Annnnnnnnd it's gone. expecting 0% day. daily hammerbreakout of bear channel has failed. Expect some crazy daily candle
Sp500index
SPX Year long downward Trend BrokenWe have officially breached this trend line that's held for the last year. Either this is super bullish or we're headed to the basement. We shall see.
SPX /S&P 500 📈Top 3: AAPLE, MSFT, AMZNHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
If you're into stonks, today's update is for YOU. Cryptocurrencies are the largest part of our focus, but that doesn't mean we don't consider other markets suck as Forex, commodities and stocks. So today, let's take a look at the SPX / S&P 500 :
The top 3 stocks in the SPX by weight are :
1) Apple Inc. / AAPLE weighing 6.488138
2) Microsoft Corporation / MSFT weighing 5.52972
3) Amazon.com Inc. / AMZN weighing 2.386112
To put it into perspective, number 500 on the list is DaVita Inc. / DVA weighing only 0.012525. (There are actually 503 stocks in the S&P500).
From the above, we can clearly conclude that what happens in those 3 markets, especially AAPLE, holds quite a lot more weight than the rest. Taking a look at AAPLE from a Macro perspective, the chart seems to be in trouble. A very clear Wyckoff Distribution Phase is about to form:
On the Microsoft chart, thins are not looking rosy either. Infact, it seems as though we have just finished the low volume rally, meaning distribution phase in full force is up next:
AMZN is the only chart of the Top 3 lookin remotely bullish, seeming to have completed a full Wyckoff Method Cycle. Next up would be accumulation phase which involves range bound or sideways trading :
The S&P 500 index is a great way to diversify your portfolio and so manage your risk. It consists of most (but not all) of the largest companies in the United States. The S&P market cap is 70% - 80% of the total US stock market capitalization. It is a commonly used benchmark for stock portfolio performance in the US and abroad. Beating the performance of the S&P with less risk is the goal of nearly every portfolio manager, hedge fund and private investor/speculator.
Interested in Cryptocurrencies? Check out this bullish idea on Litecoin :
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S&P500 TRADING IDEAS AHEAD OF THE HOT CPI DATAIn the past 12hrs, the stock market rallied in anticipation to lower Inflation Data (CPI). The forecasts are that the the December figures may be lower than November's. Should the CPI data come out better than expected the DXY will tumble, consequently the S&P500 will surge to the 4100 mark.
On the flip side, should the Inflation data come out negative (High Inflation), the DXY will rally while the S&p500 could dip to the 3920 mark.
Inflation Forecast:
CPI (MoM): 0.3%
CPI (YoY): 7.3%
$SPX (SP500) - UPDATE 4H - CPI LEAKED?$SPX (SP500) - UPDATE 4H - CPI LEAKED?
Does someone know something...?
A quick +1% move this evening with #CPI Data dropping tomorrow. Suspicious 🤔
We just follow the charts. Break-out of this diagonal resistance line, $4050 next.
#SP500
SPX Daily Bearish SignalsThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) is trading within a descending channel.
Lower highs and lower lows.
The RSI has gone below 50.
QStick also showing bearish signals.
Multiple sessions closed below EMA10 and EMA21.
Decreasing trading volume.
Bad news incoming 13-14 Dec.
Other major indices also turning bearish.
These signals point to lower prices.
Conditions for change
The SPX needs to break and close above 3970 daily to reconsider bullish potential.
A close above 4100 is needed to move ahead.
Any trading below 4100 and the bearish potential we are seeing now stays in play.
Namaste.
S&P 500 Short Long didn't go as high as expected, SPY breaking below the trendline.
Waiting for retracement into OTE 0.618 fib
SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.16%, up from 3.08% from last week according to DVOL data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 71th percentile,
while according to VIX, we are on 31th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 2.72% movement
Bearish: 2.4% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 15.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 4072
BOT: 3805
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 4050
67% probability we are going to touch previous low 3915
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 13% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 0% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -40% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
The S&P500 rally stalled at a key resistance clusterThe jury is out over whether a bear-market rally has topped, or last week’s decline is simply a pullback ahead of its next break higher. Yet the turn of momentum at a key resistance cluster suggests bears are regaining control.
The S&P 500 had its most bearish week in 5 as its rally stalled at the 50-week MEA, trend resistance, a 161.8% Fibonacci ratio and the September high. The daily chart shows prices closed below trend resistance, and the market has since failed to move back up to 4,000. A bearish outside day formed on Friday to who momentum is trying to turn lower.
A break below 3915 assumes bearish continuation, with 3818.2 an initial target, and a break below 3800 brings 3700 into focus.
S&P500 Index Forming Weekly Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern?This week, we take a look at the technical analysis of S&P500 from monthly down to 4Hours, in order to see any trading opportunities in the market and the US market in general. Here, is the index forming valid inverted head and shoulder price pattern?
N.B
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
-ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
S&P500 trading flat
In our previous post, we mentioned that the index is overextended and indeed the index trades in consolidation last week.
The S&P500 trades in flat as it break out of the ascending trend line, invalidating short term bullish momentum.
Short term support level at 3915 region and a breakout of this support can indicate more downside towards 3752 region.
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES - Updated 121022 Given that we are headed into the release of the November Consumer Price Index this upcoming (Tuesday, December 13th ) and also the December Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, December 14th) , are markets set up for another short opportunity into the end of January (Q1)?
SPY Daily Chart Template
www.tradingview.com
Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets?
Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED).
Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED).
Let me know your prediction in the comments below!
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash.
* US November PPI came in at 0.3%, a bit higher than the consensus estimate of 0.2% after rising 0.2% in October . This sent Risk-On markets lower as fears of another 75bps rate hike returned to the table. One good thing about November's PPI is that it increased 7.4% from last November, compared to 8.1% in October. Expectations for China's reopening are continuing to materialize as 28 oil tankers remain backlogged in the Black Sea due to Turkey's recent request for insurance checks on Russian oil tankers . Meanwhile the EU faces an energy crisis exacerbated by recent oil price caps and the Russia/Ukraine war that many fear will spill over into a global financial meltdown . However, if US November CPI prints lower and the FOMC follows through on a loose commitment to a 50bps rate hike, selling pressure may be alleviated in the near term.
DXY, US Treasurys, VIX, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100, Energy and Metals finished up on the day. US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Agriculture and EURUSD finished down.
Key Upcoming Dates: US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. *
Price finished the day trending down at $3934 after being rejected by the uptrend line from 10/13 as resistance, it's now approaching a retest of $3913 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (moderate) and favored sellers in today's session after favoring buyers in the previous two sessions, a clear indication of PPI induced fears. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4090, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 49 after being rejected by 52.68 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at 46. Stochastic remains bearish after a bullish crossover attempt was rejected at 5, it is currently trending down at 3.5 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 33 support. ADX is currently trending down at 15 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the uptrend line from 10/13 at ~$4k as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally retest $3913 minor support before potentially retesting the 50MA at $3840 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4058.
TSLA still has further downside to goTSLA stock has been on a selloff recently. Despite that it seems that the stock still do have further downside to go. However, we are soon reaching a critical level. With both a completetion of a 1 to 1 from the most recent pivot, in addition to that we are reaching a critical keylevel, there seems some hope for the bulls.
SP500 a short term outlook 🦐SP500 on the daily chart after the recent high tested the descending trendline at the 0.618 Fibonacci level and started a retracement move to the 0.5.
The price is now moving over a daily support and a possible break can happen.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for the US market open and if the market will break and close below i will consider a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
• 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
• 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
• 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
• 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
• ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Does the yield curve inversion signal recession?The famous negative curve.
This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen?
The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system.
Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in longer terms is used to provide positive arbitrage between interest rates on liabilities (paid) and assets (received), a strategy subject to the limits of the rollover capacity of the liabilities and raising new funds.
The availability of assets with higher premiums and liquidity, US02Y and US03Y, makes it less attractive to offer funds for longer terms < US10Y, and more expensive to raise funds for those who demand funds for shorter terms.
So the interest curve is considered a kind of thermometer of what lies ahead in an economy, and it is the graphic representation of how much investors are charging to lend money in different maturities, and once it is inverted, it means that it is more expensive to borrow in the short term than in the long term – an unusual thing, because more distant payment dates mean greater risks for the borrower.
In the US economy, a widely documented fact is that yield curve inversion (i.e., when there is a negative differential between long-term versus short-term bond yields) is a good leading indicator of periods of economic contraction. four to six quarters ahead.
According to data available on the Federal Reserve website, yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967.
There is also evidence that indicators of this nature are important predictors of periods of economic contraction in other countries.
But are there any silver linings to this unusual reversal scenario? Yes, in these moments of greater uncertainty we have an interesting opportunity to buy good companies at low prices.
This is because after the monetary tightening cycle, the economy usually weakens, during this period risk assets suffer, considering that their future projections will suffer due to the scenario, so many of the market participants seek security in bonds, others seek to anticipate the recovery considering that as soon as this CORRECTIVE cycle ends, a new UPWARD CYCLE tends to maintain perennial companies and give birth to many new companies that arise in the face of challenging scenarios.
