The S&P500 is preparing for an insane rallyHello Traders and Investors,
My name is Philip and I am a German swing-trader with over 4 years of trading experience.
I only trade the higher timeframes, preferably the monthly chart, because this allows me to capitalize on the major market swings.
I view trading as a long term game over the next 20 years which will help me to build massive wealth - it is not a get rich quick scheme.
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Today I want to share with you my outlook on the S&P500:
Over the past almost 15 years the S&P500 has been respecting a super simple bullish trendline. Always when the S&P500 tested this level, we saw a major rally towards the upside. And now the S&P500 is about to retest this trendline again and I do expect another push higher.
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Most of the people always follow the quick money. But the quick money is never the big money.
They think that making 5% a month consistently is reasonable, which is one of the reasons why so many traders fail.
The only think which you can control is your risk, everything else is unknown.
Keep your long term vision!
Sp500index
S&P 500 - Time to Go Short 📉🔥Why am i speculating Against the Market at this moment:
Tomorrow's Inflation (CPI) is expected to soar, thanks to the recent Oil price surge. This is a red flag 🚩
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are adding fuel to the fire, causing market jitters globally 🌍
While rate hikes may be on hold, there's no sign of rate cuts either. Not a good look 👀
Let's Talk Numbers 📊:
Resistance stands strong at 4420 🛑
First target is 4327 🎯
Second target is 4210 🎯
Honestly, I'm not too keen on trading much these days. The world's current state, filled with conflict and loss, is affecting my mood. 😔
Why is there so much hate in 2023? It's disheartening. 🙏
Sending out prayers for peace, wisdom, and a better tomorrow for humanity. 🕊️
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Market Top Soon, Bottom Next and Santa RallyTarget boxes are based on derivative analysis of historical waves performance. This will be the first use and test of the new analytical toolset. According to the tool, Intermediate wave 4 does not have much room for the top, looks like ceiling is 4402, which is less than originally expected. Next reversal point will be a low around 4180 which is much higher than originally expected. The timeframe for this low is also pretty quick as Intermediate wave 5 is only expected to last 34-54 trading hours, when Intermediate wave 1 was 112, and Intermediate wave 3 was in the 150s. Once the bottom is in, it will end Primary wave 1 meaning a corrective wave upward will occur over the following weeks which should take the market up through mid- to late-November. 2023 could end on a positive note, however it is masking the damage Primary wave 3 down will do through the first to second quarter of 2024.
$UVXY $120+ BUY CALLSUVXY is a volatility factor in the market. As political tensions rise high in the world, we are due for another market correction and overall world market corrections. USA of course is protecting its interest in the Middle East and as we can see, Israel-Palestine conflict is only getting started. This is a multi-decade war between Israel and Arab/Muslim states.
However, this war is not going to be similar to previous, this will be final and deciding war in that region, after which, nothing will be left there and geographical borders will change. This is a political game because of all the resources hidden, particularly Oil, in the Middle East. I believe this time we will see a use of nuclear weapons.
There will be de-stabilization in that region and rest of the world. UVXY will spike due to this. I'm not sure about my timing, but I see these tensions rising very high and markets staying volatile within near future.
Please check out my other predictions as they are fairly accurate, I don't post a lot, but I think this time I might be right.
ES Hourly AnalysisES Hourly - Simple Analysis.
To keep it as simple as possible:
4365 is a key level as clearly depicted. While we are below it, there is bearish sentiment. Above it, bullish.
~4345 is a one hour demand zone because this is where price was able to fill the gap, while also having a strong push above a previous high and breaking above prior resistance. Price has tapped into that demand and has currently shown strength, but we need to see it get back above 4365.
SPX500 Bearish Reversal , Time to fall Hello traders as you can see in my analysis it seems like spx500 has changed from an uptrend to a down trend forming a head and shoulder a classic bearish reversal pattern .
i believe the price is being influenced by the dollar monetary policy and the situation in Palestine so watch out for that .
but technically speaking , the price is coming down.
please share with me your thoughts below .
short at 4342-50 to target short time 4310-15 so an easy 30 pipsshort #sp500 #us500 at 4342 with very short time tp at 4311-15 around so a good 30 pips in pocket ,for long term or short term dependt of the #us #cpi tomorrow there the target 2 on simply chart below #nasdaq too can short for 50 pips no problem #gold #wti #eurusd #usdjpy #gbpusd
-much overbought and up for no reason
-while "vix" up in same time,so strange
ES - Bullish Analysis Quick ES Daily Analysis - Bullish/Neutral - Building 4 Hour Bull Flag into a Break and Retest
Thursday & Friday we saw a nice rejection off of 4430's backtest. Now we are at a recent break and retest level of 4340-4350 that was resistance for about 3 days from 28 Sep - 02 Oct. I'd say if we want to see more upside, this is where bulls need to hold in order to break above 4430's resistance. We are also sort of building a 4 hour bull flag into this level. We could very well dip back down into the weekly demand of 4265, but on Monday, depending on how ES's overnight acts, I'll be looking for longs in this area.
If we break below this retest zone, ES could put 4300 back in play for the shorts (from a daily analysis standpoint).
S&P500 Looks like a good opportunity to grab some liquidityHello trader! I'm interpreting this setup as follows: locally, the trend is upward. After a correction driven by recent news, the price has absorbed a significant portion of the liquidity from below, which was formed during the current week. There's room to move upward in pursuit of the next liquidity. I'm placing the stop loss below the order block.
🚀Please support my efforts with the "Boost" button.
❤️And a comment is the best thing you can do for me now!
Earnings Season Kicks OffS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 10/13
Today marks the kick off of the Q3 earnings season, and a potential inflection points in the geopolitical risks with signs of potential ground operations to begin by Israel in Gaza. Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation - reiterated by this morning's CPI numbers, extremely strong jobs market, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased this week again. Is this Fools rushing in where Angels fear to tread or retail investors having some crystal ball into the future that institutions don't have access to? Only time can tell.
However, our AI-driven models (since 2018 - not a "me too AI" bandwagon hopper) have negated the bearish bias yesterday, Tue. 10/10, based on the last two sessions' price action and in line with what we have been publishing for the last week or so: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4402, 4384, 4371, 4361, or 4312 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4398, 4357, 4348, 4332, or 4308 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4380, 4375, or 4367, and explicit short exits on a break above 4353 or 4336. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:11am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical, #earnings
If Minor B was today, final top is Tuesday stillLast night's analysis of forecasting Minute wave B said models liked it at 4 hours long, secondary agreement at 6, and third was 3 hours. It was only 2 hours old at that time of writing. If Minute B was the top today it finished at 5 hours old. The top was 40 cents above the prior high, which can only happen in a B wave which does not help rule a scenario out.
The low achieved by what could be Minute wave C and subsequently Minor wave B was hit on cue today, the levels never mattered since they were based on Minute wave A's movement and not Minute B.
Last night's analysis said Minute wave C in Minor wave B could be 2-4 hours long, which I thought was too short and especially hard to achieve if we did not gap down at the open. I did not think a 65 point drop in a few hours could happen today if not catalyzed by the CPI report premarket. Well it surely dropped in 2 hours. I stated the bottom for Minute wave C was favored between 4320-4345, and liked the window between 4320-4335. Sure enough, the low was 4325.43.
All of these things working out support the case for Minor wave B down to have completed and now we are in the final leg up with Minor wave C. This final leg up was initially projected to see a market top around 4400, based on the adjustment made on Minor wave A's close yesterday. The top was projected to occur by Tuesday.
Right now, Minor wave C up appears to last 16-22 hours which is likely a top on Tuesday between 4420-4448. This is quite a bit higher than the initial projection and above all prior 3rd quartile datapoints. Does not mean this is impossible, but it set up to overachieve the "normal" movement.
Once Intermediate wave 4 is complete, Intermediate wave 5 will likely take the market down through all of earnings season. For the first time in a while this could be a bad earnings season, not sure if companies are finally or only starting to see less profit. The Fed will meet and possibly hike in this middle of Intermediate wave 5 down as well. Israel conflict may not last long enough to impact economies and force the Fed to be more hawkish than initially suggested this week. Oil is rising. PPI went up. CPI went up. Initial job claims dropped well below expectations. Initial forecast is Intermediate wave 5 down to likely last through November placing a bottom around 4100. As this would also conclude Primary wave 1 down, December could begin a 2-3 month rally during Primary wave 2 up.
Fools Rushing In or Angels' Crystal Ball? Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 10/12
Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation - reiterated by this morning's CPI numbers, extremely strong jobs market, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased this week again. Is this Fools rushing in where Angels fear to tread or retail investors having some crystal ball into the future that institutions don't have access to? Only time can tell.
However, our AI-driven models (since 2018 - not a "me too AI" bandwagon hopper) have negated the bearish bias yesterday, Tue. 10/10, based on the last two sessions' price action and in line with what we have been publishing for the last week or so: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4401, 4388, 4380, 4347, or 4337 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4398, 4368, 4355, 4343, or 4334 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4385 or 4376, and explicit short exits on a break above 4359 or 4371. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:32am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical, #cpi
elliot at sp500elliot prediction without news at sp 500
sp500 bull power in my sight, im just betting on it, did not follow any macroeconomic data yet just by the maket move this analisys and nothing else, this is not a profitable trade, just get an idea what i am doing on these days, hope you trade safe.
Fools Rushing In or Angels' Crystal Ball? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 10/11
Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation, extremely strong jobs market, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back (per Walmart's CEO)...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased last week. Is this Fools rushing in where Angels fear to tread or retail investors having some crystal ball into the future that institutions don't have access to? Only time can tell.
However, our AI-driven models (since 2018 - not a "me too AI" bandwagon hopper) have negated the bearish bias yesterday, Tue. 10/10, based on the last two sessions' price action and in line with what we have been publishing for the last week or so: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4401, 4390, 4381, 4359, or 4321 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4397, 4376, 4356, 4332, or 4315 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4387, and explicit short exits on a break above 4335. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical
🟩 Margin Debt with brokers points upWhen we look at the first chart the Margin Debt with brokers (aka how much the brokers are deploying margin) - we see a positive relationship with the times when brokers are on margin (aka buying a lot) and the market going up.
When we analyse the Rate of Change of this stat for the last 15months we can see that currently we are getting to a state of bearishness close to the 2008 and 2002 periods. This of course is a contrarian indicator and could point to a move higher.
This is a long term assessment, but it is a good point to include in your analysis.
However remember we NEVER have confirmed of the NET NEW HIGHS - hence this market has still not confirmed Bull Status, at best we have Bull-transition. So be very cautious of the market.
Next Leg Down, Top Next WeekLooks like Minor wave A likely finished today, next up is Minor wave B. Models point to 18-22 hours of possible duration which will likely see the bottom on Thursday. There are a three pockets of interest for the bottom. I used the green box (4281-4294) for the more conservative zone, yellow (4255-4275) for the more aggressive zone and my target is the white box (4270-4285) straddling both boxes. Depending how Minor wave B plays out, Minor wave C and Intermediate wave 4 are currently projected to end early next week between 4355-4390.
METHODOLOGY:
I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
SP500 making a liquidity runHello, traders. Opening a trade on SP500. We're currently in an upward trend and might encounter some liquidity grabs before a local correction from the top. Downside movement for liquidity is expected to be more challenging at the moment. I'm pinpointing the entry at the order block and setting the stop loss below it.
Fools Rushing In Or Angels' Crystal Ball?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 10/10
Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back (per Walmart's CEO)...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased last week. Is this Fools rushing in where Angels fear to tread or retail investors having some crystal ball into the future that institutions don't have access to? Only time can tell.
However, our AI-driven models (since 2018 - not a "me too AI" bandwagon hopper) have negated the bearish bias, based on the last two sessions' price action and in line with what we have been publishing for the last week or so: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4379, 4357, 4343, 4322, or 4300 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4375, 4353, 4338, 4319, or 4297 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4307, and explicit short exits on a break above 4315. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical
Green to start week, low by ThursdayAs a future learning lesson, the below image signaled wave 3 of 3 of 3, wave 3 of 3, and the beginning of the end of Intermediate wave 3 as soon as the Intermediate wave 3 signal ended, I should have known Intermediate wave 3 was over as historically this is the signal. The bottom was inline with historical endpoints, however, I expected it to go about 50-70 points lower.
Assuming Intermediate wave 3 is indeed over, it ended higher than originally expected which means Primary wave 1 could ended higher than expected too. I missed the beginning of Intermediate wave 4, but this analysis should assist in pinpointing the end of it. The Intermediate wave recap is:
Intermediate wave 1 lost 271.76 points in 112 hours.
Intermediate wave 2 gained 205.94 points in 76 hours.
Intermediate wave 3 lost 324.80 points in 151 hours.
This idea had quality data to forecast the top of Intermediate wave 2:
This idea from August 31st forecasted the bottom of Intermediate wave 3 around October 6, which now appears to be 3 days late:
Although the length pocket called out 149-156 hours long, it was a tertiary model. The answer was there but I will see if I can provide stronger forecasts in the future.
I originally expected Intermediate wave 4 to last a week or two and rise toward 4450, but some of the following analyses do not favor this expectation. The initial models based on historical retracement levels for Intermediate wave 4’s top puts the maximum upward move at 4448.57, although most models place the maximum possibility no higher than 4429. A majority of movement retracement models place the top between 4355.74-4364.70 which is not far from Friday’s close. The overall movement models have strong pockets for the top between 4370-4380 and 4400-4409.
Duration models are strongest at 76 hours (length of wave 2), 112 hours (length of wave 1), and 38 hours (half the length of wave 2). It is unlikely any of these will be the duration, simply because the relationships of 1:1 and 1:2 are more common in micro waves and not in macro waves. For instance, a micro wave that is 10 hours could have a wave 4 that is 5 or 10 hours because the possible duration value is limited. Macro waves which are much longer typically don’t have the perfect 1:1 or 1:2 relationships. If we keep these durations in mind, but discount them when looking for others, the models next agree the most at 56 hours, followed by 37 hours, 25, 51, 101, 30, and then 67. Intermediate wave 4 is currently 23 hours long as of the close on Friday.
56 hours ends on the afternoon of October 13.
37 hours would be in the final hour of trading on October 10.
25 hours would be within the first 2 hours of trading on October 9.
51 hours would be in the final hour of trading on October 12.
101 hours is around the early hours on October 24.
30 hours would be the final hour of trading on Monday, October 9.
67 hours falls in the early hours on October 17.
THEORY 1: END OF INTERMEDIATE WAVE 4 IMMINENT
Keeping these durations in mind, I have attempted to figure out which waves have already been completed in Intermediate wave 4. A 25-30 hour theory would make the assumption that Minor waves A and B are completed and Minor wave C is not, Minor wave C could do the following.
Models call for a duration between 8-11 hours and the current length as of Friday’s close was 5 hours. The movement extension models call for the high at levels at or below 4317. The three historical outlier datapoint levels could have the highs at 4320, 4361, and 4427. With the majority of realistic levels all being breached, it appears unlikely Intermediate wave 4 is nearly over. Based on the levels forecast for Minor wave C in this case, it is more likely Intermediate wave 4 ended at 4324.10 in the second to last hour of trading on Friday which seems way too fast and is a red flag that this theory is unlikely. Confirmation of this theory is downward action breaking below 4216.45 this week.
THEORY 2: EARLY STAGES OF INTERMEDIATE WAVE 4
If longer duration models are more accurate, the index may only be in Minor wave A and likely just completed Minute wave 3 based on the wave 3 signal at the bottom of the chart. If this holds true, the following should occur next.
First we will forecast where Minute wave 3 should end based on Minute waves 1 and 2. The current median levels based on historical models place the high between 4322.98-4329.85 which is where the current high achieved on Friday. The third quartile levels are between 4368.99-4388.60 while the three highest outliers sit between 4426.30-4445.64. A strong majority of duration models have Minute wave 3 lasting 4 hours or less. The only other pocket of strength is at 8-9 hours long. At the very least, it is already 5 hours and is either complete, or will complete within the first few hours of trading on Monday.
No matter what, it appears the next movement should be downward. Unfortunately, this downward movement is required for both models and the only difference is the first theory would see continued declines into Intermediate wave 5, and the latter theory would see continued upward movement after a Minor wave B decline concludes. Tomorrow likely has three possibilities:
(1) The index opens down in the first hour before it climbs up toward 4330 and end Minute wave 3.
(2) The index moves up toward 4330 and end Minute wave 3.
(3) The index moves down and does not recover on Monday.
The market will then move downward to complete Minute wave 4 likely lasting at least the remainder of Monday and possibly beginning of Tuesday. After Minute wave 4 completes, Minute wave 5 and Minor wave A will end somewhere between 4340-4370 before midday Wednesday. Minor wave B would then take the market down until late Thursday or early Friday. Minor wave C will take the market upward into the middle to end of next week around 4385. I plan to continue monitoring and updating throughout Intermediate wave 4. The current placement of Minute wave 4, Minor waves A & B, and Intermediate wave 4 are nominally placed and not the final forecasted placement.
METHODOLOGY:
I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.