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Spike

Spike Trade ExampleThis morning on the jobs report the S&P 500 futures spike in the premarket to a new All Time High but quickly shot back down. This triggers my indicator and an alert withing Tradingview to come check the price action and yields a potential trading opportunity. The risk is defined by the + at the top of the spike. Fundamentally, if the market makes a new ATH the trade is wrong and should be exited. If this volatility spike reveals a top then the trade should hold and the lower + represents a 3-to-1 reward-to-risk target from the entry on a pullback to the red median line. These + indicators are tools for defining the risk and reward of the trading opportunity. Technical Analysis would give potential Retracement Levels. The first Retracement Level at 4505 happens to yield the desired 3-to-1 target as indicated. The longer term Retracement Level at 4450 could be a more ambitious target for more reward or to allow a partial position to continue after reaching the first target.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by norok
Why you still need to take profits in BitcoinFollowing long happy trends where everyone enjoys easy gains often follows hard consolidations where lacking discipline will cause traders to burn capital. That does not mean traders have to fully ignore the market during consolidations. The wise way to approach them is to be dispassionate and take opportunities with structured risk and target levels. This is a followup to my Friday Livestream where I acknowledged my bearish sentiment in BITFINEX:BTCUSD had me miss a key Resistance turned Support which also setup a volatility spike trade on the 30m timeframe right at said level. Price held the Major Retracement level to achieve a 3-to-1 reward/risk trade. At which point a wise trader could have cut their position and left on a remaining long position to allow for a bullish continuation. Price came back to entry following the profit level which would have put the trade in peril... but since profit was taken even a loss of the remainder would still yield an overall net positive trade. The trader would not have needed to move their stop from the initial level to maintain the position for today's pump. Be mindful that the recent highs are still not broken and Bitcoin continues to trade within this range. Trade wisely!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by norok
Ethereum setting up breakout shortThe 60 minute chart of BITFINEX:ETHUSD created a support here around 3150 in the middle of a rising consolidation. Breaking the spike low would break the support, break the lower bounds of the flag pattern, and confirm an Ichimoku cloud breakout. These are three ways using different indications to identify a potential breakout. I dislike when charts get too cluttered but at the cost of having a very busy chart I wanted to demonstrate the methods in a single idea. Choose a method or indicator that makes sense to you as a trader and then study it to mastery.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by norok
1
PGNY at 50%NASDAQ:PGNY is a stock that I have been in for over a year. It is a rare case where I have a fundamental bias (rather than technical to start) as a friend clued me into it June 2020. The fundamental case for this company is that they offer fertility services and their "moat" is that already have many deals with Fortune 500 companies that offer fertility packages in compensation to workers to delay parenthood in favor of careers. With the research showing that the trend is continuing that women are delaying family in favor of career I believe this company is a strong hold for the coming decade. It is now providing a technical setup with a short term risk defined entry. I have been waiting for such an opportunity after watching the last year's run.
NASDAQ:PGNYLong
by norok
Hedging with short JPMWhen the market reached a (new) All Time High earlier today I wanted to get some short Delta in my positions. I learned my lesson during the 'recent unpleasantness' bottom of 7/19 that being all net long puts one at risk of volatility in a portfolio... even if the positions themselves individually remain strong and profitable. This morning's volatility setup a good short entry on NYSE:JPM that by looking at futures this evening should hedge against tomorrow's potential downside.
NYSE:JPMShort
by norok
1
Hedging with short DVNWhen the market reached a (new) All Time High earlier today I wanted to get some short Delta in my positions. I learned my lesson during the 'recent unpleasantness' bottom of 7/19 that being all net long puts one at risk of volatility in a portfolio... even if the positions themselves individually remain strong and profitable. This morning's volatility setup a good short entry on NYSE:DVN that by looking at futures this evening should hedge against tomorrow's potential downside. Earnings are close so I may need to de-risk next week before.
NYSE:DVNShort
by norok
1
UBER Price Action AnalysisI was looking at a trade today for a member of my social media. NYSE:UBER looks to have stalled at 52.35 which is right at the 50% Retracement of the recent down move. This if following a retracement of the last bull trend which was around the same zone as the IPO first weeks' price action highs. Price could in the short term retrace down to retest the 5/10/21 low but would remain bullish as long as that low holds. Breaking the 6/28/21 high would be a sign of a bullish breakout.
NYSE:UBERShort
by norok
SPY Sentiment Signal BearishEvery day I scan the market for individual stocks within the S&P 500 index AMEX:SPY for short term volatility either bullish or bearish. I have begun compiling these signals into a derivative indicator. This morning's score was a -11. The last time the indicator signaled -11.20 was on 4/16/2021 which preceded a few days of downside in the market. This morning's price action made a slight try to get up and test the All Time High but seems to be failing. The first part of the day's down move has retraced to the 50% Retracement level of the day. It is worth taking a short here to test my signal, play the day's price action, and benefit from an asymmetric reward/risk. A failure to retest the last ATH could have much downside.
AMEX:SPYShort
by norok
5
Autozone Post EarningsNYSE:AZO triggered a spike alert this morning on earnings announcement. Price action is at a support and worth a buy to play back to the top of the range and beyond. As an aside, used car prices have increased dramatically in the last few months due to the shortage of new car inventory coming to market. Some of this is due to material costs and companies like Ford NYSE:F have been reported to be having backlog due to computer chip shortages. These market forces are compounded by inflation.
NYSE:AZOLong
by norok