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Long S&P500S&P500 tapped its major uptrend supports last week and is holding above them. Great time to go long. It's quite unlikely to go much lower. Targets are around 4500 if/when the first major downtrend breaks (likely given the amount of short positions needing to cover). After that there is one last significant resistance above the last all time high around 4800. If that breaks, the S&P500 is poised for another mid 1990's or mid 1950's bull market that will eventually lead to the type of bear market everyone is predicting now (I wouldn't start looking for a 50% crash until around 2030). EUR/USD hit major support and is likely headed much higher. This means the dollar index is likely done rising. With the dollar falling, assets are likely to become less correlated and stocks can get back on their uptrend. Good luck out there!
SP:SPXLong
by bwy
3
RUT @ the gate of "Havens", if rejected only "Hell" is the ALT !Golden Cross vs. Death Cross: An Overview Technical analysis involves the use of statistical analysis to make trading decisions. Technical analysts use a ton of data, often in the form of charts, to analyze stocks and markets. At times, the trend lines on these charts curve and cross in ways that form shapes, often given funny names like "cup with handle," "head and shoulders," and "double top." Technical traders learn to recognize these common patterns and what they might portend for the future performance of a stock or market. A golden cross and a death cross are exact opposites. A golden cross indicates a long-term bull market going forward, while a death cross signals a long-term bear market. Both refer to the solid confirmation of a long-term trend by the occurrence of a short-term moving average crossing over a major long-term moving average. KEY TAKEAWAYS A golden cross suggests a long-term bull market going forward, while a death cross suggests a long-term bear market. Either crossover is considered more significant when accompanied by high trading volume. Once the crossover occurs, the long-term moving average is considered a major support level (in the case of the golden cross) or resistance level (in the instance of the death cross) for the market from that point forward. Either cross may occur as a signal of a trend change, but they more frequently occur as a strong confirmation of a change in trend that has already taken place.
AMEX:IWM
by samitrading
Is it the end of the bear-market rally on the S&P 500?Volatility was high during the Asian and US session yesterday, which saw a reversal of fortunes for the Japanese yen and the US dollar track Wall Street lower by the close on concerns the US is already in a recession. The yen originally weakened and sent USD/JPY over 250 pips higher as the BOJ did absolutely nothing, catching pre-emptive hawkish bets off guard. Yes with US retail sales sinking to a 12-month low at -1.1% m/m, then industrial production and manufacturing output falling –0.7% m/m and -1.3% respectively, it seems ‘happy new year’ is a distant memory and bears are coming out of hibernation. The Dow Jones led Wall Street lower (-1.8%) followed by the S&P 500 (-1.56%) and the Nasdaq (-1.3%). It also dragged the dollar lower as traders bet on a lower terminal Fed rate, seeing USD/JPY hand back most of its earlier gains. AUD, CAD and oil were also dragged lower as recession concerns dominated sentiment. S&P 500 daily chart: The S&P has stalled at an interesting juncture, and one that may prove to be a major swing high, during its worst session in 21. A large bearish ingulfing candle formed following an intraday false break of 4,000, trend resistance and the 200-day MA. Also note how the S&P has struggled previously at the 50-day MA back in August and twice in December. Volume was also above average to show conviction in the down-day, and the OBV (on balance volume) has been trending lower since November, despite the S&P’s rally since October, to show that bearish volume is dominating overall. Have we just seen the end of a bear-market rally? Possibly, perhaps not. But it does appear that a prominent swing high has formed • Our bias remains bearish below 4016 with an initial target at 3800 • Bears could either enter a break of yesterday’s low, or seek to fade into rallies with yesterday’s bearish candle (this potentially increases the reward to risk ratio) • If confident this is the end of a bear-market rally, bears could keep an open downside target and manage with a wider stop as it moves lower to managed the inevitable whipsaws along the way
SP:SPXShort
by CityIndex
S&P 500 market will open for the forth day todayThe S&P500 index yesterday closed at its highest trade line level in three days at 3,999.26 as investors turned to US stocks. Most of the gains in this week's pullback in US stock prices have been led by bank stocks as well as shares of some media companies, which were probably untapped by individuals and businesses. The S&P is now up 5.2% this week This is not a piece of financial advice. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
FRED:SP500
by CryptoSanders9563
MAJOR resistance test for the marketsAttempting to identify the end of Intermediate B has been waves of fun and plenty of misses. While there is no prescribed metrics on what the wave’s overall movement and duration should be, historical metrics have been quite reliable (most of the time). That has not been the case during this chase for Intermediate wave B. I have not given up and caved to the belief that the major uptrend has begun yet. We should still move down in an Intermediate wave C which will also close out Primary wave B (corrective downward wave). Here is my Elliott wave outline of Primary wave B so far. Primary wave A ended with the peak in the first hour of trading on December 1, 2022 (light blue colored-encircled letter A). Primary wave B is comprised of 3 subwaves (Intermediate waves). Intermediate wave A (magenta letter A in parenthesis) ended with a low on December 22, 2022 and has yet to be broken. I currently have placed Intermediate wave B’s endpoint at the high from January 13, although this could still change in the next few trading days. My Elliott Wave, Wave 3 finder, identifies wave 3 and other reversal extremes such as the end of waves 2, 4, and B. This indicator is toward the bottom of my charts. The signals are a magenta background bar when entering a reversal that will see the equity move up soon and a lighter blue background color when the equity has topped and will revert to the downside. The Minor waves reside inside each Intermediate wave and are colored with yellow letters or numbers Minute waves are inside of each Minor wave and they are colored with light green alpha numerals. My wave 3 indicator mainly spots wave 3 of 3 which was the case midday on December 16 and early morning on January 9. This is why I am confident that Intermediate A was placed correctly, and we are still in Intermediate wave B for the moment. We are finally approaching a major level of resistance which has held strong since January 2022. We have not had a daily bar that has closed above the thick red-dotted line. This will be tested within the next 3 days. An alternative location if we break through the resistance and keep moving higher is that we are indeed in Primary wave C and should continue upward toward 4400-4600. If this path plays out, Primary wave B would have ended on December 22. Here is a chart of this alternative course and where we may be today: I do not like this due to the pace of Cycle wave B. Cycle wave B began at the current market low from October. The original expectation was that it would ultimately trend upward until Summer 2023. If this alternative were true, the market top would probably occur within another month, maybe two at the most. While this is not impossible, and potentially practical, the historical relationships between the macro and minor waves do not support this outcome. IF WE JUST ENDED INTERMEDIATE WAVE B: The following projection will only be a rough estimate of where Intermediate C down inside of Primary B would take us IF Intermediate wave B indeed ended at the market high on Friday January 13, 2023. Based on historical waves ending in 2BBC, potential wave durations based on data quartiles are 6, 11, 28, or 41 trading days. Movement extension in relation to Intermediate wave A’s movement are 127.13%, 130.095% and 133.06%. These percentages and levels have not changed since my analysis two weeks ago and are the light blue lines. The only new difference based on waves ending in BBC are the potential wave durations as well. Most model agreement is with a duration of 10 & 28 days. There is a large tie for second most at 5-8, 11, 12, 14, 15, 19, 24, 31, & 41 days. For waves ending in BC, most model agreement is at a length of 14 trading days. Second most is at 14 days, third most at 42 days. Fourth most ties at 7, 8, & 10 trading days. Fifth is 5, 19, 28, & 56 days. Historically wave C can be equal to the length of waves A + B. Intermediate wave A was 15 days long and wave B for the moment is at 14 days. Based on all this data, 28 days may be around the maximum length for Intermediate wave C. This date February 24th. Another potential length is 11 days, which while less than both Intermediate waves A or B, it aligns with the next Fed meeting and rate hike. The only near-term catalysts for market decline occurring immediately would be earnings in which the season just began. The Fed will not meet for a few more weeks and that is too deep into the projected decline to be a cause of the decline. The Fed would most likely signal the bottom if they hold to the market’s current expectation of a 25 or 50 basis point hike. Bottom line is we should decline at least one more time to retest the December lows before moving upward. The resistance test early this week will show us if that decline will occur. I will conduct a market re-look after this week plays out.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
S&P500: Don't push it 🚫The S&P500 is currently wandering sideways and doesn't really know, where it's heading. We're currently expecting the course to sink further South, but there is a slight temptation to cross the resistance line at 4026 points. In our alternative scenario with a probability of 30%, the course could dig a bit deeper to finish the pink wave alt. II, before exceeding the resistance mark at 4026 points for good. Primarily, the S&P500 should fall below the support line at 3788 points to complete the blue wave . Once achieved, we're predicting steady upwards pulses in the longterm.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
Ridiculous play incomingMarket trying to front run the fed, and trying to convince fed itself that fed is going to pivot XD (like a bunch of degenerates). And celebrating the likelihood of 25 bps like it's the start of bull market, even though several members of the fed this week have been hawkish. Even Jerome Powell himself has said, fed will have to do something the majority wouldn't like. Anyways this is kind of ridiculous but here is my expectation XD. Currently we got rejected several time near the year long bear channel resistance.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by jobanis
4
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 80% SPX, 20% Cash. * GOLDEN CROSS WATCH . US December CPI came in 0.1% lower than in November (which saw a rise of 0.1% from October), whereas Core CPI came in 0.3% higher than in November (which saw a rise of 0.2% from October). The UofM Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) for January is currently 64.6 , up from 59.7 in December. The current GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate is 4.1% , up from 3.8% on 01/05/23. It seems as though markets are pricing in a "turnaround in inflation", but with Russia/Ukraine and ongoing supply chain disruptions from China it is likely premature to make such an assessment. Additionally, CPI is conflated and this is largely because the cost of gas has been falling in recent months; this is due to to a combination of: weakening demand from China amidst record COVID cases and resulting lockdowns; a price cap on Russian oil; a dramatic slowing of travel in the winter season (US); and lingering effects of the US government tapping into the SPR. Russia deciding to ban oil exports to any organization or country supporting the $60 price cap begins on February 1st and the next OPEC meeting could result in a cut to production in effort to boost prices. Cryptos are mixed. US Treasuries are up. Key Upcoming Dates: US December PPI at 830AM EST 01/18; US December Retail Sales at 830AM EST 01/18; Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 01/18; US Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2PM EST 01/18; US December Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830AM EST 01/19; US Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard (FOMC member) Speech at 1:15PM EST 01/19; US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (FOMC member) Speech at 1PM EST 01/20. * Price is currently testing the 200MA at $4k as resistance. Volume remains Moderate (moderate) and has favored buyers for the last four sessions as Price trades in the Point of Control. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3810, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently forming a soft peak at 61 as it approaches 68.42 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending sideways at max top (it can remain in this 'bullish autobahn' for a few sessions). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 14.5 as it breaks above the uptrend line from March 2020, if it can sustain this momentum then it will likely test next resistance is at 33.08. ADX is currently trending up at 15 as Price continues to trend up, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to break above the 200MA with conviction, the next likely target is a retest of $4058 minor resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely test the 50AM at $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3913 .
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
$SPY Monthly 9/21 Death Cross - WARNINGThe only other time the 9EMA crossed under the 21EMA on the monthly was the 2000 Dot Com & 2008 Great Financial Crisis. (Noted with the blue + symbols & down arrows). Each time, the RSI was near 50. Each time, the ADX indicator has been lower than the preceding level (in the 20s, WEAK - NO TREND. The massive drop in monthly volume should be noted. When the next BIG DIRECTIONAL MOVE comes, it'll be accompanied by VOLUME & a rise in the ADX (to STRONG TREND). If this 3rd time ever 9/21 DEATH CROSS is like the other two, a MASSIVE WATERFALL SELLOFF could occur. If such an event occurs, FEAR WILL SPREAD causing a MASSIVE VOLATILITY SURGE. I'm HEDGED for crisis with $UVIX $UVXY. My suspicions point toward a DEBT BUBBLE IMPLOSION. Protect your #kingdollar. GL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by EpicEconomics
2
S&P500 A-B-C Corrections Complete After A Break Above "B" LevelAfter successfully forming inverted head and shoulders, S&P500 picks up bullish momentum and now on the verge of breaking downward trendline used to trace swing highs from early 2022. A break above "b" level of the A-B-C corrections will indicate possible potential of the index to re-test January 2022 swing high. IF perhaps the index then struggles breaking "b" level, bears might likely take over... N.B - Let emotions and sentiments work for you -ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #s&p500 #spx500
FX:SPX500Long
by BullBearMkt
SP500 | SPY - Bottom for the bearmarketIf we look at the rising trendline from 2008 you can see that we have a strong support there around 320 SPY . The fibonachis line up pretty well with that too. We also have strong support around that level from the coronadays. If you measure in M2 supply you can clearly see that we should atleast go down to 2000 levels, low as 2008 may be a overreaction. With the current market condition, high rates + high inflation + energy crisis + credit card debt at ATH I believe we should go lower down. RSI does also point that we should go lower if we are going into a similiar bearmarket as 00 and 08. The drop from top to bottom will be lower than 00 and 08 but there is many more people invested in the market today than it was at that time, which will make a difference. We also dropped 2 years ago during covid, and that was a massive drop, due to that drop we may not need to drop as much as 50% this time. During the coming earnings this Q1, We will see many companies with lower earnings . Due to lower spending from customers, expensive goods and a smaller workforce. 320 SPY may be the bottom and that is where I will start buy. The road to that bottom could vary, The potential for more upside is still likely but if so we need to break the decending trendline which will be very hard to break. NFA DYOR Good Luck /aFinancialMind
AMEX:SPYShort
by WealthNode