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Seasonality

Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days. Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then. February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm Were are we today? Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment. Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis. Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event). Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again? I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there. I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by entomologyx
BTC and the previous three US Election DatesThis charts the dates of the previous three US Elections (2012, 2016 and 2020) on a log chart, with price on the horizontal axis at daily candle close. As you can see, once price breaks above (sometimes next day, as in 2020, sometimes a week or more later, as in 2016 and in 2012) price has never returned - ever. Plotted are the time and percentage difference from election date to cycle ATH. On average it's 387 days apart. If things play out this time in a similar fashion we can expect this week into mid next week to be the final time BTC will be in the mid 60k per coin - ever.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Jaekus
2
Slowly starting to scale in on OILThe fundamental outlook for oil is looking bullish. Despite seasonality favoring lower crude oil prices towards the end of the year, the conflicts in the Middle East are pushing prices higher. Technically, the downward move that has been in place since the beginning of July could now experience a correction. Therefore, I’ll begin slowly scaling into oil at the 61.8% retracement level, keeping in mind that prices could drop further before the end of the year. According to seasonality, we could see the high in oil prices around May 2025. Let’s see how it plays out.
AMEX:UCOLong
by p4917
UsdJpy- Will history repeat itself?As we approach the final months of the year, it’s worth noting the impact of JPY repatriation, which traditionally occurs when Japanese investors pull funds back to Japan, boosting yen demand. This trend often leads to an appreciation in the Japanese yen, affecting currency pairs like FX:USDJPY , as demand surges. Historically, this phenomenon has triggered notable yen strength. For example, last year saw USD/JPY fall by around 1,000 pips due to these repatriation flows. Assuming similar conditions prevail, we could anticipate another yen rally by this year's end. Technical Overview of USD/JPY: Currently, USD/JPY recently hit a high of around 154, moving into a key resistance area. At the time of writing, the price hovers above the horizontal support level. A decisive break below it could indicate a bearish “false break,” potentially signaling a larger downside move. Should the downtrend persist, potential targets could be set at: - Slightly under 150, - Followed by further support at 147, - And ultimately, a critical support at 141.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
1
AudJpy- Good shorting opportunity of 500 pipsAfter an upward reversal in early August and a higher low in mid-September, AUD/JPY continued climbing to reach a local high around 102. However, the pair has since stalled in this area, entering what appears to be a distribution phase. Currently, it seems to be testing a critical support level around 100. A successful break below this level could signal an accelerated downward move. A medium-term target for this decline is around 95, with an interim support level at 98—an attractive target for traders who are not so patient.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
Weekly Forecast: A High Volume Week Ahead!Common themes across the board with daily rallies that need to exhaust sooner or later and price approaching (if not already in) weekly EPD levels which overlap with Order Blocks or Fair Value Gaps. With an abundance of opportunity in the market, be careful not to marry your bias by maintaining a neutral perspective on all pairs. My Bias for the week is as follows: DXY - LONG EURUSD - SHORT AUDUSD - SHORT GBPJPY - LONG USDJPY - LONG
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
Bitcoin at the brink of... what exactly?Seems like Bitcoin is at the brink of an outbreak, but if bulls aren't strong enough, it might go down again for a while. Since March '24, Bitcoin is building up a huge megaphone pattern, which should be a good, bullish sign. The price has escaped this pattern lately, but if Bitcoin falls below 65k, we're in it again and it might take another turn down, maybe even to 42k, until it's going up again. I'm quite positive that this is not going to happen, since we're at the end of the year, which is usually a good time for bulls. Plus the US election will relieve tensions in the market, once it's finally over - if nothing bad happens, like e.g. what happened in January at the capitol last time. If the breakout lasts, I'd say there's a good chance for a new price explosion similar to the end of 2020, which could bring up BTC to roughly 260k in the best scenario. This would also be in line with the 4-year cycle, Bitcoin follows for some more time now, mainly due to the halvings. There are however some resistances in between, for example the Fibonacci levels at 105k and 165k. Additionally the 100k threshold will most likely be hard to crack, especially since the Fibonacci level is just 5k above. Whatever the near future, I'm optimistic, we'll reach the goal of >250k within the next 18 months. I could even image it going higher, since the increase in price was almost 10x between the peaks in 2014 and 2018. Between 2018 and 2021, it was only about 3x, which in my opinion was caused by the pandemic and Trump's free money leading to an early rise and finally in a double top.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by x-ecutor
1
Why WEN Could Reach $0.01: Raise Your Targets Now!In this technical analysis, we break down the reasons and factors suggesting that WEN could reach the coveted value of $0.01. We are on the brink of a bullish supercycle, particularly in the meme cryptocurrency sector, where cat-themed memes are gaining unprecedented relevance, similar to the phenomenon seen with Bonk (dog-themed). It's crucial for everyone involved to reassess and elevate their projections, as we are very close to achieving this milestone. With a projected market cap of $7 billion, the possibility of WEN surpassing the penny threshold is tangible. We cannot ignore the potential price impact if influential figures like Murad mention WEN on platforms like Twitter; such an event could unleash a wave of FOMO so intense it could potentially propel us to an unexpected value of up to a dollar. The community strongly supports WEN, and while its ecosystem benefits are evident, our immediate focus is reaching the penny mark. Dog-themed cryptocurrencies have fallen out of fashion, and capital rotation is heading towards memes with higher FOMO potential, with WEN being one of the most notable. See you on the moon, and remember to wear a helmet, because the WEN cat already has his on! The cat is cute.
Long
by winnerwinnerchickendinnerWIN
2
Dollar Index Consolidation: Will NFP Trigger an Upside Breakout?Since its recent touch on the support zone back in August, the U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has entered a period of consolidation, characterized by multiple attempts to break through this critical support level. Despite several instances where the price briefly dipped below the technical support zone, each time, the market witnessed a strong reversal, with bulls stepping in to defend the level successfully. From my perspective, we are nearing a potential upside reversal, and the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday could serve as the catalyst for this move. Currently, 102 is the key level to watch for confirmation of an upward breakout. Should the DXY break above this threshold, the next reasonable target would be around 104, marking a significant bullish shift in momentum.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
15
Gold Bulls in Control: New ATH Expected SoonAs discussed in Monday's analysis, Gold is likely to reach a new all-time high this week, and I still hold this view. After a brief dip that corrected last week's gains, the bulls regained control. At the time of writing, the price stands at 2677, surpassing the local resistance level of 2667 and nearing the previous ATH of 2685. My strategy remains to buy on dips, and in terms of targets, we could see Gold trading above 2700 in the coming days(if not even today)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
10
Two weeks of bullish momentum ahead?I entered a long position in the NASDAQ:QQQ ETF a few days ago after the price pulled back to the previous high. It was a slightly premature entry, as the price continued to pull back to the 50% retracement level of the last bullish move. 😉 The overall chart looks a bit exhausted from the bullish run following the August low, but I still expect the NASDAQ to rise until the US election. Statistically, since the 1950s, there has been over an 80% chance that the stock index rises before the election. Additionally, we're supported by the SMAs, and there’s still some room left until the ATH is reached. Good trades, folks!
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by p4917