sell short for pullback 1 or 2 target up to youoverbought short term
up much coz of coolinginflation while the fED SAID NOTHING ABOUT
Sp500short
S&P500 at the Warning LineAccording to the Rules of the Medianlines (Pitchforks), there is a high potential of a reaction from the Warning Lines (here WL1).
On strong Trends, price will trade through it and down the the ML (Medianline).
Be prepared for both scenarios.
SP500- Doomed for a 500 points dropIn my yesterday analysis, I said that SP500 is facing a very strong sell zone above 4.1k and a drop is possible from now on.
CPI data triggered this drop and the index fell hard putting in an immense bearish engulfing on our daily chart.
I expect a resumption of the trend that started at the beginning of the year and is very possible for SP to visit the pre-pandemic high at 3.4k zone.
At this moment the price is 3950, just above confluence support given by the horizontal trend line and the rising trend line started in June and a corrective rally can follow.
This rally should be considered a good selling opportunity by traders and ONLY a break back above 4.2k would change this strongly bearish outlook
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
SP500 - The CPI And The MedianlineaPerfect Re-Test.
Interesting enough CPI news pushed price up to the L-MLH and immediately rejected it.
Thant's crazy, but it's no wonder.
Allen Andrews Action/Reaction just works. Why? It's the law of nature.
Newton exposed it, Allen Andrews brought it to the markets.
More red to come, slight reprieve next weekHere is the plan for the near term. Still looks like we are in the tail end of Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 5. Looks like we are in for big drops after the Fed meeting, but the inflation report may remain tame in the short-term.
The estimated path for the rest of Primary wave 5 is here with the turnover occurring around US elections:
Here is the estimated path for the rest of the correction/recession.
Still hoping for the final bottom by March 2025, could be sooner or later of course.
SPY bulltrap again bef plunge;BO of 400/380 may see 350/320/280This is a SPY weekly chart after the Friday FED speech signaling continued hawkishness till inflation drops to 2%. Spy has a history of making bulltraps (higher highs on this weekly chart) before plunging as seen in my several boxes. It was rejected by the black downtrend line from the 476.44 ATH (see black falling wedge) & also rejected by the horizontal neckline of the H&S from top at around 330.
BULLISH SCENARIO: If 362.17 June low is the bottom for this ABC correction, then SPY should make a higher low at either the psychological 400 or 380 (previous H&S destination & also the maximum Fib 0.786 retracement of the latest June rally). From here a new ATH is coming in 4Q2022 when inflation drops lower that 4% & the FED pivots.
BEARISH CASE: SPY will not hold the 362.17 low if 400 & 380 fails. The final targets of this ABC correction may be the ff:
*350 which is the 1.618 FIB EXT of this ABC, the 0.50 retracement from pandemic low to ATH
*320 which is the 2.0 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.618 retracement from pandemic to ATH & also near the 0.382 retracement from 2009 bottom to ATH
*280 which is the 2.618 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.786 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & also near the 0.5 retracement from 2009 Bottom to ATH
These estimates should be considered as +/- zones & not exact levels. The pandemic low of 211.11 is not
likely to be retested.
Not trading advice
will we get an end of the day sell offoverbought stoch rsi and showing a bearish harmonic pattern, looking for a D leg sell off
SP500 INDEX PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE LONG TERM (DUMP)The overall evaluation on the SP500 index has been in a monthly bearish trend that has always confirmed itself via a monthly resistance trendline rejection ever since the apex turning point of this index from January 2022. Please be cautious on your risk management as always. The projected lines of direction (white) are not random skittles, but was produced by my experience of years of trading on how market moves work to build proper market structure. Yes, it is possible that we may even dump further than expected or pump tremendously due to some peculiar and consistent positive catalysts however this serves as a "guideline" on what to expect for the months to come.
The SP500 is very similar to the NASDAQ structure and as well as in crypto. We may not see any potential major consolidation ranges until we hit the 2020 support lines.
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Morning Update: How to place a winning SHORT TRADE?Last Friday right at the close you may recall I shorted the SP Futures via ES Options. At the time the SP Futures were 4274. I choose the 4400 strike AUG EOM contract as I had no Fibonacci areas of resistance at 4400 and by and large I'm conservative when shorting naked options. I received $825 per contract I sold (Short price was $16.50). I sold only 3 contracts for $2466 in premium. For that trade, ToS (Think or Swim) required $28000 in account equity. I share these details NOT TO BRAG but to educate.
How to place a winning SHORT TRADE?
1. Give yourself a chance to be wrong
Despite the best analysis and the clearest of patterns, I will always tend to be conservative when dedicating hard earned money. I AM NOT A SWING FOR THE FENCES TYPE OF TRADER. I put that trade on when the SP was 4274. I didn't do that thinking price could go to 4327 (which it did yesterday). But I choose 4400 because my analysis showed an extremely low probability price could reach that area in 18 days (Options Expiration).
2. I tend to want to be a seller rather than a buyer
When dealing with options the time value is where the meat of the profit comes from. I sold on a Friday, because immediately I pick up 2 days of time deterioration (The Weekend). I would never get this kind of wiggle room if I just shorted the SP outright, or bought puts. When dealing with options I NEVER BUY....NEVER. I sell. So if I'm bullish, I sell puts. If I'm bearish I sell calls. The last reason I sell rather than buy is the buyer's success hinges on only one moment in the future. 5PM EST on the day Options Expire. It doesn't matter how profitable the option buyer is if at 5PM EST on the day that option expires if the strike price has not been breached. The buyer looses 100% of their investment. That appears to be a terrible deal for the buyer....Nonetheless, the buyers line up for the junk I'm selling them. Once again, I have the time factor on my side because I'm a seller.
3. I choose Expirations closer to my trade rather then further away
Some may say, give yourself more time to be right. That's not what my goal is. My goal is to keep 100% of the premium...not be right. Case in point, I shorted these options when the SP was 4274. If on expiration day at 5pm EST the SP futures closes at 4399....I keep 100% of the premium. However, in terms of my entry it appears I entered that short way too early. Clearly from a standpoint of timing the short I was wrong....but in terms of making money I was 100% successful. I'm not keeping score, I'm trying to grow wealth.
In closing I'll share this. In my opinion you have the advantage when you're always a seller, rather than a buyer. Be conservative and choose strike prices outside of your most optimistic or pessimistic viewpoints (based on sound analysis, NOT GUESSES or EMOTION). Don't swing for the fences. The options I sold on Friday expire in 14 days. The SP is 20 points higher than when I sold, and my option is exactly where I sold it. In 3 days it moved my entry up 20 points. This is a winning short trade plan. Why? It appears (as of right now) in 14 days I'll make 9% on money I never spent, having never owned anything.
Best to all,
Chris
ES - S&P 500 rebound finish?After the P5 Low, we have a super nice count to the upside. Now we may have to face that the little party is over.
Potential P5 is in and if it's true, we go down at least the the U-MLH.
An opposite view is, that price will advance to the upside even more. If that's the case the potential to reach the second Warning-Line WL2 is baked in.
The Stochastics faster is already in a overbought territory. Further down moves and increasing Volume would confirm the first coffee-ground reading.
Let's observe.
ES - S&P500 Fractal Coincidence?The Pattern:
Sometimes it's too obvious to call it a coincidence.
The Pitchforks:
And as you can see, knowing how to use a tool can help to make intelligent decisions in trading.
The short time-frame:
The Pendulum Swing:
The Trade:
What if the trade fails? What if this fractal pattern is not playing out as expected?
Then it just was a trade.
Trading doesn't mean that current facts are an insurance for future outcome.
And that's exactly why you have to know your tools and protect your money.
BEARISH outlook in sp500Weekly outlook- bullish.
4hour trend;
currently we seem to be on a bullish tear which seems to have started at 15th july 2022. I have set a sell stop at 4080 if we break that zone my target is 3959.3
SPX triple Top Rejection 4140 - small rally or dump??1 - Looks like 4144 and 4140 double top - better seen on the ES1 FUTURES as a TRIPLE TOP
2 - Oscillators divergence BEARISH – Not supporting the new highs…
3 - Both tops are followed by Large engulfing RED CANDLES - better seen on the US500
4 - MACD – and RSI BEARISH signal
5 -VWAP - Held on the retracement BACK UP –Yesterday Fake Breakout above the VWAP
6 - FIB levels are the current support
7 Last candle was a RED dump –
All the earnings and FED news is out so we “”buy the rumour and sell the fact….””
CPI Next week Wednesday
PPI Thursday
I will add E-MINI’s to Micro Emini’s as this starts to go in the right direction with 4080 secure above me – Needs to break below 4080 and reject its attempt to recover that area... - Bounced there 3x so it will be good resistance against a later rally back??
SP500- I expect a drop to supportIn my previous SP500 analysis I said that the index could rise above the 4k figure and reach the next important resistance zone and, indeed, after it broke above the falling trend line and the horizontal support it accelerated gains and reached my target.
Now, although the rise from the recent bottom looks pretty bullish for the medium term, this 10% growth needs a correction.
From a technical point of view, as I said, we are facing strong resistance and the overall trend, which started this year, is not yet clearly bullish
In conclusion, selling around this zone can be a good strategy with a great R: R if we target 3.9k support
A potential bull trap is in the making in the SPYHi, this idea is based on the analysis of XLP/SPY vs the SP500 for the last 2 bear markets. All information is on the chart.
SP500 Long swingin'Hello Traders,
The sp500 index is supported by an inverted head and shoulders that can push prices to 4100 USD.
FED rate hike will be 75bp ( or less ?) , I don't think 100bp today.
S&P500looks like with fomc around the corner we are most likely to retest our support zones mentioned in the chart. if you like the idea, like and follow for more.
Update For This WeekI tried to study the drop on July 22nd to determine if there were 13 waves for a corrective Minor wave 4 or if there were 21 waves for the first wave 1 in Primary wave 5 down. I saw the former more than the latter. If this is true, my previous forecasts are only off by 3 days and the levels to which they finish will remain with the exception of the wave 4 to wave 5 duration calculations.
If the markings on this chart are true, the market should leap up tomorrow. Consumer confidence numbers come out 30 minutes into the session, however, the data is delayed as it does not depict current consumer conditions. A jubilation of this reading could get us up to and above the current recent high of 4012. This would mean the final top would likely arrive before the Fed announcement on Wednesday at 2 pm eastern time.
This chart would be wrong and the complete prior forecast is valid if we drop below 3940 and then 3902. Tomorrow should tell us where we are heading this week. We should ultimately begin moving down toward 3400 by Friday.
Final Market Drop For Now Looks Like...We are potentially in the early stages of Primary wave 5 in overall Cycle A of SuperCycle 2. SuperCycle 2 began shortly after the beginning of January this year as we are yet to revisit a new all-time high for the S&P 500 index. The wave number nomenclature for this wave being analyzed is 152A5. I may reference the end of this structure (2A5 or A5) when comparing against historical data.
I will try to forward forecast the end of Cycle A which will coincide with the end of Primary wave 5. I will do this by studying the relationships of each Primary wave we have encountered and compare it to the historical relationships between each wave and wave 5. After a rough timeline to completion is established, I will then work backwards and attempt to plot the endpoints for each of the 5 Intermediate waves inside of Primary wave 5. This blueprint will be tweaked as we move through Primary wave 5. (NOTE: If we are still in Primary wave 4, I will re-accomplish these steps once wave 4 appears to have concluded. We are likely still in wave 4 if a high above 4012 is achieved this week, however, Friday July 29, 2022 is likely the last day in this wave.)
WAVELENGTH BASED ON STRUCTURE ENDING (A5 / 2A5)
Based on all waves ending in 2A5, the strongest model agreement suggests this current wave will last 23 trading days. The second strongest agreement is at 46 days and third strongest at 19 days. Primary wave 1 lasted 35 days, wave 2 was 23 days, wave 3 was 56 days, and as of now wave 4 is 23 days. Waves ending in 2A5 tend to makeup 14.29-16-25% of the larger waves they reside inside with the first value being the 1st quartile, second is the median, and last is 3rd quartile based on all available data. Based on the duration of Primary waves 1 through 4 and application of the 14.29-25% values, Primary 5 could last 23, 26, or 46 days. Waves ending in A5 slightly expand this range with a 15.38-19.18-29.03% quartile breakdown. Replicating this analysis per the last portion, Primary 5 could last 25, 32, or 56 days. Primary waves ending in 2A5 makeup 15.56% - 36.95% of the wave in which they reside. This would add lengths of 25 and 80 days. Primary wave 5 has moved beyond the length of Primary wave 3 on only 2 of 28 occasions. This means the overall length will likely be less than 56 trading days.
There are other studied areas and ratios, however the standard deviations in the data does not point to much consistency. The ratio between the duration of Primary wave 4 to Primary wave 5 sits in a relatively small window. Wave 4’s duration in trading days to wave 5 has a median ratio of 0.4358. This means wave 4’s duration of 23 days divided by 0.4358 could see Primary wave 5 lasting 53 days. Quartile 1’s ratio is 0.2517 and quartile 3 is 0.6507. The first quartile would have the length at 91 days while the third quartile would be 35 days.
For reference, 23 days would end August 24; 25—August 26; 26—August 29; 32—September 7; 35—September 12; 46—September 27; 56—October 11; 80—November 14; 91—November 30. Most of these days point to a potential bottom by mid-September, however, Primary wave 5 may end as late as November. Calculating the duration of the waves has proven one of the more difficult tasks undertaken during Elliott Wave forecasting, but we are getting better.
Realistically we may drop until the next Federal Reserve meeting in September where inflation may appear under more control than it has been. That meeting is scheduled for September 21.
WAVE MOVEMENT FORECASTING
Wave 5 tends to extend beyond the end of wave 3’s value. These extensions are considered as percentages of wave 3’s movement. If Primary wave 5 drops to the end of Primary wave 3 at 3636.87, then 100% of wave 3’s movement would have been achieved. Waves ending in 2A5 have extensions with the quartile breakdowns of 112.36%-135.09%-204.51%. Waves ending in A5 have a quartile breakdown of 112.36-122.26-163.93%. Primary wave 5s have a quartile breakdown of 105.86-120.12-153.08%. Lastly, Primary wave 5s ending in A5 extend 112.36%, 114.06%, 116.69%, and 203.9% beyond Primary wave 3. Most of these levels have been plotted on the chart above.
Another datapoint for forecasting movement is how much wave 5 makes up of the overall wave in which it resides. Waves ending in A5 makeup 36.90%-49.71%-74.18% in the quartile breakdown. Waves ending in 2A5 makeup 30.60%-56.75%-86.46%. Primary wave 5’s tend to makeup 26.305-41.04-51.51% in the quartile breakdown. Primary waves ending in 2A5 specifically makeup 21.37%, 23.51%, 36.09% and 75.12%.
Assuming Wave 5 moves beyond the end of Primary wave 3, wave 5’s movement should account for greater than 32% of the overall wave. If Primary wave 5 makes up greater than 70%, the market bottom would be below 2112. This level is well beyond the rare drop level of 2636 which would be a 200% extension of Primary wave 3. Movement below 2636 is likely out of the realm of possible for this Primary wave 5. This would mean wave 5 will likely account for 32%-63% of Cycle wave A’s movement. The bottom of Cycle wave A Primary wave 5 should occur within the highlighted box in the chart above.
S&P500, can we regain some losses?Hi Traders,
Indices have been a bear market lately and we have finally have reached a critical point if we will see a breakout upwards another push down. Looking at the HTF price has been consolidating within a falling wedge reversal structure. On the LTF, price broke out of a bullish continuation pattern within the larger structure which seems to be correctively pushing out of the HTF structure. Wait for further development to see if we will see a HTF continuation structure to give us a buy opportunity.
Trade Safe
Thanks
SHORT the SP500 after Monday - May see 3900 then SHORTTrading between 25% and 50% FIBS
MAY complete last wave to 3900 – then Reverse
Potential Triple Top -Strong Resistance
Divergence On the Oscillators
SP500 and US100 also has a similar flag - Hopefully TSLA MSFT GOOGLE APPLE AMZN eps will tank this market as all reporting in the next 14 days - and 7-21- Europe drops 10% if the Russian gas does not get turned back on after maintenance – and 7-28 2nd quarter GDP confirming recession 7-29 the Fed explains why another 3/4% hike scheduled for Sept ... So we are due for an interesting 2 weeks
Trade Safe -
Please Leave comment or insight so I can learn!
