a bullish outlook on the top-heavy S&P 500's potential to outperform in the upcoming season.
Moreover, the spread trade preserves the upside potential in the ongoing rally, as its performance has been comparable to an outright long position in the S&P 500.
A view on the spread between the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 can be expressed using CME Micro E-Mini Equity futures. At 1/10th the size of the full-size E-mini futures, the Micro contracts allow for smaller trades with more granular exposure.
A long position in the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures expiring in September (MESU2024) can be offset by a short position on 2 x Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 futures expiring in September (M2KU24). This position is highly margin-efficient as CME offers margin credit for this spread.
Hypothetical trade set up in summary requires entry at 2.69x, with a target at 2.78x coupled with stop loss at 2.6x.
The simulated payoffs are described below.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
2024-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes - Quick one today because markets did the obvious thing and we learned nothing from this trading session.
Commodities - Gold is not worthy to be written about today. Oil was bullish as expected to 83.40 and 84/84 were my targets for many weeks now. Bulls can do some more here but it should not go much above 84. Best bears can hope for here is sideways.
Bitcoin broke strongly above the bear trend line but failed at the daily 20ema. Bears need to keep it below 64000 or we will see much higher prices again. Can short this once we trade back below 62400.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Market has the daily 50% pb almost exactly at Friday’s close. You do not need to analyse this deeper. Market is in balance and 5523ish is the fair/agreed price. Prominent tails above and below bars, tells you that it’s a trading range and you should buy low and sell high.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
Smaller tf = trading range
key levels: 5500 - 5550
bull case: Market is in balance. Bulls need break above 5550.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears need break below 5500 and preferably a daily close below.
Invalidation is above 5550.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Use small position size and wide stops to scale in. Best trades though were selling the expanding triangle bar 30-34 where market should clear resistance 5537 and that was also the us open price and we just sold off for 30 points. Next trade was the bar 41 entry bar after a very good signal bar 40. Buying near 5000 was almost a no brainer but since bar 37 was so big an climactic, I hesitated as well.
SPX: correction in H2 2024?During the past week, the SPX had some notable movements. The index closed at 5.460 on Friday, marking a slight decline of 0.11% within the week after a dip of 0.41% on Friday. Friday's trading session came with strong volatility after the release of PCE data. The trading range was between levels of 5.522 and 5.452. The inflation in May, measured through PCE, was standing at 2.6%, the lowest annual rate within the last three years. At the same time, the University of Michigan sentiment figures were better from market forecast, rising to 68.2.
Overall the markets technical indicators remain mixed, with some analysts suggesting a potential for continued bullish momentum, while others note the risks of overbought conditions. Analysts from JPMorgan in their mid-year outlook, noted a challenging environment for the continuation of the stock bull market, which was generally supported by several stocks within the tech industry. Still, JPMorgan did not change their target for S&P 500 for this year, which is 4.200. The bank estimates that the short reversal in the stock market might be expected during the second half of 2024. They have also noted that the strong rise in indices in a Q4 of 2023 was supported by the expectations on four Fed's rate cuts during the course of 2024, which has not occurred.
Despite the recent drop, the S&P 500 index has shown impressive performance over the year.
SPX500USD ( UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE ) ( 1H )SPX500USD
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency the price stabilizing below turning level at 5,488 , indicates under bearish pressure
PRICE MOVEMENT :
the price stabilizing below turning level at 5,488 , indicates to reach a support level, have two condition to reach this level , first condition corrective 5,488 before dropping to 5,438 , the second condition in a direct manner reach around 5,378 ,
if the breaking turning level at 5,488 , the price of the spx500usd reach a new historical peak , but reaches the resistance level early around 5,524 , after create new resistance level at 5,561
TARGET LEVEL :
TURNING LEVEL : 5,488
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 5,524 , 5,561
SUPPORT LEVEL : 5,438 , 5,378
#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls will probably retest the highs or even make a higher high soon. First pullbacks / low 1, is a buy signal in a bull trend. After that retest, I - again, have nothing for the bulls. We are at the peak of this bubble imo and that’s where you get cautious and not even more bullish. Nvidia will touch 100 over the next weeks, if not days.
comment: Bulls got their retest as written and now market is technically free to have a major trend reversal. June was a perfect bull trend from the beginning of the month. Market had 3 legs up with a two legged correction completed now. We could spend more time at the highs in a trading range or have a deeper pullback from here, which is my preferred path forward. The bull trend line will probably be tested around 5460 and there market will decide if it wants to stay above 5400 or get down to 5320/5350.
current market cycle: End of the bull trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback.
key levels: 5450 - 5600
bull case: Bulls made a perfect double top with a huge reversal bar on the daily chart. Not good for them but they still managed to close above 5500, which is still max bullish. If the market stays above 5500 and keeps the most recent bull gap to 5430 open, we could probably only continue further up to above 5600. I do think this is the lower probability path forward.
Invalidation is below 5400.
bear case: Market moved sideways on the week and the daily ema is only about 30 points away and will soon be hit. Last time bears crossed it, they went 60 points below it to form the current nearest bull trend line which I think will be hit next week too and there we will have the most important support for now. If bulls are done with this and want their profits secured, we will see a bigger market character change where rips will be sold and we make lower lows again. 5450 will be the big price to break for the bears, if they want more downside. Monday will be key imo.
Invalidation is above 5620.
outlook last week:
short term: Don’t get too bearish too soon. You never want to try to pick a top or a bottom. Let the big bois with endless money do that for you and follow along. Expecting another push for retest of the highs, followed by another leg down, as painted in my chart.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5534 and now we are at 5521. Retest of ath was 5585, outlook was perfect and good for 51 points.
short term: Neutral until bears get follow through and print lower lows below 5500. I’d short to 5490 and see how market reacts to the daily ema. If the support is weak, more shorting to 5450ish. Absolutely no interest in buying here.
medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. I gave 5600 months ago and we are close enough to it or will touch it next week (5587 was close enough imo). Afterwards the money is made on the downside. 5300 over the next 2-4 weeks, followed by 5000 over the summer. updated: the time span for 5300. Could take 2-4 weeks instead of 1-2
current swing trade: Did not enter shorts in a sideways moving market. I want a strong break below before shorting.
Chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect, I adjusted it to the Friday lower high, removed the minor bull wedge and channel and added the recent bull gap which will probably soon be closed.
SPY S&P 500 ETF revised Price Target for the end of the yearIf you didn't purchase SPY at the start of this year:
I initially set a price target of $540 at the beginning of this year, but upon reflection, I find that projection to have been overly cautious. I am now adjusting my forecast upward to $560. This revision stems from my belief that we are entering a significant supercycle in the stock market, particularly fueled by advancements in artificial intelligence technologies.
The current market conditions may prompt a temporary pullback due to levels of overbought assets. However, my overall outlook remains extremely optimistic about the broader market trajectory. I see continued strength and potential for growth, especially driven by the ongoing innovations and developments within the AI sector.
As investors navigate through potential short-term fluctuations, I maintain a bullish stance, anticipating robust performance and opportunities in the market as we progress through the year.
