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Seasonality

BTC Beginning of the Month Downward VolatilityBYBIT:BTCUSDT Seems we typically experience some downward volatility in the first week of each month since June. I certainly have noticed a trend: July 4/5 bottom, Aug 5 bottom, Sep 6 bottom. Let's see what the rest of the week has in store for us. -- -- -- -- Using the 50 period on the 12H for the ROC it seems we could be near a local top which has shown some tops/ bottoms in the past during this range. The blue boxes represent the beginning week of the months. YOY global liquidity is on the rise due to China easing significantly.
by bhx10
Energy Cycle Materials has just fired off and the next big sectors to look at are Energy and Utilities. Here are the charts I am watching - White is XEJ, - Yellow is US Oil Price, - Blue is Natural Gas, and - Orange is the Coal Price. Coal bottomed in January and has been on a progressive grind up for the past 8 months. Gas bottomed in March and then put in a convincing HL in June. Oil is being used as a political play for the Democrats heading into the election. As soon as the elections are over, there is no longer a need to manipulate oil prices, also as the Northern Hemisphere starts winter the energy usage and costs begin to soar. Everything works in cycles - The Energy cycle should start in November and run for 18-24 months. That is when the Energy Sector will start to fire. So its time to plan your Energy and Utility trades for November / December entries
ASX:XEJLong
by TappingCapital
1
OP & ALTs Resistance While I remain very bullish on crypto and alts I think this recent pump is not quite the true breakout. I like the OKX:OPUSDT chart because it's price action has been a nice cheat sheet/ indicator for where the crypto market is. Significant peaks are usually the tops and clear support zones are usually the bottom in the market. OP here seems to be replaying the same structure as last year. If it breaks out of this zone then perhaps alts are on the verge of the ultimate breakout. But in the past the major breakouts usually happen after a slow and gradual drift higher. The timing can be off but just using last year as a guideline. These sharp moves higher are usually shorts getting liquidated and longs jumping in from short term perp leverage traders which can be unsustainable for the true breakout back to ATH or new highs. There are exceptions like BINANCE:SUIUSDT where it shorts get liquidated, longs pile in, and lots of late spot fomo buying occurs. What invalidates this is if BTC creates a god candle breaking the 70k level from here and doesn't slow. It makes a little more sense to me if we see alt season towards very EOY or towards the very beginning of 2025 if crypto as a whole shows strength here in Q4.
by bhx10
1
A Fascinating Cycle in the S&P 500's ($SPX) Century-Long JourneyExplore this intriguing pattern in the S&P 500's performance over the past century, as highlighted by analyst Jay Kaeppel at Sentimentrader: - The Mid-Decade Boost: Remarkably, the 18-month period starting from October of a '4' ending year to March of a '6' ending year has consistently seen positive growth in the equity markets for the last ten decades - Visual Evidence: The accompanying chart illustrates the S&P 500's SP:SPX performance over the last 100 years, specifically highlighting the gains from October of years ending in 4 to March of years ending in 6 - Historical Success: We're on the cusp of this period once again. Historically, this timeframe has been lucrative, with the 1930s showing an impressive 64% return, while the 2010s saw a more modest, yet positive, return of about 4.5%. On average, returns of 35.8% were achieved during this periods - Cautionary Notes: While history provides a pattern, it's not a definitive predictor. Major fluctuations can and do occur Moreover, Jay points out that the current Shiller PE ratio stands high at 36.83 this October, potentially capping the upside when compared to starting points past decades in October of years ending in 4 -> Your Thoughts? Given this historical trend, do you believe that the trend in this decade will be positive again in the next 18 months, or do you believe that the current economic indicators make the patterns of the past irrelevant?
SP:SPX
by OfficerDonut
SOYBEANS - Are We Close to a Major Bottom? Cycles Say YES.Here is what I am currently watching for SOYBEANS. -We need to be aware that there is a major bullish divergence setup (not trigger) developing on the quarterly & monthly charts. We need to pay close attention to this setup, because if triggered/confirmed, it implies a massive move up for Soybeans would be on the horizon. -Interestingly, the Weekly chart has confirmed bullish divergence. The first target (1090) has not yet been hit, but in my opinion, it looks probable that Soybeans will hit that target (and possibly go as high as the second target (1179). This implies that I believe Soybeans is likely to rally at least 5% in the near future, and possibly rally as much as 10% from current price levels. -I will be aggressive with taking profits on any short setups that present, due to the bullish weekly divergence that has triggered. -Utilizing the Weekly MAC & Valuation methods, I note that this market is in an area where we can look for H6/Daily short trades. As mentioned in previous paragraph, I will utilize more aggressive targets. -The cycles for Soybeans...wow, they are quite something. Decennial cycle suggests significant low being put in, APZ's suggest major low around October 4th, major 5 year cyclical low RIGHT NOW. Other temporary and permanent blended cycles suggest a major low right now. Composite of the 3 most similar years of price action also suggest a major low could happen soon, with a major rally to March 2025. -A combination of the cycles and the major timeframe bullish divergences have me leaning somewhat towards calling a possible major bottom in the Soybeans market. I would prefer to see commercials COT positioning support this idea, which makes me think maybe we get another nice selloff into the August lows before the real bottom is in. But time will tell.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Tradius_Trades
Fork in the road... SPX EquitiesGeneral historic trends show printer money injection as a stimulant of equity valuations, with historic possibilities of repeating as well as a none money injection paths shown below. Whilst i enjoy a bullish market over many chart observations we have to conclude a retest of lower support before we plan to go higher. If market is left to its own devices it will flush bad debt out of the economy causing a large correction but a healthy stable recovery after the fire.
AMEX:SPY
by SuperScholarXYZ
NVDA - Still Bullish, But Major Potential Sell Signal LoomingThis week in NVDA I am paying attention to the following: -On the monthly timeframe, we see that there is a significant bearish divergence setup forming. This has not yet triggered, though, so the bulls can relax (for now). However, in 7 days when the Monthly candle closes, we need to pay close attention to the CCI divergence. If it confirms, it implies a MAJOR bearish correction for NVDA is on the horizon. -But in the meantime, everything is all systems go for the bulls. If you trade based on the Monthly, any pullbacks into the $88 region (Monthly MAC low) would be satisfactory spots to look for Buy triggers on the Daily timeframe. The Williams Acc/Dis is positioned well above its 57 period MA, which means we should look to buy any pullbacks into the low of the MAC. -Weekly analysis also implies all is good for the bulls. I will look for Buy triggers on the 6H chart if price pulls back into the $107 region (Weekly MAC low). -For fun, I throw some cyclical analysis into the mix. We see that NVDA has a strong seasonal cycle for an upmove from early October into November. Thank you for reading. Enjoy your week.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Tradius_Trades
10
Apple - High & Intermediate Term AnalysisToday, we look at Apple utilizing a variety of techniques: Divergence, MAC & Cycles. We need to keep an eye on the quarterly, monthly & weekly bearish divergences that are occurring. They have not yet triggered, so bulls don't have to worry (yet). But we must keep our eyes on these divergences, because if they trigger, they imply significant downside ahead for Apples share value. We take a look at the MAC and see that there is a case to be made for some further upside this week, and based on todays state of the indicators, longs are favored on any pullbacks to the MAC on the Daily chart. Cycles show a bit of a mixed bag of possibilities. I'm most interested in the Decennial pattern and the APZ's. Let me know if you have any questions.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Tradius_Trades
Cycle Analysis - Dollar IndexI am SETUP to hunt long TRIGGERS in the DX this week based on the COT strategy. So I thought I'd look, do cycles support the COT strategy looking for Longs? It turns out, they do. Decennial & Annual Predictable Zones (APZ's) supportive of up move to Early/Mid October Intermarket analysis finds a striking 60.9% correlation to DX's current price action to that of the price action found in 1991. Based on the intermarket analysis, we expect a major cyclical low sometime around now. The long term blend of the 51.5 month & 581 day cycles show a major cyclical low should be around the corner for DX. The short term blend of the 20.6, 29.9 & 115.6 day cycle is supportive of longs until a short term cyclical high early-mid October.
ICEUS:DXZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
BITCOIN BULLMARKET📊 In technical analysis, the most important time frame is always the highest one. For Bitcoin, it’s the yearly time frame. 🔴 Historically, after a red yearly candle, Bitcoin follows with three green ones. Don’t be swayed by macroeconomic fears or geopolitical conflicts. 🚀 The Bitcoin bull market is here, ticking like a time bomb. Any moment, it could explode, and the crypto market will follow. 🎯 Protect your capital, invest with a solid entry/exit plan, and manage risk wisely. Success comes from discipline and executing your plan to the letter.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Jaytradermb
COT Strategy - SHORT JAPANESE YENDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Japanese Yen (6J) My COT strategy has me on alert for new short trades in 6J if we get additional bearish entry triggers (this week a divergence entry triggered short). COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish. OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6JZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
1
COT Strategy - Gold ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Gold (GC) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Only thing that would be better is SS's making an extreme in long positioning, but no luck with that yet (but something I'm watching). OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move since June. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. In the case of Gold, it is being caused by LS & SS's, which is bearish. Spread: Bearishly diverging. ADX: Diverging, implying the trend lacks integrity. Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dis , %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet triggered) Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
COT Strategy - Crude Oil LongsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL again this week. To clarify, this was setup last week also, and triggered me long this week via a CCI divergence long trigger. Based on this weeks COT strategy analysis, I think this is a nice market for further upside and will look to enter again via 18MA & 10H8C MAC entry methods. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal. Net Positioning: Max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small Spec Index: Buy Signal. Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries. Front Month Premium Market. True Seasonal up to Mid October. Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic. Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a Daily long trigger. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
High Beta Bear | HIBS | Long at $22.00 (September Only)Historically, September is one of the worst performing months in the stock market. A hedge against my bets for this month is to buy shares of Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X AMEX:HIBS as a volatility play. The index provider selects 100 securities from the S&P 500 Index that have exhibited the highest sensitivity to market movements, or “beta,” over the past 12 months based on the securities’ daily price changes. This isn't "buy and hold" play, whatsoever - you'll loose. It's a short duration hedge using seasonality odds that *may* be in my favor (i.e., September sucks) Target #1 = $24.85 Target #2 = $26.00 Target #3 = $28.00+ A stop exists below $20.00.
AMEX:HIBSLong
by WorthlessViews
Oracle ($ORCL) Gap-Fill & Earning Jump PlayTheory : Oracle has a history of significant price gaps after earnings reports. The stock is currently trading within an ascending channel and has an open gap from the last earnings. I expect a pullback to close this gap before the next earnings report triggers a potential upward gap. Ideal Entry Point : 142.51 - 144.97 USD (after the gap fills and the price hits channel support). Profit Taker : Targeting 192.27-195.02 USD (2 weeks range after earnings report), aligning with the top of the ascending channel and historical earnings reactions. This move represents a potential 35%+ gain. Disclaimer : This idea is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. I am not a professional, and you should do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by elka_graph
3
Comparison: $TSLA and $PLTR S&P 500 InclusionComparison: NASDAQ:TSLA and NYSE:PLTR S&P 500 Inclusion Palantir Technologies is set to join the S&P 500 on September 23, 2024 This milestone mirrors Tesla's inclusion in the index back on December 21, 2020 - Tesla's Journey: Prior to its S&P 500 inclusion, Tesla's stock experienced a significant upward trend, which continued for several weeks post-inclusion before entering a prolonged period of sideways consolidation for almost a year (chart above) - Palantir's Path: Interestingly, Palantir's stock price trajectory in the months leading up to its S&P 500 inclusion shows striking similarities to Tesla's pre-inclusion performance (chart below) Do you think that Palantir will behave similarly to Tesla after the inclusion? i.e.: - Short-term: Further upward trend in the immediate weeks following its inclusion - Long-term: A possible sideways consolidation, akin to Tesla's post-inclusion phase
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by OfficerDonut