VXX (VIX ETF) hints of increasing volatilityThe VXX is the VIX ETF and tracking it gives an idea of the VIX from a unique perspective. In the weekly chart, for most of 2021, there was a building MACD bullish divergence.
Given the higher low and the rather full bullish candle on Friday, any continuation of this rally aligns price to the indicator. Inadvertently, the would be downside volatility in the equity markets to follow...
The VIX, via the VXX ETF, is suggesting a plausible spike in volatility in the coming weeks.
SNP
S&P500 don't look so good...The S&P500 futures do not look well at all...
Weekly chart has "hairy tops" that indicate failed rallies, and the candle body is engulfing last week's candle body, ending the week very close to the weekly low. Bearish momentum prevails clearly. supported by technicals below.
Daily chart has a clear 55EMA failure, a second failure no less. The technicals are just turning with the MACD turning bearish. When it starts being bearish, there should be no problem breaking below into the 4300 range will see target downside to 4140, at the lower end of the range.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 07 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 07 Week
Last week's ES saw price rejection at previous breakdown level
4573 and test of breakout 4411-4446.
Shall 4411-4446 support hold, shall look for long opportunity.
If market returns into rotation, strategy will then be to
short at upper boundary resistance and long at lower boundary
support.
Indecision on Daily/Weekly bar may cause whipsaw movement,
trade with care.
Weekly: Average volume up bar closing in middle = indecisiveness
Daily: Average volume bar closing in middle. It has a lower low
than previous bar, and closed higher and in the middle
= some strength, but indecisive still.
H4: High volume Upthrust bar, weakness will be confirmed if
next bar closes lower.
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800 4740
4629 4573 4520
4492 4411 4446
4318 4267
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Bitcoin Undecided and a Look at some Altcoins(0:40) #DXY #Dollar Index - dropping
(1:10) #VIX #Fear #Index - spiking
(2:30) #DJIA
(2:50) #SNP
(3:00) #Nasdaq
(3:10) #QQQ
(3:25) #BTC.D
(3:51) #EthUSD
(4:15) #BTCUSD - Bitcoin is still overall in bullish territory. A drop below our black ascending trendline would cause me to become bearish, if confirmed on the daily. This still has not occurred.
(6:22) #altcoins #agldusd #btrstusd #jasmyusd etc. - All altcoins are depending upon the big dawg at this point, #BTC
S&P500 due for bounce - dead cat or rocket?The week's worth of S&P500 action was exciting, confusing and has implications for the next couple of weeks...
The weekly chart shows the bounce off the weekly 55EMA with a nice long tail, likely a week or two of technical bounce to follow. The daily chart has a very bullish looking candle on Friday, where a long tail ends with good momentum to close at the top. While the weekly MACD is dropping off into the bearish territory, the daily MACD appears to be technically finding its way back to mean.
Overall, this has odd implications, one being a start of a real bounce/recovery to historical high (or higher) OR it is a dead cat bounce for further downside after checking in with the daily 55EMA (about 4500). It is opined that we should have a visit to the last low, near 4200, but the real question is when .
Meanwhile, stay nimble...
Some Indicators you can utilize to help evaluate this market(2:00) Dollar broke above a bull triangle
(2:43) SNP Chart - Gap fills on the 1hr/4hr
(5:36) Nasdaq and DOW gap fills
(6:20) Sell volume capitulation on the QQQ?
(7:38) VIX fear spike - 7 days in a row
(8:39) Bitcoin chart - do we have confirmation that the buyers are back?
(10:54) A new experience for me on the charts
(12:05) Huge resistance ahead for Bitcoin!
(12:40) Over 40% of short term hodlers with NUP!
(13:23) Could this be another V-shaped recovery?
(14:00) BTC dominance has hit resistance
(14:30) How to measure data
(15:26) VMC Cipher B indicators
(16:09) Previous Death Cross time frames and price action
(17:45) Will Feb. 13-14th be our final bearish moment?
(18:20) Some of the negatives that we still need to account for
(19:22) $35,837 is our line in the sand. Or is it?
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 24 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 24 Week
Last week rejection at 4573 offered great short opportunity.
Preference to short on retracement / when price returns to
test shakeout area - possible scenarios provided
Weekly: Ultra wide spread high volume down bar = strength
may be returning
Daily: High volume up down bar closing near low = weakness
H4: Very high volume down bar closing at low = concern of buying
into the down move
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800
4740 4629
4573 4520
4492 4411
4332 4267
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
All Indexes and Crypto Leaders have found good support!In this 5 minute update:
* I want to leave traders with a more optimistic perspective. In the last video update, I failed to point out all of the positive indicators that I am seeing in the market. I review all the support levels that have been found on the indexes and crypto leaders.
Bitcoin - Is $36,000 our target down?In this video:
* Further review of the current broader market price action and potential rollover
* How this data correlates with crypto and how it could give crypto some time to stay afloat or even de-couple from the broader markets
* Time frame of market rollover
* Is the DOW forming a Head and Shoulders pattern?
* A look at Bitcoin and Ethereum price action and where we might go from here
Stock Indexes have peaked. A slow roll-over has begun.In this video:
* Current price action of the dollar coinciding with that of the markets and an understanding that the Fed may raise interest rates soon, all indicate that the broader markets will begin to roll over and turn bearish.
* Cryptos may still have time to complete one more bullish cycle before the markets turns extremely bearish.
S&P500 OOPS...It appears that the S&P500 (futures, ES1!) decisively broke down a long time support that dates back to May 2020.
It is also below the 55EMA, and MACD with other technicals are downward biased, indicating a lower target than the recent lows.
Possible target of 4280 from now to end Feb.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 17 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 17 Week
Scenario1 4662 short, scenario3 4743 short, Scenario 4 bounce from
trend channel provided plenteous opportunities last week.
Will adopt a rotational play - execute trades only at boundary
4808 / 4740 / 4629 / 4573.
Concern:
- The uptrend channel has encountered structure failure => price did
not reach the supply line of channel = weakness
- Increase in bearish volume on the downward move = weakness
Weekly: Average volume down bar closing off low = no supply/strength
Daily: High volume up bar closing off high = supply present.
H4: UHV down bar closing off low followed by up bar = strength.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800
4740 4629
4573 4520
4492 4411
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
S&P500 BearishWeekly (MACD) indicator turned bearish... particularly with a Bearish Engulfing candlestiak pattern right at the top.
Daily Indicators are already bearish, while the price failed a breakout (of a range) and fell back in, suggesting a brreakdown on the opposing side. This week would test the daily 55EMA for sure; and perhaps a small bounce to the top of the range...
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 10 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 10 Week
Rejection at 4743 short worked well last week.
Short on retracement preferred
Weekly: Average volume down bar closing near low = weakness
Daily: Average volume down bar closing off low. Some demand is
present.
H4: Very high volume down bar followed by lower close bar = weakness
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800
4743 4716
4662 4520
4492 4411
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 03 WeekES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 03 Week
If 4743 is support, breakout of previous rotation is confirmed. Intraday long
preferred.
If rejection at 4743 market may test lower levels, intraday short preferred.
Weekly: Low volume up bar closing in middle = undecisive
Daily: Upthrust followed by down bar = weakness.
H4: Very high volume down bar, but no lower low forrmed, 4743 is now
temporary support.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800
4743 4712
4650 4606
4565 4492
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Stock Market Review - Underwhelmed - Still Bearish - No ChangeIn this video:
* We must review the stock market indexes and sentiment in order to accurately gauge our crypto space
* Overall, nothing has changed. Still bearish!
UPDATE: Apparently, TradingView is still having video issues. Subscribe to my substack below to view the video there or any of my other social media accounts.
- Stewdamus
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Dec 06 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Dec 06 Week
Down channel trade was good. Market recovered on Friday to close up on
high volume off its high (H4). Some support has returned. 4492 looked like
a strong support at the moment. If there is indeed acceptance, we may
have a temporary long opportunity. However do note market is still
within down channel, so take profit on your longs whenever possible
Weekly: Very high volume closing off low = strength
Daily: 4492 looks like a strong support. High volume down bar closing off
low = strength
H4: High volume up bar closing of high, supply still present.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4764 4740
4717 4651
4606 4564
4492 4411
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Leading Indicators are BURNTAs forewarned, the Leading Indicators were previously pointing to a burn out, and now half of the leads are burnt.
JNK and VALUG are bearish, as are TLT and VIX indicating bearishness.
IWM, TIPS, and DJT have failed any bullish indication, skewing towards bearishness.
The S&P500 futures are at support now... likely to break down, even for the beginning of a month. Overwhelmed by the "shock" of a new variant, perhaps it is time.
IMHO, Omicron is a precursor... it should be mild, but its existence is indicative of the next wave. So, not to be ignored, and especially not to be forgotten. This is like Nature's forewarning of 2022.
Stay safe!
Leading Indicators panel point to a burn outLooks like the S&P500 should be running out of steam soon, based on the panel of leading indicators which most are about turning.
JNK just about broke down and topped out a pattern.
Russell2000 and the broad market Value Line failed a breakout.
VIX and TLT are about to break out.
The ES futures weekly chart have indecisive candlesticks for the past two weeks.
While not a bear trend, a likely technical retracement due...
Heads up
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 15 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 15 Week
Short from 4674 was good, followed by spring from the demand line of the
uptrend channel.
Market rebound from demand line of channel back into the possibility to test 4712.
Weekly: Average volume down bar closing off high = weakness. Wait and see if
weakness will flow over to lower time frame.
Daily: Average volume up bar closing off high = possible weakness. Wait
for next bar to confirm.
H4: Climatic up bar followed by high volume up bar closing off high = Some
weakness expected.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4764 4733
4711 4674
4657 4613
4590 4551
4515 4472
4411 4381
4333 4267
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week. ES1!