SPY, Which support will stand a chance against new black swan?Hi, traders.
My name is Lukas and I am a beginner in trading, respectively, I only trade 6 months. But that means I have to do the necessary analyzes without it I can't trade. I want to show you how I work on myself and document my beginnings. I use Vix and my strategy is built on to return to average. I highlight the important support levels and resistances that flow from the volume profile, all drawn on graph. These zones determine the ability to respond in some way to the market from 1 to 3, with 1 being the largest.
Short description of analysis:
We are experiencing negative records that have never been here before. Let us be grateful that we are experiencing something like this, because we will gain experience about markets that they do not even describe in 1000 books and movies. Back to analysis. We can see strong support zones that confirm that markets have already responded to these zones in the past. But we are in a very pessimistic period of time, where markets can fall 10% per day. Focus on long periods, even one year. We are looking for the bottom now, but we will rise soon.Of course, my analysis does not serve like market forecasts and I am not responsible for your trades if you use my analysis for your own trades.
Spdr
S&P 500 Index (SPY) Still Not Too Low!
I noticed that some traders and investors have already started buying spy on discount assuming that the market has finally found its bottom.
BUT
Look at a daily chart:
key 2330 level still is not reached!
I still believe that the market can go lower and at least the underlined level will be tested, and who knows, pullback and next wave to the downside.
too early to change bias, folks. pay attention to inside bar formation on daily and look for a side of a breakout.
then act accordingly.
+ if you are still short biased, sell from the candle open of the last mother's bar. perfect trend continuation entry!
good luck!
S&P 500 Index (SPX500) May Go Much Lower! Key Levels To Note
buyers show their unwillingness to buy on dips.
the market went rejected after a minor retracement from 2888 support.
looks like selling volumes are accumulating and bears preparing for a breakout.
the best strategy for us to follow is to sell the breakouts of these key levels expecting a drop to the next one.
Key levels:
2744
2560
2343
note how perfectly structure matches with key levels.
good luck!
please, support the idea with like! thank you!
PULLBACK FOR GOLD OR ONE MORE PUSH?The region of 152.5 and 155.5 is extreme resistance for gold.
We do have a bearish divergence and resistance as well on the RSI.
Gold can either push one more leg up to the resistance are and then drop, or its possible it drops now and gets ready for this next leg up.
Anyhow looks like soon a retracement is coming.
$GOLD #XAUUSD finding a Buying Opportunity (Long Term Outlook)Gold is maneuvering its Price in a interesting Position. But if you are planning to open long Positions on Gold you should be patient rather than being fearful of missing out potential upside.
Almost everyone looking at the Gold Chart will spot the Bull Flag and will see this as a signal to jump on a long trade.
Such a decision definitely can be categorized under “Frontrunning Signals”. Technically we are in a downwards channel which statistically likes to break to the Upside but looking at some Indicators the Gold Price could retest some lower levels of Support before rising in price.
What is the Price doing right now:
trading around a support price of 1450
currently trading @ 0.236 Fib Retracement 1450
trading below the Weekly 10 EMA
grinding along the Weekly 20 EMA
grinding along a week rising support trendline
Weekly Stochastic is still heading downwards starting to dive into the bearish Control Zone
Weekly RSI trading below the EMA in the Middle of the Index
What potential lower level can be reached for a better Long Entry
Lower Trendline of the descending channel coming in at around 1430-1400
Weekly 50 EMA moving into the vicinity of the lower descending channel trendline also around the price of 1410
the 0.382 Fib retracement is at 1390
Big Support Area between 1370 - 1400
if we extend the lower trendline of the descending channel it will reach into the area of the 0.382 ib Retracement and other Supports mentioned above.
0.5 Fib Retracement around 1340 confluent with Major Support with 10 Jun 2019 Breakout
Weekly 200 EMA will trail into the vicinity of 1350
Just to be said even if the Gold Price would give you a opportunity to buy it at lower levels you are looking right now on a Weekly Timeframe so keep in mind that it could take time reaching your Designated Areas.
There will be bounces on the way which depending on your strategy used and Risk Management offer up some opportunity for some nice trades and keeping in mind all Key Support and Resistance levels from a Makro Point of view helps you to set your Risk Management.
Leave a Comment or ask your Questions & Trade Safe!
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You can copy and follow my trades on eToro
please visit koboltrading.com for more info about me
1D SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST Know Sure Thing Indicator StrategyFor traders who prefer simple trading strategies, the KST oscillator should be considered for evaluating:
Breakout trading signals.
Assessing the strength of a trend.
How to use the Know Sure Thing zero line to spot bullish and bearish momentum signals:
A buy signal is triggered when the Know Sure Thing crosses above the zero line. If the KST moving averages hold above the zero line, a bullish trend is confirmed.
A sell signal is triggered when the Know Sure Thing crosses below the zero line. If the KST moving averages hold below the zero line, a bearish trend is confirmed.
Breakouts are usually the primary source for generating momentum bursts. The natural law of price behavior shows that stocks, futures, Forex currencies, commodities and cryptocurrencies move in short-term momentum bursts. Price tends to move back and forth from equilibrium (consolidation) to disequilibrium (expansion).
S&P500 Will Drop Again?!
hey traders,
after a very strong selloff SPY has retraced and currently, the market is approaching a key level of resistance on daily.
On 1H chart the market is consolidating and coiling within a narrow trading range.
If bears break below the range, for us it will be a perfect signal of a bearish continuation and potential second bearish leg.
Target levels will be 2912 and 2882.
However, you can extend your second target to 2840.
Stop will be 2969.
*if the market closes above the range, setup will be invalid
Please, support the idea with like and comment! thank you!)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Going Lower | Clear SignalsLet's take another look at the SPY... I might not get the exact bounce length, but I always get the drop... And this one is dropping.
We see a new all-time high that is shy from a double top... As soon as this high was hit, you can see a break of EMA10, our main support.
With this little information, I can tell you that the SPY is done.
There is bearish divergence on the MACD and RSI, while the bearish volume has gone up...
This is just a friendly reminder...
The S&P 500... Is about to drop.
Namaste.
SPY SHORT: Double Top
though I have already shorted spy,
for now, there is another perfect selling setup for those who missed the trade.
on 4h chart the market has formed a classic double top pattern with lower high
and RSI divergence.
I trade this reversal pattern waiting for a bearish breakout of minor support beneath it.
T1 - 2945
T2 - 2900
Stop - 3028
SPY: Looks Bearish
hey traders,
though I have already shorted SPY following bearish gartley pattern.
for structure traders we now how a perfect confirmation.
the market has recently broken below the support line of a rising wedge
and rsi shows clear divergence.
I think that the recent gap well most likely close,
and then you can short the market.
T1 - 2940
T2 - 2880
Stop - 3040
S&P500 BE READY TO SELL
S&P500 currently consolidates around strong level of resistance 2940.
I am focused on 2895 minor structure support level.
If bears break and close below this level,
for me, it will be a signal to short the market.
T1 - 2860
T2 - 2805
*if the market closes above the resistance setup will be invalid.
XLF: Strong buy opportunity.The Financial Select Sector SPDR is trading within t 1D Channel Up (RSI = 64.631, MACD = 0.090, Highs/Lows = 0.4050) and todays pull back is only a technical reaction to the RSI approaching 70.000 on 4H. Both the MA50 and MA200 are supporting which is a very bullish development. Our TP is 29.10.
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SPY- The Most Important Week in a Decade
Bounce Complete, now lets Peg the top too.
I have decided to go with the pitchfork type drawing today to show that at the end of everything for a year and a half we have been oscillating around this ascending channel if you will. This channel is not a pattern of itself but it is following a bullish breakout that rose almost 100% in price over 6 years. Now, for a year and a half, a potential top is being put in on that breakout. This top almost broke down once before but got supported and so we are staying within our ascending consolidation. Ascending typically break down. The Odds are in our favor. We also have a three drive MONTHLY bearish divergence ... Just wow.
Make no mistake about it ... We are in deciding factor crucial moments right now. This is the bulls chance to take this to the finish line and power through the extreme barriers that lie above price. If they fail, to impulse out of this ascending pattern and hold above it then nature will most likely take its course. Unfortunately, the course of nature is to summon a cyclone of man-eating bears fueled by a perfect storm of external factors. And much like the Tasmanian devil this storm will rip down and up the chart whipping leveraged positions in and out of margin and thoroughly confusing bulls and bears alike.
The recent bounce that we received in the SPY will likely be the last significant bounce in a while as our chart shows that our bottom support in this ascending pitchfork channel could be tested very soon, just as fast as it went up to it very well could crash down. This would show us that market behavior is still erratic and volatile, just as it does when in a bear market.
On the Smaller time frames, we have a very aggresively slopped Ascending Wedge from this past week's impulsive buying. Though it was impulsive, that chart has shown us in the past that this type of volatile price action acts more as a consolidation to recharge its batteries and start impulsing big moves, like our plunge to Christmas. I anticipate a waterfall sell-off that simply burns a hole through the chart, as opposed to 'Melting Up' I think we have already topped. Today's price action made that pretty evident to me as we gapped up once again but dropped down fading not only the gap but yesterdays gap up as well. Thats impressive. Most probable IMO? To go down VERY SOON, and don't stop until it hits the 275 lows.
If the bearish scenario does take place please consider that this will affect many things in day to day life. I think that It would be wise to be prepared for life in America in another "recession" Living in the midwest, factories get hit hard and I know that my hometown will suffer mass layoffs once again. Oh, yeah and if companies have to downsize because of economic uncertainty this will affect the subsequent interest rate hikes based on their "formula and data."
Please take a moment to look at the most important trendline that can so so easily be overlooked, because it doesn't come out looking nice on a chart : (... the discrimination. With long term trendlines it's hard to know if you have them lined up perfectly or not, but I do like the confluence of this placement (Higher TF of 10 yr support below) If we drop much more in price from here then we will be in danger of living below that historic trendline and that will be the easy way of deciding if we are in a bull or bear market.. Under or above that 10-year support.
Ladies and Gentlemen: We are at THE precipice right now, what happens in this next week of trading could determine the next 10 years of the Global Economic Condition.
Please be protected, please be patient
SPY Long Term Trend AnalysisAs a trader, I have been trained to see things in probabilities because nobody can tell the future but over years through Technical Analysis and learning to trust my gut, I found that I can find the most probable outcomes with an 80% certainty. If you appreciate my analysis and would like to see more please give me a like, follow my page and I will keep you posted on future price action.