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Silver Past & Present Bull Run/Bear Market Analysis. Is RSI Key?This month's observations and discussion points are as follows: + Looking at the RSI, 200 MA and candles, it would not be unreasonable to believe there is more down time ahead. + Buying when the RSI is oversold on the monthly chart is not a bad good idea (not financial advice) as after the ONLY two previous times, bull runs have followed. Crunching the Data Bull Run & Bear Market A vs B Bull Run A >>> Dec 1971 ~ Jan 1980 (8 years & 1 month) Bear Market A>>> Feb 1980 ~ Feb 1991 (11 years) Bull Run B>>> Mar 1991 ~ Apr 2011 (20 years & 1 month) Bear Market B>>> May 2011 ~ Sep 2018... (7 years & 4 months...) Bull Run A>>> $1.39 ~ $38.20 (x27.48) Bear Market A>>> $35.12 ~ $3.62 (-89.70%) Bull Run B>>> $3.75 ~ $49.71 (x13.26) Bear Market B>>> $48.15 ~ $14.16...(-70.60%...) Notes: Bull Run A was x2.07 larger in price than Bull Run B. Notes: Bear Market A has so far decreased 19.10% more than the current Bear Market B. Final Calculation & Summary Bull Run A was x2.07 larger than Bull Run B, so it's logical to expect Bear Market A to also be x2.07 longer than Bear Market B. 89.70% / 2.07 = 43.33% Following this assumption, the current bear market needs to go 43.33% down from Bull Run A's ATH and at this point should become oversold on the monthly RSI and ready to begin a new bull run. It's currently already down 70.60% from the ATH of Bull Run B so I GUESS ALL OF THIS RESEARCH WAS A COLOSSAL WASTE OF TIME! I guess every bull run is different and shouldn't be compared?
FX:XAGUSDLong
by fifty2kph
2
SILVER TO GO LONG OVER THE YEARS!No long explanation here, just thought i'd do a quick share on markets I am watching to get in on for the long haul. If you read most of my charts in the past 3 weeks, you should know how I trade. Feel free to use this as your guideline. This is long-term trade so atleast a year upwards before you look into collecting your winnings. I don't really suggest where to get out, you decide for yourself, but if you want my suggestion on where to consider an exit then feel free to ask. Wait to bottom out and buy in at trend reversal to the bull side at below suggestions; 1st/top yellow line sitting at 13.723 2nd/bottom yellow line sitting at 9.683 DISCLAIMER! I suggest working on the monthly view (1M) timeframe, using the MACD , Stoch RSI and CM_Ultimate_MA__MTF_V2 (combo of multiple indicators created by someone and accessible if you have pro account on tradingview). Do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders. All comments and questions welcome, thanks.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Dani0
2
Silver critical point - will show future direction early MondayI have 3 main scenarios and the good news is that they will reveal themselves very early next week. Scenario 1. The current correction is an abc, in which wave c has already extended slightly over 1:1 (Pt. 2). This would point to the price facing very strong resistance at its current level and failing to break higher. If price fails to break above $15.55 and also travels below the green box, this would strongly support the view that we are about to start wave (5) down to the mid $14s (or more). Scenario 2. The abc as I have tentatively named it, is in fact wave 1, 2, and 3 of a 5 wave move up. If this is the case, then we will also know very soon. If the price breaks above the double top formed on late friday and continues higher, this view will become more plausible - and Pt 1 a plausible short-term target. If the retracement that follows also fails to travel below the green box (Pt. 3) then this view will be futher supported (I know the wave 1 (if it is wave 1) top should not be breached by wave 4, however, in highly leveraged markets this can be accepted). Scenario 3. This would be that we have seen waves 1, 2, and 3 of wave (A) up of a larger ABC correction that should reach up to and possibly beyond towards the lower trend-line (but not above $16.20 (the wave (1) extreme before forming wave (5) down. I was stopped out for a small loss (my stop was too close) shorting the 1:1 wave 1 / a extension. But I will look to take a larger position shortly after the markets open again Monday - and I suspect that position will be a short one, however, I will wait for a wave 1 down to form first. If we continue down to break below $15.347 and the swing low at $15.185 I will add to my short targeting $14.60 for a 1.618 fix extension fo wave (1). Thanks for reading my post. Good luck everyone.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by flyinkiwi10
1
Gold/Silver Ratio - Silver about to appreciate significantlyVery interessting stuff. It look like silver is about to continue wave C down as it is completing wave 2 in a 5 wave down-move. Both commodities are declining of late, although silver would appear to be closer to its support (my published TA gold has the potential to decline to ~$5 to 600 over the next few years) while gold may have only retraced partially from ts 2011 highs. The wedge formation in silver is likely an ending fifth wave diagonal that has broken downwards, after the impulse move down (either possibly already complete or maybe one more wave down to $14.60 to come (it depends on which source you look at)) silver looks set to then form the basis of an impulse wave up. In the scenario outlined in the chart (simple ABC correction with a 1:1 extension), purchasing silver would improve your gold purchasing power by 20%. If however, wave C down extends to 1.618 (like it did in 2011) this would increase your gold purchasing power by 45% in comparison to today. Personally, if gold enters a 2-4 year bear market, I wouldn't really want to buy it until this period has ended or neared its end. I find this interesting more because I am bullish on silver and this is just another piece to the puzzle. Happy trading. This is 100% technical Analysis (Elliot Wave with some fibonacci) and no fundamental analysis has been conducted. This analysis is published solely to further my own education.
TVC:GOLDSILVER
by flyinkiwi10
Why Silver Will Outperform Gold 400% The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold For most of mankind throughout most of history, silver has been the much more important monetary metal, familiar as the metal of daily commerce. Gold was used only for very, very large payments, which most people make only rarely, if ever. Both silver and gold are monetary metals, i.e., they both benefit from monetary demand. (Monetary demand is also called “investment” demand. It is demand for silver as silver, and as an ingredient making something.) Most analysts miss silver’s monetary demand because they focus on silver’s use in industry. Certainly, since silver was politically demonetized beginning in the mid 1870s a vast amount of purely monetary demand disappeared. Today, most silver is used in fabrication, roughly split three ways among silverware and jewellery, photographic, and other industrial uses. But when confidence in central bank issued fiat money begins to fade, when fear strikes investors’ hearts, they run not only to gold, but also to silver. Especially in America.
TVC:SILVER
by TheWolfOfBinance
SILVER BREAK OUT Silver is getting ready to break out of the pattern. I am bullish on COMMODITIES GOLD,SILVER etc. with all these QE and crazy money supply inflation would be inevitable to occur in next few years. Liquidity will be taken out from the market with int.rates and we are entering in the late phase of the economic cycle. Expecting to see huge rally in the price of Gold, Silver as safe heavens. USD weakening, JPY strengthens will see what will be the bride future. Good Luck.
TVC:SILVERLong
by TG_Advisory