Signals
XauUsd- New leg down towards 2610 support?In my Friday analysis, I highlighted that while the 2660-2665 zone is a technical support, it is too obvious and very likely to fall.
This prediction came true as the week closed with Gold trading below this level, forming a strongly bearish daily candle.
Additionally, a Pin Bar from the 2700+ resistance zone appeared on the weekly chart, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
During the Asian session last night, the price tested the ascending trendline, and as of now, Gold is trading at 2656, hinting at a potential rebound following the 800-pip drop from its recent peak.
Looking ahead, if a deeper rebound occurs, the 2680 zone will be a key level for bears to monitor. This area presents an ideal shorting opportunity given its favorable risk-to-reward setup.
At the moment, I’m out of the market, waiting to sell into signs of weakness, with 2610 support as my target.
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
Tia’s Next Move: Opportunity Below $6?Tia/USDT has been lagging recently, and while other altcoins surged strongly after Trump’s election, Tia only recently managed to break above a key resistance level at $6.
After reaching the recent high, the price corrected and is now back at the previous resistance level, which has turned into support.
I expect this support to hold, and if it does, we could see a new upward leg for Tia.
The immediate resistance is in the $7.3–$7.5 zone, and a breakout above this level could pave the way for further gains, potentially reaching the next key resistance levels at $9 or even $12.
Buying below $6 could offer a solid entry point with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
DOW JONES 13-year pattern that never failed eyes $48000.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us the best bullish break-out signal exactly 1 year ago (December 13 2023, see chart below), as our buy entry at 36577 hit our 42900 long-term Target last October:
At that time we made a clear point why that rally 'shouldn't surprise you' and it is because of this pattern's consistency for so many years. This 1W time-frame chart shows the cyclical behavior of the index, which peaks (Sine Wave top), then pulls back and starts forming a Rising Wedge (Sine Wave bottom) and when it breaks above the Rising Wedge, is where it flashed the bullish break-out signal we got a year ago.
As you can see it then starts a gradual rise on the BB20 and completes the Cycle again (Sine Wave top) after roughly a +47% rally. The title mentions that this pattern 'never failed', practically it only broke during the COVID flash crash, which was a non-technical event than occurs once every 100 years. As you can see even the 1W MACD sequences between the cyclical patterns are identical.
As a result, our Target towards the Sine Wave peak is 48000. If this is achieved in Q2 2025, based on Dow's current Channel Up (dashed), then we expect the index to remain on those high levels but turn more neutral sideways towards the end of 2025 and then eventual start of the new Bear Phase.
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TESLA Every pull-back is a buy opportunity. Is $1000 possible?It was almost 6 months ago (June 26, see chart below) when we made a seemingly unrealistic bullish call on Tesla (TSLA) for the time being, setting $400 as our first Target:
In fact, it was 8 months ago (April 15, see chart below) when we called Tesla's exact bottom, expecting its own 'Meta recovery moment' following lay offs of more than 10% of staff:
Obviously, you can say that you couldn't see that coming. Tesla not only broke above $400 but is about to hit the next psychological level of $500. In order to make better sense of this logarithmic rise and display it in a more effective way to you, we have borrowed some of our Bitcoin analysis tools: the Pi Cycle and the Mayer Multiple Bands.
What you see on this chart, are the Pi Cycle trend-lines 1 (orange) and 2 (green), which have been key Resistance and Support levels respectively during the majority of Tesla's historic run, combined with the MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) and MMB SD3 below (black trend-line), which have historically been the extreme Resistance and Support levels respectively. In the middle of all these is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which during the Parabolic Rally phases (like the one we are currently on), is Tesla's major Support.
All the above are applied on Tesla's key historic pattern: a Channel Up, defined by its middle Fibonacci retracement levels (0.618, 0.5, 0.382) and its extremes, the -0.382 Fib (caught the June 2019 market bottom) and the 1.382 Fib (caught the February 2014, February 2021 and November 2021 market tops).
At the moment the price just broke above Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) and hit the 0.618 Fib. While this is a strong short-term Resistance cluster and may force some investors to take profits, every such pull-back should technically be a buy opportunity from now on, as the market as already started its Parabolic Rally phase.
As you can see both previous Parabolic Rally phases hit the 1.382 Fib extension extreme, trading on the way up considerably above the 1W MA50 and with the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) as its loose Support.
Even though another test of that extreme would take the stock to incredibly high capitalization levels and cannot be justified without an applicable expansion of their product lines (from electric vehicles to A.I. and robotics), a $700 - $1000 target range by the end of 2025, doesn't seem so unrealistic if those products hit the market with real world applications.
In any case, every break above the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) has historically started Tesla's largest rallies (exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash, which was quickly recovered), so plan your strategy accordingly.
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USDJPY → Price Struggles at Resistance, Eyes a PullbackHello, my wonderful friends of Ben!
Recently, USDJPY has been struggling to maintain its peak around the 154.00 USD level. The bullish momentum of USDJPY has been hindered by several factors, including the ongoing Fed interest rate meeting.
Fundamentally, today is a critical day for the market. At 19:00 GMT, the Fed’s interest rate meeting, with a 93% probability of a 0.25% rate cut decision, will take place. This will make the dollar less attractive. If the dollar starts to adjust downward, it will affect the corresponding currency pairs. However, I do not rule out the possibility that, amidst high volatility, the price could form a retest of the resistance level and a false breakout.
Personally, Ben expects the price to consolidate below the resistance area around 155.00, with corrective pressure against the trend dominating in the near future. The current support level is around 152.01. If this level is breached, it could lead USDJPY to a deeper decline, potentially reaching 149.37.
Best regards,
Bentradegold!
BITCOIN Next top is going to surprise you but it SHOULDN'T !!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yet another benchmark, the psychological level of $100k. The market cap is growing and many claim that it can't keep rising as the capitalization would be at unrealistic levels. For one capital inflows seem to be very comfortable right now with BTC investments and there are still billions waiting at the side for the right investment in 2025.
Fundamentals aside, Bitcoin's historic patterns and price action gives us even more reasons to expect (much) higher prices and a Cycle Top that could surprise many.
** Fibonacci Channel Up **
First of all, we've plotted a Channel Up starting from BTC's first Bear Cycle and displayed the Fibonacci retracement levels on it. As you can see, those fit perfectly and catch each Cycle's tops and bottoms very accurately:
1) June 2011 Top on the 0.618 Fib. November 2011 Bottom on the 0.0 Fib.
2) December 2013 Top on the 1.0 Fib. August 17 2015 Bottom on the 0.382 Fib.
3) December 2017 Top on the 1.0 Fib. December 2018 bottom on the 0.5 Fib.
4) April 2021 Top on the 0.786 Fib. November 2022 bottom on the 0.236 Fib.
** Pi Cycle and MM Bands **
Then we have applied the Pi Cycle trend-lines 1 (orange) and 2 (green), which are key trend Resistance and Support levels respectively, combined with the MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) and MMB SD3 below (black trend-line), which are also historically almost the absolute Resistance and Support levels respectively. In the middle of all these is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which during the Parabolic Rally phases (like the one we are currently on), is Bitcoin's main upward force.
** Covering at least 4 Fib ranges **
As you can see, all Cycles broke above at least the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) before making a Top. The first two Cycles even hit the MMB SD3 above (red). Also each Cycle has a proportional Fibonacci Channel level range, covering at least 4 Fib bands (as described above). Cycle 1 covered Fibs 0.618, 0.5, 0.382, 0.236 and 0.0. Cycle 2 covered Fibs 1.0, 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382. Cycle 3 also covered Fibs 1.0, 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382. Cycle 4 covered Fibs 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382, 0.236.
** Surprise Top **
The MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) is now below Fib 0.618 and it is less likely for BTC to hit it since Cycle 3 didn't. As a result, it is possible that the next Top will be on Fib 0.5 at best (maximum). If that is succeeded towards the end of 2025, and assuming that the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) breaks by then as it always has on every previous Cycle, that gives us a target range for the next Cycle Top within $250k - $350k!
Do you still think that's unrealistic? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Gold Market Update: Indecision Dominates Ahead of FEDYesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD broke below the key confluence support at 2645.
However, the drop lacked meaningful follow-through. After reaching a local low at 2633, the price reversed and closed right at the confluence level.
As of now, gold remains virtually unchanged from Friday's close. Monday saw a spike up to 2665, while yesterday marked a dip to 2633, reflecting market indecision.
Technical Perspective:
At the time of writing, gold is trading below this critical level, currently at 2643. If the break below support proves genuine, bears will likely target the 2610-2615 zone, as highlighted in my previous analyses.
Conversely, if the price climbs back above 2655, the recent dip would be considered a false breakout, shifting the focus to the upside, with the 2680 zone as the next target.
FED's Influence:
The market awaits clarity from the Federal Reserve’s announcement and press conference today, which could provide direction for gold in the coming days.
DXY Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 106.958.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 109.013 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GOLD Will Grow! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 45m
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 2,643.843.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 2,651.719.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Lingrid | BNBUSDT Contraction-Expansion Pattern. Potential Long The price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target. BINANCE:BNBUSDT is currently moving sideways following the surge at the beginning of December. The lower highs and higher lows indicates that the price action is narrowing, suggesting a potential triangle pattern. This pattern is typically viewed as a trend continuation signal. The market is likely to continue its sideways movement, generating liquidity above and below the triangle formation, which could lead to a contraction-expansion scenario. I expect the price to dip below the psychological level of 700 before potentially bouncing off the channel border if bullish momentum builds after testing this support level. My goal is resistance zone around 760
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
EURJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for EURJPY.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 161.281.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 159.582 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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US30 Will Go Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for US30.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 43,616.98.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 43,408.72 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GOLD is neutral on the most important event day of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery decreased under pressure from the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates increased sharply. Strong US retail sales data caused gold prices to plummet to a week low of 2,633 USD/ounce yesterday trading day. Today (Wednesday), markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year.
About economic data
US retail sales rose more than expected in November, fueling rising inflation data in recent months and suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January next year.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in November, the highest growth rate since September and above the 0.6% gain. expected.
Retail sales data for the first two months of the year was revised upward and October data was revised from a monthly increase of 0.4% to 0.5%.
The most important event this trading week
On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Investors will need to pay close attention to the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the meeting to further assess future policy trends.
The Fed's updated economic forecasts and Dotplot charts are also the focus of market attention as they could reshape expectations about the trajectory of interest rates in 2025 and 2026.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. What Powell "breathes" out will create big fluctuations in the market.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Additionally, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025.
So the question is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market expects. Because of Trump's victory, the market will have to reassess the Fed's interest rate expectations, and may need to be more cautious about further interest rate cuts at this time.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold attempted to recover after testing the 0.618% Fibonacci level, a position that readers noticed in the previous issue.
Temporarily, the trend of gold prices is noticed by the price channel, however the position is quite neutral with price activity around EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index also sticking around 50.
Perhaps, the technical chart needs a sudden impact to create a trend, and considering the current position, gold could increase in price if it breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level then the target level is about 2,676USD In the short term, more than $2,693.
On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement support level, it could open a new bearish cycle with price activity returning to the price channel and the target then being around 2,591USD in the medium term.
During the day, the technical trend is neutral and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,603 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2684
→Take Profit 1 2673
↨
→Take Profit 2 2668
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2617
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633