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GOOGL: Gap-Filling Strategy with Exciting 6% Upside Potential !Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:GOOGL On January 31, 2024, Alphabet's stock exhibited a gap down in after-hours trading subsequent to the disclosure of lower-than-anticipated ad revenue. Following this, the stock stabilized its descent, finding support at both the bullish trendline and the EMA90 line, indicating a possible rebound in this zone. Furthermore, a bullish hammer pattern emerged, accompanied by elevated trading volume. These technical indicators commonly suggest a potential upward movement, either to close the gap or reach the predefined target area. It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on GOOGL." Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
6
S&P 500 Bull Market: Balancing Opportunity and UncertaintyThe S&P 500's remarkable surge to unprecedented heights, with a staggering 39% increase from its October 2022 low, signals a robust bull market that has captivated investors worldwide. Yet, amidst the euphoria, concerns linger about the optimal timing for investment, prompting a closer examination of the current market landscape. Undoubtedly, the current bull market presents ample opportunities for investors to capitalize on potential earnings. Despite reaching record highs, there remains significant room for growth, making procrastination a potential pitfall. Delaying investment decisions risks missing out on the market's upward trajectory, potentially foregoing substantial returns. However, prudence dictates a nuanced understanding of the market's dynamics, recognizing both its positive and negative aspects. Historical data provides invaluable insights into navigating similar market conditions, offering lessons from past experiences. Consider the aftermath of the Great Recession, where the S&P 500's recovery was gradual, taking several years to reach new all-time highs. Investors who hesitated to enter the market during this period may have missed out on significant gains, underscoring the importance of a long-term perspective. Conversely, attempting to time the market perfectly carries inherent risks. Waiting too long to invest may lead to missed opportunities, while overcaution could result in lost potential gains. The unpredictability of short-term market movements adds another layer of complexity, highlighting the challenges of making accurate forecasts. In light of these factors, adopting a strategy of dollar-cost averaging can offer a prudent approach to investing. By making regular investments over time, regardless of market fluctuations, investors can mitigate the risks associated with trying to time the market. This method allows for the smoothing out of price volatility, providing a more stable path towards wealth accumulation. Ultimately, the key to navigating the S&P 500 bull market lies in recognizing the inherent trade-offs between opportunity and uncertainty. While the allure of potential gains is enticing, prudent risk management and a long-term perspective are essential for sustainable investment success. By embracing a disciplined approach and leveraging time as their ally, investors can navigate the complexities of the market with confidence, maximizing their chances of long-term financial growth and prosperity.
TVC:SPXLong
by FOREXN1
1
Nice runThe SP has had a nice bull run the past 5 weeks. Now is hitting an important psychological and technical resistance at 500. It might try to break it on the upcoming days but I think it's going to pull back hard soon. I'm already taking profits I have cash sitting there until new opportunities come. I still have some long positions but I'm mostly in cash. Also I'm long in the Dollar on short term. Looks strong, I'm shorting AUD/USD and GBP/USD. Don't be greedy, be smart and patient.
AMEX:SPY
by ArturoL
S&P 500: Resilient Rise Challenges Upper ResistanceThe S&P 500's latest weekly close at 4971 reflects ongoing bullish momentum, positioned just below the upper Bollinger Band resistance of 5136.3. The market's resilience is further underscored by the MACD's positive divergence above its signal line. Looking down, the Simple Moving Average at 4854.7 serves as the pivotal support, reinforcing the trend's strength. As the index navigates between these technical boundaries, the near-term outlook suggests a cautious but optimistic view for potential upward continuation.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by MonoCoinSignal
FRED has lost control of the train. They are completely stuck.This is why the next 6-12 months in the markets are going to make zero sense. 2020 the FRED not only created money they injected so much unnecessary money that have they not enforced global lockdowns the "2022 mini bubble" would have looked like 2000. Markets will follow and always adjust to debasement meaning your earnings / your P/E ratios are useless in this environment. The FRED tried raising rates the fastest in history to front run the M2 Velocity (money changing hands / transacting) but there's still simply too much money created, markets are finding support and have not "corrected" enough to off set lowering rates. If the FRED does not lower rates look at the red line on chart 2 the Federal government will blow up due to to debt. There's only one solid choice here, Option 1 "Global bust" meaning governments will default inflation will go negative no GDP growth safety nets will fail. Option 2 "Global debasement" The FRED starts lowering rates cheap credit will flow into stock markets / gold / bitcoin Money Market Funds will pour back into the markets M2V will go parabolic reigniting a dangerous inflation cycle. Once that blue box on chart two is broken this means its over. Considering how much of the market is pricing / preparing for a "collapse" yes a collapse will happen but what happens if its the currency debasement and not markets that fall? Correct, you need to re enter all markets. Lets see how this plays out towards year end.
TVC:NDQLong
by FederalXBT
SPY | TA AMEX:SPY Overall Trend: The SPY has been on an upward trend, as indicated by the upward-sloping blue trendline, signaling bullish momentum. Candlesticks: There is a mixture of bullish and bearish candles; however, the bullish candles have larger bodies, indicating stronger buying pressure. The large white candlestick followed by a smaller one suggests continued buying interest but with some consolidation. Moving Averages: The SPY is trading above both the short-term and long-term moving averages, signifying a bullish signal. The upward trajectory of the moving averages further confirms the bullish trend. Support and Resistance: Bullish Line (Resistance turned Support): The SPY has broken above a resistance line, now potentially acting as support around the 497 level. Bearish Line (Resistance): If the SPY retraces, a previous resistance level of around 495.93 might act as new support. Price Targets: Target Price 1: If there's a pullback, the first lower target could be around the 495.36 USD level. Target Price 2: A further target for a pullback could be near the 493.97 level. Target Price 1 (Bullish): If the upward trend continues, an initial target could be near the recent high of around 498.70. Target Price 2 (Bullish): A continuation of the bullish momentum might aim for a higher target, potentially above the 502 mark. Volume: The chart does not show a significant spike in volume alongside the large bullish candlestick, which could suggest that the buying interest might not be as strong as it could be with higher volume. Summary: The SPY exhibits bullish momentum, with recent price action suggesting continued interest from buyers. The break above what could be interpreted as a "Bullish Line" is a positive indicator, but the lack of a volume spike could warrant cautious optimism. Potential pullbacks should be monitored, and the support levels around 495.93 and 493.97 could be key areas to watch. ** It's overextended, but the market may sustain this position and continue to rise; therefore, opening a short position does not make sense without any confirmation.
AMEX:SPY
by shkspr
S&P Kissed 5000 levelUSD: S&P 500 at 5000 US asset markets are having a good few weeks. Equity benchmarks are pushing up to fresh highs and last night's US 10-year Treasury auction saw decent demand. Leading the charge in US equities has been the big tech stocks. Just looking across the consensus price targets of the 'magnificent seven', the targets remain anywhere from 6% (AAPL) to 20% (AMZN) above last night's closing levels. The only one of the seven with a lower price target is Nvidia, where this year's 50% rally has overshot a price target largely there since last summer. Whether the psychological 5000 level in the S&P 500 now proves something of a hurdle remains to be seen. But from the equity analyst community anyway, the consensus is that there is more to come. After the Fed/Powell pushed back hard on a rate cut in March, and, the payrolls data reinforced the message, the market's attention is shifting to the May meeting probabilities. We believe the Fed’s hiking cycle is complete and that the Fed will remain on hold at the current Fed funds rate range of 5.25-5.5% until the first 25bp cut in May, after which we expect 25bp cuts in June, July, and September followed by quarterly cuts until the terminal rate range reaches 3.25-3.5% in September 2025, although the risks are skewed toward a June start to rate cuts. On balance sheet policy, we expect the Fed to announce that it will start tapering the pace of balance sheet runoff in May and to end runoff in 1Q25.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Elite_Forex
Extension of the trend? Or a large corrective pattern?Dear Friends, I hope this message finds you well and that you're having a great start to the week. I wish you success in your business endeavors. As someone interested in the Elliott Wave principle, I find it a valuable tool for analyzing the market. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. I am sharing my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. I aim to share my unbiased analysis with you so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions. The first analysis is Litecoin In the attachment, you will find my previous analysis of the same market, so you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand (although having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily). I have been studying the Elliott Wave principle for almost three years now. With time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has increased. What I have achieved so far is a legacy of a genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott, and I am truly satisfied with my progress. May his soul rest in peace and his memory be cherished. Thank you for your support so far. I am grateful and will always remember your kindness. Please feel free to share your thoughts and feedback with me. I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best. Sincerely,
SPREADEX:SPX
by mehdi47abbasi79
The Pitfalls of P&L Obsession in Trading 📉🧘‍♂️Hey TradingView Community! 👋 Today, let's talk about something that often takes center stage in our trading journey: Profit and Loss (P&L). While it's natural to be driven by the desire for profits, it's crucial to understand the importance of avoiding an unhealthy obsession with P&L. 🚫 P&L Obsession: The Downfall of Many Traders 🚫 🔹 Emotional Rollercoaster: Constantly staring at your P&L can be emotionally draining. Every tick in the wrong direction can lead to anxiety, overtrading, and impulsive decisions. Remember, trading is as much about mental discipline as it is about strategy. 🔹 Short-Term Focus: Focusing solely on your P&L can lead to a short-term mindset, where you're more concerned with daily or even hourly fluctuations rather than the bigger picture. This can lead to missing out on long-term opportunities. 🔹 Neglecting Risk Management: An obsession with profits can make you neglect the crucial aspect of risk management. Proper risk management is the backbone of successful trading and should never be overshadowed by potential gains. ✅ The Right Approach: 🔹 Trade the Process, Not the P&L: Instead of fixating on your P&L, concentrate on following your trading plan and strategy diligently. Your consistent actions and adherence to a well-thought-out plan will eventually lead to a positive P&L. 🔹 Focus on Learning: Use each trade, whether it ends in profit or loss, as an opportunity to learn and improve. Analyze your trades, identify mistakes, and adapt your strategy accordingly. 🔹 Patience is Key: Trading is a long-term endeavor. Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither is a successful trading career. Embrace the ups and downs, and remember that consistent, disciplined trading will yield results over time. 🔹 Balance is Everything: Strike a balance between monitoring your P&L and staying emotionally detached from it. You should be aware of your financial health but not consumed by it. 🔹 Community Support: Engage with the TradingView community for insights, advice, and emotional support. We're all in this together! In conclusion, while tracking your P&L is essential in trading, it should not become an obsession that clouds your judgment and emotions. Remember that trading is a journey, and the focus should be on continuous improvement, risk management, and discipline. Stay patient, stay calm, and success will follow. 🌟📈 Share your thoughts and experiences on this topic! How do you strike a balance between tracking P&L and maintaining a healthy trading mindset? Let's discuss! 👇💬
SP:SPX
by Astonut
SP500 ready to breakout of the Wedge - Which direction though?There are conflicting signals with the SP500. Yes it is definitely in a BULL market no doubt about that. This is defined as a rising trend and with 7>21>200. And the price is above 200MA (main decider). However, the indicators are showing a potential Sell Divergence as the RSI is making lower highs. This does seem to be a Rising Wedge but the concern is the low direction of the prior trend. This is a classic example to play the trade depending on the breakout. If it breaks up the next target could head to 5,531 If it breaks down, we could see it heading back to the 200MA with a target of 4,415 Which direction are you vouching for?
SP:SPX
by Timonrosso
$4,900 a historic momentYesterday, the SPX closed above $4,900 for the first time in history. Now, the question is, can it close above this level for multiple consecutive days? If yes, it will be positive for the index. However, a breakdown below $4,900 will be slightly concerning. Similarly concerning will be if RSI, MACD, and Stochastic start reversing to the downside on the daily graph. As a result, we will keep monitoring the situation and update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the SPX and simple support/resistance levels. Illustration 1.02 While waiting to see what path the SPX will take, we want to note that investors’ confidence seems to be eroding in the Chinese markets despite the announcement of new stimulus measures in the last two weeks. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Its purpose is purely educational.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
1
SPX500 - BULLISH OR BULLISH? (TARGET 4910 AND BEYOND)A bit of a late post as the market is moving faster than my fingers can type but let's see how relevant this is regardless. Here is what I see: What is on the chart? (follow the steps) 1) A strong price accumulation that gives us a potential liquidity target for later on! For now bullish until said otherwise. 2) The BOS level that serves as support. 3) The formation of a trendline which is bullish. 4) Our 1 Hour bearish FVG that may stunt price temporarily. Hence my trajectory leading downwards first! 5) ( NOW ) An accumulation structure that may propel price or lead it lower to our GOLDEN LEVEL! 6) The entry of the Gods. Yes, I am very enthusiastic but if I were to enter, it is here. We have an FVG + fib reload zone + trendline + hourly Kumo. I mean what else does a trader need? A crystal ball? No. 7) The final target. If we're bullish, what better than an ATH as a target? As always, stay cold headed (unlike myself because when I see such a beautiful confluence of entry conditions, I just get excited) and happy trading! ;)
FX:SPX500Long
by Lexi_Is_Trading
SPX S&P 500 TO 5000 Sure, here's a bullish perspective on the S&P 500 index: 1. **New Bull Market**: The S&P 500 index has officially entered a new bull market¹²⁵. This is a positive sign for investors as it indicates a period of rising prices and investor confidence¹. 2. **High Interest Rates**: Despite high interest rates, which were one reason for the stock market decline in 2022, the S&P 500 has shown resilience¹. This could be an opportunity for certain stocks that benefit from these conditions¹. 3. **Strong Performance**: The S&P 500 index has continued to climb to new highs in recent days². This upward trend is a positive sign for investors. 4. **Rare Bullish Signal**: Stocks have flashed a rare bullish signal that suggests the S&P 500 is about to soar another 20% next year³. This signal has only occurred seven times over the last 44 years, leading to an average gain of at least 20% in the S&P 500 over the next year³. 5. **Diversification**: The S&P 500 includes around 500 large cap equity stocks, providing a diversified investment that spreads risk across many sectors². Information technology represents the largest sector, with 28.9% of the index².
SP:SPXLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
While China eases, it's still too early for the U.S. After testing $4,900 yesterday, the SPX retreated slightly lower. Currently, it trades near $4,870, and we keep monitoring the resistance at $4,900 and support at $4,800. We are also paying close attention to the RSI, which broke above 70 points on the daily graph; the invalidation of the breakout will raise a slight concern, and the same will apply to the spike in the VIX. Besides all these things, we will keep an eye on the Chinese markets, which saw a ban on short-selling being imposed last week and which failed to halt the crashing market. That prompted regulators to announce new stimulus measures and cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points (effective from 5th February 2024). Due to these major changes, we have changed our stance on the Chinese equity markets and are no longer bearish. However, it is still yet to see whether these measures will have a lasting effect (remember, plenty of other measures were implemented in the past few years, failing to halt the multi-year decline). Despite all this optimism and similar expectations among investors for the easing in the U.S., we remain highly cautious (and skeptical that the FED will cut rates in the next two meetings). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the SPX’s RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above 70 points. Illustration 1.02 The image above displays three major Chinese indices on the daily time frame. It can be observed that volume began to quickly increase alongside equities following the announcement of the boost to the economy. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
A Bearish 2024--Can We Move Down Yet?Early guess of the bottom is between November 2024 and March 2025 which relatively falls in line with the originally projected bottom from July 4, 2022. This is where Cycle B has topped thus far. It was in the larger target area from my December 13, 2023 analysis, albeit at the tail end of the box. Time for the study models. 1 - MOVEMENT EXTENSION STUDY The movement percentage extensions have not changed from the recent initial analyses for Cycle wave C. The range for the bottom is likely below 3365 and above 2733. 2 - SPECIFIC WAVE RELATIONSHIP STUDY The price models have a few pockets of interest which are the squares at the bottom right of the chart and included in the close-up image below. The strongest pocket across the models places the low between 3100-3200. Next strongest pocket is 3000-3050. Third is at 2750-2800. Additional pockets to consider are at 2900-2950 and 3300-3350. The lowest pocket (magenta rectangle) below 2800 is likely out of reach while the 3300-3350 model may be too high. The bottom is likely between 2900-3200. The duration models strongly favor matching durations and fractions thereof from Cycle wave A and B's duration. Based on the macro nature of the forecasted wave, I will discard these durations as explanations can be found in my prior analyses. Duration pockets of interest are strongest at 680-700 trading hours 2720-2740, and 900-920. These pockets may be too long and too short based on the additional studies, however, an interesting pocket exists at 1820-1860 and 1850-1900 trading hours. Additional considerations are at 1640-1660 and 2040-2060. 3 - DERIVATIVE MODEL STUDY While this study is suitable for waves 3, 4, 5, and C; not enough data is available based on the macro nature of the current wave and this study was not conducted. 4 - KEY RELATIONSHIP METRIC STUDY There are unique elements and descriptions for the behavior observed between Cycle waves A and B. For instance wave B came incredibly close to retracing all of wave A's movement. The current top places the retracement at 98.087% which is an A:B relationship of 1.0195. Wave B was also nearly twice the size of Wave A at a relationship of 0.5531. I studied similar instances to attempt to determine what Cycle wave C could do. Of note was a pocket of duration data around 1855 trading hours and a bottom between 2988.29-3290.59. I further refined the data by examining the rise over run (R/R) relationships between waves A and B. The current relationship is 1.8432 meaning Cycle wave A moved faster than Cycle wave B. These results yielded duration pockets between 1801-2122 trading hours and a market bottom between 3161-3181. Based on the studied subset of data, common R/R relationships between waves A and waves C were further studied. The main areas of focus were relationships at 0.388, 0.68794, 0.75, 0.80, 1.00, and 1.20. If the number is greater than 1, Cycle wave A would have a larger R/R than Cycle wave C. Cycle wave A is typically larger, however, that would mean this next market drop would be very quick. My immediate chosen ratio was 0.388, however, this appears too slow. Stocks have been more highly volatile and have not generally dropped slowly over time. Cycle wave A's R/R of 0.97 was a quicker drop than Cycle wave B's 0.53. The index should drop below 3491, but likely over a longer term than Cycle wave A. Cycle wave B was nearly double the duration of Cycle wave A even though, wave A moved more on a points basis. Cycle wave A lastly just over 9 months, while B was around 14. I expect C to last 11-16 months. This next chart outlines the movement extension percentages from the first study, the potential pockets from the second study, while overlaying R/R endpoints on top. The major intersections are addressed with vertical bars aligning to their R/R ratioed lines. I thought 0.388 was too slow and this layout indicates ratio 0.6879 is likely too slow as well. The sweet spot is likely with a ratio between 0.80 and 1.00. I will place the bottom around January 2025 for now which is around 1832 trading hours long. This analysis will become more refined as we move forward with time. 2024 appears to be quite the down year for the market between the current military conflicts, shipping disruptions, companies gambling they can refinance their debt at a cheaper rate, incredibly high personal debt levels, and a likely Chinese reclamation of Taiwan. There are also elections in the United States bound to add uncertainty to the future. Things seem to subside by the first quarter of 2025 and the next push higher will likely be stronger and faster than those previously experienced so not all is lost. Protect the retirement accounts for a year and enjoy the future.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Quad Witching: Mark Your Calendar for 2024Quad-witching is a phenomenon unique to the stock and options markets, occurring four times a year. It captures a flurry of activity sparked by the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivatives contracts: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. The third Friday of March, June, September, and December marks these critical days in the trading calendar, bringing with them distinct opportunities and challenges for investors and traders alike. Quad Witching S&P 500 Index Price Drops 2023 March -1.1% June -0.37% September -1.22% December -0.1% Average Drop 0.7% The Basics of Quad Witching Quad Witching is a critical event for anyone engaged in the stock market due to its pronounced effects on market volatility. Understanding its mechanics, significance, and impact helps investors and traders navigate the complexities of financial markets. Definition of Quadruple Witching Quadruple Witching is a term used to describe the simultaneous expiration of four types of financial derivatives: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. This event happens every quarter, specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It poses distinct considerations for market participants. Significance of Quadruple Witching Dates It is important for those who are involved in the financial markets to mark the calendar for Quadruple Witching Dates. These days witness increased trading activity as investors and traders adjust or close out their derivative positions. This period of adjustment is a display of strategic decision-making as market participants act to manage their investments before contracts expire. Impact on Market Volatility During Quad Witching, there is a simultaneous expiration of derivative contracts that can lead to higher trading volume and market volatility. Traders and investors need to be aware of the potential fluctuations in prices resulting from the amplified trading activity, which can significantly impact the short-term valuation of securities.
SP:SPXEducation
by liberatedstocktrader
1
SPX500 - SHORT STRUCTURE IDEA (TARGET 4725)What's on the chart? 1) An old high that marked a strong year for 2023. 2) A rebound in a weekly FVG that earlier served as a bullish signal for prior trading sessions. 3) In the process of that rebound, a 4H bullish FVG was formed which will serve as our target area + fibs. 4) The 2023 high was broken. 5) IMPORTANT: the new high wasn't taken out. Hmmm.. suspicious. That to me is a sign of weakness from the bulls. 6) On this flop of bullish momentum, a bearish 4H FVG was formed. 7) Market structure shift with a low taken out. Do we expect a rebound? Well I don't know. I'm not here to claim that I predict the future like most twitter gurus will imply. But if it does, this is how I see the rest go down. 8) A rebound in the 4H FVG, this is crucial for a short setup because it would imply a lower high. Super important!! Price doesn't need to go that high though to find a short setup. We could just break our imaginary trendline and that's it. 9) The descent into the abyss of short profits (or liquidations lol).
FX:SPX500Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading