AZUL stock entry approachingI believe the stock can provide a minimum of 100% ROI if we managed to get a good entry under 5 USD. Airline industry got hit strong after the pandemic but it will recover sooner or later
Sp500index
s&p is in last correction s&p is in last correction , after complete wave d and e of contracting triangle , we see all time high
Market AnalysisUnemployment claims are lower than expected (down)
GDP is only 1.1% (the dollar will rise slightly)
Personal expenditures are fronted by 1%, soaring to 3.7% (bad)
Core PCE increased from 4.4% to 4.9% (bearish)
Analysis:
The U.S. economy is worse than expected and has clearly entered a recession. However, inflation and personal consumption are set to soar, proving that QT isn't enough. After this data, big possibility for FED to raise more interest rate. The stock market and crypto will at least dump for another 10% or more.
Personal market analysis, for reference only
SPX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 04/27Big Tech Earnings to Trump Economic Slowdown Concerns?
Yesterday evening's strong earnings from Meta seems to be adding to the tone of impressive earnings from Microsoft, Google, McDonalds, and Chipotle that all seem to demonstrate that major firms have pricing power to absorb the inflationary pressures. Continued big tech earnings momentum into the next week, peaking with Apple's earnings next Thursday, might try to buoy the markets into the next few days. It remains to be seen how sustainable this push up would prove to be.
Our models show no bullish trend in sight for these markets, at least for now. Bears need to be cautious against taking on any shorts prematurely.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models, while flashing early bearish signs, indicate no trading plans for today.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for THU. 04/27:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4115, 4108, 4100, or 4085 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4104, 4096, or 4088 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4111. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 1:01 pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #bigtech, #earnings
SP500 Short Term Sell IdeaH4 - Price is bouncing lower from a strong resistance zone.
Bearish divergence.
Uptrend line breakout.
H1 - Bearish trend pattern.
Currently it looks like a pullback is happening.
Until the two strong resistance zones hold my short term view remains bearish here.
BTCUSDT 4hHi Guys,
btc and crypto markets jumped after SP500 poor day -negative correlation days equities strengthen probability of independent crypto breakouts,
SecondChanceCrypto
⏰26/April/23
⛔️(DYOR)
always do your research.
If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them.
And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
S&P500 at resistance zone... where next?SPX at resistance where last breakout reversed and came back down to retest the trend line. Trendline held and SPX rose back and is now near the resistance level. Notice the lower volume over the past few trading periods as the price has neared resistance.
Do you think it will break above resistance or fall back for a second retest? Haven't checked the Put/Call ratios yet on SPY but that would probs give an indication of where the smart money is going.
Almost looks like Wyckoff Accumulation SchematicJust a quick thought - the main difference here b/w a typical Wycoff accumulation schematic is that the chart above didn't have a selling climax first prior to its automatic rally. However, since then it has behaved as-if it is in Phase B.
I have a much simpler idea for SPX / SP500 that is linked in the related ideas below.
3 stocks to buy nowABCL, TGNA and BOXL are showing great entries for long term investments that may provide more than 300% return. Interest rate cuts may accelerate the process.
Price action needs to close above X leg & wave 4 $412im a buyer of the dips. looking for previous resistances to become future support . The uptrend is intact , in fact this is a bear trap. Notice how buyers stepped in on C wave of the ABCD pattern, when it retraced. Bears are trying hard to push this to wave 2 near b leg of the bearish cypher pattern around 409.36... A massive short squeeze will occur...
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 04/21Markets Struggling to Gain Some Traction - Day 2
Despite the initial downward momentum post-PMI release this morning, markets still seem stuck in the tug-of-war between the "Inflation peaked" optimism and the "recession onset" concerns, and the earnings season so far has failed to give either the bulls or the bears any real traction. Whether the earnings next week will help the markets gain momentum in either direction remains to be seen. Our positional models continue to be in an indeterminate state until further notice.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans until otherwise published.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for FRI. 04/21:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4150, 4134, or 4123 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4146, 4129, or 4120 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession
SPY | Informative | Day Trade plan for 04-21-2023AMEX:SPY
Bearish and bullish scenario possibilities based on price action.
*it should close above the Bullish and bearish line to be a valid trade.
Increasing Confusion.Hi.
I want to show you two SPX charts, one for 4H and other for 2W.
And tell you why I chose them, as well as how uncertainty can affect the price.
Left screen.
Enough signs for a decrease.
1. Spin top.
2. Gap down.
3. Tenkan-Sen break.
4. Bearish divergence.
We can say that the next month will develop a downward movement.
But in what larger situation is this movement embedded?
Right screen:
In lifetime of most of us, SP500 did not make such long swings in the cloud such size.
There are subtleties here.
1. Kijun-Sen has crossed Tenkan-Sen again.
Candles over of lines. Kind of a bullish picture...
But this crossing is inside the cloud.
2. Tenkan-sen is dangerously looking down and may well cross Senkou-Span B.
3. Senkou-Span A is looking downward, hinting at a possible downward expansion of the cloud...
The thinking is simple.
If 4H chart has started a down movement, it is enough for a month or even 5 weeks.
During this month, two candles down on 2W chart will cause the indicator lines
form a cross with bottom edge of the cloud, and given timeframe it will be an ultra-bearish signal.
This is what I wanted to show.
One timeframe can start a process on another timeframe.
Given DXY strengthening, none of this looks rosy.
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 04/20Markets Struggling to Gain Some Traction
Markets seem stuck in the tug-of-war between the "Inflation peaked" optimism and the "recession onset" concerns, and the earnings season so far has failed to give either the bulls or the bears any real traction. Whether the earnings ahead will help the markets gain momentum in either direction remains to be seen. Our positional models continue to be in an indeterminate state until further notice.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans until otherwise published.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for THU. 04/20:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4134 with a 12-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4128 or 4120 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exit on a break below 4143. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:45am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession
SP500 Gann Square AnalysisThe SP500 index, which is in a downtrend in the long term, tries the trend many times. If the trend is broken, it will target the next trend follower level of $4400. If it is rejected from the trend, it must hold on to the arc.
Hit the target top, now for the bottomIf Intermediate wave 1 is finally done, it was a few days late, but on target. Next forecast is for Intermediate wave 2 which should see the anticipated market decline over the next 5-12 days. This means the bottom should occur prior to May 2. As of now, Intermediate wave 1 was 23 days long. Waves ending in 2BC2 have been 20-50% the length of their first wave’s length. The projected retracement percentages have not change, but the values have slightly as the initial estimates were based on Intermediate wave 1 topping at 4160. The most specific datasets correlate to the retracement levels in light blue. The 33.44% value represents the first quartile of historical movement for waves ending in 2BC2. The median is 60.60% and the third quartile is 77.87%.
The next specific values are in yellow and the are tied to historical waves ending in BC2. The third quartile is not displayed in yellow because it is also the 77.87% from the first dataset. The length of wave 2 based on this slightly larger dataset has it lasting 5-12 days again, with the strongest model agreement on 7 days. This could put the bottom around April 25.
The final set of values are based on a larger and broader dataset based on the behavior of waves ending in C2. These values are in white and the median value is omitted because it is close to the yellow value of 67.86%. The strongest model agreement suggests wave 2 could last 23 days (18 models) followed by 8 days (14 models), 12 days (12 models), and 7 days (6 models).
Declines could be related to earnings and speculation on the Fed which will provide the next rate hike determination and hint toward the future during the first week in May. Based on all the data, I am placing the bottom around 3922-3950. This will depend if the index starts moving down tomorrow or if another new high is reached. After this next bottom we should jump into the final strong rally of this uptrend possibly gaining 350-450 points over the course of 4 weeks. A perfect catalyst for this would be the Fed doing what is expected and hinting at a pause on rate hikes. While I do not agree it is a smart thing to do, it will be one of the many catalysts for the massive declines set to begin around mid-late June. Let’s play the drop, the big gain, and then its prevent defense time (after wave 4 down and wave 5 up).
SPX clearly forming a Bear Pennant flagS&P500 AMEX:SPY is clearly forming a Bear Pennant flag in the monthly TF
breakout below the bottom trendline will confirm that pattern 📉
Long term target in chart (in case of breakout)
CBOE:SPX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY MIL:BTC
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 04/18"Inflation Peaked" Relief v/s "Recession Onset" Concern
With the CPI and FOMC minutes almost confirming the cooling off of the inflation and potential "mild" recession, markets are on-and-off with the sense of relief for a day and with the sense of concern another day. The imminent earnings season should help decide which way the sentiment would settle towards. Early earnings releases so far seem to lead to no clear directional bias, yet.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans until otherwise published.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for TUE. 04/18:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4168, 4152, 4134, 4124, or 4107 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4143, 4130, 4119, or 4103 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4164. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Bitcoin - Resistance Before EarningsThe S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Indexes, and Bitcoin cryptocurrency have all reached a Resistance Price Level Zone in April 2023.
USA Stock Market Season for Q1 2023 officially began on 04/14/2023.
If the majority of Stock Earnings are good, the price of all 4 assets could breakout above to test previous 2022 high prices (August & April 2022).
However, if the majority of Stock Earnings are bad, the price of all 4 assets could breakdown and fall back to July & October 2022 low prices.
Finally, on a positive note for perspective: the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Indexes and Bitcoin are all well above their pre-pandemic prices (January 2020, which was the previous all-time high for the stock market).
SPx 4h (it looks bearish)SPx
stabilizing above 4142 will be bullish to get 4155 and above it 4166
but stabilizing under 4090 will be bearish to get 4073 and 4060
The movement range will be between 4102 and 4122
Pivot Price: 4101
Support prices: 4090 & 4073 & 4060
Resistance prices: 4122 & 4142 & 4155
5 Things to Watch in the Next 2 WeeksCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Put Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! )
Important data releases in the coming weeks would shed light on the health of the US economy and could have significant impacts on global financial markets. We will focus on a number of critical datasets, mainly the following, in the upcoming weeks:
• Federal tax revenue (Tax filing deadline: April 18)
• Existing home sales (April 20)
• Personal income and outlay (April 28)
• Fed rate hike, or the lack of it (May 3)
• Gasoline price trend (before peak summer driving season)
Federal Tax Revenue
According to the US Treasury Department, the sources of tax revenue for US federal government in 2021 were:
• Individual taxes: 42.1%
• Social insurance taxes: 23.8%
• Consumption taxes: 16.6%
• Property taxes: 11.4%
• Corporate taxes: 6.0%
The annual tax filing deadline for individual and corporation is April 18th. In practice, income tax, social security and Medicare are withheld from each paycheck for employees. Corporations pay estimated tax on a monthly basis. Property taxes are assessed annually. Sales tax is paid whenever you buy products or services.
Tax filing is a process where taxpayers calculate tax liability and claim tax credit. If you’ve paid too much, ask for a refund. If you didn’t pay enough, send Uncle Sam a check.
We could track government tax revenue and expenditure using the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) data published by the Treasury Department. Here are what I found:
• In the first three months of 2023, gross tax revenue is $2.268 trillion, while tax refund amounts to $219.8 billion; The resulting net tax receipts are $2.048 trillion;
• Comparing to Q1 2022, gross tax revenue is down 0.2%, but tax refunds are up big time by 45.8%. Net tax receipts are down 3.5% year-over-year;
• Q1 individual income taxes $1.22 trillion, tax refunds $192.4 billion and net tax receipts $1.03 trillion; Y/Y changes are -1.9%, +59% and -8.5%, respectively;
• Q1 corporate income taxes (in billions) $159.0, refunds $19.0, and net tax receipts $140.0; Y/Y changes are +5.1%, -20.7% and +10.0%, respectively;
Individual taxes are the most important revenue source for the United States. A declining tax receipt would push the federal budget deeper in the red. But with unemployment at record low and wages on the rise, why is income tax revenue going down?
In 2020, the top 1% of income earners earned 22% of all income and paid 42% of all federal income taxes – more than the bottom 90% combined (37%). For the top earners, most of their income taxes come from capital gain, not from wages.
In 2021, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 18.7% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 had annual returns of approximately 27%. I examine the MTS data for April 2022, which covered the tax filing period for year 2021. Net income tax receipt was $1.72 trillion, up 68.5% y/y. This shows positive correlation between stock market gains and growth in individual income tax revenue.
In 2022, the Dow declined 8.8%, while S&P and Nasdaq were down 19.4% and 33.0%, respectively. The individual income tax in Q1 2023 was down 1.9%, but tax refund was up 59%. This again shows positive correlation – stock market losses and decline in income tax revenue.
March MTS data strongly indicates that investors are writing off big capital losses from last year. When the tax season is over, I expect to see bigger tax refund and widening net receipt shortfall in the April MTS data vs same period in 2022.
Implications: Urgency for Debt Ceiling Negotiation
In January, in a letter addressed to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned the US has once again reached its debt limit.
The Treasury Department started taking extraordinary measures to keep paying the federal government’s bills, but it would suspend new investments until June 5, 2023. Yellen warned both moves are subject to “considerable uncertainty” if Congress does not pass the bill to increase the debt ceiling.
US financials have deteriorated since. According to USDebtClock.org:
• US National Debt: $31.69 trillion
• US Federal Spending: $6.03 trillion
• US Federal Tax Revenue: $4.61 trillion
• US Federal Budget Deficit: $1.42 trillion
We now expect tax revenue to decline by at least tens of billions of dollars, while spendings on Defense, Medicare, Social Security, and Debt Interest are all going up. As a result, federal budget deficit could be underestimated by well over one hundred billion dollars.
Would the federal government have enough money to keep the light on until early June? I suspect the insolvency time bomb is ticking closer and closer.
Short-term Trading Strategies
Although we had two rate hikes and a banking crisis in the first 100 days of 2023, major stock market indexes are all in the positive territory. The Dow gained 2.2%, S&P 500 rebounded 7.8%, and the Nasdaq pushed up 19.6% YTD.
While investors managed to brush off bad news so far, balance sheet deterioration in government, corporation and household would eventually catch up. I am seeing a 5-10% correction in the S&P 500, if some of the following conditions materialize:
• Federal tax revenue comes in significantly lower than expected. April MTS report would be released around May 12th;
• May 3rd FOMC: If the Fed raises rates and does not signal an end of the tightening cycle, both corporate earnings and household spending would suffer;
• US banks could tighten lending standards in the wake of banking crisis. This would add to higher borrowing cost on top of the rising interest rates;
• Debt ceiling negotiation: if the White House and the Congress could not reach a deal quickly, we may be heading for the technical default of US government debt. Right now, they are not even sitting at the negotiating table.
Options on CME E-Mini S&P 500 may be a way to express a bearish view. The E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures June contract (ESM3) is quoted 4171.75 last Friday. With a notional value of HKEX:50 x S&P 500 Index point, each contract is worth $208,587.5. Put option with a 4070 strike, which is about 100 points below market value, is quoted 76.25. To acquire one option requires an upfront premium of HKEX:3 ,812.50 (=76.25 X HKEX:50 ).
Put option carries a nonlinear payoff diagram. Your loss is limited to the premium you paid, but potential gain is unlimited.
Hypothetically, if the S&P futures price falls to 3900, put option will be 170 points in the money (=4070-3900). The gain on the account would be HKEX:8 ,500 for each contract.
If our view proves to be incorrect and the S&P goes up instead, put premium could decline in value, resulting in a loss. The worst-case scenario is that options would expire worthless.
Happy Trading.
(To be continued)
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Cracking the Code: Analyzing SPY Trends Across Multiple TFLets take a deep dive into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and examine its trends across weekly, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts. Using technical analysis tools and strategies, we uncover insights into how SPY is behaving on different time scales and what that might mean for traders. Whether you're new to trading or a seasoned pro, you'll find valuable insights and actionable tips in this comprehensive analysis of SPY price action.
Relationship of the Fed interest rate + SP 500 index Logarithm. The time frame on both charts is 1 month. It is worth considering as an indicator of large market cycles in general.
I will not describe it, because I have already said a lot about it before. There is a correlation, which is logical, but not always. There are also reasons for this, which I have voiced before.
Expensive and cheap money - the regulation of the growth and decline of the U.S. economy (the whole world).
The Fed Funds rate , is the target interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the basis of which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other for short periods (usually overnight).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy setting body of the Federal Reserve, meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds rate.
The federal funds rate can affect short-term rates on consumer loans and credit cards, as well as the stock market.
By law, banks must maintain a reserve equal to a certain percentage of their deposits in a Federal Reserve Bank account. The amount of money a bank must keep in its account at the Fed is known as the reserve requirement and is based on a percentage of the bank's total deposits.
The rate target set by the Federal Reserve is achieved through open market operations. Since the Fed cannot set the rate's exact value through such operations, the actual value may fluctuate near the target rate.
The Fed Funds rate is one of the most important interest rates in the U.S. economy because it affects monetary and financial conditions, which in turn affect critical aspects of the overall economy, including employment, economic growth and inflation.
SP 500 Index .
S&P 500 (SPX) is a stock index whose basket includes 503 stocks of the 500 selected publicly traded companies with the largest capitalization on U.S. stock exchanges. The list belongs to and is compiled by Standard & Poor's. The index is published since March 4, 1957.
Major trend (long term)
SP500 index. The entire trend. 100th Anniversary
Plot of the index during the "Great Depression."
SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69
