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Sp500short

S&P 500 -Short if closeing in the ForkThe count speaks for it self. However, P5 started a new count to the downside. The under- and overshoot where wonderful. Picture perfect I would say. But price traded back into the Fork again, not able to reach the Centerline. We (Medianline & Pitchforker) call this a HAGOPIAN. So, price should go back farther than from where it came (P5). But so far it couldn't reach this level again. And if the ES close today lies again within the Fork, then guess what we have? Right, a new HAGOPIAN and again a target way below at the Centerline. Which one? I leave it up to you to manage your trades.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
MAJOR resistance test for the marketsAttempting to identify the end of Intermediate B has been waves of fun and plenty of misses. While there is no prescribed metrics on what the wave’s overall movement and duration should be, historical metrics have been quite reliable (most of the time). That has not been the case during this chase for Intermediate wave B. I have not given up and caved to the belief that the major uptrend has begun yet. We should still move down in an Intermediate wave C which will also close out Primary wave B (corrective downward wave). Here is my Elliott wave outline of Primary wave B so far. Primary wave A ended with the peak in the first hour of trading on December 1, 2022 (light blue colored-encircled letter A). Primary wave B is comprised of 3 subwaves (Intermediate waves). Intermediate wave A (magenta letter A in parenthesis) ended with a low on December 22, 2022 and has yet to be broken. I currently have placed Intermediate wave B’s endpoint at the high from January 13, although this could still change in the next few trading days. My Elliott Wave, Wave 3 finder, identifies wave 3 and other reversal extremes such as the end of waves 2, 4, and B. This indicator is toward the bottom of my charts. The signals are a magenta background bar when entering a reversal that will see the equity move up soon and a lighter blue background color when the equity has topped and will revert to the downside. The Minor waves reside inside each Intermediate wave and are colored with yellow letters or numbers Minute waves are inside of each Minor wave and they are colored with light green alpha numerals. My wave 3 indicator mainly spots wave 3 of 3 which was the case midday on December 16 and early morning on January 9. This is why I am confident that Intermediate A was placed correctly, and we are still in Intermediate wave B for the moment. We are finally approaching a major level of resistance which has held strong since January 2022. We have not had a daily bar that has closed above the thick red-dotted line. This will be tested within the next 3 days. An alternative location if we break through the resistance and keep moving higher is that we are indeed in Primary wave C and should continue upward toward 4400-4600. If this path plays out, Primary wave B would have ended on December 22. Here is a chart of this alternative course and where we may be today: I do not like this due to the pace of Cycle wave B. Cycle wave B began at the current market low from October. The original expectation was that it would ultimately trend upward until Summer 2023. If this alternative were true, the market top would probably occur within another month, maybe two at the most. While this is not impossible, and potentially practical, the historical relationships between the macro and minor waves do not support this outcome. IF WE JUST ENDED INTERMEDIATE WAVE B: The following projection will only be a rough estimate of where Intermediate C down inside of Primary B would take us IF Intermediate wave B indeed ended at the market high on Friday January 13, 2023. Based on historical waves ending in 2BBC, potential wave durations based on data quartiles are 6, 11, 28, or 41 trading days. Movement extension in relation to Intermediate wave A’s movement are 127.13%, 130.095% and 133.06%. These percentages and levels have not changed since my analysis two weeks ago and are the light blue lines. The only new difference based on waves ending in BBC are the potential wave durations as well. Most model agreement is with a duration of 10 & 28 days. There is a large tie for second most at 5-8, 11, 12, 14, 15, 19, 24, 31, & 41 days. For waves ending in BC, most model agreement is at a length of 14 trading days. Second most is at 14 days, third most at 42 days. Fourth most ties at 7, 8, & 10 trading days. Fifth is 5, 19, 28, & 56 days. Historically wave C can be equal to the length of waves A + B. Intermediate wave A was 15 days long and wave B for the moment is at 14 days. Based on all this data, 28 days may be around the maximum length for Intermediate wave C. This date February 24th. Another potential length is 11 days, which while less than both Intermediate waves A or B, it aligns with the next Fed meeting and rate hike. The only near-term catalysts for market decline occurring immediately would be earnings in which the season just began. The Fed will not meet for a few more weeks and that is too deep into the projected decline to be a cause of the decline. The Fed would most likely signal the bottom if they hold to the market’s current expectation of a 25 or 50 basis point hike. Bottom line is we should decline at least one more time to retest the December lows before moving upward. The resistance test early this week will show us if that decline will occur. I will conduct a market re-look after this week plays out.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
S&P500: Don't push it 🚫The S&P500 is currently wandering sideways and doesn't really know, where it's heading. We're currently expecting the course to sink further South, but there is a slight temptation to cross the resistance line at 4026 points. In our alternative scenario with a probability of 30%, the course could dig a bit deeper to finish the pink wave alt. II, before exceeding the resistance mark at 4026 points for good. Primarily, the S&P500 should fall below the support line at 3788 points to complete the blue wave . Once achieved, we're predicting steady upwards pulses in the longterm.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
ES - S&P 500 Retest and Down We GoWith the "cooked" CPI, let us examine the ES Chart. 1. The dotted yellow TL's show the OVERShoot and UNDERShoot, which are perfectly in line with the Medianlines. 2. Price was going up from the Zero to Five Count and broke the confirmed Pivot 4. This leads into a potential new start of the next Downtrend. 3. From the red 1, up to where we are now (2023/01/12), this looks like a perfect market manipulation in line with the CPI. However, with or without CPI, we see where price bangs it's head to day on a intraday view. Right at the U-MLH. We could either get a hard rejection from here, or price even get's pushed up to the yellow sliding parallel. 4. The Stochastic also shows a negative sign since price got pushed up to the U-MLH. If your backtest this Oscillator, then you know that most of the time there's a push in the opposite side before price synchronizes. Or in short: Watch the Rocket Man §8-) Stay save and trade with Brain.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
SPX Fair Value Ranges - SPX ES1! SPY - Updated 121722Here is a chart that calculates SPX "Fair Value", based off FED Net Liquidity variables. SPY ES1! Looking to the end of the year 2022 and the start of 2023, here are some SPX target ranges to keep in mind when taking into account the current FED Net Liquidity: Upper Bound: $4,271.69 Fair Value: $3,921.69 Lower Bound: $3,771.69 If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼 SPX Fair Value (FED Net Liquidity) www.tradingview.com SPX Net Liquidity Band Indicator via @dharmatechnology8: www.tradingview.com
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco
Some Down Side to come Hey All, Just some food for thought but We have multiple charts showing some downwards pressure coming to markets all are shown below and with the CPI coming out this week and Fed rate decision we have the catalyst for another sell off. We have an Weekly engulfing bearish candle on the SP500, Vix bouncing off a falling wedge and trend line, US dollar also bouncing off support line and possible head and shoulders developing on it, Silver with negative divergence and both the 2yr and 10 yr bond yields bouncing off trend support lines. All of these charts point that pain is coming to the market. My belief is we will retest the previous low at least then find some buyers possibly rallying back from there or as indicated on the chart maybe another pump and dump lower but we wont know until we reach that point. I do think this will be the last leg down for a while until later in 2023 as company health and earnings will be the bigger question on the markets mind as rates will stagnate. This would follow previous rate and market movements in previous corrections for example rates in 2007 stagnated but markets then declined and recession in 2008, 1999 rates started to stagnate then in 2000 recession and market decline started same in 94-95 and 87. I feel the main charts to focus on at the DXY and the yields if the dollar creates the head and shoulders pattern we could see a strong short squeeze of the previous low on the SP500 and Dollar start falling but we will know if there is more pain after that if yields start stagnating or increase more.
TVC:SPXShort
by jackwheeler
The S&P500 rally stalled at a key resistance clusterThe jury is out over whether a bear-market rally has topped, or last week’s decline is simply a pullback ahead of its next break higher. Yet the turn of momentum at a key resistance cluster suggests bears are regaining control. The S&P 500 had its most bearish week in 5 as its rally stalled at the 50-week MEA, trend resistance, a 161.8% Fibonacci ratio and the September high. The daily chart shows prices closed below trend resistance, and the market has since failed to move back up to 4,000. A bearish outside day formed on Friday to who momentum is trying to turn lower. A break below 3915 assumes bearish continuation, with 3818.2 an initial target, and a break below 3800 brings 3700 into focus.
SP:SPXShort
by CityIndex
The Recession will continue. SP500!!! A year ago i posted that SP500 will continue to fall ,now we see what clearly has happened since then . The overall fall has prodused ripples of fear throughout the whole market. Infation coming in hot , the FED keeps rising interest rates , mass cut of position jobs from big companies, most of that happening on a short period of time . I believe that if the report by the FED on Wensday comes with higher interest rates , the market will crash lower with my perdiction ranging on a -15% to -20% by the first weeks of the new year . Even if the report comes in lower , market will still find its way to the bottom throughout the new year. Moreover through the analysis of the past recessions and crashes and due to the current market conditions over the last year i consider the overall market is set to fall even lower with the SP500 falling at 2400-2200 , which is almost 50% drop from its peak . To sum up , i believe this trumble will sink the whole global market , at a point that every citizen will feel it to the bone. I dont want to spread fear or being pessimistic but i want to spread awearness , and you being prepeared for every possible outcome, because the one who loses money and afraid of the current situation is the one WHO IS NOT PREPARED!!!
TVC:SPXShort
by The_DailyProfit
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * US November PPI came in at 0.3%, a bit higher than the consensus estimate of 0.2% after rising 0.2% in October . This sent Risk-On markets lower as fears of another 75bps rate hike returned to the table. One good thing about November's PPI is that it increased 7.4% from last November, compared to 8.1% in October. Expectations for China's reopening are continuing to materialize as 28 oil tankers remain backlogged in the Black Sea due to Turkey's recent request for insurance checks on Russian oil tankers . Meanwhile the EU faces an energy crisis exacerbated by recent oil price caps and the Russia/Ukraine war that many fear will spill over into a global financial meltdown . However, if US November CPI prints lower and the FOMC follows through on a loose commitment to a 50bps rate hike, selling pressure may be alleviated in the near term. DXY, US Treasurys, VIX, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100, Energy and Metals finished up on the day. US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Agriculture and EURUSD finished down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price finished the day trending down at $3934 after being rejected by the uptrend line from 10/13 as resistance, it's now approaching a retest of $3913 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (moderate) and favored sellers in today's session after favoring buyers in the previous two sessions, a clear indication of PPI induced fears. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4090, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 49 after being rejected by 52.68 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at 46. Stochastic remains bearish after a bullish crossover attempt was rejected at 5, it is currently trending down at 3.5 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 33 support. ADX is currently trending down at 15 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the uptrend line from 10/13 at ~$4k as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally retest $3913 minor support before potentially retesting the 50MA at $3840 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4058.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Does the yield curve inversion signal recession?The famous negative curve. This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen? The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system. Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in longer terms is used to provide positive arbitrage between interest rates on liabilities (paid) and assets (received), a strategy subject to the limits of the rollover capacity of the liabilities and raising new funds. The availability of assets with higher premiums and liquidity, US02Y and US03Y, makes it less attractive to offer funds for longer terms < US10Y, and more expensive to raise funds for those who demand funds for shorter terms. So the interest curve is considered a kind of thermometer of what lies ahead in an economy, and it is the graphic representation of how much investors are charging to lend money in different maturities, and once it is inverted, it means that it is more expensive to borrow in the short term than in the long term – an unusual thing, because more distant payment dates mean greater risks for the borrower. In the US economy, a widely documented fact is that yield curve inversion (i.e., when there is a negative differential between long-term versus short-term bond yields) is a good leading indicator of periods of economic contraction. four to six quarters ahead. According to data available on the Federal Reserve website, yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967. There is also evidence that indicators of this nature are important predictors of periods of economic contraction in other countries. But are there any silver linings to this unusual reversal scenario? Yes, in these moments of greater uncertainty we have an interesting opportunity to buy good companies at low prices. This is because after the monetary tightening cycle, the economy usually weakens, during this period risk assets suffer, considering that their future projections will suffer due to the scenario, so many of the market participants seek security in bonds, others seek to anticipate the recovery considering that as soon as this CORRECTIVE cycle ends, a new UPWARD CYCLE tends to maintain perennial companies and give birth to many new companies that arise in the face of challenging scenarios.
TVC:US10YEducation
by leandrosander_
33
How does the market react after inflation peaks ? Hi guys, today I bring you an important point for macro analysis. Many believe that seeing a significant improvement in economic data, especially those linked to inflation, showing that it is slowing down is something positive, is it really? In a way, it's a positive metric when looked at in isolation, because inflation brings major disturbances to the economy, but that's a topic for another post. What matters is that the mere fact that inflation has marked a possible peak and the Fed has started to reduce interest rates does not mean that we are going to have a bottom in the market! Currently big banks are warning about the recession, and this for us, is not news, but look at this headline: "Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, talks of recession next year" But here we had already been talking about this recession for some time, after publishing a study talking about the inversion of the yield curve, in that study there was the following sentence: "According to the data available on the Federal Reserve website, the inversion of the yield curve preceded all American recessions since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967." This publication was made on the So, yes, we have a contracted recession, but what does that have to do with peak inflation? Inflation brings, as a consequence, a scenario of uncertainties in the economy, and discourages new investments from being carried out. In practice, this causes difficulties for the country's economic growth, and once we have this combined with high interest rates, growth becomes even more difficult. So, even though inflation has reached its peak, interest rates are still very high, and we continue to struggle with economic growth and this usually happens, see the chart, after inflation peaks we had big drops. Will we see something similar again? Tell me your opinion here!
SP:SPX
by leandrosander_
29
20 Reason buy S&P🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️ 1 ✨Eagle eye: Super BUllish 2 📆Monthly: after a deep correction now, the impulsive move is just started 3 📅Weekly: bear trend/beartrap double bottom/ make lower high 4 🕛Daily: the clear bull trend toward extreme high 😇7 Dimension analysis 🟢 analysis time frame: daily 5: 1 Price Structure: bullish 6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: flag 7: 3 Volume: high volume 8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: super bullish 9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: v 10: 6 Strength ADX: bullish 11: 7 Sentiment ROC: bull ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4 12: Entry TF Structure: bull 13: entry move: impulsive 14: Support resistance base: cip 15: FIB: ☑️ final comments: buy 16: 💡decision: buy 17: 🚀Entry: 4107 18: ✋Stop losel:4019 19: 🎯Take profit:4198
SP:SPXLong
by Optimum369
S&P 500 index: When you reach the top...A very robust US labour market data released on Friday shocked equity markets, which had surged in the aftermath of Powell's speech confirming a slower pace of rises in December. Non-farm payrolls ( NFPs ) came in at 263k, which was significantly higher than the 200k that had been anticipated, and average hourly wages rose 5.1% y/y, well above the 4.6% expected. The job report came as a surprise following an event hosted by the Brookings Institution on Wednesday, at which Powell emphasized the need to slow the pace of rate hikes as early as the December FOMC meeting, therefore solidifying a 50 basis point hike rather than a 75 basis point boost. The market was overly optimistic about a "Santa rally," spurred by Powell's latest dovish attitude, but may now face a rough two-week road leading up to the next US CPI data and FOMC meeting. Prior to Friday, 92% of S&P 500 equities were trading above their 50-day moving average, a level that has historically triggered a bearish reversal. Currently, the level has just fallen to 90%, which remains in the top high of the historical range.  During the Friday session, the S&P 500 index encountered fresh bearish pressure at 4,100 levels on Friday, after strongly breaching its 200-day moving average for the first time since April and firmly trading above the 4,000 psychological mark. The price action had reversed solidly when it met the dynamic resistance, represented by the 2022 trendline. The S&P is currently seeking support near 4,000 points, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line of the low to high of 2022. If this level is broken to the downside, there is the potential for a move to 3,800 (23.6% Fibonacci) prior to important data (US CPI) and the FOMC meeting.  Given the expected repricing of Fed rates for 2023 after the NFP reading, and the Fed blackout period, bull efforts to break over 4,100 have fewer probabilities.
TVC:SPX
by Capitalcom