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Spread

Short Hog Spread entered 1-22-15. $480 profit, $990 margin. What an extremely sharp move after a crossover deep below overbought range, right before a huge day on 1-30-15. I wish I could say that I rode this all the way up to it's top but I had a nice little profit at 10.875 and exited when it leveled off after it's strong open just over 11.000. Looking at it now, a trailing stop using the last 14 days Average True Range, which was .6220, I would've given it room to do it's thing and captured it's peak right at close, but that's $250 worth of wiggle room, and it could've gone against me too. For those of you tracking me, this was the recommendation I emailed out on 1-22-15. Trade 4212, 15/15 years profitable, $681 avg profit, which we caught 70.4%. But this is a spread that's been profitable historically for the next 17 days, until 2-19. So I'll be looking for a dip to do it again. Will you be with me?
CME:HEM2015Long
by Trendingup101
Bitstamp–BTC-e Spread Exhibits Deep StructureThere is a recurrent and long-standing pattern within the spread between these two exchanges. A few months before every "bubble" begins, the spread funnels itself into a tidy channel, which it essentially remains in until the price peaks, though displays no other internal order. There are also clearly other structural self-similarities. As you look back in time you see that the signal become noisier but, moving forward, these characteristics are emerging and becoming amplified with each new pass/cycle. —On another note, you can also see the effects from the "Mt. Gox" section were essentially like having a mini bubble and subsequent crash, inside the crash from the main bubble.— Deep market mechanisms must account for this behavior, and there will likely be much to infer from it. Obviously, for the current cycle, there is no way for me to draw the "correct" channel without knowing the future, so the existing one is merely illustrative.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by snowsilence
2
BTC/LTC Spread - no bottom yet I'm affraidWith the recent topping action in BTC it has been interesting and a little disappointing to watch LTC's outright failure. Indeed, Litecoin's inability to hold significant support levels has both broken its bullish bias and once again brought it's relevance as #2 to BTC into question. With this relationship continuing to decouple, I thought I would take a moment today and look at the historical relationship between the two to see if the spread's relationship (and really its trend) may hint at future expectations. Here then is a nice four hour chart of that spread (LTC/BTC) going back to last fall. Needless to say, it has been a very tough past six months for the bulls. A bear market is defined simply as lower highs and lower lows and that is basically what has transpired; especially so since the failure of the winter trading range lows at .02124. The sky's did brighten a bit through the end of May as it looked like a capitulation bottom had been formed. After a two week consolidation, bull's hearts where broken once again as we have now broken through the bottom of that range. Price has now reached the original double bottom that started the meteoric rise late last November and the bulls are left to ponder if this old significant level is 'the bottom'. Unfortunately, until we stop making new lows and start making new relative highs, I can't make the bullish case here. Indeed, with the recent failure of the top of the original double bottom (.1625) three very real downside targets present themselves. 1. Bearish BoT target .01354 2. Gap at .00913 3. 200% extension of the winter trading range failure: .00716 So what can we infer from this rather negative outlook? Here are a few of my thoughts: While attractive, there is no long trade on this spread at the moment. One could argue that bear "BoT' setups (a way to play bear ab=cd harmonic price patterns) are perfectly realistic into stated downside targets. Until we start to see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, bulls must sit and wait. Cheers all and hope it helps If my charts help you, or you use my indicators... please consider a BTC donation to allow me to continue my work : 1EBttA56cWsgtsZn83VGiNT8si7inZV5Z5 & follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor
L
by CRInvestor
3