GBPCAD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPCAD.
Time Frame: 45m
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.783.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.780 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Signals
GBPJPY Will Grow! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPJPY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 190.691.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 191.152 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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XAUUSD Still a great long-term buy opportunity targeting +$3000Gold (XAUUSD) has been following our Bull Cycle projection since 4 months back (August 05, see chart below) having risen an incredible +15%, from 2424 to almost 2800:
As you can see by the chart we constructed back then, despite the recent correction in November, the yellow metal is still a buy opportunity as this was only a technical pull-back based on our Bear - Bull Cycle model.
We have first come up with this technical pattern on April 04 2024 and the basis was the similarities (so far) of the July 2016 - August 2020 Bear-to-Bull Cycle with the Bear Cycle that followed the August 2020 Top and so far the current Bull Cycle.
As you can see, once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) turned to a Support at the end of the Bear Cycle, it held up until the Bull Cycle's Top and every pull-back was a buy opportunity. More specifically, the current November correction looks very similar to the COVID flash crash on March 2020 that touched the 1W MA50 and immediately rebounded.
The key pattern here lies on the 1W RSI. As you see, once that broke above the 70.00 overbought barrier, while Gold was on the Bull Cycle's Channel Up, it started to decline inside a Channel Down. That technical Bearish Divergence (RSI Channel Down against Gold's Channel Up) affected the price on the 3rd top (Lower High), which was the Cycle's peak.
Right now it appears that the 1W RSI has (or is near) bottomed and is staring that final Bullish Leg to the Lower High that will form Gold's new Bull Cycle Top. Technically this should be after April 2025 and if it is formed again upon the completion of a +85.42% rally from the Bear Cycle's first bottom and at most the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, then we are still expecting a $3100 target.
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S&P500 This Inflation Cheatsheet shows no correction in 2025.This is a chart we first posted almost 4 months ago (August 14, see chart below) at the time of a CPI date release, where we viewed the S&P500 index (SPX) against Inflation (red trend-line) and calling for an immediate buy:
** The 1W MA50 as the ultimate Support **
Well the price jumped +11% since then from 5440 to over 6000. The first principle of this chart is that as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, investors should stay bullish. This is because all previous multi-year rallies since August 2011 that started within a Channel Up, ended upon a 1W candle close below the 1W MA50 and transitioned into a Megaphone pattern for the new Bear Phase.
** Declining Inflation fueling stocks **
Right now we are still on a declining Inflation trend, very similar to early 2014 (ellipse shape on Inflation), while the 1W RSI of SPX is declining inside a Channel Down. This is a Bearish Divergence, which during all previous SPX Channel Up patterns, didn't make the index top until the RSI broke below its 41.50 Support (notable exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash which was a one in 100 years Black Swan event).
** SPX Target and timing **
As a result, while the 1W RSI trades within its Channel Down and above 41.50 and all price candles close above the 1W MA50, we expect the index to extend the multi-year uptrend to 6900, which would represent a +95.84% rise from the October 2022 bottom, similar to the February 2015 High. Notice that the December 2021 top was also of a similar magnitude (+103%).
As far as timing is concerned, we have calculated a model based on the 1W RSI top and the start of its Channel Down. As you see at that point, SPX always makes a medium-term pull-back (red Arc). This tends to be within the 0.382 - 0.618 time Fibonacci levels and on the 2011 - 2014 Bull Cycle, that was within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib zone. As a result, applying this principle on the current Bull Cycle, the trend is now just 2 months past the 0.618 time Fib and we can expect a Cycle Top around December 2025.
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Oil focus on EIA data and OPEC+ meetingTVC:USOIL increased slightly during the Asian trading session on Monday (December 2), trading around 68.30 USD/barrel. Market volatility has continued to decrease and we need to wait for new changes in fundamental factors to shape the short-term trend.
This week we will focus on EIA inventory data and the OPEC+ meeting. At the same time, this week will release US non-farm data. If non-farm data continues to strengthen, it will continue to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which will be detrimental to rising oil prices.
Last week, as the geopolitical situation eased, pressure on the supply side eased and the market is now expecting that this OPEC+ meeting is expected to be postponed and increased production will support oil prices.
On the geopolitical side, there are no significant new points. Lebanon's official news agency said on Friday that four Israeli tanks had entered Lebanese border villages. The ceasefire, which took effect last Wednesday, has reduced oil's hedging premium and sent oil prices tumbling despite accusations of ceasefire violations between the two sides.
Although there are still many potential risks, the conflict in the Middle East has not disrupted oil supplies and oil supplies are expected to be more abundant in 2025. The International Energy Agency believes that there is a surplus of supply. is expected to exceed 1 million barrels/day, equivalent to more than 1% of global production.
OPEC+ is expected to decide to continue extending production cuts at the upcoming meeting. With stagnant demand and oversupply, OPEC will face an uphill battle if it wants to push up oil prices.
On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL The main long-term trend is still down with the price channel as the main trend, pressure from EMA21 and horizontal resistance levels around the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point sent to readers in previous publications. .
In the short term, WTI crude oil has enough room to continue falling with a target of around 66.44USD in the short term, more than 65.28USD.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is also maintaining activity below or around the 50 level, which is considered a bearish signal with the target being the oversold area.
As long as WTI crude oil remains at EMA21, it still has a bearish short-term technical outlook, and the trend from the price channel continues to trend in the long term.
In the current daily chart, WTI crude oil has a downward trend with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD
Resistance: 69.51 – 70.54USD
EurUsd- Buy under 1.05
In last week's analysis, I mentioned that EUR/USD could reverse to the upside, with the 1.0330 zone likely marking a short-term bottom.
As anticipated, the pair has climbed back above the 1.05 support level, indicating a false breakout. I still expect this correction to extend further, with the pair potentially reaching the 1.0670 resistance level.
In conclusion, any dips below 1.05 should be seen as buying opportunities, targeting the aforementioned resistance level.
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Market AnalysisOANDA:XAUUSD has been in a consolidating phase following a bearish impulse leg that occurred on Monday. The November candle closed with bearish momentum but landed right at the 50% of the monthly candle range, having taken liquidity below the October low while respecting the critical 2650 price level.
On the weekly timeframe, the market has been oscillating within a range between 2700 and 2600 for the past three weeks. On the daily timeframe, price action remains sideways, and it appears that the market might be forming a triangle pattern, generating liquidity while showing both lower highs and higher lows.
On the 4H timeframe, there is also the formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, suggesting a potential reversal, but the pattern is not perfect. If the market manages to bounce off the 2600 support level, we could see a move back up toward the 2700 levels. Conversely, if the market fails to hold above the 2600 level, it may drop to the 2580 level. Overall, I expect the market continue moving sideways.
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BITCOIN $150k doesn't seem so unrealistic now, does it?Almost 4 months ago (August 14, see chart below), we made a bold prediction of a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) target at $150000 by early 2025, while the price was still at $60k:
This was received with a lot of skepticism at the time but with the price now almost on the $100k psychological barrier, the idea looks more and more realistic. It is time to revisit this chart and made some slight modifications based on the price action that was followed.
The price is now off the 0.786 - 1.0 Fibonacci range where it consolidated from March 2024 until October 2024. The enormous rise/ break-out is attributed of course to a large extent on the U.S. elections and the euphoria that followed. We are only 1 month outside this range and the price is already much higher.
Last month's candle is very similar to November 2020 and May 2017. In comparison, that was when the most aggressive (parabolic) rallies of those Bull Cycles started. In 2017 from May to December, it was on a 71.5° angle. On the next Cycle from November 2020 to April 2021, it was on a 68.5° angle, i.e. 3° lower. If that's a progression by any means, then we can assume that the 2024 - 2025 parabolic rally could be on a 65.5° angle (-3° from the previous Cycle). That gives a potential target of $300k as early as May 2025, assuming we could have a Double Top Cycle as in 2021.
In any case, it will be interesting to see if the current Cycle also makes a blow-off top (like the last two) outside/ above the Channel Up that started back on the December 2013 High. Unrealistic as it may seem now, the $150k Target is very plausible technically as it is just below the top of that multi-year Channel Up. If the $300k blow-off top (red Arcs) comes, then all the better, but a long-term investor may consider to start taking profits while the price is inside the Channel Up and starts being cautious once we break above it in the red Arcs.
So what do you think? Do you view $150k as technically realistic as this pattern indicates? And if so, can Bitcoin even make a blow-off top near $300k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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XAUUSDHere is our quick view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a quick overview on the pair.
XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2630s.
If we break our KL (Key Level) 2624 , we could revisit 2604 and our target 2590 . Safe sell entries would be at the break of the KL 2624 . Be careful of possible pullbacks to the upside and breaks of 2640 .
Personal opinion:
XAUUSD has tried to break below 2624 several times last week but failed to do so. A clear break below 2624 would confirm the direction and based on that we could take advantage of the sells on gold and potentially hit our 2590 target.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD breaking below 2624 would confirm sells.
- Breaks below 2604 would result in sells, down to 2590 would result in even lower prices.
- Breaks above 2640 could confirm buys.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
Bitcoin- Very risky sell, or wait to buy at 85kLast week, Bitcoin came tantalizingly close to the significant milestone of $100,000 but fell just shy of breaching it. After this near miss, the cryptocurrency experienced a minor correction. Yesterday, Bitcoin tested the $100,000 level once again, only to retreat once more, indicating a persistent struggle to decisively break through this psychological barrier.
Like many traders, I am anticipating a more substantial correction in the near term. One potential strategy could involve selling around the $97,000 level, assuming Bitcoin retraces upward before a deeper pullback.
However, this is undeniably a high-risk trade for two reasons.
First, selling at this level goes against the prevailing bullish trend.
Second, with so many market participants eyeing a correction, there’s a risk that the anticipated move might not play out as expected.
A safer and potentially more rewarding approach could be to wait for a more pronounced correction, targeting a buy around the $85,000 level.
This strategy would align with expectations of a continuation of the broader upward trend, with Bitcoin eventually breaking past $100,000.
If the correction materializes, this level might offer a solid entry point to capitalize on the next leg of the rally.
Silver- Could it drop to 28?In my previous analysis of silver, I mentioned the potential for prices to drop below the significant $30 level. This scenario unfolded as expected, with prices dipping to $29.66 before reversing and once again hovering around the $30 mark. This area continues to act as a pivotal point for market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the outlook remains bearish as long as the $31.20 resistance level holds. This level serves as a key threshold, and until it is breached, the strategy should focus on selling into rallies.
A decisive break below the $30 level could pave the way for a move toward the next major support around $28. Such a development would align with my broader bearish view when it comes to precious metals
Watching for 93.5K supportMorning folks,
Last time we've taken a pause, because of Holiday and some uncertainty as market could form three different patterns. Now the amount of candidates is reduced, so, we could speak more specifically.
In fact, minor upside action that has happened last week, increase chances for upside butterfly. But, since action is relatively slow, we prefer to use lowest Fib support to consider position taking. 93.5K looks to be OK for this. Besides, this is trend line of broken triangle.
Invalidation point of this scenario is lows at 90.5K level. So, not too big risk. If BTC breaks it - we get deeper downside action of a larger scale. In fact, this will erase the butterfly. Upside target is the same 102K.
Gold --> Interest in this metal is growingOANDA:XAUUSD On the basis of support from the dollar correction and the local maximum update. The liquidity is decreasing and Friday in the US also plays an important role in the market...
On H1, gold holds within the boundaries of a local bullish channel on the basis of a weak dollar, mainly due to the inflation regime... In addition, the dovish sentiment from the Fed regarding interest rate policies continues to support gold prices, however, this is not a topic of interest at the moment.
On the other hand, buyers' attention is shifting to the policies of the new US administration, which may impact the economies, causing central banks to increase their gold reserves. This may spur a sharp increase in central banks' gold trading.
So, since we have a bullish run, an ascending channel and strong fundamentals, in this case, it is reasonable to consider buying only, which can only be done from around the support area (FVG) and a breakout of the resistance level. The expected gold price increase is 2678 and 2694 is getting closer :)
Lingrid | BITCOIN Potential CONTINUATION Pattern AheadBINANCE:BTCUSDT November candle closed a very bullish, indicating strong momentum. Typically, after such moves, markets tend to consolidate above or below key levels before making a breakout. Currently, the market is moving sideways just below the significant psychological level of 100,000. Given this context, it is possible that the market may form a pullback toward one-third of the range of the previous monthly candle. This pullback could be healthy for the trend, allowing for a more sustainable upward movement afterward. Additionally, the price action could potentially create a trend continuation pattern, such as a triangle. If this pattern develops, it may suggest that the market is preparing for a further bullish movement after the correction. I expect that this month may primarily be characterized by this corrective phase, setting the stage for higher price levels afterward. My goal is resistance zone around 106,000
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Gold Price Analysis: Bearish Flag Forming Amid Choppy RecoveryAfter Monday's significant drop, the price of gold began a correction yesterday, reaching my first resistance zone at 2640 before resuming its decline.
However, gold found support around 2620 and started recovering again. The price action now appears to be forming a bearish continuation flag, suggesting that the next major move could be another downturn.
In the meantime, gold may continue to rise in a choppy fashion toward the next key level at 2660.
My strategy is to sell rallies near this zone, targeting a drop to 2590 while monitoring the newly established support at 2620.
GBPUSD: Time to Buy?! 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD has a perfect potential to move up after
a confirmed breakout of a minor daily resistance.
After a retest of a broken structure, the price formed a double bottom on that
and violated its neckline with a strong bullish imbalance.
The price may reach 1.2732 level soon.
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UsdJpy could drop 1000 pipsIn my previous post about USD/JPY, I highlighted the potential for JPY strengthening due to repatriation, referencing similar trends observed last year and usually in December
After reaching a high near 157, USD/JPY began to decline and is now testing the critical 150 level. At this point, a technical rebound is possible, but I view it as a selling opportunity. My belief is that repatriation is still in its early stages, and JPY has significant potential for further appreciation.
The 153-154 zone appears to be an ideal area to look for selling opportunities. With a stop placed above the recent high and a target near the 141 support level, a 1:4 risk-to-reward ratio could potentially be achieved.
Traps Of Technical Analysis: Navigating The Pitfalls For SuccessTechnical and fundamental analyses are cornerstones for understanding how financial markets operate. While technical analysis focuses heavily on graphical representations and past price data, it can lead to significant pitfalls—especially when employed thoughtlessly. This post explores common traps that novice traders often fall into.
1. Indicator Overload
One of the most prevalent mistakes among beginning traders is the overwhelming reliance on too many indicators. The assumption that a greater number of indicators equates to improved accuracy is misguided. In fact, indicators can produce conflicting signals, creating confusion rather than clarity.
Many indicators are designed to promote services or websites rather than provide genuine analytical insights. While a handful of fundamental tools can effectively cover most statistical needs, attempting to integrate 20 different indicators into a single chart is unnecessary and counterproductive. Instead, combining a varied set—such as moving averages, oscillators, support and resistance levels, and chart patterns—can yield more meaningful results.
2. Overlooking Fundamental Analysis
Ignoring fundamental analysis can skew a trader's understanding of market dynamics. Historical signals based on technical indicators may have been influenced by news events, leading to potentially misleading conclusions.
To establish a clear picture, traders should focus on less turbulent timeframes, like the H1, and select periods of low market activity to minimize external influences. Understanding the impact of macroeconomic factors and market makers can significantly enhance the reliability of technical analysis.
3. Misinterpreting Historical Data
Traders often rely on backtesting strategies against historical data, but this approach can be risky. Past performance does not guarantee future results, especially in real trading environments.
While testing strategies is essential, time-consuming optimization can be a poor use of resources. Due to varying quote suppliers among brokers, discrepancies of just a few points can drastically alter outcomes. Many experts suggest improving trader’s instincts by practicing on demo accounts as a more productive alternative to exhaustive backtesting.
4. False Breakouts
False breakouts frequently occur in strategies that depend on channel trading or trend line breakouts. These incidences often arise when market participants react counter to the prevailing trend.
For instance, a price surge that surpasses a resistance level may provoke profit-taking from certain traders, potentially reversing the trend. A nuanced understanding of the market's fundamental basis—such as in crypto markets, where large fund involvement can bolster price movements—can help traders evade premature entries. It’s advisable to remain cautious and wait for confirmation through additional price action before acting on a breakout signal.
5. Ignoring Instrument-Specific Characteristics
Each trading instrument has unique characteristics that influence its behavior, such as volatility and trading volume. Conducting analyses without accounting for these differences can lead to misguided strategies.
For example, cryptocurrencies often exhibit daily fluctuations of 10%, while indices may show changes closer to 2%. Hence, applying identical settings across diverse assets is inappropriate. Understanding the contextual drivers—for example, industry legislation or technological advancements—can illuminate the vulnerabilities of trading strategies.
6. Psychological Traps
The mental aspect of trading is often underestimated, with traders falling prey to cognitive biases such as wishful thinking. A signal may appear strong due to emotional fatigue or the desire to recoup losses, yet that doesn’t validate its authenticity.
Traders must strive to remain objective and grounded, conducting thorough analyses and verifying signals against fundamental factors rather than succumbing to emotional impulses.
7. Neglecting Timeframe Analysis
Focusing solely on a single timeframe, such as H1, can result in missed opportunities and significant oversights. Many traders disregard other timeframes, such as daily and weekly charts, which can provide crucial context to ongoing trends.
An upward trend on the daily chart should ideally reflect in multiple candlesticks on the smaller H4 timeframe. A comprehensive analysis of various timeframes can offer a more rounded view and aid in making informed trading decisions.
📍 Conclusion
Despite meticulous efforts to master technical analysis, errors and pitfalls are inevitable. Acknowledging these traps and actively mitigating their impact is critical in successful trading. Furthermore, incorporating robust risk management techniques and fostering emotional resilience will enhance a trader's journey. Each mistake serves as a valuable learning opportunity, paving the way for continuous growth and adaptation in trading financial markets.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
The focus of the gold market recentlyThe focus of the gold market recently has been developments in the United States after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. In a short period of time, the future cabinet list was announced with all candidates. is considered to have impressive achievements.
In addition, Mr. Donald Trump pledged to sharply increase taxes on America's three largest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and China. Economists say Mr. Trump's overall tariff plans could be the most damaging economic policy, causing inflation and reorganizing global supply chains.
According to experts, the short-term gold market is difficult to predict. However, fluctuations in gold prices create buying opportunities for investors.
Regarding the medium-term trend, Colin Cieszynski, expert at SIA Wealth Management, believes that the support price of 2,600 USD/ounce of gold will still be maintained and will tend to increase from there. Gold's resistance level is 2,690-2,720 USD/ounce. The gold market is unlikely to have a strong breakthrough in the near future.
🔥 GOLD BUY 2627 - 2625🔥
💵 TP1: 2640
💵 TP2: 2650
💵 TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2618
The short-term gold market is difficult to predictLast week, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure was the newly announced personal consumption expenditure index (PCE). PCE increased 2.8% over the past 12 months, higher than expected.
The US central bank indicated in its latest meeting minutes that higher-than-expected inflation could force it to adjust the pace of its easing cycle. The market still predicts the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and will continue cutting until early 2025.
In addition to Trump's social media posts, markets will focus on key economic data this week such as jobs data. If the employment situation is not as expected, gold prices may increase again. A stronger labor market could make an interest rate cut unlikely this month.
Investors who record profits can rest assured. In the long term, market sentiment is quite optimistic. Many analysts believe that gold price will reach 3,000 USD/ounce next year.
🔥 XAUUSD BUY 2627 - 2625🔥
💵 TP1: 2640
💵 TP2: 2650
💵 TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2618
Alikze »» ZK | Ascending Channel - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: The scenario of wave 3 or C super cycles in the ascending channel - 1D
- It is moving in an ascending channel in the daily time frame.
- According to the momentum and bullish guard, it is currently in the middle of the channel, which can continue its rise up to the range of the supply zone if the price breaks 0.1465.
- In addition, if it faces a correction in the middle of the channel, it can face demand again in the golden zone if it returns and continue the upward trend up to the ceiling of the channel and the supply range.
💎 Alternative scenario : In addition, if it faces selling pressure in the area of 0.1465 and the correction occurs quickly, the golden area is probably broken and the correction can continue until the OB area.
💎 Possible scenario:
Therefore, if the correction occurs in a zigzag fashion, it will have the ability to grow up to the specified areas and the bullish scenario can be more likely.
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BINANCE:ZKUSDT
MANTA 1D. Accumulation Ends. 12/02/24Previously, the price spent considerable time in an accumulation phase. After finding a bottom at $0.583, an upward trend began to form.
Currently, the price is testing a resistance level, attempting to break through and consolidate, which could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. Although unsuccessful so far, it seems to be only a matter of time. In the short term, a slight pullback is expected, followed by, in my opinion, continued growth.
Entry Plan (EP): $1.05 - $0.95
Take Profit (TP):
$1.535
$1.869
$2.222
Stop Loss (SL): $0.747
For spot positions: no stop-loss recommended.
DYOR.