SENSEX rally finally coming to an end?See the reaction at the lower line on the rising wedge. Once we break down we have two targets on the chart. A better entry could be the top of the wedge if you would like to sweeten the Risk-Reward ratio. I believe we will make a lower low. This rally doesn't make much sense and at these levels, I much rather be sitting in cash rather than hoping that the bubble will go on.
Sensex
Politechnical Analysis of BSE Sensex from 2004 to 2024Starting 2004 was a New Era of the Indian Political System wherein former RBI Chief and Finance Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh was elected as the Prime Minister of India.
From there the Indian markets saw a quick growth and transformation, Sensex rocketed from 4800 levels to 21,000 level in a matter of 4 yrs.
Then came the Sub Prime crisis in US which rattled the Global Market crashing stocks market by 60-70% globally.
There on the Sensex took its time to re establish growth. The Congress Govt faced huge backlash from the country on their governance, integrity and top party leaders had to face corruption allegations against them. The markets retested the previous highs of 2008 levels of before Sub-Prime Crisis, but could never breakout. The confidence was in the market was subdued for 6 years and the market just couldn't breakout.
March 2014, was the anticipation month of a new government, new hope, and the markets took that confidence to breakout from the 2008 Pre Subprime crisis highs.
April 2014 the election fever was at high, the market were turning volatile and at the same time an indecisiveness could be felt.
Then came the result month May 2014, BJP won and the markets shot itself up. There were a little blips in between due to Global Economic factors in 2016. But the next two years, saw an acceleration. The Midcaps and Small Caps were outperforming like never before. The amazing earnings of companies kept the markets soaring high.
TRADE WAR, COVID 19 and "Aatma Nirbhar"
Jan 2018, Trump had declared a Trade War on China, the trigger for Indian markets to fall was the Feb 2018 budget. From hereon the growth was subdued, Even though in 2 year the Sensex made a high of 42,000, the growth was only 4-5% over the 2 yrs. The markets kept looking quite weak as the earnings started taking a hit in most of the sectors. The valuations were still soaring and now the markets was expecting something new and big from the Modi lead BJP Govt. Even though the Finance Minister brought some corporate tax reform, which enable the markets to touch 42,000 mark. Just as the government was to bring the $5trillion Indian dream to reality, the world is hit by a deadly Coronavirus (COVID-19). This changes everything. Never ever anyone could imagine that life would come to a standstill. It crashed the markets horribly.
The Prime Minister now takes this decision and brings about a new term that will/may change the future of India. The Aatma Nirbhar Bharat (Self Reliant India). Right now what the markets are actually doing is "Retesting the Governance of Modi BJP 2014".
When I say retesting the governance, technically, the Markets may retest the entire rally from March 2014 breakout which also is a 61.8% fibonaaci retracement level from the lows of Sub Prime crisis to the highs of 2020. If the market is confident of the Modi Govts dream project of "Aatma Nirbhar Bharat" (Self Reliant India), We could see a mirror image (backwards) of 2004 to 2014 and an astonishing swing from 21,121 to 93,000 by May 2024. This rally would be called as "Aatma Nirbhar Rally".
Will reliance break ATH?Reliance after getting huge foreign investments also failed to break high of 1620, and still is trading below the long term bullish trend as you an ins the chart trading below diagonal line, this shows the bearishness of Reliance. Once can short reliance as per the targets mentioned in the charts . Longs only above All time high of 1620.
Has #TECHM made first Higher Low? If so, big move ahead possibly - Huge Weekly Supporting Trendline
- After Selling pressure, the stock entered consolidation zone.
- Big volumes came in to this consolidation suggesting that it was accumulation.
- Seems to have made the FIRST HIGHER LOW
- Observing HIGHs & LOWs on lower Time Frame to time the Entry.
- Any dip appears to be a BUY
- Buying here could mean buying at the beginning of new Uptrend.
- After Entry, you could consider trailing Stop Loss With EMAs (I use an EMA rainbow) on a smaller swing time frame (I trade 30 min).
All the best!!
6R Opportunity; Buy Zone Marked on Chart- Break of Down Trendline (forming a falling wedge in the end) indicating that Selling pressure has subsided.
- RSI showing Double Bullish Divergence is another indication.
- The last gap down opening was filled by a close above it.
- A Retrace to the marked Buy Zone is a buy.
Indian Oil Corp Price at monthly trend linepink line is monthly support around 70 rupees.
it is important to see this level when price hit this trend line support if price able to maintain this level than it can move upward to short term target 80 , 90 , 100 as relief rally ( corona crisis so it can repeat usoil rally too.)
no oil consumption can lead this to 50 , 60 rupees zone. same as usoil contract about to expire and negative price hit. but yes until pandemic is not over oil will go dip