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Seasonality

Nasdaq 100 Consolidates Near Record High: Is a 22,000 Target NexThe U.S. presidential election has sparked optimism also in the stock market, with the technology index rising by 1,000 points. Following this new all-time high, the Nasdaq 100 ( PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 ) is now consolidating just below that level. This consolidation is taking the shape of a flag pattern, which could signal potential for further upward movement. A breakout to the upside would confirm this pattern and could set the stage for additional gains, with a target of 22,000 points.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Bitcoin diminishing return?Bitcoin is famous with its cycles, halving and huge returns. Since 2012 price has gone up from 2$ to 90,000$. Each cycle starts with halving and then price goes up by hundreds or thousands percent and then come back down. Since 2012, we have completed three cycles and we are in the fourth one. In the first cycle, the lowest price was 2$ and then jumped to 1160$, this was a 52,287% increase! The next cycle from bottom to top we had 12,511% increase. The third cycle had 1,921% increase. The pattern seems clear. Each time the return is diminishing by 4 to 6 times: 52287 divided by 12511 = 4.17 12511 divided by 1921 = 6.5 That means in this cycle the increase from the cycle bottom at 15,500$ should have been between 320% to 480% (this number comes from 1921% divided by 4 and 6). A 320% to 480% increase from 15,500$ is 70,000$ and 95,000$ respectively. Bitcoin is well beyond the first target at 70,000$ and at the moment of writing this, is only 5,000$ short of 95,000$. However, there is a problem with diminishing return theory. To make it more clear let's look at this theory from market top perspective. In the last two cycles, market top to market top, have had 1,900% and 356% return. That means the return diminished by 5.5 times. If the same thing were to happen again it means the current market top should have only been 65% (356 divided by 5.5) of the previous market top. That means the current market top should be 45,000$. Now the same thing will happen to market bottom to top if you believe that market has diminishing return. Based on this theory in the next cycle from market bottom to top there only will be around 80% to 120% increase and the cycle after only 25% to 75% increase from bottom and so on. That means at some point the price will never reaches even back to the previous cycle top. This is very unlikely given that bitcoin will only be more scarce and the global money supply will only increase.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mo_reza_kaz
MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC | BTC COLOURED CANDLES [Weekly]Hi All. Since my prior post on this indicator, I have been asked to show this indicator with risk level colours against price. I initially built this functionality in originally (during the development of this indicator) a number of different ways but ended up simplifying to using pine scrip 'bar color' function. This post shows BTC's behavior to historic over / under extension and volatile ranges in prior cycles on the Weekly chart. I will follow this post showing the daily chart. Feel free to interact with the chart on a computer via this post (phone apps only show the static image with trading view posts).
BNC:BLXLong
by Brodie
SMA Golden Ratio | CYCLE 4 ATH UpdateIn accordance with historical behavior, BTCs ATH each cycle has corresponded with the next SMA line down (following a multiplication factor of the Fibonacci sequence). As observed in CYCLE 3, BTC tag the BLUE line putting in the Technical High of this cycle meaning CYCLE 4 should tag the Yellow line if History is to repeat. The Second and ATH top of CYCLE 3 tag two lines down hitting the gray line. We can see BTC has already tag the Yellow line when BTC tage ~73K USD. Looking at CYCLE 3, BTC played with the BLUE line multiple times before settling with the top. Considering this in CYCLE 4 BTC may make another attempt at intercepting the Yellow line again depending no how parabolic BTC will be over the AUS summer period will land the price in the zones discussed in the below post. BTC in CYCLE 4 may also contact the gray line and in this scenario most tops out around the 100K region December 2024 / January 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
BUY / SELL INDICATOR| CYCLE 4 ATH UpdateAssuming we reach the Light Red line again of the BUY / SELL indicator, as per our analysis in the below post this could suggest an ATH for CYCLE 4 could land in the 117K to 157K region. It is noted while it was the second top in CYCLE 3; our purple line met / crossed but did not exceed past our orange signal line materially (see red arrow above). This marked the second and ATH of Cycle 3. We are approaching this scenario with the orange and purple line as we approach the mid 90K region (see cross and second red arrow above). Worth tracking on your radar. Again if we continued on as we have with prior cycles and reach either or both the Red Lines of the BUY / SELL indicator we would be expecting a very parabolic period ahead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
1-800-Flowers.com | FLWS | Long at $8.001-800-Flowers.com NASDAQ:FLWS has been in price consolidation mode since 2022 and may be gearing up for an upward move as my historical selected simple moving average reconnects with the price. The company is expected to become profitable in 2025 and the holiday season is approaching. Historically, this is the period when the price begins to rise. With a 25 million float and 14.54% short interest, this ticker could get interesting if it takes off. But be cautious as the economy seems to be showing signs of slowing... At $8.00, NASDAQ:FLWS is in a personal buy zone. Target #1 = $9.20 Target #2 = $10.50 Target #3 = $20.50 (long-term if the economy is strong...)
NASDAQ:FLWSLong
by WorthlessViews
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value. Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart. #US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
TVC:US10Y
by AFCapital21
Don't F@ck up the Banana zone!This is the Others marketcap vs the Bitcoin Market cap chart. With their respective Banana zones for the past couple cycle and the current one we have already started. The KEY takeaway is you should be feeling the FOMO and kind already have been deployed into your favourite #Alts This #altseason may yield one of the worst performances in a cycle --- which I have warned a few times now. And finish sooner than you think. If you had waited for confirmation of a altcoin breakout and rotated/bough at the sad face this how your returns would have been crippled. 21 X ----> 5.8X 2017 6.4X ----> 3X 2021 3/4X -----> 1.75X/2.3X 2025 Drastically different. I hope you have found this chart informative. Smash the likes.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by BallaJi
Is Gold's correction over?In my recent analyses, I warned that a significant correction in Gold prices was inevitable. True to this prediction, the election of Donald Trump triggered a sharp 1,000-pip drop in Gold's value. However, yesterday, the market rebounded strongly, recovering 700 pips from that initial decline. The big question now is whether this correction has run its course. In my view, we may have reached a bottom, and Gold could be poised to resume its overall uptrend. I’m currently looking for buying opportunities on dips.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
BTC dominance reveals how to navigate crypto cyclesHello everyone, this one is for patient (long-term) traders/investors, not for those chasing daily gains or short term swings. We are looking at BTC dominance chart. BTC dominance is currently at 60%, which is pretty high. Everyone who follows cryptos for some time should know how crypto cycles work. BTC is king and always leads the way. BTC if the first one to start the bull run, altcoins follow. When BTC is near its peak, money transfers into ALTs --> start of ALTSEASON. The first peak of altcoin season was January 2018. BTC dominance was at 35%. After Jan 2018 we went into a bear market. BTC dropped in value, ALTCOINS dropped even more. Consequently, BTC dominance went up. BTC dominance reached top at 74% in Jan 2021. That is when ALTSEASON started. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT BTC REACHED TOP in Jan 2021. BTC rose from 40k to 70k between Jan 2021 and Nov 2021, but ALTs in this period made bigger gains. BTC dominance in this period plummeted from 74% to 40%, creating a base for future. From Jan 2023 BTC has been rising and increasing its dominance, currently sitting at 60%. I am positive it will not break high of Jan 2018. Next strong resistance is in the area of 64-67%, I expect dominance to reverse in this area. BTC has already made a new ATH, but total crypto market space is not at an ATH yet. So ALTs are lagging in comparison to previous cycle. I believe we are at the start of ALT season and I will be looking into ALTs for my last gains this cycle. Check my other posts to see which ALTS I am considering. I will also be posting some other ALTs in coming days/weeks, so subscribe to stay notified. Good luck to everyone.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by carefulCheese32259
Bullish time in CORN ahead \o/You can see here the CBOT:ZC1! price displayed in a line chart. After reaching its high in early 2022, the bears took control, driving the price down significantly until now. The factors in play are as following: Seasonality: Corn prices have historically shown strength from December through March, aligning with planting and crop cycles. This seasonal trend could provide a solid backdrop for a potential price recovery. (highlighted in green on the chart) Interest Rates: We’ve reached a pivotal moment in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle. The rate hikes that began in March 2022 coincided with the start of the bearish trend, while recent rate cuts in September 2024 may support a rebound in commodity prices, including corn. This shift in monetary policy could act as a bullish catalyst for corn and other commodities. (highlighted in orange on this chart) Technical Indicators: For additional confirmation, one could wait for a bullish crossover of the moving averages (a golden cross). Such a cross would reinforce the technical setup and definitively signal the onset of a new bull market in corn. With these factors in play, corn could be setting up for a strong rally in the months ahead.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by p4917