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Seasonality

Crude Oil Bearish ContinuationNYMEX:CL1! Crude Oil futures marked on the 1D chart CL looks like it wants to target $66 on the weekly chart, so here's the daily chart for zoomed in analysis. Confluences Relative equal highs (EQH) for internal buyside liquidity rests in the middle of the range. Imbalance above EQH. Rejected a past 1D liquidity void. Rejected a past 1D imbalance. Overall bearish order flow since the summer; draw on liquidity is lower. Bearish order block that took buyside liquidity; should now seek sellside on higher time frame. Break of Structure (BOS) I believe we may see a midweek reversal for Crude Oil. We are at a discount so a premium will first be sought after (the EQH and imbalance around ~76), but the higher time frame narrative is still bearish until $66.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Sans_Sheriff
3
SPREAD TRADING STRATEGY ON COMMODITIESThis spells trading opportunity for us as Palm Oil and Soybean Oil are generally considered substitute products, which means, at a large enough price difference, buyers may hop over to buy the cheaper one. Eventually closing the price gap back to its historical mean. Some potential tailwinds for Crude Palm Oil include; 1) The reopening of China, which would increase the demand for palm oil from the world’s 2nd largest importer of the product. 2) Biofuel Mandates, which would put higher demand pressure on Palm Oil . 3) Slowing production growth in palm oil could lead to supply-demand imbalances, pushing palm oil higher as supply falters. One way to trade this price divergence would be to short the Soybean Oil – Palm Oil spread. This trade can be set up by selling 1 Soybean Oil Futures and buying 1 USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures . However, do note that in such a set-up, the position is not fully ‘hedged’ as the contract units are different, 1 Soybean Oil Futures has a contract unit of 60,000 Pounds (~27.21 metric tons) while 1 Crude Palm Oil Futures is for 25 metric tons. Sources: https: //www .tradingview.com/u/inspirante/ https: //www .cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/spreading-cbot-soybean-oil-and-bmd-crude-palm-oil.pdf https: //www .cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/palm-oil-spread-volatility-creates-opportunities.html https: // jakartaglobe.id/business/palm-oil-prices-production-to-drop-in-2023-gapki https: // oec.world/en/profile/hs/palm-oil
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by SirPoji
EURJPY BUYEURJPY currently has a score of +1, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 69.98%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 31.12%. This category receives a +2, as institutional traders favor the EUR. Taking a look at EURJPY, we see that retail traders are 42% long, and 58% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURJPY gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the EUR, inflation favors the JPY, unemployment favors the JPY and interest rates favor the EUR
ELong
by Jury_P
GBPNZD STRONG SELLGBPNZD currently has a score of -8, or a Strong Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theGBP has a long percentage of 35.66%, and we see that the NZD has a long percentage of 42%. This category receives a -1, as institutional traders favor the NZD. Taking a look at GBPNZD, we see that retail traders are 60% long, and 40% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theGBPNZD gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
GShort
by Jury_P
5
AUDUSD SELLAUDUSD currently has a score of -5, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theAUD has a long percentage of 32.72%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 74.9%. This category receives a -2, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at AUDUSD, we see that retail traders are 61% long, and 39% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theAUDUSD gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +1. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the USD, unemployment favors the AUD and interest rates favor the USD
AShort
by Jury_P
2
GBPUSD SELLGBPUSD currently has a score of -3, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theGBP has a long percentage of 35.66%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 74.9%. This category receives a -2, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at GBPUSD, we see that retail traders are 59% long, and 41% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theGBPUSD gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +1. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the USD, unemployment favors none and interest rates favor the USD
GShort
by Jury_P
2
GBPJPY SELLGBPJPY currently has a score of -3, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theGBP has a long percentage of 35.66%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 22.8%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at GBPJPY, we see that retail traders are 65% long, and 35% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theGBPJPY gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors none, inflation favors the JPY, unemployment favors the JPY and interest rates favor the GBP
GShort
by Jury_P
1
CADJPY SELLCADJPY currently has a score of -3, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCAD has a long percentage of 34.98%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 22.8%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at CADJPY, we see that retail traders are 60% long, and 40% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCADJPY gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CAD, inflation favors the JPY, unemployment favors the JPY and interest rates favor the CAD
CShort
by Jury_P
CHFJPY BUYCHFJPY currently has a score of +4, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCHF has a long percentage of 13.03%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 22.8%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at CHFJPY, we see that retail traders are 38% long, and 62% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCHFJPY gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CHF, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the CHF
CLong
by Jury_P
EDU: BOTTOMING PATTERN & GAP FILL PLAYEDU ( Chinese stock ): I'm bullish Chinese stocks in general but I really do like the look of EDU. A few reasons to keep a good look on EDU: - price is now above all the moving averages on the daily chart; - price is getting back above the Ichimoku cloud; - there is a huge gap between $29.70 and $57.34; - the weekly chart chart has the look of an inverted head and shoulders (but not really perfect). Has EDU found a bottom? It looks like it. Can we fill that gap? Not sure. However the chart looks promising. The next resistance is at 29.70. If we cross 29.70 I would expect the price to accelerate to the next resistance of 50.27, then potentially fill the gap. If we see weakness in the coming days, the next supports are at 24 and 22. I would wait for the price to cross 29.70 before initiating a long position. My 1st target will then be around 50, my second target will be at 57. Trade safe! (This is no financial advice. Technical analysis is given to help you make your own decision. As always place a stop loss when you enter the position, and do not ignore risks of delisting for Chinese ADRs).
NYSE:EDULong
by Elpidaldo
2
TAL: inverted head and shoulders and gap fill playTAL (Chinese Stock) : I'm bullish Chinese stocks in general but I really do like the look of TAL, which looks very similar to EDU. A few reasons to keep a good look on TAL: - price is slowly getting back above the Ichimoku cloud; - there is a huge gap between $9.68 and $17.36; - the weekly chart chart has the look of an inverted head and shoulders (bottoming pattern). Has TAL found a bottom? It looks like it. Can we fill that gap? Not sure. However the chart looks promising. The next resistances are at 5.45, 5.66, 5.91 and 6.48. If we cross 6.48 I would expect the price to accelerate to the next resistance of 9.68, then potentially fill the gap. If we see weakness in the coming days, the next supports are at 4.62 and 4.28. I'm initiating a long position today with a stop around 4.80. If you cannot monitor your trade actively, waiting for a break of 6.48/6.80 is a wise decision. Trade safe! (This is no financial advice. Technical analysis is given to help you make your own decision. As always place a stop loss when you enter the position, and do not ignore risks of delisting for Chinese ADRs).
NYSE:TALLong
by Elpidaldo
2
DOLLAR COT STUDY - COT DIV BEFORE DIST- SEP FOMC meetings pivotal post-Covid ACCUMULATION: - From FOMC SEP 2020 until FOMC SEP 2021 price was accumulating in a range - From FOMC SEP 2021 until FOMC SEP 2022 price was trending up MARK UP: - Trend progressed in 3 COT-stages: 1. Re-accumulation (Large COT increase while price remains relatively depressed) 2. Mark Up (Limited COT increase while price rallies) 3. Climax Buy (COT Tops after limited increase while price rallies followed by big retrace) DISTRIBUTION: - First portion of distribution started after Climac Buy - Price makes Higher Highs followed by topping formation while COT makes Lower Highs - Re-distribution phase starts after FOMC SEP 2022 - Price is no longer supported by Instituions EXPECTATIONS: - Weekly (fresh) Demand-Zone at 99.50 - 99.50 is 50% of swing from 2021-Low to 2022 Climax Buy - From 99.50 wait for COT to indicate new phase
INDEX:DXYShort
by xtrader1
AUDNZD STRONG SELLAUDNZD currently has a score of -9, or a Strong Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theAUD has a long percentage of 32.72%, and we see that the NZD has a long percentage of 42%. This category receives a -1, as institutional traders favor the NZD. Taking a look at AUDNZD, we see that retail traders are 95% long, and 5% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theAUDNZD gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
AShort
by Jury_P
USDCAD STRONG BUY (but I'll hedge also my position with a SELL)USDCAD currently has a score of +8, or a Strong Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theUSD has a long percentage of 74.9%, and we see that the CAD has a long percentage of 34.98%. This category receives a +2, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at USDCAD, we see that retail traders are 25% long, and 75% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theUSDCAD gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the CAD, unemployment favors the USD and interest rates favor the USD
ULong
by Jury_P
1
USDJPY SELLUSDJPY currently has a score of +1, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theUSD has a long percentage of 74.9%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 22.8%. This category receives a +2, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at USDJPY, we see that retail traders are 47% long, and 53% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theUSDJPY gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the JPY, unemployment favors the JPY and interest rates favor the USD
UShort
by Jury_P
GBPUSD SELLGBPUSD currently has a score of -3, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theGBP has a long percentage of 35.66%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 74.9%. This category receives a -2, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at GBPUSD, we see that retail traders are 59% long, and 41% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theGBPUSD gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +1. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the USD, unemployment favors none and interest rates favor the USD
GShort
by Jury_P
3
EURNZD SELLEURNZD currently has a score of -5, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 67.91%, and we see that the NZD has a long percentage of 42%. This category receives a +1, as institutional traders favor the EUR. Taking a look at EURNZD, we see that retail traders are 54% long, and 46% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURNZD gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -1. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
EShort
by Jury_P
1
EURJPY BUYEURJPY currently has a score of +5, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 67.91%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 22.8%. This category receives a +2, as institutional traders favor the EUR. Taking a look at EURJPY, we see that retail traders are 45% long, and 55% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURJPY gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the EUR, inflation favors the JPY, unemployment favors the JPY and interest rates favor the EUR
ELong
by Jury_P