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Seasonality

Clarity on your chartsIn this analysis of Bitcoin, I intend to use SMT (Smart Money Trading) concepts to read the price and understand what the chart is indicating. Based on this analysis, I believe that Bitcoin's price will continue to experience strong downward movement until the second quarter of 2024, providing an opportunity for investors to make potentially profitable investments "I am a new ICT student who is still learning and mastering the concepts. I practice your ideas daily, analyzing markets such as the S&P 500,Nas, US30 commodities like gold, and cryptocurrencies. Stay tuned for more updates!" Follow for more.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by digas_069
1
Bitcoin - Wyckoff Method Phase B ?Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. With this chart, we aim to identify the current phase of Bitcoin / BTCUSD / BTCUSDT by using the Wyckoff Method . The Wyckoff Method can be extremely technical and complicated, with many phases, sub-phases, sub sub phases etc. The four main phases of the market cycle are accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown . On this specific chart, we're taking a look at the accumulation cycle . If we look at the two image examples provided and combine them with Fibonacci time cycles, Phase B could last up until September 2023, or towards Q4 of this year. What is means for BTC now, is that we can still see an extended period of range trading for the next few months. Here are some terms and definitions you may find helpful : PS—preliminary support - where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC—selling climax - the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC , reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR—automatic rally - which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST—secondary test - in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC . It is common to have multiple STs after a SC . SOS - sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume . Often a SOS takes place after a spring , validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action. LPS - last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume . On some charts, there may be more than one LPS , despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term. BU - “back-up”. This term is short-hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level. Furthermore, a brief look at the phases: Phase A Marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. Selling climax ( SC ) occurs here. Phase B Institutions and large professional interests are accumulating at relatively low-prices in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more) and involves purchasing at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales. Phase C It is in Phase C that the price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. Phase D If you've plotted the phases correctly, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume , as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. Phase E Price begins to behave bullish as demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone. Setbacks, such as shakeouts and more typical reactions, are usually short-lived. All of the above in mind, I believe we are currently still trading in Phase B of the Wyckoff Method Accumulation phase. This means that we may still test support zone / resistance zone multiple times, until a clear bottom has been established. This would need to be lower than the most recent bottom, and I still think the possibility exists of returning back to $13K levels. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
by CryptoCheck-
31
BITCOIN (BTCUSD) - Week 09 - Weekly / Daily Analysis▪️2W Analysis Here is our view on BTC Looking at the 2W TF, we’ve used the same interval time from the highest point to lowest point for each bearish trend and at same time looking at RSI to find matching Low - we had already done an initial analysis on that exact same chart early 2022 and then provided an update end of 2022. If that pattern is to repeat itself again for a third time, this could very well be the start of a bull run. In regards to Price Target I have plugged in a curved TL (magenta) across each Higher Highs created at end of each bull run, and if this is correct, we could expect BTC to reach the $140K price level, approx x7 from current price. Now as we all know, nothing is certain in life, especially in the Crypto space, albeit I believe BTC has good chance to reach to that price by end of sep 2025. ▪️Daily Analysis Since end of November, price has been bullish, we have seen first sign of that potential bull run with a push to the upside with momentum which broke that first Lower high (COD red line), at same time a Break of major TL and the retest made both on the broken structure and that TL, from there price pushed up again to reach the $25K “psy level” from which it got rejected. I am now anticipating further ranging in that zone (20K / 25K), there is nothing in between that is particularly compelling. The daily time frame is the subject of much debate at the time of writing. In particular, the issue at hand is whether or not the current pullback might just be a higher low preceding the new higher high at $25K, which I think is unlikely. As per last few months (June - nov 2022) this price range has been extremely erratic. And since then, there has been no follow-through from any of the range breakouts, it may be premature to anticipate a clear market structure pattern. Second, each of the more distinct support levels is closer to $18K / 20K, hence why I am looking at different scenarios with a "bearish view" while price is in that price range. I believe the "higher low" attempt will be much deeper than what is currently offered on the daily time frame. To put it another way, despite the fact that this region makes structural sense for a higher low, there are no corresponding high time frame levels of support to backup that case, rendering it less persuasive. The daily and lower time frame price action must be particularly compelling for us to develop strong views in the absence of clear high time frame support levels. In the grand scheme of things, a range high breakout and a deeper monthly pullback would be obvious. We are aware that the market is retreating from multi-time frame resistance; therefore, in order to advance, we require favourable levels and/or price action. I believe that we are currently lacking of both, so best thing to do right now is to wait for confirmation on direction, and in the meantime, I will be looking at the LTFs for potential trades, whenever price reaches key levels and market gives us the signals for a trade opportunity. Trade with care!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by financialflagship
REASONS to be BULLISH on EthereumHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Here are a couple of reasons on why I believe more upwards price action is likely for ETH in the near term: From a trend line analysis, we observe the Bump and Run method which is a trend line based analysis trying to determine when a potential reversal may occur. The Bump and Run method is not a well know method amongst younger traders, but it usually signifies that significant reversals are about to occur. From a technical indicator analysis, we pull up the moving averages. As observed, the bear market was confirmed when ETHUSDT lost the 100d MA and since then, we can use a time analysis to determine which macro cycle is likely next. Considering that ETH is currently trading right on top of the 100d MA, it has been over 400 days since we recaptured the moving averages successfully. This makes it more likely to believe that upside potential is due soon, as opposed to the alternative. In another recent update on ETHUSDT, I discovered a fractal that points to similar price patterns that played out a few years ago: The above considered, I can't help but to be bullish on Ethereum ! _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
by CryptoCheck-
41
Quick Bitcoin "Spot ETF" Comparison ($BTC.X $MSTR $GBTC $BITO)Still as expected. NASDAQ:MSTR is a bit of a leveraged play... $BITO (so far) is still working out as the most pure spot play... and $GBTC yeah... there's Grayscale always in the news with the 40-50% sale. LOL Can you stomach the potential risk/reward of GBTC? Are we still using it as an informal technical indicator for coin movement? In my opinion, BITO is probably the smart choice for tax advantaged IRAs etc. Otherwise, just buy and hodl the actual coins in your cold wallet. Will revisit down the road. Good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by gr-
EW longterm analysis of coffee an shortterm outlookMost commodities are highly cyclical and don't develop in the usual 5-wave-patterns. In the long run commodity-chars look more like a series of succeeding 3-wave moves.Therefore a longterm EW analysis is difficult in a way makes no sense. Nevertheless I devoloped a longerm chart for coffee and a shorter term analysis with a seasonal chart as indicator. In the mid and longterm I expect coffee to work lower. The short term is a bit unclear. What I marked in the hourly chart as wave 4 doesn't look finished and also looks quite steep. On the other hand seasonality calls for a low around february 24. So we might see some fast moves in the following week. Unfortunately the latest CoT data is not available. The last available report showed a strong build up of long positions by the commercials. This build up preceded the sharp move up from january 24.When analysing commodities it is important to watch the CoT-report. Before entering a trade I would await the latest reports. Link to the longterm charts. images2.imgbox.com images2.imgbox.com
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by Sideshow83
1