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Stock HeatmapHave you ever heard of a stock heatmap? 📈 It's an innovative and visually appealing tool used in the world of finance to analyze and interpret market data. Let's explore what it is and how it can be useful in your trading journey. 🌡️ What is a Stock Heatmap? A stock heatmap is a graphical representation of a large set of stocks or securities, where each individual stock is color-coded based on its performance or specific metrics. It provides a visual snapshot of the entire market or a specific sector, helping traders quickly identify trends, strengths, and weaknesses. 🔍 Utilizing Heatmaps 1️⃣ Market Analysis: Heatmaps allow you to assess the overall market sentiment and identify which stocks are performing well and which ones are underperforming. 2️⃣ Sector Analysis: By using sector-specific heatmaps, you can easily spot strong sectors and weak sectors, helping you make informed decisions about sector rotation strategies. 3️⃣ Stock Selection: Heatmaps can assist in narrowing down potential trading opportunities by highlighting stocks with significant price movements, volume surges, or specific technical indicators. 4️⃣ Risk Management: Heatmaps help you assess the risk-reward profile of different stocks, enabling you to prioritize stocks that align with your risk tolerance and investment goals. Remember, a stock heatmap should be used as a complementary tool alongside other fundamental and technical analysis techniques. It provides a dynamic and intuitive way to visualize market data, aiding in decision-making and identifying potential trading opportunities.
SP:SPXEducation
by JRiquelmeTrading
1
VIX vs S&P500The VIX index (officially known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index), developed by CBOE in 1993, is calculated based on the implied volatility of call and put options on the S&P500; index (SPX) over a 30-day period. The theory behind the volatility index is that if investors believe the market is going to decline, they will hedge their portfolios by buying puts (the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date). Conversely, if traders are bullish, they may not want to hedge against potential downturns. This index shows a negative correlation with the S&P500.; When there is high volatility, the VIX reaches high values and is often accompanied by declines in the S&P500;, indicating fear and pessimism in the market. These events often lead to significant movements in the stock markets. Conversely, when the VIX is at lows, there is confidence in the market and movements are smoother. Relevant VIX levels: VIX<20: Investor confidence. Often coincides with bullish periods for the S&P500.; 2030: Increased investor pessimism or fear. High volatility and the potential for significant downward corrections in the prices of the S&P500; and major stock indices.
TVC:VIX
by JRiquelmeTrading
1
PPI Good News on Inflation Bad News on Recession?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 07/13 The softer than expected PPI on the top of yesterday's softer inflation numbers are likely going to stoke the "Half Full, Half Empty" debate to a higher pitch. The die-hard bulls would like to see it as an indication of the coveted "soft landing", while the die-hard bears would like to cast this as an indication of potential recession ahead. The next question that needs to be answered to resolve this debate in one way or another: is the softening inflation going to impact earnings numbers? We will start getting a glimpse into this starting from tomorrow. If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. The previously stated level of 4500-4505 is the next area of resistance. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4507, 4491, 4467, or 4454 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4497, 4486, 4478, or 4448 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4463, 4483, or 4504, and short exits on a break above 4483 or 4500. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:41am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 13, 2023Key News: UK - GDP (MoM) (May) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - PPI (MoM) (Jun) Despite relinquishing some of its gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded Wednesday's trading session on a higher note. This positive finish was primarily attributed to a decline in Treasury yields and a surge in the tech sector, fueled by data indicating the slowest inflation increase in more than two years. The market sentiment has been uplifted by optimism that the forthcoming rate hike, scheduled for later this month, could potentially mark the conclusion of the tightening cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 0.25% climb, translating to a gain of 86 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq witnessed a robust increase of 1.2%, and the S&P 500 displayed a notable rise of 0.74%. DJI indices daily chart Nasdaq indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart In June, the consumer price index (CPI) registered a modest uptick, rising by 0.2% following a 0.1% increase in May. Additionally, the annual inflation rate eased from 4% to 3%, reaching its lowest point since March 2021. These figures suggest a reduced level of price pressures in the economy. While there remains an expectation that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate hike later this month, the outlook for additional rate increases beyond July becomes less certain. The uncertainty stems from the possibility of upcoming economic data revealing a continued deceleration in inflation. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jefferies, in a recent note, highlighted the importance of upcoming economic indicators in determining the trajectory of rate hikes. If indicators such as the Employment Cost Index on July 28, along with employment and inflation data released in August, continue to exhibit a slowdown similar to the recent Consumer Price Index data, it suggests that the rate hike scheduled for July could potentially mark the conclusion of the current cycle. In line with this sentiment, major technology companies, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META), experienced a rebound following a recent downturn. This recovery was fueled by a significant decline in Treasury yields, driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are nearing their conclusion. GOOGL stocks daily chart MSFT stocks daily chart META stocks daily chart Microsoft's shares surged by over 1% as the tech behemoth made significant strides in the completion of its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ: ATVI), the renowned game developer responsible for the popular Call of Duty franchise. The acquisition received a boost as a Federal judge dismissed the Federal Trade Commission's request to delay the deal, citing insufficient evidence to support claims of potential competition harm. This favorable development played a crucial role in driving Microsoft's strong performance in the market. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The sell-off of the US dollar gained momentum after the release of the CPI data, leading to a rapid approach towards the 100 level on the dollar index. This consistent and significant movement has positive implications for global inflation dynamics. A weaker US dollar tends to drive down energy and raw material prices, which are often denominated in US dollars. Consequently, lower prices for these commodities can help alleviate inflationary pressures on a global scale. In contrast, a strengthening US dollar contributes to inflationary pressures worldwide. Therefore, the depreciation of the US dollar can provide relief in the face of such pressures. EUR/USD daily chart In the currency markets, notable movements were observed. The EUR/USD pair experienced a surge, reaching the 1.1150 level, indicating a strengthening of the Euro against the US dollar. Similarly, the GBP/USD pair surpassed the significant 1.30 level, signaling a rise in the British pound against the US dollar. Conversely, the USD/JPY pair extended its decline, falling below the psychological level of 140, implying a weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. These fluctuations highlight the dynamic nature of the currency markets and the interplay between different currency pairs. USD/JPY daily chart The anticipated release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for June today is expected to provide further insight into the global economy's disinflationary trend. Forecasts suggest a significant deceleration in the headline PPI, dropping from 1.1% in May to 0.4% in June. The core PPI is also projected to experience a more modest slowdown, declining from 2.8% to 2.6%. The weakening figures from the PPI may have implications for future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, indicating a continued disinflationary environment. This reinforces the notion that the forthcoming rate hike in the United States will likely be the final one in the current cycle. In summary, the June PPI numbers are expected to confirm the prevailing disinflationary trend in the global economy. The projected slowdown in PPI figures suggests potential effects on future CPI data and supports the belief that the upcoming rate hike will be the last one.
by FOREXN1
11
Inflation Tame. Next Question - Earnings Soft?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 07/12 Markets are happy with the soft inflation numbers. The next question on the minds of investors - is it going to impact earnings numbers? If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. We will begin to get a sense of it starting Friday and then into early next week. The previously stated level of 4400-4410 continues to be in play as critical support. 4500-4505 is the next area of resistance. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4502, 4473, 4460, or 4431 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4498, 4487, 4469, 4457, or 4427 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits, and short exits on a break above 4491. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Fasten your seat belt, please.Hello investors. I repost and re-edit my chart multiple times to be updated. Take this one as long-term based on daily time frame. I think, crisis ain't done and the worst will come yet. We can spot a lot of similarities with 2008, when Bitcoin does not exist. It is on SP500 chart. To make is simple I let bars pattern in chart as an example: It would happen very soon, probably with start in this May ( traditional "Sell in May and go away" ). Don't read news if wave is done. This rally was suspicious from its beginning and only made Lehman formation. I don't expect much upsides - to be clear. I am just a passenger as you. So let's wait and see. My belt is fasten already ;-) With care always, Emvo.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Emvo10
15
Double-top on SPX?The previous week was filled with numerous data disclosures that provided deeper insights into the U.S. economy. Most notably, we saw the first month-over-month decline of the S&P Global Services PMI in 2023 (negatively affecting the S&P Global Composite PMI), a continuation of contraction in the manufacturing sector, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate (from 3.7% in May 2023 to 3.6% in June 2023). Overall, the data has not proved recessionary yet. But with services slowing down, it would be appropriate to stay cautious and wait for more data to reveal underlying trends in the economy. In our opinion, the current valuations for stocks seem overstretched (especially in the tech sector), and the replacement of fear and calls for a recession by the narrative dismissive of any danger to the U.S. economy could lead to a volatile concoction in the stock market. As a result, we are monitoring multiple technical indicators on a daily time frame, including RSI, MACD, and Stochastic. All three of these indicators show divergence with the price and point to the downside, which is not particularly bullish. In addition to that, SPX appears to be forming a double top, giving rise to an interesting setup if the pattern becomes valid. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the mentioned setup. The bearish trigger becomes activated once the price breaks below Support 1. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows nearly the perfect harmony between the decline from January 2022 until October 2022 and the rise from October 2022 until July 2022. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (with signs of weakness) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
27
SP500 Is Looking Higher By Elliott Wave TheorySP500 is looking higher for wave 5 of (5) of a five-wave bullish impulse by Elliott wave theory. SP500 is bullish from 4100 area, an impulse that can resume even higher as the current sideways price action at 4360-4500 area appears like a corrective fourth wave, possibly a triangle or flat, but in either case more gains can be seen this month. Hidden divergence also suggests that price can be looking for a support soon. Support is at 4368, for a more complex and deeper w. 4.
CME_MINI:ESU2023
by ew-forecast
Waiting on Inflation and Earnings Numbers - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 07/11 Markets are waiting to see and digest the inflation numbers and then the kick-off of earnings season. If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. Until this clarity emerges, expect volatility and choppy markets ahead. The previously stated level of 4400-4410 continues to be in play as critical support. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4441, 4423, 4417, 4400, or 4375 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4438, 4415, 4390, or 4372 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4420 or 4397, and short exits on a break above 4392. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am EST or later.
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Preparing for the Earnings Season Kick Off Later this WeekS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 07/10 Markets seem to be searching for a direction, getting ready for the earnings season to kick off later this week. If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. Until this clarity emerges, expect volatility and choppy markets ahead. The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 continues to be in play as critical for the next directional leg. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4432, 4417, or 4402 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4409, 4397, or 4385 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4428 or 4414, and short exits on a break above 4388 or 4411. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 02:01pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Homing in on market topIf we are in the final Intermediate wave 5 up in Cycle wave B, it is possible we are in the final Minor wave up (wave 5) as well. This would mean Minor waves 1 and 2 lasted a single day, wave 3 was 2 days and wave 4 was 3 days. The original projections for Intermediate wave 5 are the vertical white lines marking the end of day 10 and day 12 as well as the movement extension levels to the outside right side of the chart above. The inner extension levels relate to Minor wave 5’s movement in relation to Minor wave 3 as described below. Based on waves ending in BC55, the length of Minor wave 5 has strongest model agreement at 1 trading day long, with secondary at 6 days long. All models point to a possible extension of Minor wave 1’s movement to place the top around 4519. Based on models ending in C55, strongest model agreement remains at 1 day long, secondary is 2 days, third is 3 days, fourth is 5 or 6 days. The quartile extension levels are 114.82%, 139.60%, and 148.58% which are represented by the yellow lines. Finally is the data for waves ending in 55, wherein the models strongly point to 1 day, then 2 days with third agreement at 3 days. The remaining models are not close and pick up at 5 days. These leads me to believe that Minor wave 5 will likely not surpass 3 trading days in length which places the top on or before the close on Tuesday July 11. Comparing the levels for Minor 5 and matching the levels from Intermediate 5, the top will not likely occur above 4520. Best guess is the market closes the final gap created yesterday and likely tops out around 4484 and possibly no higher than 4500. CPI number comes out Wednesday before the open. There is strong belief the Fed raises rates again soon based on the jobs report from yesterday. A CPI reading with an equal or higher number would all but cement this fact meaning a new top would not occur on Wednesday and would occur Tuesday at the latest. The market will likely close the gap today or it already has which could make this Minute wave 3 up. The day could close stronger, a slight pullback could occur Monday and the final top would be Tuesday. The Fed does not meet until later this month which would mean CPI would likely need to increase in order to spook the markets enough to cause the top now. Many companies have loads of debt that can no longer be refinanced at next to 0% interest levels which will further cause a sell-off and degrade their already inflated evaluations.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
ADP and NFP Divergence S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 07/07 The divergence between yesterday's ADP payrolls numbers and this morning's Non-Farm Payrolls numbers is giving the optimists on the markets dreams of the Goldilocks scenario (aka "soft landing" or "softish landing") to unfold, while the pessimists on the markets are fretting over potential slowdown and the 'R' word. Overall, the twin numbers serve to leave the markets wanting for more clarity than not, and that could help continue the recent spike to consolidate for some time. The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 continues to be in play as critical for the next directional leg. With a quarter-point rate hike later this month a given, the FOMC meetings might be becoming non-events unless there are any negative surprises in any upcoming data. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4432, 4417, or 4401 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4409, 4397, or 4385 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4428 or 4414, and short exits on a break above 4388 or 4411. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #pce, #softpce, #jobs, #adp, #adpjobs, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #nonfarm
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Tight Job Market, Rising Yields...S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 07/06 The FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday, and the ADP jobs numbers this morning, and the consistent Fed speak...all point to more interest rate hikes (albeit at a slower pace) ahead and the rising yields are showing that the bond markets are bracing for that scenario. While the equity markets seem oblivious to the rising yields for now, it remains to be seen how long the equity markets can believe in the Goldilocks scenario to continue. The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 is critical for today's market action. With a quarter-point rate hike later this month a given, the FOMC meetings might be becoming non-events unless the jobs and inflation numbers continue at concerning levels. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4420 or 4410, with a hard stop at 4456, and a floating 45-point trailing stop. If a short is opened and stopped out, then the models will invalidate these levels and stay flat for the rest of the session. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4450, 4432, 4413, 4401, or 4391 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4446, 4428, 4396, or 4387 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4409, and short exits on a break above 4391. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #pce, #softpce, #jobs, #adpjobs
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Updated Market Top Based On Upward MovementNow that we have returned to Primary wave C in Cycle wave B up, the new forecasted top is contained herein. This will likely extend the final drop into later 2024 than initially proposed in the last analysis since Cycle wave B will likely last an additional month and go higher. We are most likely in the final Intermediate wave 5 up, while it is slightly possible we are in the corrective Intermediate wave 4 down. Confirmation of wave 4 would be a low beneath 4360 before a high above 4480. If in Intermediate wave 5, Intermediate wave 3 was 30 trading days long, gaining 400.19 points and extending 177.36% of Intermediate wave 1’s movement. If Intermediate wave 4 completed, it was 5 trading days long and a loss of 120.39 points for a retracement of 30.08% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement. July 5 would be considered day 6 of Intermediate wave 5 however, the most recent market top was 2 trading days prior at 4458.48. For the market top forecast, Intermediate wave 5 could have the following statistics based on waves ending in 2BC5. Quartile extensions of Intermediate wave 3’s movement (light blue lines) are 121.05%, 153.2%, 186.17%. The models do not point to a specific length however there are windows of potential lengths. Windows are 6-8 days, 12-15 days, and 24-26 trading days long. Based on waves ending in BC5, quartile movements (yellow lines) are 122.06%, 137.71%, and 153.2%. This is interesting as the original median level is now the 3rd quartile movement level which indicates 153.2% may not be achieved. This would indicate the market top remains below 4660.26. The strongest model agreement for length of Intermediate wave 5 is at 8 and 10 days. Second most model agreement is at 4 or 25 trading days, while third agreement is 4, 12, 14, 18, and 20 trading days long. The broadest data set is for waves ending in C5. The quartile levels are (white line) 109.46%, 122.9%, and 151.06%. The models agree the most at a length of 5 or 12 days. Second most agreement at 6 or 10 days long, third at 20 days long, fourth at 9 days, fifth at 7 or 30 days, sixth at 14 days. I have also drawn a new trendline from the beginning of Primary wave C (the low on March 13, 2023) to the end of Intermediate wave 3 (the high on June 16) to act as the prior support line becoming the new resistance. I may use the intersection of this line with the levels mentioned above and the trading day lengths to identify potential reversal points. Additional considerations should be made in determining how far into Intermediate wave 5 are we if that is the correct wave structure. Intermediate wave 5 is composed of 5 Minor waves and each minor wave is composed of Minute waves. A 30 minute chart indicates my wave 3 indicator was signaled around the highs from June 30. This indicates that Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 1 was completed or Minor wave 3 was completed. Intermediate wave 5 is nearing completion if Minor wave 3 was already accomplished and the total top could be as soon as July 7th. If the market is still early in Minor wave 1 then the market top could be more than 10 trading days away. Potential intersection points for 8 days long (July 7th) are at a top of 4485.21 or 4531.60. Intersections for 10 days long (July 11) are the same levels as 8 days with a top falling just shy of 4600 (the original forecasted top from July 2022). 12 days would extend the top just above 4600, and 14 days places the top around the 4630 range. 20 days is the max on the model agreement and tops out around 4685-4690. Based on the levels, lines, days and consideration of intersections I don’t think the market top occurs after mid-week next week. Economic reports are this Thursday and Friday with the CPI reading next Wednesday. Although month over month inflation continues to increase in the U.S. the number has declined each month. A rise in this report and lower job losses this week could support a new Fed hike as early as then end of July. I would place the market top around July 11-12 around 4530. This would further support the theory Minor wave 3 has indeed completed and Minor wave 5 could have a drawn out 5 wave structure upward. Once again, we shall see if this is the top. I will provide updated downward targets next weekend once this forecasted movement completes. Feel free to follow for updates and future forecasts.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
This is actually getting insane.The chart above shows the 20-month EMA of the spread between the contract in front and the second contract in front for S&P 500 futures CME_MINI:ES1! It continues to explode, and this is a bad sign. Since S&P 500 futures pricing includes the risk-free interest rate, the spread between the two contracts gives insight into the market's expectations about future interest rates. To understand why the interest rate is used in the pricing of futures contracts, one has to understand futures contracts. Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a future date. The price of a futures contract is determined by a number of factors, including the current spot price of the underlying asset and the cost of carrying the asset to maturity. The interest rate is used in the pricing of futures contracts because it represents the cost of carrying the asset to maturity for the contract seller. Since the contract seller could otherwise hold their money in a risk-free Treasury bond rather than in the S&P 500, the risk-free rate is therefore the opportunity cost to the seller, for which they must be compensated. The risk-free rate is therefore used because it represents the minimum return that must be earned in order for a rational market participant to sell an S&P 500 futures contract. Since each S&P 500 futures contract must price in the interest rate, the spread between contracts that expire sequentially indicates the market's expectation of the future direction of the interest rate. In this regard, the difference between sequential futures contracts guides the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, specifically the Fed Funds Rate, as shown in the chart below. On the flip side, the yield curve inversion is steepening by the most in over 40 years. Shown below is the difference between the 10-year U.S. Treasury and the 2-year U.S. Treasury. The ratio of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill is even worse, as shown in the chart below. I adjusted the values by taking the square to account for periods when the 3-month Treasury bill yield went into the negative numbers What does all of this mean? It means that a U.S. recession is for sure coming, and it's likely to be stagflationary in nature. If you'd like to listen to my full thoughts, you can watch my video below. When will the recession begin? The below infographic, created by Fredric Parker, uses a probability distribution to infer that a U.S. recession is extremely likely to begin before the end of 2024. The New York Federal Reserve places the chance of a U.S. recession beginning by May 2024 at nearly 71%. This is their highest predicted chance of a recession in over 40 years -- even higher than the Dotcom Bust and the Great Recession. The amount of SP:SPX volatility that's going to occur when the yield curve attempts normalization is probably going to be off-the-charts . This is evidenced by the fact that S&P 500 volatility is sinking to cycle lows as bond volatility explodes at the highest rate of change on record. To read more about this, you can view the post below that I co-authored with @SquishTrade With that said, July tends to be bullish and markets tend to be irrational. So perhaps the bull run will continue... for now. Historically, the S&P 500 often rallies at the end of the tightening cycle, right as the market believes the rate hikes will come to an end, but before the market fully realizes the damage they've done. Meanwhile, this is all occurring while the yearly Stochastic RSI for the SP:SPX shows very strong downward momentum -- to a degree only seen during significant economic downturns. Once the recession begins, it may last a long time or it may come in the form of multiple recessions. Central banks will fight the fires with more money, worsening inflation and causing whipsaws in monetary policy. Worst of all... During periods of severe economic downturn, major political instability and geopolitical conflicts often occur. Central banks need scapegoats for their monetary policy failures. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
CME_MINI:ES2!
by SpyMasterTrades
61
FOMC Meeting MinutesS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 07/05 Our trading plans published on Friday, 06/30 stated: "Cover any open shorts and avoid going short - next week's holiday-shortened week could add more spikes to the upside to hit any stops on the shorts". Unless something significantly changes in the FOMC meeting minutes due for release this afternoon, markets appear poised to consolidate and continue the gains to the upside. The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 is now the support level. Be very nimble if going short while above these levels. With a quarter-point rate hike later this month a given, the FOMC meetings might be becoming non-events unless today's FOMC minutes deliver a big surprise (which is very unlikely). Hence, last weeks' spike up has a potential to turn into the next leg of the bull. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans for today. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4440, 4429, 4400, or 4391 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4424, 4397, or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4437, and short exits on a break above 4391. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #pce, #softpce, #fomcminutes
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SP500 is it not yet “bottomed”?! I don’t have answer! 23/Dec/22.SP500. is it bottomed or not yet bottomed? I don’t know. I only know where is my stop lost level..Asked And find answer from Mr. Market. They said treat trading like doing business = maybe in Money management might be correct but not all. E.g ..Don’t never ever try “ not compromised/manipulating” with your client / supplier as you did with Mr. Market. You always got to “succumb “cut Lost” /compromised” to Mr. Market as he is always “right”..So don’t think “ you are the boss” when you are dealing with Mr. Market...AND be honest with ourselves. no shortcut/ no hanky panky trying outsmart with your client/suppliers/ which is Mr. Market..
FX:SPX500
by SteveTan
S&P 500 Pushing to 6,000 after Wedge BreakFalling Wedge has formed with the S&P 500 since 1 July 2021. We then recently had a breakout above 3,991 which confirmed upside to come. With the strong Engulfing up candles, we can expect the price to soar in the next few weeks. That is if the trend does hold and doesn't cause a fakeout. Price>200 RSI>50 My first target is at 6,000. SMC Below the Falling Wedge, there is a clear sign of Sell Side Liquidity. This is where Smart Money buys into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter into their trades. This causes the price to rocket up each time it touches this Order Block. Now we'll need a strong catalyst for upside to continue. I am rooting for this one...
SP:SPXLong
by Timonrosso