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LOADING UP ON TNA TNA which is the Direxion Daily S&P Small Cap 3x leveraged is an ETF that I just came across. I usually trade TQQQ and SPXL while carrying a small position overnight in order to mitigate my risk from daily rebalancing of the leverage ETFs. TNA has run up under 980% since the COVID - 19 sell off and is approximately 40% above its pre - pandemic high. I have heard that small cap stocks will lead the charge up or down before there's a market turn in the S&P 500. I'm looking at two entry points for this ETF. My first entry point will be at $89.92 and my second position will at $71.32. Due to TNA being a leveraged ETF the goal is to take a small position relative to my account and potential day trade the TZA (the inverse) or TNA with a larger position. I am very bullish on the market and I am loving the pullback that we are experiencing. Based on past analysis, TNA hit a resistance and then pulled back towards a support at $71.32 before breaking through its resistance - and now support - at $89.92 creating a new resistance. The sell off from the resistance at $104.14 looks healthy but I am looking for a bounce off of $89.92 here. TNA is holding its 15 and 50 day EMA strongly after breaking below its 5 day EMA. I will cut my position and turn bearish on TNA if we break below the 50 day EMA. This is the first post that I have made and I am looking to create more whether my analysis is correct or wrong. Thank you in advance for any feedback that readers provide me with as I am looking to do this full time!
AMEX:TNA
by madisonsoun97
3
GHST / BUSD amazing base breakout. <50M market cap on BinanceGHST / BUSD pair taking off. This is an NFT project based on the AAVE defi protocal. Under 50 million market cap makes this an official GEM. Because small caps are EXTREMELY volatile, normal stop losses are not recommended. Keep this on your watchlist. Investing a small portion of portfolio which is already in 40% profit and looking to add more. Now is not a bad time, set Stop Loss below 1.1 which is about 14-15% from here (6:06 pm Sunday 2.14.21) Profit targets 100%+. This is a 50 million marketcap project, ideal target is 100 -150M plus marketcap before selling. Because you are taking large risk on the trade (15%), the reason to risk in small caps is for monster moves (50m - 200m for example, 3 - 4 x at least). BUSD is Binance USD, a binance issued stablecoin pegged to USD on the binance smart chain.
GLong
by EddieTradez
Nova Leap Health Corp (NLH)Executive Summary Nova Leap Health is a consolidator of an extremely fragmented space of home care and home health care agencies. Nova Leap buys them at ~5x EBITDA and subsequently improves EBITDA margin. As the company scales its operations, the operating leverage would lead to margin expansion. The stock price has an upside of ~100% in 1 year. Opportunity 1) Small Cap (50m) 2) Sell side has not discovered it yet 3) Flying under the radar Nova presently has a $2.1m cash pile and a long term debt of $2.7m, debt was $5.3M in August with a $2.7M cash pile Business Overview NLH is home care and home health care services company operating in Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Nova Scotia. NLH all entered into all these markets (except for Ohio) through M&A transactions. Home care covers such activities as: Dementia care Personal grooming like bathing or getting dressed Moving around: getting in and out of the bed/shower Medication reminders Errands like grocery shopping and picking up prescriptions Light housekeeping Meal preparation Home healthcare covers such activities as: Skilled nursing At-home physical therapy Pain Management Caring for wounds Prescription management Customer Value Proposition Home care and home healthcare enables senior citizens to stay in their homes even after they cannot live completely on their own. Homecare crates a buffer from when a senior citizen needs to move to a nursing facility COVID-19 Tailwind Senior citizens living at nursing facilities suffered greatly from COVID-19. There were instances where a big part of a nursing home’s population got infected by COVID-19. Second, many senior citizens got locked down at nursing facilities and were not able to see family members for very extended periods of time for safety reasons. Needless to say, that was a real hardship. Thus, I expect that both senior citizens and their families (e.g., children) would be trying to avoid or at least delay moving to a nursing facility as long as possible which would provide strong tailwinds for home care industry and Nova Leap. M&A Strategy 1. M&A Criteria Nova Leap has the following acquisition criteria: 1) U.S. and Canada geographic focus 2) Positive EBITDA with strong reputation/brand 3) Normally 5+ year history 4) Opportunities for operational synergies 5) $1M-$15M of Revenues Nova Leap is going after targets that are too small for private equity players and as a result faces limited competition. The space is very fragmented, and Nova Leap has many potential acquisition targets in front of it. M&A Playbook and Integration Nova Leap buys home care businesses that are primarily private pay. After that Nova Leap makes incremental changes at the acquired operations. First, Nova Leap implements price increases where it is appropriate. Second, Nova Leap reducea overtime because overtime destroys gross profit margin. Third, Nova Leap consolidates the back-office functions such as accounting. For example, instead of an accountant looking after one agency, such account working at Nova Leap HQ would be looking after 3 or 4 home care agencies. Fourth, better scheduling using scheduling software. Operating Philosophy CEO Chris Dobbin runs Nova Leap in a very decentralized fashion. Most locations’ leaders have lots of autonomy. HQ are responsible for setting up standards and back office / accounting. Chris Dobbin spends his time heavily on M&A and overseeing the agencies’ leaders. Unit Economics The key operating drivers are the number of client service hours and revenue per hour. Revenue per hour has been quite stable and is ~$25. Cost per hour has also been stable: ~$16.50 - $17.00. Thus, the profit per hour is ~$8.50 to $9. Four-Wall Economics and Four-Wall EBITDA “Four-wall EBITDA” is of course a misnomer because there are no tangible walls to speak of, but the concept still applies. I want to analyze profitability of field operations first and then overlay HQ expenses on top of that. The key issue that Nova Leap is facing today is its small size of field operations vs. HQ. However, with a few more acquisitions and de minimis growth in HQ expenses (see more on this below), the operating leverage would kick in and lead to a disproportionate increase in EBITDA. In 2019 segment EBITDA margin (e.g., before HQ costs) was 11.88%. However, in 1Q 2020 and 2Q 2020 it was 10.91% and 10.39% respectively due to the COVID-19 impact. Revenue run-rate (ex-COVID-19) is ~$5M per quarter or ~$20M per year. With ~12% segment EBITDA margin, NLH should be able to generate ~~$2.4M of segment EBITDA. With the EV of ~$19M, the EV/Segment EBITDA is ~7.85x. HQ Operations The HQ team based in Halifax is small and includes CEO, CFO, controller, and business development person. This is purely corporate function. The HQ also has 5 accountants. However, they work with field agencies. Nova Leap wants to do 4 to 6 M&A transactions a year (there was zero during COVID-19 pandemic so 2020 number would probably be lower than this target). Doing these M&A transactions will not require hiring any more HQ personnel. However, Nova Leap would probably need to hire an accountant for every 3-4 acquisitions (maybe 5). HQ expenses are ~$280K - $300K per quarter when there are no M&A transactions. Let’s call it $1.2M per year. Scaling What the numbers above is mean is that Nova Leap needs to get another $1M of EBITDA to show the strength of its operating model. That would probably require $5M of capital. I expect that it will be done with a very small dilution to existing shareholders. Valuation and Upside Potential As I alluded above, current headline multiple of EBITDA is not particularly attractive. However, with getting more scale and proving the model, I would not be surprised if Nova Leap trades at 12x – 14x EBIDA in 1 year could generate a 100% upside Risks M&A Integration M&A integration risks are inherent for any roll up / consolidation strategy and NLH is not exception. 2. Leverage NLH has ~$2.0M of debt which is a lot given its EBITDA today. If NLH does not grow its EBITDA, its leverage can become an issue. Catalysts 1. Continuous M&A 2. Operating leverage showing up as the company continues to scale its operations.
TSXV:NLHLong
by JabroniCapital
1
Verasity $VRA clear bullish divergence on the dailyVRA / BTC is showing very clear bullish divergence on the 1d chart, indicating that we are very close to the bottom here. VRA tends to go very parabolic during pumps, one time pumping from 4 sats to 19 sats in less than two weeks! When it reverses again it will likely blow everyone away this time, and possibly come back to the 10 - 12 sats range before you know it. Fundamentally VRA is a great project with a hard working team and a long-term vision. There are many huge things upcoming this quarter, including new exchange listings, partnerships and things like in-game advertising and in-game rewards which would make VRA unique in the crypto space. And that while it only has a $2m marketcap! With the current state of the market, not only can we expect VRA to recover its losses soon, but it may actually end up going on a monster bullrun towards 40 - 50 sats this year which is an incredible 30x move from current rockbottom prices. Don't miss out on this little gem! Entry range is 1.3 - 1.5 sats .
Long
by jariii
1