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S&P500: U.S. Jobs Data Impact on Expected Fed Rate HikeOn the daily chart of the S&P 500, the Federal Funds futures indicate a probability of nearly 60% for a 50 basis point rate hike. Today's release of U.S. employment data may either reinforce the possibility of a 50 bps rate hike or tilt the balance towards a smaller increase of 25 bps. Experts predict that the U.S. economy will see the addition of around 200,000 new nonfarm jobs in February, with a projected increase in wages from 4.4% to 4.7%, and a steady unemployment rate of 3.4%. Ideally, weaker U.S. jobs data would be preferable. Otherwise, the Federal Reserve may have to take action by implementing a 50 bps rate hike this month, which could speed up the decline in stock prices. If today's U.S. jobs data is below expectations, it may push back the anticipated Fed rate hike to 25 bps. On the other hand, if the employment data is strong, it will likely solidify the idea of a 50bp Fed rate hike later this month, resulting in higher yields and U.S. dollars but lower stocks.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FOREXN1
5
03/20/2023 (Monday) SPY and Market Analysis and Deep Dive into cIn this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities. You can use the links below and hit play to see the progression of these indicators from when I initially published them. Please remember to like and subscribe in You Tube or Follow and Boost In Trading View. The feedback is very welcome also.
TVC:VIXLong
by Markets-Sniper
SPX500: Testing Support, 3 Scenarios.The S&P 500 index dropped to test the lower trendline of the ascending channel, which also corresponds to the support level of 4000.0, the 23.6% Fibonacci level, and the intersection of the 50-day moving average. It is likely that the price will rebound towards the level of 4085.0, with three potential scenarios: 1- The price fails to make a new high and tests the neckline of the Double Top pattern to continue its downward movement. 2- The price surpasses the level of 4085.0 and reaches the level of 4160.0, but fails to make a new high above the previous peak that lasted from February 1st to February 20th. Momentum indicators show a divergence indicating the formation of a Double Top pattern with a neckline at 4085.0. 3- The price surpasses both levels of 4085.0 and 4160.0 and aims to continue its upward movement in the current ascending channel, with a target of 4300.0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and show your support by liking the idea. Please follow if you're interested in more ideas like this. Your support is greatly appreciated!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Candlestick_OB
US500, D1|Potential bearish breakoutBanking crises in the U.S. and Switzerland have shaken financial markets causing price to breakthrough 1st support Entry: 3,858.85 Why we like it: Price has broken through 1st support Stop Loss: 4,052.71 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance Take Profit: 3,755.50 Why we like it: There is an overlap support Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
UShort
by VantageMarkets
The Story Behind Bulls and BearsHello @TradingView family , this is @Vestinda, and let's have some fun and enjoy the markets together. Vestinda is driven to offer our knowledge in developing winning strategies and make traders tasks easier. This is The Story About Bulls and Bears. Bulls can lift things up, Bears can eat you for lunch. Who Are The "Bulls" And The "Bears" In The Market The terms "bulls" and "bears" are included in the trader's slang as the main categories of players in the market. Understanding the technique of the game will help you to understand the intricacies of how the market works. "Bulls" are buying investors. Like their totem, they lift the enemy up on the horns. "Bulls" buy, wait for the rising rate and sell at a higher price. They dream of a prosperous economy: the lower the unemployment rate, the higher the GDP, the faster markets grow. Warren Buffett - the most famous representative of the bulls . The Bears play on the opposite side. They earn on the depreciation, in a fading economy. Their ideal world is high unemployment, low GDP and large-scale crises. It all starts long before the collapse of the market: the “bears” buy on credit and immediately resell, artificially creating a drop in prices. After the price becomes cheaper, they are purchased again, but at a lower price, and the debt is repaid. The difference between the first and second purchases is the profit of the bears. 💲 How Bulls Make Money On The Market 💲 "Bulls" buy, when they are sure that the market will go up. Examples of situations where this is possible: 🟣 the shareholder enterprise has published a financial report, and the figures exceeded forecasts; 🟣 the new reform allows to pay less taxes, thereby increasing profits; 🟣 the company has introduced a new product, which, according to analysts, will be in great demand; 🟣 the level of well-being, salary and solvency of the population are growing, which has a beneficial effect on the company's profit. Bullish trades take time – you have to wait to make money. "Bears" are distinguished by shorter trades and the prospect of quick earnings. A red flag for the bulls is an increase in prices by 20% from the lows and the presence of strong prerequisites for further growth. The most favorable moment comes when there are more buyers than sellers on the market. 📍 There Are 4 Key Phases Of A Bull Market:📍 1️⃣ "bearish" trends are gradually fading; 2️⃣ the backdrop of negative news has ended, but there is no confidence in future growth yet, the market is moving sideways, the growth of prices alternates with a fall; 3️⃣ the economy is going up, volatility is decreasing, investors are optimistic; 4️⃣ the peak of growth, traders make easy profits. The market trends are cyclical, a bull market becomes overbought over time and inevitably turns into a bear market. The move up can be uneven, with periods of pullbacks and corrections, that provide an opportunity to profit on counter-trend trades. As a rule, prices didn't rise as quickly and unpredictably as they fall. Therefore, transactions in the "bullish" market are characterized by a longer period, the so-called "long positions". Both own and borrowed money, shares and other assets, which are returned after closing, act as collateral. Long positions are considered more stable, predictable and calm. Therefore the majority of market participants are "bulls" (or consider themselves so). In an uptrend, it's easy to choose an investment because almost everything goes up. However, the "bulls" need to be careful and remember, that there is no eternal growth, the market can be oversaturated at any moment, turning in the opposite direction. It is important for conservative traders to exit the game on time. 💲 How Bears Make Money On The Market 💲 The bears enter the arena during a downturn in the economy and prices. Their tactic is to sell at the beginning of a downtrend and then buy at the end of a downtrend. If they guess the high and low points of the bear market, they will receive the maximum margin. Examples of situations, that will play into the hands of this category of traders: 🟣 there were large-scale economic crises, force majeure situations, natural disasters, epidemics, wars; 🟣 the shareholder enterprise found itself in the center of a scandal or changed its general director; 🟣 sales of the new product failed. A "bear" market comes into its own, when prices fall by 20% from the maximum. There are 4 main stages of the trend: 1️⃣ the bull market is oversaturated and goes into overbought phase; 2️⃣ against the backdrop of negative sentiment, prices fall sharply, and trading activity decreases, panic arises on the market; 3️⃣ prices fell quite strongly, but continue to gradually decline, at this time “bears” enter the market en masse; 4️⃣ seduced by cheaper prices, conservative investors become more active, due to which the market gradually turns in the opposite direction. Thus, the "bear" market is gradually replaced by a "bullish" one. Can a Bull become a Bear? In fact, these divisions are rather arbitrary, they were created by exchange slang. Officially, in the market, you do not need to indicate yourself in which category you belong, so no need to be a bull or a bear all your life. Traders' strategies are good because they can be adapted or completely changed to specific conditions on the exchange. It's not always possible to sell shares at the maximum or buy at the minimum price, so you have to adjust to the average attitude. Therefore, a “bull” can become a “bear”, just like a “bear” can become a “bull”. Conclusion: What are Bulls and Bears in Trading? Bulls and Bears are two sides of the stock market. Bulls are traders who believe that the stock prices will go up, while bears are traders who think that the stock prices will go down. In trading, these two forces are constantly at work, and understanding their roles can help you make better decisions when it comes to investing. Bulls and Bears play an important role in trading as they provide insight on the direction of a particular security or market trend. By understanding their roles in trading, investors can more accurately predict future price movements and make more profitable trades. Dear friends, this is our first post. 😊 If you liked it, press <> 👍, share it on your social networks, groups - it will allow more people get interesting information, and we'll be able to delight you with new posts even more!♥️
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Vestinda
4
SP500 a short term outlook 🦐Based on the 4-hour timeframe, there are clear indications of a bearish trend in the S&P 500 index. After testing the weekly resistance level at 4160, the market started a bearish move with a series of lower lows and lower highs. Further analysis shows that the market retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level after the first bearish impulse and tested a daily resistance level perfectly. This level is known as an inversion point, indicating a high likelihood of the market reversing its trend. From there, the price created a second impulse toward the lower weekly support, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. As such, it may be wise to wait for a new opportunity to set a nice short order in anticipation of further price declines according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by InkyGrip
6
SMC SPX500 Price might go up but I'm looking for shorts onlyWe are looking at the SP500 on 15 minute time frame. we see two Dotted lines - Green - Daily High of the previous day Red - Daily LOW of the previous day The daily trend is DOWN - so Daily Bias is look for shorts. The first hour, the market came down and formed a new low before we had a break of structure to the upside. This forms what's known as Sell Side LIquidity - Order Block. WHy? Because Smart Money goes down and sweeps liquidity where they buy into the market for the day. Next we can expect the prices to move up then retrace BACK into the LIquidity zone. Once this happens EITHER the market will move up for the rest of the day where intraday traders will go long. Or it will break below and form lower lows forming Buy side Liquidity (stopping buyers out). We ONLY will short the market because Daily Bias is bearish... So even if the market goes up, there will be no trade. If Buy Side Liquidity Order Block Forms we will have a trade to go short. I'll be waiting - what are your thoughts?
SP:SPXShort
by Timonrosso
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 03/15Look Before You Jump! The banking meltdown seems to be spreading across the globe, and it could potentially be just the tip of the iceberg. When something doesn't feel right, stay away from it. There are going to be plenty of trading/investment opportunity down the road - sitting on the sidelines for a day or two does not harm your financial well being; rather, it could enhance it. With the situation still so fluid, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines unless you are extremely adept at navigating volatile markets. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 03/15: Aggressive Intraday Models: With all the volatility - reminiscent of the dot com bubble burst and the 2008 GFC eras - in the markets due to the ongoing banking meltdown, it could be wiser to not engage in intraday aggressive trading for today, especially given the static nature of our trading plans. Nevertheless, for those of you who MUST trade (professional trader? addicted trader? whatever may be your reason), models indicate the below trading plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3872 or 3852 with a 10-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3867, 3860, or 3848 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 3864. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:45am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #pce
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
The current context is serious | Forex-Indices-Stocks-Crypto |It seems that inflation is considered the devil for the markets, so the focus will be on the next Fed meeting scheduled for March 22nd. Last week we saw a strong increase in NFP and this could be the first sign of a hawkish FED, but this week we will see the second and final sign for the markets: CPI release. These two drivers will complete the big economic figure ahead of the interest rate announcement. In recent weeks Governor J.P has been under a lot of pressure from the financial community (including Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary and former Fed Governor) due to the large risk of contraction and the impact of such aggressive monetary policy. But perhaps the news about failure of some banks could prove to be a strong ally of Powell. Why am I saying that? If the Fed's target is to drag the US economy into a mild recession to try and get inflation back to around 2 percent, concern that these two failures could be contagious within the banking sector could help Powell achieve the first target: "bring down inflation...". Even the geopolitical context should not be underestimated: The war in Ukraine and China-United States tensions over Taiwan. We will see the impact on the main markets (dollar, SP500, gold...) in the second part of this analysis.
by TheAnonymousBanker
5
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 03/13The Banking Meltdown Rollercoaster Does NOT Bode Disaster! The banking meltdown that started last week is now being stemmed by the Fed, with the new Fed facility extended to the banks for liquidity. Despite the failures of SVB, Signature Bank, and Silvergate, do NOT bet against the Fed's ability to stave off economic disasters in the U.S. There is no better country or financial markets that one can turn to if the U.S. markets themselves fail, whether one likes it or not. With the situation still so fluid, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines unless you are extremely adept at navigating volatile markets. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 03/13: Aggressive Intraday Models: With all the volatility - reminiscent of the dot com bubble burst and the 2008 GFC eras - in the markets due to the ongoing banking meltdown, it could be wiser to not engage in intraday aggressive trading for today, especially given the static nature of our trading plans. Nevertheless, for those of you who MUST trade (professional trader? addicted trader? whatever may be your reason), models indicate the below trading plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3896, 3881, 3865, or 3838 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3890, 3878, 3859, or 3833 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit short exits or long exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:45am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #pce
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
⚠️ 🔥 Red Alert - S&P at thin Support Banks running in trouble, the FEDS want to hike but not sure if they can and S&P500 is attemtping to enter back into the previous descending channel. This support now is becoming thinner as a rebound is not happening. thus i see a danger for 3700 or even 3400-3200 which would be a massive blow for the markets. We will be awaiting for the CPI inflation to be released tomorrow as well as the news on the banks. US can easily find solution for 1-2 banks (even top-20 ones) but if the crisis escalates we could be up for negative surprises. Check my posts today on that matter. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR Ps. I like buying Bitcoin these days:
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by FX_Professor
S&P 500 (SPX): Long Term Analysis 1872-2023Hi everybody! Sometimes it could be useful to look back a bit to have clear in mind where we are and where we want to go. This chart shows the trend of S&P500 since 1800'. Great Depression, Oil Crisis, Tango Bonds,... have always been great opportunities for the market. That said, the market is mainly made up of "emotions" that trigger certain movements, so opportunities have always existed, exist, and will exist in the future.... MARKET EMOTIONS CYCLE Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! N.B.: Updates will follow below
SP:SPXShort
by TheAnonymousBanker
14
🟨 SP500 based on YoY GDP ChangeVolatility in many times in the market is bad and the stock market is a mirror of the economy. When you go back prior to the Great Bull Market (1980s), you wll see that there were very wide swings in real GDP. These are the Boom and Bust cycle. Now, as the FED evolved its policies it learned how to contain the market and flatten the Boom and Bust cycle and flatten the economy. And you can see that when we have the low volatility in GDP, the market has been very much accustomed to this. However post 2020 we are more volatile then ever. This is exactly why the FED is stepping hard on the breaks until they for sure put a cap on the upside and on the inflationary side. It is again interesting to see that Volatility is just bad for the market.
SP:SPX
by TintinTrading