Smcconcepts
DXY 4H HIGH SWEPTDue to DXY 4H high being swept and not breaking structure a weak low was created, as a result there is now liquidity to be taken at that weak low which will cause DXY to potentially move to the downside in order to mitigate an extreme demand zone. As a result if this happens we can expect currencies such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD to move to the upside.
EUR/USD APPEARS BULLISHWith the DXY temporarily bearish to facilitate a pullback on its 4H leg of price we can expect EUR/USD to be moving bullish Aswell as they are negatively correlated. We need to be vigilant and aware of the fact that supply zones lie ahead meaning that we will be open to sells as we approach those zones. The supply zones may end up causing 4H BoS or further bearish structure to merely mitigate extreme demand zone.
EUR/USD both bullish and bearishEUR/USD seemed to react with a very high amount of momentum to the downside. With such a high momentum move it appears demand zones may potentially fail and a break of structure on the 4H may be approaching. On the flipside 4H bullish structure may hold as lower time frame structures may align and give reason for us to go bullish. If we go bullish, we may go bullish to simply mitigate 4H internal supply zones or to form a new higher high and higher low continuing bullish 4H market structure.
USD/CAD to take daily highWith the 4H now having multiple breaks to the upside and us closing in on the daily high, it appears we may now be able to create a new higher low within the next few days. However, we need to keep in mind that we never actually mitigated a meaningful strong daily demand zone, so price may actually reverse and look for a deeper daily pullback mitigating the daily extreme before taking the daily weak high.
GBP/USD Daily Analysis 13/10/2023My long position was stopped out earlier today at a 0.5% risk setting after. I still currently believe that the market will turn bullish and take out the upside liquidity so I will analyse the market over the next week and look for a potential re-entry or I will look for downside continuation if I can see the set up there. Win some and Lose some but consistency is key.
GBP/USD Daily Analysis 12/10/2023My Long position was triggered, which lined up with my analysis. Unfortunately my short position was not triggered on the way down, the gap between the market movement and my short entry was very small (Marked out by the small circle between the wick and the red line), I will have to look into my analysis and reevaluate my entry strategy/level as I missed a few pips as the short would’ve hit take profit with minimal to no drawdown. I have also set an alert for my partial profits level for my running long position which is at the lowest point in an imbalance which was created on the way down to my entry.
GBP/USD Daily Analysis 11/10/2023Unfortunately my take profit zone on my previous trade was mitigated throughout the day, however I have altered my take profit to the next liquidity point which was an imbalance a few pips above and I have also set the previous, now mitigated, take profit zone (marked by the red line) as an area for a quick short entry to take as I believe price will bounce off of this level and down to the next low to take out the downside liquidity before travelling back up to align with my original analysis.
BXY Analysis 10/10/2023As you can see with the current state of the BXY market, it is currently in and upwards trend creating higher lows consistently marked by the circles on the closes of the wicks. The red rectangle marks out the area where price was operating below my entry price on GBP/USD and as you can see the arrows show the date range that buyers and sellers were actually successfully transacting below this price as seen by the open and closed candles in this range. The total time spent with buyers and sellers transacting below this range was 8 days and 8 hours and this is the lowest it has transacted in the last 7 months. This is why I have set my stop loss around this area as I do not believe that price will transact much lower than this due to the large wicks you see which represent buyers and sellers not able to find fair value and price bouncing away instead of solid closes due to buyers and sellers being unable to find a price they are both happy to transact at.
DXY Analysis 10/10/2023This is just my brief analysis of the Dollar Index (DXY) to support my idea that the GBP/USD market will push to the downside then retrace up to the next liquidity point. As you can see the DXY is making lower highs on its way down, creating points of liquidity to be taken as it moves. I believe these points will be taken, creating a move to the upside taking out the stop losses above before coming back down.
Please note - The DXY moves inverse to the GBP/USD market.
GBP/USD Analysis 10/10/2023I have located a long position that I would like to take in the GBP/USD Market where I will target the next liquidity high point after I believe there will be a move to the downside to take out lower stop losses before the main move the upside. I have noticed points of liquidity on the British Pound Index (BXY) and the Dollar Index (DXY) that support this theory. I have set my entry off of an order block to the downside which I believe will be filled and I have placed my stop 10 pips below that and I am looking at around a 1:5 RR on this trade with 0.5% risk on my demo account.
XAU/USD Daily Analysis 10/10/2023During today’s analysis there has not been much movement in the market, however the market is creating new liquidity points by forming higher lows (where stop losses will lie below them) and higher highs, which looks like an uptrend is forming. However I will be looking for a liquidity grab into the daily demand zone over the next few days before I will look to enter a long position into the next liquidity point.
Side note - I may potentially look for short positions as the liquidity is grabbed based on market movements and/or order blocks or other confluences.
CADJPY - High probability Shorting opportunity CADJPY makes a change of character at a previous supply area; followed by a double top at the same zone, signalling a possible change in trend direction. A short position at 109.390 with a stop loss order slightly above the zone at 109.500 and take profits at 107.500 would be a profitable trading opportunity.