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SP500 terminal pattern and what I'm looking at.Here's what I'm looking at. We're currently finding support around the 4440 area along with the 50 day EMA. This recent pull back (last week) was on lower than average volume with the price closing off lows. The recent green day's we've seen i.e. Friday, Monday and Today were on higher volume than the days we pulled back. This shows that there's buying demand around this area. Now, 4490 along with the upper white trend line will act as a confluence of resistance. Bullish Scenario We break above the 4490 area this week and hold above it on a daily closing basis. This will show buyers conviction and willing to push the market higher. If that happens, the 4540 area would be the next major resistance; and a break above that would be really bullish. Bearish Scenario We move higher towards the 4490 area only to find selling pressure and head lower. If that's the case I doubt 4440 would be able to hold as support and we may end up moving lower to the 4360 area as that would be the confluence of support by the lower trend line and that horizontal level. Tomorrows PPI numbers and Unemployment numbers will set the expectation and tone for the FED meeting in the following week. The pattern in the chart attached is a terminal pattern so we have until October 13th, 2023 to break out of it to either side. As always DYDD and be sure to manage your risk. Losing a small amount of your allocated capital is better than having that capital stuck in an under performing asset.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by HaseebKhan_90
CPI – Inflation, Disinflation, but No RecessionS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/13 Our trading plans published yesterday stated: "Our current bearish bias for positional trading continues, with the bear case appearing a little more plausible in the coming days. It is hard to find what unexpected bullish scenarios could evolve in the near future, so bulls need to be a bit cautious with their current gains. Taking some money off the table could be prudent". This morning's CPI numbers have something for everyone, leaving room for both bulls and bears to adapt them to their case. Immediately after the release, yields spiked up, but then fell back down...essentially leaving everything open to one's own interpretation. It remains to be seen if tomorrow's PPI numbers will be any more clarifying than that. Our models indicate bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470 on a daily close basis. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4487, 4480, 4465, or 4450 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4485, 4475, 4456, or 4448 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4463, and short exits on a break above 4459. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #cpi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trading Plans for TUE. 09/12 - Spikey Consolidation, ContinuedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 09/12 Our current bearish bias for positional trading continues, with the bear case appearing a little more plausible in the coming days. It is hard to find what unexpected bullish scenarios could evolve in the near future, so bulls need to be a bit cautious with their current gains. Taking some money off the table could be prudent. Our models indicate bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470 on a daily close basis. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4490, 4473, or 4450 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4487, 4478, 4463, or 4448 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4470, and short exits on a break above 4481 or 4466. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:36am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
The Cash BubbleHistory repeats itself, and we should learn from it, however sometimes history is so far away that it spans generations before we're able to grasp the experience first hand. We hear about 1929, but we can't imagine what it was to survive the struggle, we hear about the pandemics during the 20's, same deal, we have heard about recessions, and those who went through the big recession of 2008 triggered by the immobiliary crisis know better, some veterans from the dot com bubble, others from the Black monday in 87, and probably very few from earlier crisis. But I don't think anybody has gone through a halt in the economy due to a pandemic at the level we witnessed in 2020. Let's put it in context, 2020 was an election year, the incumbent government was losing the battle against the pandemic and the halt in the economy. He had the support of the congress and the wallet at his will, the former President Trump flooded the market with freshly printed dollars in an attempt to reignite the economy as soon as possible, and let's say, it worked for the purpose of reactivating the economy and not having to wait for a painful period of a lengthy recovery, however this created an unprecedented scenario, a huge flood of dollars to the market. The biggest cash inflow ever in the history of the world. The M1 metric went to $7.2T, to put it in perspective, since the 60's this has been oscillating in the $480B to $580B in the 70's when Nixon cancelled the convertibility of the Gold and Paul Volcker had to apply unprecedented meassures to fight the stagflation that followed after the dollar became fiat currency. The M1 increased 120% from its 60's level, the increase after the housing bubble burst went from $668B to $1.5T, approximately 225%. After the COVID halt it went from $1.5T to $7.25 T, an increase of 485%, inedit scenario in the history of the United States. The crisis sent the price of oil in the market of futures to a negative value, something that has never been seen, the unemployment reached record levels, the SP500 index fell to a range close to that when Trump became president, wiping off the rally that started shortly after that event, the inflation didn't react immediately, since this is a lagging indicator that reacts to the economy growth, and the access to currency. The amount of printed fiat currency flooding the market created the immediate wanted effect, the economy jumpstart that put everybody to work and reignited the economic machinery, the unemployment started to go down, the inflation ticked up, still within range, the price of gold ticked up, the price of oil started to recover, also within range. However we witnessed shortly after that the inflation was not stabilizing, we witnessed the traffic jam at the ports of entry to the United States, lines and lines of cargo ships waiting to unload at the ports of entry, stuck there just idling. The news blamed the Evergreen ship that blocked the Suez Canal, and affected the distribution lines, but the truth was an excessive demand of products from the Pacific producers that overwhelmed the existing port infrastructure. This was the root reason that affected the production lines in the US and contributed to a galloping inflation. Also, during the recovery cycle, let's remember that one commodity in high demand is oil, since the world moves on it. We saw unprecedented gas prices at the pump. Presidents don't have the power to increase or decrease the prices of gas, that is pure supply/demand, but they can be blamed for increases or take the credit for decreases. In a high demand environment, oil goes along the demand cycle, that is why in a recovery environment the oil prices go higher. Let's remember in the 70's during the stagflation period oil was a highly valued commodity and people were making large lines to load gas. The prices were upticking fast and the media blamed the arab world for it, but it was mere propaganda, what really happened it was just an economy running freely on cash and jacking up the prices. The Trump administration was at the peak of the economic cycle that started in 2009, with low inflation, full employment, low gas prices. After the pandemic the variables changed, the economy went to a sudden halt world wide, and in a desperate attempt to keep the presidency the administration authorized the humongous cash flow in an attempt to prevent the negative effects of the economy to affect the election. At the end Trump lost the election. The economy continued its extremely fast paced recovery path and it overshoot. The Fed chairman was purposely in "Denial" regarding inflation, neglecting it and calling it "transitory", which was more of a Greenspan "laissez faire" economic policy, let the wild animals in their "irrational exuberance" take over and later on we'll pick up the pieces and start the recovery process. This is how we got here now. Where do we go from here?, that is an interesting question, the flood of cash should have been made in a way that there was a recovery but not a rampant inflation, however this would have taken longer and the previous administration was not willing to wait. We have an amount of cash that the economy hasn't been able to absorb. Money is supported basically by the productivity, the working force, the commercial transactions, but there must be a correspondence so the economic variables are kept in check. The GDP vs the M1 is still at an outstanding level. The inflation is heading to the 2-2.5% goal, we're still at full employment, which basically puts us in what the fed have been calling a "soft landing". Will it be?? I suppose initially it will, but we risk facing the same scenario that happened during the stagflation in the 70's, Paul Volcker had a big dilemma, he increased the interest rates, but the inflation was completely out of control, people noticed they could buy an asset and basically turn around and sell it at a higher price, and they still found a buyer. Houses were on the rise, the agriculture also participated of the inflation benefits, farmers could buy a tractor, use it and resell it at a higher price. People in New York City were waiting in line before the jewelries opened so they could buy gold, and sell it later at a higher price. When Volcker decreased the interest rates after the message he sent was of stability and it backfired and inflation was reignited. Taking a look at the CBOE:SPX in the long run, we see there is a negative momentum divergence forming after it reached the All Time High (ATH). The indicators signal a downturn, that could possibly happen after the interest rates reach its pivot, the inflation is at the Fed Goals, unemployment goes beyond the full employment level and the economy shows signs of stalling. Bubbles happen all the time, we enjoy the ride until they burst. We're in a new bubble, the Cash Bubble. The cash should be enough to allow the economy to support it having a healthy inflation level of 2%, as defined by the Fed targets. If there is too much cash and the economy is not able to support it, it will dilute automatically until the economy growth catches up. For decades the ratio of M1 to GDP has been between 9% and 18% as we can see in the chart. After the cash flood it peaked to 85% and currently it is at 68%. I don't think the problem is far from over, even if we reach the 2% inflation target. The challenge for the Fed now is to keep the interest rates low for longer without stalling the economy. It is rumored that the Fed will pause the interest rate hike for their September FOMC meeting. It is expected considering the recent increases have been in the 1/4 of a point followed by a pause. If the pause is prolonged, the inflation reaches its 2-2.5% target and the unemployment is kept within the 4-5% range then the fed can call it a "Soft Landing" up to this point which could be a telegraphed signal to start reducing the interest rates, and the financial market may anticipate this pivot to create a bear market and shake the tree to dislocate and reallocate assets at a discount using all the big cash flood out there. Next year is a presidential election year, and not making it a priority has happened before. During the Volcker's period, he didn't mind pulling the rug on Carter. The Fed does what it has to do. "What has happened before will happen again. What has been done before will be done again. There is nothing new in the whole world." ~ Ecclesiastes 1:9 Patterns repeat because human nature hasn't changed for thousands of years. ~ Jesse Livermore. References Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country. William Greider. January, 1989 How the economic machinery works. by Ray Dalio. youtu.be Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio. youtu.be
SP:SPX
by Madrid
55
The VIX: A Measure of Market FearThe VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days. It is calculated using the prices of options on the S&P 500 index. A higher VIX indicates that market participants are expecting more volatility in the future, while a lower VIX indicates that they are expecting less volatility. The VIX is an important tool for investors because it can help them understand how risky the stock market is. A high VIX indicates that the market is expected to be volatile, which means that there is a greater chance of large price swings. This can make investing more risky, but it can also create opportunities for profit. The VIX is also correlated with the S&P 500 index. This means that the VIX tends to move in the opposite direction of the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 falls, the VIX tends to rise, and when the S&P 500 rises, the VIX tends to fall. This correlation is not perfect, but it is strong enough to be useful for investors. The VIX can be used in a variety of ways by investors. Some investors use the VIX to assess the risk of their portfolios. Others use the VIX to trade volatility, either by buying or selling VIX futures contracts. Still others use the VIX to hedge against risk in other assets. The VIX is a complex and volatile asset, but it can be a valuable tool for investors who understand how to use it. Here are some additional things to keep in mind about the VIX: The VIX is not a direct measure of the volatility of the stock market. It is a measure of the expected volatility, which means that it is based on the opinions of market participants. The VIX can be affected by a variety of factors, including economic news, political events, and natural disasters. The VIX is not always accurate. It can sometimes overshoot or undershoot the actual volatility of the stock market. Despite its limitations, the VIX is a valuable tool for investors. It can help investors understand the risk of the stock market and make informed investment decisions. I hope this post is helpful. This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
CAPITALCOM:VIXEducation
by YExplore
2
Trading Plans for MON. 09/11 - Potential Spike-up Ahead?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 09/11 Our current bearish bias for positional trading notwithstanding, our intraday models point to a possible spike up today. Shorts need to be patient and not jump the gun but wait for confirmation for initiating any new shorts. Our models indicate bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470 on a daily close basis. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4492, 4483, 4475, 4466, or 4459 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4487, 4480, 4472, or 4448 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4463 or 4457, and short exits on a break above 4450. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trading Plans for FRI. 09/08 - Back to the Basics - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/08 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 09/07: "The index failed to close below 4450 yesterday, but showed continued weakness. The price action in the pre-market session after the Initial Jobless Claims is showing the potential for further weakness to develop. The retail positioning and the retail sentiment reinforce our view for a downward push to follow in the coming days. Rising yields are renewed concern for the bulls". This bias is still applicable for today. Our models are sporting outright bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4483, 4472, 4459, 4455, 4444, or 4436 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4480, 4468, 4448, 4441, or 4434 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4457 or 4453, and short exits on a break above 4450. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #risingyields, #initialjoblessclaims
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Early Gains Friday Followed By More RedNOTE: All times eastern. Current position is SubMillennial 1, Grand Supercycle 5, Supercycle 2, Cycle C, Primary 1, Intermediate 3, and likely Minor wave 2. As we likely settle into Intermediate wave 3, it is time to find the potential end of Minor wave 1. To recap: Intermediate wave 3 (magenta/purple numbers) is comprised of 5 Minor waves. Each Minor wave (yellow numbers) is comprised of at least 3 Minute waves (green numbers), while the impulsive waves 1, 3, and 5 are made up of 5 waves. I have taken the current wave breakout and identified Minute waves 1 and 2 while maintaining a decent idea of where Minute wave 3 ended which was during the 1230-1330 trading hour on September 6. Based on the completed data from the likely Minute waves 1 and 2, I begin to forecast what Minute wave 3 can do. Based on the most specific historical dataset for Minute wave 3s in Minor wave 1s in Intermediate wave 3s, the minimum movement extension is 121.69%, with quartiles (pink levels) of 161.2%, 200.07%, and 300.76%. Strongest model agreement for duration of Minute wave 3 is a tie of 3 or 14 hours long, with secondary agreement at 4, 12, 19, or 20 hours. The next dataset is slightly broader and applies to waves ending in 1313. The minimum historical movement extension is 107.15%, with quartiles (light blue levels) at 129.54%, 178.48%, and 265.83%. The duration models have strongest agreement at 2 hours long, secondary is 4 hours, third is 5, fourth is 11, 14, 16, or 20. The broadest dataset is based on waves ending in 313 with extension quartiles (yellow levels) of 145.98%, 180.89%, 260%. Strongest model agreement is generally less than four hours long, while fourth strongest agreement is 12 hours, and fifth is 8 hours. My current placement of Minute wave 3’s endpoint was during hour 11 at 4442.38 and it is based on the wave 3 of 3 signal obtained during the 15 minute trading window at 1100 on September 6 as seen below. This is likely Minuette wave (white numbers) 3 inside of Minute wave 3 Marking this the end of Minute wave 3 would place the end of Minute wave 4 in the final hour of trading from September 6. The next question is what should Minute wave 5 look like? Based on the most specific historical dataset for Minute wave 5s in Minor wave 1s in Intermediate wave 3s, the minimum movement extension is 100.27%, with quartiles (pink levels) of 110.26%, 132.685%, and 149.24%. Strongest model agreement on duration is at 9 hours, with secondaries at 2, 3, 6, 10, and 15, third at 18 hours. Fourth most agreement is at 1, 4-5, 7, and 11 hours. The next dataset is slightly broader and applies to waves ending in 1315. The minimum historical movement extension has not changed while quartiles (light blue levels) are 107.03%, 121.73, and 141.35%. The duration models have strongest agreement at 4 hours, second at 2 hours, third at 9, fourth at 1, 11, & 12, with fifth at 3 & 5 hours. There is a chance the opening drop in the first hour of trading on September 7 ended Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1 based on the upward drift of trading during the rest of the day. If Minute wave 5 has not ended, it would be 7 hours long with more downside expected. I will conduct one final analysis due to most duration targets not fitting this narrative indicating the market is likely in Minor wave 2 upward. What will Minor wave 2 look like? Based on the most specific models Minor wave 2 could have a minimum movement retracement of 17.45% with quartiles of 31.03%, 48.98%, 60.38%. Duration models have strongest agreement at 2, 4, 6, and 12 hours long, with secondaries of 3 or 10 hours. The next slightly broader dataset places the quartile retracements at 11.80%, 38.26%, and 55.24%. The duration models agree the most at 21 hours, with secondaries at 7, 8, 10, 12, and 15 hours. Since 21 hours was the length of wave 1, it is not likely in this instance. The final dataset places quartiles at 27.66%, 43.675%, and 61.32%. Duration models agree the most at 21 hours, secondary at 10 hours, third at 3 or 5 hours, fourth at 4, 7, or 8, with fifth at 14 hours. It is possible Minor wave 2 also ended in the final hour of trading on September 7, but confirmation will not occur until noon on September 8. It is possible the market opens high early on Friday but returns to decline by the afternoon. I should put out the Minor wave 3 analysis this weekend. Looking ahead August CPI and the Fed could be interesting catalysts for the rest of Intermediate wave 3 down. Minor wave 3 could last until Monday of Fed week followed by Minor wave 4 drifting upward until the Fed speaks on that Wednesday. Minor wave 4 could top before that day ends and then the declines should continue for the following week and a half of September. A government shutdown could occur on September 30, and markets have typically been bullish during shutdowns so this should help spur the short-term October recovery.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Trading Plans for THU. 09/07 - Back to the BasicsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/07 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Wed. 09/06: "In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that confirmation". The index failed to close below 4450 yesterday, but showed continued weakness. The price action in the pre-market session after the Initial Jobless Claims is showing the potential for further weakness to develop. The retail positioning and the retail sentiment reinforce our view for a downward push to follow in the coming days. Rising yields are renewed concern for the bulls. Our models are sporting outright bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4490, 4472, 4445, or 4419 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4488, 4468, 4457, 4442, or 4415 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4459. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #risingyields, #initialjoblessclaims
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SP500 Is In A Higher Degree CorrectionSP500 has been bullish most of the year; a trend that can resume after a corrective pullback that is underway now, seen in wave 4 on a daily chart. However, wave 4 should then be made by three waves before correction can come to an end; which is not the case yet, as the recent bounce to 4492-4543 resistance area looks like a corrective wave, ideally wave (B), so be aware of more weakness after recent turn down. Ideally, wave (C) of 4 is now underway towards the lower side of a summer range. If wave (A) low is not going to be broken then wave four can also become a triangle rather than deep A-B-C drop.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ew-forecast
Consolidation, ContinuedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/06 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 09/05: "Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction". In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that confirmation. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4501, 4490, 4472, or 4445 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4496, 4488, 4468, 4459, or 4442 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4462. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #oilprices
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Consolidation Week Ahead?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 09/05 As we wrote in our trading plans published Fri. 09/01: "The NFP numbers paint a picture of potentially the hoped-for Goldilocks scenario could continue into the next Fed meeting, continue to push up the markets higher. On the flip side, any weakness in today's regular session could indicate the beginning of the end of the recent bull run". Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4432, 4418, or 4502 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4528, 4516, 4498, or 4488 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4510, and short exits on a break above 4491. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:41am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #oilprices
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Weekly Update: 4256 Remains the Next Target DownThe area of ES 4256 is welcoming to all who have a trading thesis. Whether you're bullish or bearish, that remains the short term target for SP500 Futures. Once that level is reached, it becomes a jump ball. In the above chart you'll notice an impulsive 5-wave count down labeled in BLUE, and an orange count labeled abc with an arrow pointing higher. The 4256 area is of the utmost importance. The outcome of bouncing or failing decides the direction for the remainder of 2023. Enjoy your Labor Day Weekend. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
5
SHORTING $SPY (MARKETS ARE OVERBOUGHT?)Why I am bearish on the S&P 500? - WBR Forecast indicator is BEARISH - We are entering a key zone which we've struggled to breakout from for the past 5 months. - Jim Cramer is bearish (Usually not a good thing lol) #inversecramer My personal trade: Stop Loss / Take Profits: - Entry: $455.45 - Take Profit 1: $432.24 - Take Profit 2: $412.06 - Take Profit 3: $386.44 - Stop Loss: $464.89 The Plan: Scale 50% of position at Take Profit 1 (TP1) and move stop loss to TP1. Scale 50% of remaining position at Take Profit 2 (TP2) and move stop loss to TP2. Scale rest of position at Take Profit 3.
AMEX:SPYShort
by fluxchart
5
NFP Numbers and the GoldilocksS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/01 As we wrote in our trading plans published Mon. 08/28: “If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias”. We got this confirmation with Monday's close, and our models have turned cautiously bullish on Tue. 08/29. Ever since, the markets have been on the upswing heading into - and, post - the NFP numbers release this morning. The NFP numbers paint a picture of potentially the hoped-for Goldilocks scenario could continue into the next Fed meeting, continue to push up the markets higher. On the flip side, any weakness in today's regular session could indicate the beginning of the end of the recent bull run. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4568, 4547, 4532, 4509, or 4491 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4565, 4543, 4517, 4506, or 4488 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4555 or 4529, and short exits on a break above 4559 04 4522. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nfp, #jobs, #nonfarmpayrolls, #payrolls
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Time For The Long Await Selloff?IF Intermediate wave 2 finally ended, this will serve as the current preliminary analysis for tracking Intermediate wave 3 down. Confirmation of Intermediate wave 2 ending will take at least 3 more days, so this analysis is subject to change. Based on the most specific historical models that are relationally relevant to an Intermediate wave 3, the quartile movement extensions serving as checkpoints and likely bottom (pink levels on chart) for Intermediate wave 3 are 165.83%, 181.41%, and 227.27%. The models cannot agree on a specific duration in hours, however, there are pockets of agreement with the strongest at 168-175 hours, secondary is 185-192, third is 149-156 hours. The next set of data is slightly broader and places the quartile movement extensions (light blue levels) at 147.09%, 165.83%, and 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 70 hours (which was the length of Intermediate wave 2), secondary is 112 (length of Intermediate wave 1) and 426 hours while third model agreement is at 155, 174, and 199 hours. The broader set of historical data has extension quartiles (yellow levels) at 141.46%, 176.435%, and the third quartile remains at 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is 70 and 426 hours (which are unlikely for wave 3) with secondaries at 112, 142, and 224 (double length of wave 1). Third most agreement is at 168, 174, and 213 hours. Preliminary forecast is the bottom around 174 hours which is around October 6th. The bottom could be between 4114-4156, but likely below 4140. The levels in this assessment will not change but the forecasts for the bottom will be updated in future forecasts as each of the 5 waves near completion. Intermediate wave 4 should begin more upward movement after Intermediate wave 3 has completed. September looks like a selloff, but October should claw back 20-50% of the losses.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler