Get started

Seasonality

Gold 4H insightsGold This has been stuck inside a tight range for some time now, since we had CPI & FOMC rates this week, gold has broken the low of the range however failed to continue higher. Weekly bullish swing structure, weekly pullback Daily bearish H4, stuck in a range, Thursday we can see there has been a strong bullish internal structure shift. Notice the 4 hour leg up has no inducement and the body has closed below the previous swing low. Seasonally we can see there is usually a sizeable pullback on gold during the middle of June before dropping off. My overall target for gold is to fill the daily gap, ideally before it resumes bullish momentum. 1984 is a key area to see if gold stays below this, we will likely see 1900. If gold breaks above 1984 and closes I will be considering the pullback is likely over and become bullish.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Innova_Chartist
1
Sp500 Forecast: Unusual day and last hope for bull 🧙‍♀️ On third Friday of March, June, September and December, most options and futures expire. Already today there will be a large quarterly expiration, popularly called "Quadruple Witching", In total there are 4 of them per year (at the end of each quarter). In last hour of a trading session, trading volume and market volatility usually increase sharply. 💫 As a rule, this is followed by a medium-term trend change or strengthening of the previous one. Since March expiration, SP500 has grown by as much as +10%! Almost 90% of this growth was provided by just few companies: NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:META . And since beginning of year, it has grown by +15%, that is, there has already been an increase in the growth trend. The whole quarter went up. For your convenience, I put the witches on chart. The picture clearly shows that magic happens on “witch days” and medium-term extremes of market 🪄 There is extreme greed in USA market right now - the perfect moment for a market reversal! At such moments, unjustified pumps are visible in some unprofitable companies: NYSE:SPCE , NYSE:AI , etc. If you are stuck in these papers, now is a good time to sell. But from next week you can already start wearing shorts, summer is coming ☀️🩳 Now, the US Ministry of Finance and FED are also playing on side of the bears, which are withdrawing liquidity from the market. Market reversal is 99% ready ✅ 🎯 Targets for a set of medium-term long positions: 4000p, 3800p. You can find even more profitable ideas in the profile header 🎩 If you are interested in analysis of any other asset - write in the comments and I will do it.
SP:SPXShort
by Dorado_Crypto
FOMC REPORT : Stocks, Bonds, BTC & GoldHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈📉 Did you miss the 2023 June 13/14 FOMC meeting? No worries, CryptoChecks' got you covered. Here's a summary of what happened and how the outcome of this meeting may affect the respective markets. First, let's clearly understand the FOMC meeting and it's importance to investors. The Federal Reserve, also known as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It guides the country's monetary policy and influences the economy. The Fed's announcements and statements are closely watched by traders and investors because they can have a significant impact on financial markets. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a committee within the Fed that makes decisions on monetary policy. It consists of twelve members, including the seven members of the Board of Governors and five Reserve Bank presidents. They meet eight times a year to discuss and set policies. FOMC meetings are important events for traders because any changes in interest rates can affect various economic factors, such as employment, inflation, and exchange rates. The meetings occur every six weeks, and some include a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and a press conference by the Fed Chair. Traders pay close attention to the Fed's decisions and statements because they provide valuable information about the state of the economy and future policy changes. Now, let's look at what was said in this FOMC meeting: The Federal Reserve decided to pause its series of interest rate hikes at its June meeting, following ten consecutive increases. While the central bank expressed optimism about curbing inflation, the battle is not yet over, and further rate hikes may be on the horizon. Important facts: 🏛 The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) announced that the federal funds target rate would remain unchanged within a range of 5.0% to 5.25% during the June meeting. This marks the first policy meeting since the start of the Fed's tightening cycle in March 2022 in which interest rates were not raised. 🏛 The Fed confirmed its plan to continue reducing its balance sheet by allowing up to $60 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off each month, employing quantitative tightening to combat inflation. 🏛 Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the challenges during the press conference and highlighted the uncertainties surrounding the effects of monetary policy on the economy and potential credit tightening headwinds. Despite the pause, it does not indicate the completion of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, and further increases may be necessary. 🏛 The Fed has been attempting to navigate the challenge of curbing inflation without causing a recession by gradually raising interest rates. Higher rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, slowing down economic activity. 🏛 The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.1% annually in May, down from the 4.9% gain in April, which was the highest in 40 years. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, increased by 4.7% in April, slightly up from March but lower than the 2022 peak of 5.3%. The long-term target for core PCE inflation is 2%. 🏛 The tight U.S. labor market has posed challenges in the fight against inflation. In May, the U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, and wages increased by 4.3% year-over-year. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% but remained near historic lows. 🏛 Powell indicated that further rate increases might be necessary to gradually bring inflation down to the 2% target. _____________________________ Overall, the potential impact on stocks, commodities, and bonds could look as follow: Stocks: The impact on stocks can be more nuanced. In general, a steady interest rate environment can be positive for stocks. Lower rates can make equities more attractive as an investment option compared to bonds or other fixed-income assets. It can encourage borrowing for business expansion and investment, potentially boosting corporate earnings and stock prices. However, if the market was anticipating a rate cut or an increase, a decision to keep rates unchanged might cause some short-term volatility or adjustments in stock prices as investors reassess their expectations. This could positively impact stock prices, especially in sectors that are sensitive to interest rates, such as technology, consumer discretionary, and housing. Commodities: When interest rates remain steady, it can provide stability and potentially support commodity prices. Lower interest rates generally make borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic activity and increase demand for commodities. Conversely, higher interest rates can have the opposite effect, potentially dampening demand and putting downward pressure on commodity prices. Bonds: The pause in interest rate hikes may be favorable for bond prices in the short term. When interest rates remain stable or decline, existing bonds with higher coupon rates become relatively more attractive, leading to increased demand and potentially higher bond prices. Lower interest rates also reduce borrowing costs for companies, which may improve their creditworthiness and decrease the risk of default, making corporate bonds more appealing to investors. Now, you may be wondering to yourself... despite the above; why is Gold (and BTC) falling instead of rising? 💭💭💭 EXTRA for EXPERTS: The fact that the US House of Representatives have passed US debt ceiling bill five days ahead of the deadline could be a reason behind the falling price of Gold. With this in mind, it becomes easier to see why the gold market could have slipped. Still, rampant inflation will probably keep a floor under the gold market and as such; a short term drop to next immediate support zone is the most probable. While the true utility of the metal as a hedge against rising prices is a subject of endless economic debate, many investors insist that it is. It’s notable that prices remain close to historic high levels despite much higher interest rates more or less everywhere. The backdrop of war in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, and the durability of post-covid recovery are also clearly supportive of perceived ‘haven assets’ like gold, silver and bitcoin. Is it possible that the large, corporate investors are just countertrading the bullish retail investors in the commodities market at this point? The odds of a July rate hike are at about 61%, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Investors anticipate a 61.5% chance of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by a quarter point at its July 25-26 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The metric hasn’t moved much since Tuesday, even as the central bank indicated in its dot plot on Wednesday that two more rate hikes are coming up. To understand the relationship between commodities, cryptocurrencies, bonds, and stocks can help you clearly plan your next move after the FOMC meeting. Commodities and Stocks: Inverse Relationship: Historically, there has been an inverse relationship between commodity prices and stock prices. When commodity prices rise, it can lead to higher production costs for companies, affecting profit margins and potentially dampening stock performance. Conversely, when commodity prices decline, it can lower input costs for companies, potentially benefiting their profitability and supporting stock prices. Cryptocurrencies and Stocks: Limited Relationship: Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, have gained prominence as a separate asset class and are not directly tied to traditional stock markets. As such, the relationship between cryptocurrencies and stocks is generally limited. However, during periods of market volatility or significant news events, there can be some short-term correlations as investors seek alternative assets or sentiment spills over from one market to another. But in terms of long-term correlations, the two asset classes have shown relatively independent behavior. Bonds and Stocks: Inverse Relationship: Bonds and stocks typically exhibit an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, bond yields increase, making fixed-income investments more attractive relative to stocks. This can lead to a shift in investor preferences from stocks to bonds, potentially putting downward pressure on stock prices. Conversely, when interest rates decline, bond yields decrease, making stocks relatively more attractive, which can contribute to higher stock prices. The relationship between bonds and commodities is typically more complex and can be influenced by several factors: Inflation Expectations: Commodities are often considered an inflation hedge because their prices tend to rise during inflationary periods. When inflation expectations increase, commodity prices may go up, which can lead to higher inflation-adjusted yields on bonds. In this case, there may be a positive correlation between commodities and bond yields. Economic Growth: Commodities, especially those related to industrial sectors like energy and metals, are sensitive to economic growth. When the economy is booming, demand for commodities tends to rise, potentially leading to higher prices. This can be associated with higher inflation expectations and upward pressure on bond yields. Hence, there can be a positive correlation between commodities and bond yields during periods of economic expansion. Safe-Haven Demand : Bonds, especially government bonds, are considered safe-haven assets that investors flock to during times of uncertainty or market turbulence. In contrast, commodities, which are more directly influenced by supply and demand dynamics, may not exhibit the same safe-haven characteristics. Therefore, during risk-off periods when investors seek safety, there can be an inverse relationship between commodities and bond yields. Interest Rates and Opportunity Cost: Changes in interest rates can impact both bonds and commodities. When interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding commodities, which do not pay interest or dividends, increases. This can potentially lead to downward pressure on commodity prices. Conversely, when interest rates decline, the opportunity cost of holding commodities decreases, which can be supportive of commodity prices. In this case, there can be an inverse relationship between bond yields and commodity prices. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We appreciate your support ! CryptoCheck _____________________ AMEX:SPY TVC:US10Y TVC:GOLD INDEX:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT NYSE:GOLD CURRENCYCOM:GOLD
AMEX:SPY
by CryptoCheck-
29
The ROAD to DOGE Dogecoin - A monthly time analysis - 35 month Decline / Consolidation Period - Current D/C period ends in April 2024 - Whether the ATH from prior cycle is reached or not, time will tell. That will require lower pennant exit. - Upper pennant breach, get in. My prior TOTAL 2 and TOTAL 3 analysis of the altcoin market suggested altcoin season would not start until between Dec 2023 and Mar 2024. We now have a chart for DOGE that suggests a good window for entry of a trend would be April 2024. You can really see why so many pundits are requesting you to hold back on Altcoin allocation until later in the cycle when probability is in your favor. Nothing is guaranteed here. We are looking for more probable outcomes and time patterns can help us time the trade with less risk. IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT DOGE IS ONE OF THE FEW PROOF OF WORK CHAINS THATS BROKEN OFF FROM BTC WITH A LONG HISTORY OF PROOF OF WORK WITH LITECOIN AND A FEW OTHERS. DO NOT WRITE IT OFF. AS SILLLY AS IT IS, ITS SILLINESS SELLS AND ITS BACKED BY A PROOF OF WORK ALGO THATS STOOD THE TEST OF TIME AND RESULTED IN BTC BECOMING THEE GREATEST ASSET OF THE DECADE. PAY ATTENTION TO PROOF OF WORK COMMODITIES, THEY WILL NEVER BE SECURITIES. PUKA
BITTREX:DOGEUSD
by PukaCharts
ASPI Stock Swing Trading Idea - Capturing Sellside Liquidity andGreetings, traders! Today, I bring you a compelling swing trading idea for ASPI stock. After carefully analyzing the chart, I have identified significant market dynamics indicating an opportunity to capitalize on sellside liquidity and a market structure shift. To enter this trade, I recommend considering a position at approximately 50% of the fair value gap. It is crucial to place a stop loss order below the consolidation to manage risk effectively. Now, let's discuss the potential take profit levels: First Partial: Exit a portion of the position at 0.3920. Second Partial: Consider taking profits at 0.4381. Third Partial: Aim for an exit at 0.5476. Furthermore, it is essential to note that the trade has the potential for a full close at 0.62, strategically positioned just before an actual gap on the H1 time frame. Remember to adapt your strategy based on the market's movements and always adhere to proper risk management practices. Best of luck with your trading endeavors! Disclaimer: This trading idea is solely based on technical analysis and should be thoroughly evaluated before making any trading decisions.
NASDAQ:ASPILong
by yura_trades
Bought 12,811 Ada for the Long TermCardano provides a potential long term play that will benefit the holders as many other Cryptocurrency Scams come to light, they fail and many people are left wondering why cant I have a fair chance of picking winners. Cardano offers a chance to redeem your view on Cryptocurrency as Midnight launches. The old way of investing into Cryptocurrency was always about good projects. As stories like Logan Paul's NFT, DNP3's Clucoin, Memecoins, and the various Ponzi Scheme 1%, 10%, 20% daily scams that prey on people that are getting into Cryptocurrency. Even Crypto Exchanges are failing so move offchain. "Midnight will be a data protection-based blockchain that safeguards sensitive commercial and personal data, protecting fundamental freedoms of association, commerce, and expression for developers, companies, and individuals." Bought 12,811 Cardano for AVG. Price of $0.288 last month. I believe this is a let's fly moment for Bitcoin and Cardano.
Long
by sniperfox2021
2
GBPJPY Upside PotentialHey Traders! 👋 For Day 27/100 of our challenge, we will look at GBPJPY for upside potential this week/month Technicals: - Overall uptrend - Breaking into a new high - Currently in impulse phase - Expecting pullback towards 174.0/5 - Targeting daily key level 176 - Idea invalid if 172.6 breaks Other technicals: - Seasonality forecasts more upside this month - Retail traders at 90% short (trade against) That's it for today! Let's start the week off well by ticking off all your trading routine tasks. I believe in you 🥂
Long
by rob_WRLD_
2
Optimism Seasonality Trade 150-200xIntroduction It seems like every year some crypto absolutely explode upwards the first 10 days or so of the year and many of them get slapped back to the ground and even end up lower than their starting points while others just seem to continually moon. Those cryptos grab a lot of attention for the whole market and they end up being one of the momentum trades for the first half of the year. As they cool off other momentum trades pick up. For some comparison I am going to compare the current state of Optimism to Matic in 2021 and then compare the bull runs of Matic to Solana. Similarities Between OP and Matic at the New Year Price really tight on multi month consolidation triangles. Accordingly, price tight to 20 period SMA The volatility stop suggest price is going to break to the upside Log MACD and Histogram action really tight around zero Most importantly, both were new coins All of these suggest that a big move is coming. I have some fib-based targets I am looking at and have already set take profits. When the Log MACD starts to show some bearish divergence, I may be closing my trade manually because my target isn't getting reached. Bearish divergence on the Log MACD on the 3-day interval is pretty powerful And, less you think I am crazy, here is the Matic fib draw. And I think the current OP formation is stronger than the Matic formation was. Comparing Matic & Solana Last Bull Run Two of the major players last bull run were Matic and Solana. Both had very big January moves (like I hope OP to have) but they behaved differently on the way up. Matic was more bullish out of the gates and went 125x very quickly over the course of just 5 months. During that same time Solana only went 40x. Now, most the times the trend is your friend until the end so you would have hoped MATIC would have had even more upside but no. It double topped. Then the relatively humble Solana went bonkers and had a total move of 200x and was able to set a higher high when MATIC was double topping. My target for OP is roughly a 170-185x from here which puts it closer for the 9 month move and not the 5 month move. If that is the case, then is it is more likely there will be a month-month consolidation like Solana had and then the majority of the move will happen. Of course, if my OP position is up 125x in a matter of 5-6 months I will be more than happy to find something else to rotate into, even if it doesn't hit my 180x target Closing thoughts There are very view going I see poised like I see OP. OP is different because it went sideways while many coins were shedding value. The top runners of 2021 are on my watch list, not my trade list. I think they still have 9-18 months to consolidate from their runs. Of course, the 2021 top runners are not new coins anymore.
MLong
by This_Guhy
23
Gold weekly supply & demand viewsGold Monthly we are still bullish, recently making an all time high on yellow metal. Weekly within the larger weekly range, we technically are in a bearish pullback (mechanically) using supply and demand zones failing to show this. Inside bars being used as weekly pullbacks as price fails to take previous candles high or low. Weekly inside range, gold stayed within the previous weeks range showing accumulation of orders & building liquidity. Once a weekly inside bar candle has been printed, expect price to expand out of this with volume. Note the weekly opening gap, this is likely a draw on liquidity since the yellow metal has swept liquidity from the weekly highs. Typically after a large bullish run, taking strong liquidity is a signal price may retrace. I would like to see price retrace to this opening gap and trade through it before looking for further highs. Daily we have been building buyside and sellside liquidity. Strong moves intraday however respecting supply and demand zones. FOMC rate release and CPI figures will be important this week to take buy side and sell side liquidity. Once the market has been manipulated next week, we can see how price unfolds. Seasonally gold tends to sell off in June which is so far proving to be successful, with there being a reasonable uptick in the middle of the month. This aligns nicely with the upcoming news releases.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Innova_Chartist
2
Forecast completed by Sp500 ✅ Trees have grown to high sky?As we predicted earlier in the short-term forecast, the Sp500 index reached 4300 points, although not many people believed in it. Now there is euphoria and the FOMO effect: money from private investors has already flowed into US stocks. There is extreme greed in the market! And how greed ends in the market - all more or less experienced investors know ... Small oversold companies still have a large number of shorts, which means that there is a high probability of fast short squeezes from +20 to +80%! Don't buy stocks just because they've gone up a lot! Now is not the time to do that. What to expect next from the Sp500? 🔮 Unfortunately, the situation is not in favor of growth for the index. In the US, the government debt ceiling has been raised, which means that the US Treasury Department will borrow $1-2 trillion until the end of September 2023. Also now there is a withdrawal of liquidity from the Fed - all this together will play a negative role on SP:SPX . In the late month, the index grows by only 5-7 companies, this shows the weakness of the index. The shares of the IT sector look the best. But deteriorating conditions in the US economy will weigh heavily on these stocks. 🔰 According to Sp500 forecast 4000p, and then 3800p. You can find even more profitable ideas in the profile header 🎩 If you are interested in analysis of any other asset - write in the comments and I will do it.
SP:SPXShort
by Dorado_Crypto
Only a few days left before rocket! Latecomers are not welcom 🙅LTC coin continues its slow upward movement for past 7 months, while most of crypto market is in a bear market. The main reason for growth of this coin is next halving, which will happen in about 2 months. Check out BINANCE:LTCUSDT chart, which shows almost the entire trading history for this coin. As you can see, the price of LTC started to rise a few months before the halving: 1. Halving 2015. The price started rising 126 days before the halving. Moreover, the price grew for 77 days and then went to correction for 49 days. After that, there was a halving. 2. Halving 2019. The price started rising 238 days before the halving. Moreover, the price grew for 189 days and then went to correction for 49 days. After that, there was a halving. 3. Halving 2023. The price started rising 280 days before the halving. The rest of the data is still unknown. With the naked eye, there is a clear trend that the price is rising before the halving. However, this year the price of the coin is in no hurry to grow, and there is not much time left! Even more interesting is that each cycle of the beginning of growth before the halving comes later. But what remains unchanged in history is that the beginning of the growth correction comes 49 days before the halving. Also note that pre-halving growth is historically over 500%! Ticker: $LTC/USDT Buy market order: 92,5$ Goals: 105$, 132$ , 180$ Growth potential: up to 200% by the end of the year. Write in the comments on what other assets you want to get an analysis 🔍 If you are interested in receiving promising ideas on market, dont forget subscribe to channel! In profile you will find a lot of interesting things.
Long
by Dorado_Crypto
💡 SPX Seasonality: Sell in May and Go Away. Here's Memorial DayMemorial Day (originally known as Decoration Day) is a federal holiday in the United States for honoring and mourning the U.S. military personnel who have died while serving in the United States Armed Forces. For nowadays, it is observed on the last Monday of May, and this year it is observed on May 29, 2023. Memorial Day is considered a U.S. stock market holiday, which means the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange will be closed Monday, May 29. What is Sell in May and Go Away? Sell in May and Go Away refers to a well-known adage in the business and financial world. The phrase refers to an investment strategy for stocks based on the theory that the stock market underperforms in the four-month period between May and October (since June until September). In contrast, the 3-months period since November and until January sees much stronger stock market growth. For many past years I used many other websites to analyze seasonality of major stocks, indices, Fx pairs and commodities. Thanks to TradingView community and its awesome @tradeforopp wizard, the script Seasonality has changed the rules . As it described on Indicator webpage , This Seasonality indicator is meant to provide insight into an asset's average performance over specified periods of time (Daily, Monthly, and Quarterly). How the Sell in May and Go Away Strategy Works If investors follow the Sell in May and Go Away strategy, they sell stocks at the End of May (or during the late spring) and have the proceeds held in cash. Then, the investors would invest again in early October (or in the late autumn). That means, the investors would avoid holding stock during the summer months. History of Sell in May and Go Away 👉 “Sell in May and Go Away” has its origins in England or, more specifically, in London’s financial district. The original phrase was “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day,” with the latter event referring to a horse race. 👉 Established in 1776, the St. Leger Stakes is one of the most well-known horse races in England, being the last leg of the British Triple Crown and is run at the Doncaster Racecourse in South Yorkshire in September of every year. In its original context, the adage recommended that British investors, aristocrats, and bankers should sell their shares in May, relax and enjoy the summer months while escaping the London heat, and return to the stock market in the autumn after the St. Leger Stakes. 👉 In the U.S., some investors have adopted a similar strategy by refraining from investing during the period between Memorial Day in May and Labor Day in September. Relevant Statistics and Considerations 👉 Historical data have generally supported the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage over the many years. The S&P 500 Index has recorded a cumulative three-month average annualized return of more than 10% in the period between November to January, based on the statistics data collected over the past 151 years. 👉 At the other side, S&P500 an average annualized gain is about Zero between May and October (June till September), based on the same statistics data collected over the past 151 years. 👉 Seasonal factors play an important role here, as end-of-year bonuses and the Santa Claus Rally, which refers to the stock market’s tendency to rally over the last few weeks of December into the first few months of the new year. Some theories behind it include increased holiday shopping, optimism and morale fueled by the Thanksgiving Day, winter holidays, or investors settling their books before going on holiday. February and March are relatively mild in terms of growth. The stock market could lifts in April and May due to the anticipated release of the first-quarter reports (for example, like after recently announced Q1'23 NASDAQ:NVDA report). 👉 In contrast, the summer time tends to be less optimistic, with first-quarter results over and many people spending less time paying attention to stocks as they go on summer vacation. In addition, specifically in election years, there tends to be a weakness of the stock market in September due to the uncertainty of the election results. The conclusion 👉 It should be noted that returns have often varied in different time periods, and there have been many exceptions. 👉 However the upper chart (SPX Seasonality) clearly illustrates that based on the statistics data collected over the past 151 years, the timeframe since June until September, averagely is the worst time to invest into SP500 Index, while June and September are the worst performer months over the all history of S&P500 since 1870s. 👉 Memorial Day could be considered as a starting point for the strategy, where the negative return of the following business day (or business week in a case of no significant change) after Memorial Day usually predicts the further stock market trends and directions until October (begin of fourth quarter).
CBOE:SPX
by Pandorra
4
Demystifying Corn Demand, Supply, and SeasonalityCorn is a versatile crop. It is used in a variety of ways. Corn is a major source of food for humans and animals. It is also an input in industrial products, such as ethanol and plastics. According to the FAO, in the past year, over 1.1 billion tons of corn was produced worldwide. Gross production value stood at $192 billion, second only to sugarcane (1.8B tons) by volumes and to rice production ($332B) by value. Previously , we highlighted that a bumper US harvest is expected to send corn prices tumbling. This paper is a primer on Corn. It describes demand and supply dynamics and delves into the usage of the crop, its price behaviour and seasonality, among others. Corn is an integral part of human diet. It is consumed both as staple food and in processed products. It is also an important animal feed source. Corn is used in the production of ethanol fuel, plastics, adhesives, and pharmaceutical products. It is also a primary ingredient in alcoholic beverages. SEASONALITY IN CORN PRICES The world’s largest corn producer is the US, representing 32% of production, followed by China with 23%. In October, harvest season in the US overlaps that in China, pushing corn prices to their lowest during the year. Based on data observed over the last 17-years, the seasonal impact of harvest in the US and Chinese on corn prices is clear. Corn price pop through the first half of the year and then plunge through Q3 until start of Q4 when the crops in the US, China, and Brazil commence harvesting. Based on front-month corn futures, the average prices of corn have ranged between 200 USc/bushel to 800 USc/bushel. Over the last 17-years, with the exceptions of six years (2008, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2021 and 2022), Corn prices tend to be stable through the year underpinned by stable demand and robust steady supply. However, external shocks such as the global financial crisis, pandemic, and the adverse weather conditions cause outsized impact leading to large price volatility. Based on CME front month corn futures prices, the heat map below shows an upward trend in corn prices from December until May which is the period immediately after US and China harvesting seasons. This phase also represents the corn planting season. As harvesting begins, corn prices tend to plunge from June until September before starting to recover. On average, based on the analysis into corn prices during the last 17 years, February, October, December, and April are months when corn prices turn bullish. While corn prices are most bearish during the months of June, July, and March. As corn is a hard crop which can grow in various climatic conditions, most countries have ample domestic production to match their needs with few relying on imports. Consequently, marginal demand from importers can have an outsized impact on prices. China is the largest importer despite huge domestic production. Other major importers include Brazil, Mexico, North Africa, European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. WHAT DRIVES CORN DEMAND? Demand for corn is chiefly from animal feed followed by food and industrial use. Corn’s high protein and carbohydrate content makes it suitable animal feed for cattle, pigs, and chickens. Unsurprisingly, the US, representing 26% of global consumption, and China, representing 25% of global consumption, are also the largest consumers of corn due to their large livestock populations. The quantity of corn used for feed has remained largely unchanged ~5 billion bushels, since the late 2000’s. Another major demand driver is Ethanol production. Ethanol has many industrial uses, the foremost of which is gasoline blending. Ethanol complements gasoline as they are mixed to create a cleaner burning and higher performing transportation fuel. The demand for corn-ethanol mirrors gasoline demand. This year, the IEA expects 2% higher demand for Crude Oil and its by-products. Consequently, the USDA expects ethanol production to rise by the same margin. Corn supply used for Ethanol production rose sharply in the late 2000’s but has since plateaued around 40%. At the same time, share of corn consumption for feed declined from 60% to 40%. This was accommodated through higher corn production. Although not as significant as feed and ethanol, demand for human consumption of corn is another major contributor. Humans consume corn directly as cereal and in its processed forms. Corn can be processed into multiple by-products including Corn Flour, Corn Starch, Corn Syrup, Corn Oil, and Dextrose. Corn is present in most foods consumed by humans in one form or another. Corn flour like wheat flour is used for cooking and baking. Corn Starch is used as a thickening agent and binder for food and pharmaceutical production. Corn Syrup (also high-fructose corn syrup) is a cheap and effective sweetener created from corn starch used in the production of processed food as well as beverages such as Coca Cola. Dextrose is a sugar substitute used as an artificial sweetener and preservative. CORN INVENTORIES ENSURE SUPPLY YEAR ROUND Although corn supply is cyclical based on harvest levels, demand remains strong year-round. Corn inventories play a huge role in ensuring availability even months after the harvest. Excess corn that is not consumed in the year is carried over to the next to ensure that a baseline supply is always available. These carryover stocks are managed carefully by the USDA using regular demand and supply estimates that it publishes in a monthly WASDE report. Changes in carryover stock mirror supply-demand trends. The USDA generally maintains carryover stocks between 1-2 billion bushels. Last year, the US ended the year with 1.2 billion bushels of corn, sharply lower from the 1.9 billion bushels in 2020-21. However, a bumper harvest this year signals that carryover stocks from the current harvest season and marketing year are expected to surge 56% to 2.2 billion bushels. CORN SUPPLY, PRODUCTION, DEMAND AND PRICES IN 2023 Corn prices in 2023 have broken their seasonal trend with bumper harvest expected. In their general seasonal trend, as seen over the past 15 years, corn prices rise during the first half of the year as supplies from the previous year’s harvest start to get depleted. Prices fall sharply following the start of harvest season. However, corn’s price since the start of 2023 shows a divergence from this seasonal trend. Prices are sharply (-12%) lower YTD. This is due to strong planting in the US as well as weak import demand. USDA expects a record US corn harvest of 15.3 billion bushels this year. This is expected to lead to the highest levels of carryover stock since 2016-17. China’s imports and domestic production is expected to rebound sharply but is largely expected to be compensated for by huge carryover stocks in Brazil. Brazil is expected to be the largest corn exporter followed by the US. As such, harvests in both countries should be closely watched to identify shifts in projections. In case harvest in either country is lower than expected, it would not be able to match import demand from China which would lead to higher prices. Overall, USDA expects 27% lower average price for corn in 2023 at USc 480/bushel. This will lead to far higher global trade and consequently higher trading volumes in Corn futures. USDA’s WASDE REPORT IS AN IMPORANT RESOURCE FOR CORN TRADERS As stated, the USDA’s WASDE report is a critically important resource for investors. Specifically, the May WASDE report is vital for Corn as this is the start of the planting season and estimates in this report form the basis for the next marketing year’s outlook for major crops such as Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans. WASDE includes an outlook summary for each crop as well as statistics measuring the estimated demand, supply, exports, and carryover stocks for major countries as well as different regions within the US . The 2023 May WASDE report showed expectations of record global corn production as well as consumption. However, consumption is expected to lag production leading to larger ending stocks compared to last year. With higher ending stocks, supply of corn is expected to remain stable year-round. This is bearish for corn prices. Understanding the supply-demand characteristics in the WASDE report can equip investors with a long-term price outlook. Still, it is equally important to keep track of the market on an ongoing basis due to the myriad of factors affecting price as highlighted above. A summary of these is also given below. SIX KEY TAKEAWAYS In conclusion, the following key takeaways summarise this primer: 1. Corn is a versatile crop. It is a major source of food for humans and animals. 2. Gross production value of corn stood at $192 billion, second only to sugarcane (1.8B tons) by volumes and to rice production ($332B) by value. 3. US and China are the world's largest corn producers and consumers, representing over half of global corn production & consumption. 4. Corn prices are heavily influenced by the harvest season in US and China which overlaps between September and October. 5. Major demand sources for corn are animal feed, industrial use (especially ethanol production), and human consumption . 6. May WASDE report showed expectations of record production and consumption of corn and higher ending stocks, leading to lower prices. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mintdotfinance
4
The Bitcoin 5.3 Theory The Bitcoin 5.3 Theory The Bitcoin 5.3 Theory was discovered and propagated by Steve Courtney of Crypto Crew University. I wanted to create a chart that explained how the The Bitcoin 5.3 Theory works visually without to much complication. - The BTC 5.3 Theory has had an accuracy of 94% - 99% at predicting the Bitcoin All Time Highs (ATH) to date. - As shown in the chart the formula is as follows: Last Cycle Price Increase ÷ 5.3 x Price Low = Percentage increase to the next ATH. - I have shared a spreadsheet showing this on another platform, regardless the chart illustrates it. - The current projection is approximately $77,005 for the next ATM which is lower than what a lot of people are expecting. - The $80,000 level should be a focal point for us all factoring in the 100% long term Fibonacci extension level from the March 2020 lows is also $83,000. If you note any error or changes required please let me know, I have tried to get this as accurate as possible Puka
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by PukaCharts
1