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SPX - What are they not telling us about the Interest Rate?Hello Traders and Investors. I hope you are doing well. In front of you you can see the SPX (S&P 500) chart and in white is the U.S. interest rate chart. Everyone is screaming that interest rate hikes are causing markets to fall, and there is certainly some truth to that, but just look at history. Why are we being lied to? Look closely, this is not something that bloggers who draw lines and figures on the chart show you. Raising the rate used to drive the price up, lowering the rate to drive the markets down. If the rate didn't change, the price went up. Now the interest rate goes up and the markets are in a downward movement. Where is the correlation they are talking about? The year 2023 will be the year the markets recover! Bitcoin is an asset that will bring +200% - 300% this year. All my 6 years of trading experience, knowledge, developments, and indicators I share them here in ideas for free. In return I will ask you just follow me, like this post and leave a nice comment, it will allow me to move faster and make more useful content! 💚💚💚
SP:SPX
by Yaroslav_Krasko
3
Historical buy opportunity in DisneyThe algorithm is showing Disney in a very important historical support zone. In the chart you can see the historical channel and how the price is approaching the support line. Furthermore the 80$ is a key support that if it's lost could move the price to 43$ easily because there is no other serious support or historical volume. So, by buying slightly over 80$ or even 90$ you can use a very tight stop loss and unlock a potential of 60% to the first take profits or even 120% if the prices goes back to maximum price. Right now and leaving in the first take profits, you can risk 1$ to earn at least 6$ which is a crazy risk reward ratio for any trader.
NYSE:DISLong
by TopChartPatterns
S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market LowerToday, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’. I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short). Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑 Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!) Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE) Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO) Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE) Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX) 1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊 *2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’ Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’ *2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’ Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’ 2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…* Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’ What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
SP:SPXShort
by kylemusserco
1
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX Q - Updated 010323After a sloppy last few weeks of trading to wrap up the year-end 22', SPY closed right around the (Q4/22') SPX JPM J.P. Morgan Quarterly Collar sitting right at $3,830. Looking ahead to the month of January, we have lots of upcoming data including December Inflation CPI, Jobs Report(s)/Unemployment Data (UNRATE), Producer Price Index (PPIACO), Leading Economic Data such as the OECD Composite Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM), Upcoming Q4/22' Earnings Releases, etc., of which is seems markets are staying relatively "pinned" for the time being until this data starts hitting the markets & investors come back from the extended holiday season. Per our "40-Bar Cycle" chart, while I expect that this next down-leg in SPY SPX will likely play out as shown in the in the charts. However, do keep in mind that there are some seasonal tailwinds & also some tailwinds for markets regarding mid-term election cycles. Here is what history tells us about pre-presidential election mid-term seasonality: 🇺🇸🗳🗓 “Third year pre-presidential election is the strongest.” (Up Double Digits, Historically) Dow = 19.3% (Since 1949) Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 = 20% (Since 1949) SPY SPX ES1! Nasdaq = 29.3% (Since 1971) QQQ NQ1! Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycles Data Explained via Twitter Space 🔊: twitter.com SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Lowering, But High Inflation aka Stagflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into Q1/23', as mid-term election/pre-presidential cycle seasonality kicks in & also as the economy proves more "strong" than many are discounting (Peak Inflation + Light Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED via Pending 'Pause' + Nominal Earnings "Resiliency"). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPY
by kylemusserco
3
1871-2022 S&P 500 Secular Bull vs. Bear Markets SPX SPY I wanted to share this chart, as a couple of things stood out when thinking about past bull & bear secular market cycles vs. the current secular bull market that we’ve been in for the last 10+ years since the 08-09’ GFC (Great Financial Crisis). First , for those who say “investors can't or shouldn’t time the markets", I very much disagree with this logic (or Wall Street marketing) as there are plenty of signals, cyclical trends, leading indicators, etc., that give investors clues as to what likely lies ahead — based on probabilities. And while nobody can be 100% certain as to the exact pathway of markets, given the macro cross-currents that are in front of us — we can 100% say that we have been & still are in a secular bull market. Until this trend changes, the “crash” that many were calling for in 22’, if not expecting for 23’ could possibly take longer to play out than many realize when looking at previous bull vs. bear secular market cycles. Second , looking at the attached chart(s), this is also why timing and duration matter. If you are entering retirement toward the latter part of a secular bull market, it might be best to reduce risk & shift from capital appreciation to capital preservation. Examples of this include leading up The Great Depression, 1950’s post-WWII boom prior to the 1970’s Stagflation Era, & into the end of the Tech Boom of the .com era leading into 2001. On the flip side, if you are in your saving years (20’s-30’s+), then it is during these secular bear markets that you really want to be accumulating & building your asset base for the next bull market phase that is likely ahead in the coming years as the trend higher always begins during the bear market bottoming process (see dotted black lines on charts). Third , looking at the current cycle & zooming in on the charts from yearly (large picture) to monthly chart — we can see that we are still technically in a secular bull market. And considering the previous two major bull market cycles of the 1950/60’s (18 years) & 1980’s up until the early 2000’s (19 years), one could make a case that we are only about halfway through this current bull cycle (9 years). Do I think this is absolutely the case? Personally , I do not as there are issues regarding demographics, de-globalization, inflation/stagflation/deflation, boomers retiring en-masse, etc., that will likely put further pressure on asset markets throughout this decade. What do you think about this historical analysis? Are we going to break this secular bull market cycle & enter a secular new bear market? Or, are are just in a corrective phase within the broader bull market cycle? CHART NOTE: Recessions = Shaded Red Areas Chart #1 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Returns Chart Data via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low: Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%. Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%. Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio. Chart #2 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Secular Highs & Lows via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #3 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Regression to Trend via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #4 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Regression Channel via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #5 (Monthly): *1920-1972* (Great Depression & Post-WWII) 📊 *Note that during the Great Depression/WWII, as Ray Dalio has pointed out in his recent book "The Changing World Order" this was a prolonged period of negative to very low returns.* 📖 www.economicprinciples.org Chart #6 (Monthly): *1972-2022* (70’s Stagflation, 80’s "Greed is Good" markets & 90’s dot.com Boom, 08’ GFC, & 2010’s QE 1/2/3, 20’ Covid Crash, & 21-22’ Inflation/Interest Rate Shock Correction) 📊 *Note that we are still in a secular bull market uptrend, when looking at the monthly charts. Until this trend breaks down, there is market support for a continuation of this trend.* Pre-Covid High = Red Dotted Line ($3,393.52) Post-Covid High = Green Dotted Line ($4,816.62) Chart #6 (Monthly): *1871-2022* (MACD) 📊
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco
3
U.S. Stock Market: What To Expect In 2023? 2022 has become the most volatile year in a decade: the world economy is going through tough times, central banks are struggling with high inflation, and the stock market has been under pressure from a bearish trend since the beginning of the year. Will the situation change in 2023 and what should investors expect? The main reason for the decline in the U.S. stock market this year has been higher inflation and the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) response to curb inflation. June saw record inflation data which broke a 40-year high and cemented a bearish trend in the market which had been going on since the beginning of the year. As history shows, the average bear market since World War II has lasted 14 months and resulted in declines of more than 30% from previous highs. The current trend has now lasted more than 11 months. From this, we can conclude that statistically speaking, we are two-thirds of the way through. In addition, one of the fundamental reasons why the market will show strong growth soon is the excess of money from investors. A serious bear market forms precisely when people start selling stocks when they are in need of money. Right now, investors are selling stocks simply because they are afraid of losing value. But such corrections always come to an end pretty quickly, replaced by an equally tumultuous rise. Investors are holding huge amounts of cash right now, and the money supply is at record levels. That gives confidence that markets will rebound quickly. Better now is the opportunity to buy companies with strong financial fundamentals at a discounted price. In addition, inflation in the U.S. continues to slow: November data showed a decline to 7.1%, which exceeded analysts' expectations. The dynamics of inflation and the rate of its slowdown are a certain signal of the Fed's successful policy, giving additional hope to stock market participants that the regulator will start easing its monetary policy this year. Basically, experts consider three scenarios for the U.S. economy this year: Optimistic Scenario. Economic activity continues to slow down, and the economy remains under pressure, but growth remains at 1%. Inflation slows at an accelerated pace, and the Fed may cut the rate to 4.25%, by the end of 2023. Moderate Recession. The economy may experience a mild recession during the first half of 2023, but by the second half of 2023, economic activity recovers, the Fed cuts the rate to 4.75%, and signals further easing of monetary policy while maintaining a downward trend in inflation. Stagflation. This scenario is based on a more sustained inflation trend in 2023, which encourages the Fed to take more aggressive steps and allows rates to be cut only to 5.5% at the end of 2023. However, the likelihood of this scenario developing is very low, as inflation is already showing a good rate of deceleration. At the same time, some believe that the U.S. can avoid a recession this year and go with the optimistic scenario. The stock market is supported by strong economic macro data and some issuers have already proven their ability to withstand a rate hike. The stock market has fallen on fears and expectations last year, but in such situations, fear quickly changes to euphoria. There is potential in the U.S. stock market, and we should not rule out the possibility that the S&P 500 index could gain 15% in 2023 from current positions.
SP:SPXLong
by FOREXN1
17
Time Cycle analysis SP500I'm in the camp that believes the S&P500 is in a megabubble. The pattern that has formed over the past 25 years is identical to most other bubbles with each feature being clearly defined. I'm a huge fan of cycle analysis and use it on shorter timeframes for trading. However here we are looking at a more macro level analysis using only large cycles. Cycles on this time frame are never going to be precise, and only provide a general range to watch for bottoming processes at. The current red cycle shown has the next trough (buy zone) around the middle of 2024. That coincides with the approximate time the fed has stated it will begin reducing rates, which gives it some extra validity (even though I came up with these cycles way before the crash even began!). There is also a double cycle trough zone in 2028 and 2029 afterwards, usually such a pattern signifies some type of double bottom. If these cycles are correct, there is huge opportunity to be had from the 2024 cycle trough going long. If that is not 'the' bottom of this crash, then a significant rebound will likely still happen from that area. This overall 20 year long pattern does not end well in nearly all cases I have seen it, and in my opinion has the potential to bring the S&P 500 down into the 2000-2400 area. Do NOT underestimate how low a crash can go before it bottoms. It's also worth taking a look at the volume profile that has formed over the course of this megabubble. And as always, this is my personal opinion and is NOT advice and your own trading is at your own risk, do your own DD.
SP:SPXLong
by thestructured
1
S&P500 Analysis 29.12.2022Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational analysis. I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities. If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below. I will personally reply to every single comment! If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
OANDA:SPX500USD
by basictradingtv
20
The Downside is Still the Dominant TrendI know that many are waiting for a Santa Claus rally this year. They may get something that resembles it, but if you are a trader there is one thing that you may need to focus on more than that potential rally. Hedge like your life depended on it. The next batch of economic data may not reflect a market that is ready to rally on to All Time Highs. In fact it may show that the global economy is weakening and two shades away from failing. So traders should use any upside as an opportunity to go short into 2023. By all means if you feel like there may be upside going into 2023, my advice would be to put a dollar toward the long side for ever 4 you put toward the short.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by D1Finance
S&P500 trades in consolidation. What is the next direction?The S&P500 traded in a range between 3800 region and 3900 region this week. This week price action played out exactly based on what we mentioned on our previous post that bearish momentum is likely to pause before heading to the 3815 region. Price rejected the 3915 resistance region before dipping lower. Any breakout confirmation of the 3915 resistance region can potentially indicate more upside movement while any breakout confirmation of the 3815 region can potentially indicate more downside movement.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TrainingTrader