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Sentimentalanalysis

Daily cloud resistance - most important obstetrical?After the last events which I myself didn't expect (Even though there were very strong signs for it from different directions, as well from traders I trust which put me in my place ^_^, as well from my own most valuable indicator that I love the most which I decided to ignore), and learned the mistakes.. we can continue and trade the pattern. * Overall lookup: 1. TA: - Movement averages - There are very strong PA bullish divergences (Especially if you look at MAs, EMAs, SMAs (Such as 12e and 33s) as most of them getting golden crosses which are V bullish) - Bullish. - Fib' level mid term: if we check since the begining of the current parabolic run, then we almost corrected to 0.5' levels, from my speculation we need to reset this parabolic run (just like we did on the last one) and to do so we need to fall to around 1'-0.7 fib' levels for a healthy bull run to happen, as this is just my speculation, then 0.5' fib' still might be enough, but from my side I really prefer to see another correction towards the 8.3 and even better towards the 4-7.2k... - Natural. - Fib' level short term: On this last rise and since we entered the parabolic run, both Fib's show that we have ways to go and correct now towards where their 0.6' fib level meet which is 9800-10050 levels - Temp' bearish (Correction) which from my perspective is a must if we want to continue this last bull rise. - Symmetrical triangle (Usually a continuation of any trend, but also a very strong reversal)- we broke it downwards, but lost momentum - thus this triangle was invalid (Some would argue that we didn't break it, as the floor is lower then what others see, but this changes from trader to trader and does not fit my own style) - Invalid. - Descending triangle (Usually a continuation of a bear market, but also a very strong reversal on bull market) - Until we won't break this triangle which I personally believe effects a lot of the market emotions (Yes retail sellers/buyers), I'm not convinced yet that we are on a bull market, some would say that other PA divergences have much more impact then patterns, but I must disagree as the market works with emotions, and patterns also change emotions) - Bearish. - Clouds short term - 1h we supressed, but I think if we are going to correct this move then we gonna enter into it and touch the bottom floor, which will lead us to touch above the 4h cloud - Temp' bearish (Correction), If we enter the 4h cloud, it will break the 1h cloud, which might turn the 4h cloud into a strong resistance again.. - Clouds Mid' term - we touched exactly the bottom of the daily cloud, this is the final step to supress the descending triangle, entering this cloud means we broke all obsticles, and if we create a bullish pattern above it means that we are finally confirmed to be in another bull run, I believe this will play out as a very strong resistance - Bearish. - Other oscillators and indicators: - Stoch and RSI - on short term (daily/4h) - they need to cool off, thus we gonna have this small correction... on mid term (weekly) - RSI look like needs a lot more to correct which the stoch looks like is ready for the bull run, as stoch is better then RSI from my perspective then to me it looks like - Bullish... on longer term if we check monthly, then both are at the top, but we also might not have enough data, and yet I do think that we should at-least have small correction to cool down, thus - Bearish. - Accum/Dist - I like to see this as indicator as confirmation for when there is uncertinty, when accumulation has too much distortion and a stop to bull run, then usually distribution taking effect just like we have seen on last parabolic run - Bearish. - MACD - looks to me very nutral on all the smaller TFs, but! the weekly shows that we might have a reversal - Bearish. - OBV - Although we confirmed the bullish movements for the 1h-4h (Every move up supressed the last low levels) we are still creating more lower lows on daily with still lots of room to drop, and also the buying power is still at zone levels that fit the 7400-8200 at 4h - Bearish. *** Some would say that most of the info here isn't relevant, but it fits my trading style, I might be wrong with my overview here but in the end we are all here in this space to learn and get better, if we enter a bull run by breaking the triangle, I will change my style as it will prove to me that my style isn't that good and that I need to change some perspective and give new priorities. but even if we break the triangle and go bullish, it doesn't matter if you know how to manage your portfolios well, and especially if you have at-least 2 different portfolios: 1. Long term investment portfolio - where you keep laddering BTCs as you don't care which price it is atm, because you directing it for 35-50k, and then 80-120k, and then even to 1m... 2. Trading portfolio - where you manage safe portfolio with tiny risks of 1-5% (Or better 1-3%), and stick to TPs, and have a plan to change your trading focus depending on the situation (such as breaking this triangle). 2. SA: - Also SA is greatly increasing (Due to the cumming Bakkt launch at 23/Sep, and also ETF decision on 29/Sep (Which if will be bad, then will bring a lot of bad sentimental with it) - very bullish. - We rose in fear/greed indicators from 5 to 28 and now 41, it means that we are very neutral now, we can go both ways - neutral. - The media is way too excited for me lately, I don't like it, usually when most of the media talks good it usually means you should sell, but as media is very manipulative for both directions, I prefer to stay: neutral. 3. FA: - Everyone knows how I talk about Fundamentals of BTC, it didn't change. Bitcoin technology isn't ready to bring mass adaption (even though news of institutions pushing it), LN was a failure (Amount of nodes dropping, and less activity in overall, still a shop owner can't use BTCs...), sure lots of institutions talk about aduption, and having many ideas, but these won't appear nor will make big effect this year and I think not even in next 2-3 years... not until BTC is matures in technology (In all: speed, amount of transactions, simplicity for the little poor shop owner)... - So some would ask me then if these fundamentals have bearish signs on BTC, well this is a big argument, I do think it has big impact against institutions and aduption, but Bitcoin is still both: 1. Medium of exchange - which is a very future like perspective, this might start really bringing mass adaption in between 5-10 years, but some say we won't even see that in our generation (Which I tend to agree with such speculation as well). 2. Store of value/scares - due to the upcoming halving, I do believe that we will see ATH next year (Can easily get to 25-50k), this will bring big excitement, and lots of 'wanabi rich' people will enter the field, BTC transactions will get again overloaded, and the correction (Or more like a bigger crush then the last parabolic run) will come right after.. but eventually BTC will always progress and always grow in price, I personally think that this year was good enough for BTC, but I also think that we are still in an 'echo bubble', I don't see ATH and I do see this correction towards the 4-8.2k before the next real parabolic bull run can begin again... I don't mind if I'm wrong on this speculation, I base it on a lot of variables as well, but if we break the triangle up and start the bull run already this year, I'll be more then happy as well... *** To conclude my overall thoughts: Short term (few days) we gonna have small correction to around 10050.. Mid term (14/Sep - 26/Oct) we are going to break this triangle up/down, if up then bull run returned, if down then it will take us long while to go back, but this is good for us! and the best from my perspective. Long term, keep investing in BTC, you won't regreat it ;), as I'm sure we will see 100k-1m one day ;).. Hope you had a nice (long) read, cheers. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** * If you like what I do, and want to see more then don't forget to push that "follow" and "like". * Also if you want live time signals and learn with the community then you are more then welcome to join here: t.me * If you want to appreciate my work with spare BTCs then you are welcome to send them to: bc1q8kzn0x8j4dmws00ntuhyma8p4c9jwyj0gzxua9 Cheers, love <3 Hedgehog King! ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Hedgehog_king
BTCUSD: exit longsI'm sitting out of trading at the moment but I am charting daily! as you can see we have CLEAR BEAR DIV. on our RSI indicating a pull back, also on the 4HR we can see negligible Shorts and Longs moving up through the roof. Price acction can not trend with sentiment over the long term, ie if LONGS are moving up price has to pull back... i would look to short this price on a smaller leverage and enter in higher leverage if price action begins to increase. If you aren't interested in SHORTING than this is a good oppurtunity to exit BTC back into USD in another stable coin of your preference!! I would be looking to TP and swing down for a re-entry! please stay vigilant! happy trading homies!! ** I am glued to charts everyday trading and if not trading charting for fun! i will update when i can and i will upload when i can. My account has had limited uploads over this BEAR period however my charting and attention to trades has been as high and as full time as ever!! DYOR.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by tradingtradefortading
3
Education post 24/100 – How to trade with Sentiment Analysis?Earlier, we said that price action should theoretically reflect all available market information. Unfortunately for us forex traders, it isn’t that simple. The forex markets do not simply reflect all of the information out there because traders will all just act the same way. Of course, that isn’t how things work. This is why sentiment analysis is important. Each trader has his or her own opinion of why the market is acting the way it does and whether to trade in the same direction of the market or against it. The market is just like Facebook – it’s a complex network made up of individuals who want to spam our news feeds. Kidding aside, the market basically represents what all traders – you, Warren Buffet or Celine from the donut shop – feel about the market. Each trader’s thoughts and opinions, which are expressed through whatever position they take, helps form the overall sentiment of the market regardless of what information is out there. The problem is that as retail traders, no matter how strongly you feel about a certain trade, you can’t move the forex markets in your favor. Even if you truly believe that the dollar is going to go up, but everyone else is bearish on it, there’s nothing much you can do about it (unless you’re one of the GSs – George Soros or Goldman Sachs!). As a trader, you have to take all this into consideration. You need to perform sentiment analysis. It’s up to you to gauge how the market is feeling, whether it is bullish or bearish. Then you have to decide how you want to incorporate your perception of market sentiment into your trading strategy. If you choose to simply ignore market sentiment, that’s your choice. But hey, we’re telling you now, it’s your loss! Being able to gauge market sentiment aka sentiment analysis can be an important tool in your toolbox. Later on in school, we’ll teach you how to analyze currency market sentiment and use it to your advantage, like Jedi mind tricks.
Education
by GroundStoneHoldings