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Time Cycle analysis SP500I'm in the camp that believes the S&P500 is in a megabubble. The pattern that has formed over the past 25 years is identical to most other bubbles with each feature being clearly defined. I'm a huge fan of cycle analysis and use it on shorter timeframes for trading. However here we are looking at a more macro level analysis using only large cycles. Cycles on this time frame are never going to be precise, and only provide a general range to watch for bottoming processes at. The current red cycle shown has the next trough (buy zone) around the middle of 2024. That coincides with the approximate time the fed has stated it will begin reducing rates, which gives it some extra validity (even though I came up with these cycles way before the crash even began!). There is also a double cycle trough zone in 2028 and 2029 afterwards, usually such a pattern signifies some type of double bottom. If these cycles are correct, there is huge opportunity to be had from the 2024 cycle trough going long. If that is not 'the' bottom of this crash, then a significant rebound will likely still happen from that area. This overall 20 year long pattern does not end well in nearly all cases I have seen it, and in my opinion has the potential to bring the S&P 500 down into the 2000-2400 area. Do NOT underestimate how low a crash can go before it bottoms. It's also worth taking a look at the volume profile that has formed over the course of this megabubble. And as always, this is my personal opinion and is NOT advice and your own trading is at your own risk, do your own DD.
SP:SPXLong
by thestructured
1
S&P500 Analysis 29.12.2022Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational analysis. I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities. If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below. I will personally reply to every single comment! If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
OANDA:SPX500USD
by basictradingtv
20
The Downside is Still the Dominant TrendI know that many are waiting for a Santa Claus rally this year. They may get something that resembles it, but if you are a trader there is one thing that you may need to focus on more than that potential rally. Hedge like your life depended on it. The next batch of economic data may not reflect a market that is ready to rally on to All Time Highs. In fact it may show that the global economy is weakening and two shades away from failing. So traders should use any upside as an opportunity to go short into 2023. By all means if you feel like there may be upside going into 2023, my advice would be to put a dollar toward the long side for ever 4 you put toward the short.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by D1Finance
S&P500 trades in consolidation. What is the next direction?The S&P500 traded in a range between 3800 region and 3900 region this week. This week price action played out exactly based on what we mentioned on our previous post that bearish momentum is likely to pause before heading to the 3815 region. Price rejected the 3915 resistance region before dipping lower. Any breakout confirmation of the 3915 resistance region can potentially indicate more upside movement while any breakout confirmation of the 3815 region can potentially indicate more downside movement.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TrainingTrader
SP500 looking for the 50% 🦐SP500 on the 4h chart after the expected drop has retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. The price might retest the 50% precisely at the previous support now turned resistance. How can i approach this scenario? I will be monitoring the price action around the structure and IF the market provides a sign of inversion I will consider a nice short order according to the Planctonìs strategy rules. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by InkyGrip
12
S&P500 - Up or Down? Read on, here's the answer...Imagine you set out to write a script that analyses the fall of raindrops to predict the impact location of the next drop. Will it hit to the left or right of the set line? A difficult but solvable task, it seems, isn't it? Or you write a script that tries to predict next Saturday's draw results as accurately as possible using historical data from lottery draws over the past weeks and years. You have enough information to learn from, you would think, wouldn't you? You have this feeling that everyone who has tried it before has overlooked something brilliant and instantly simple. It is possible, you just have to do it right. Is it really? Then there is this seemingly endless amount of books, theories, strategies and tools, indicators and community wisdom to make this task easier for you. So what's the problem? Well, considering everything that has been said, I think it would be logical to conclude that the S&P 500 price is about to move! Stay tuned...
FX:SPX500
by ReallyMe
2
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. * US New Residential Construction saw Building Permits for November down 11.2% from October to 1,342,000 and November Housing Starts down 0.5% from October to 1,427,000 . These numbers are reflective of an economy preparing for weakening demand as we head into 2023. US November Consumer Confidence spiked from 101.4 in November to 108.3 in December following two consecutive months of decline . This number is likely reflective of a lower CPI in November paired with expectations of continued lower inflation in 2023. Nike beat on both top and bottom 2023 Q2 estimates with its second best quarter of revenue growth in the past 10+ years , this is likely due to Black Friday sales and holiday shopping but is also reflective of a still strong US consumer. It was confirmed today by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the first transfer of the Patriot Air Defense System will be included in the most recent $1.85b aid package that the US will provide to Ukraine . Ukraine President Zelenskyy has also landed in the USA to meet with President Biden and deliver a speech to a joint session in Congress later tonight. Russia has previously declared that any Patriot Missiles supplied to Ukraine would immediately become legitimate targets of their armed forces attack . US Equities, US Equity Futures, Energy, Agriculture, DXY, HSI and N100 are up. Cryptos are mixed. Metals, GBPUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, NI225, VIX and US Treasurys are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently testing the 50MA at $3875 as resistance. Volume is currently Low (high) and on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4045, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from January 2022 at 46.5 as resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session after retesting max bottom and is currently trending up at 11, the next resistance is at 17. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing -11.45 support. ADX is currently trending down at 13.6 as Price is attempting to defend support at the 50MA, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is to reclaim support of the 50MA it will have to close above $3875 as well as recapture support at $3913 minor support . However, if Price is rejected here at the 50MA, it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from July 2021 at ~$3710 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3810.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022 SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.14%, DOWN from 3.17% from last week With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 74th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.7% movement Bearish: 2.6% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 24.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 3995 BOT: 3752 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 35% probability we are going to touch previous high 4183 65% probability we are going to touch previous low 3856 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
S&P500 LOOKS GOOD HERE ON MONTHLYTwo strong technical factors are giving the S&P500 support to continue up over the long term. Bouncing off the MA200 and a direct hit of the 50% fib retrace means the downside will have a low probability going forward. Of course, macro factors could play a role in changing its course but as it stands I am fairly confident this is a one-way ticket. As mentioned above, we could see a small downside to 3700 -+ before the continuation to the upside. Of course, you should remember this could take some time as we are looking at a monthly chart, but basically, I'm saying limited downside from here and a greater percentage of upside. This would also work with economic timing and the so-called recession people are saying we are heading for, this may be so or maybe not so, but most likely more of a mild recession from an American point of view. (Other countries may not be so lucky.) So all this FUD may end just as the S&P500 wants to go up, and then you are looking at fireworks, and the timing of that is what we must look out for.
FX:SPX500Long
by danielgwatkin