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Seasonality

GBPCAD to 1.73 this weekHey Traders! 👋 For Day 42/100 of our challenge, we will look at GBPCAD long idea (based on off-chart data) Technicals: - Bullish structure with HH-HL forming - Expecting this structure to continue - Looking to go long on 1.715 break and retest - Weekly target at 1.73 - Invalid idea when 1.695 downside is breached PMT: - Seasonality: Bullish - Pattern predic.: Neutral - Trend: Bullish - Retail pos.: Bullish - COT: Bullish That's all for today. Been busy during the week. Will start posting daily again. Have a great mid-week 🥂
Long
by rob_WRLD_
Recession Timeframe Horizon Macro Monday (2) Potential Recession Time Horizon Below you will find a breakdown of how many months pass before a confirmed Economic Recession (shaded grey areas) after the yield curves first definitive turn back up towards the 0% level: 1) 13 Months (Dec 1978 – Jan 1980) 2) 9 Months (Nov 1980 – July 1981) 3) 16 Months (Mar 1989 – Jul 1990) 4) 12 Months (Mar 2000 – Mar 2001) 5) 22 Months (Feb 2006 – Dec 2007) 6) 6 Months (Aug 2019 – Mar 2020) 7) 4 Months so far (Mar 2023 - ????) Average Time frame: 13 months (reasonable time horizon would be 6 – 18 months). I consider the first definitive turn up towards the 0% level as no. 7 on the chart (March 2023). Since this date we have rolled over below the -1% level (see additional chart in comments). March 2023 appears similar to the bounce in Dec 1978 (No. 1 in the chart), it also rolled over to the lower sub -1% level. If we assumed a similar 13 month timeframe to recession commencement as in Dec 1978 of 13 months, which also aligns with our 13 month average above, we would be looking at April 2024 for a recession to commence. Interestingly 1978 - 1980 was a similar peak inflationary period known as the Great Inflation, a defining macroeconomic period of high inflation. You might be wondering, has a recession ever occurred in the month of April before? I personally thought this was a strange month but it has occurred in the past. In April 1960 a recession commenced and lasted 10 months to February 1961. The 1960 recession was mainly a result of an over-tight monetary policy whereby the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 1.75% in mid-1958 to 4% by the end of 1959 and maintained them at that level until June 1960. The Federal Reserves motive for raising interest rates and maintaining them was fear of high inflation (as in early 1951 inflation soared to +9.5%). Is it just me or is this all starting to sound a little too familiar? If we wanted to cater for all time scenarios in the chart and noted above (no. 1 - 6) we could argue that the start of a recession is possible at the earliest within 6 months (Sept 2023) and at the latest 22 months (Jan 2025). Also, the month of April 2024 has some eerie similarities to two prior recessions, the 1978 and 1960 Recessions. Lucky 13 Since World War 2 bear markets have on average taken about 13 months to reach their bottom and a further 26 months to recover their losses. Our average time before a recession would start is 13 months. It’s worth remembering that it could take an additional 13 months before a bottom is established and then 2 years or 26 months (2 x 13) of price action below the pre-recession price highs. Over 3 years is a long time to wait to recover losses. It would be pertinent to start deleveraging or increasing your hedge from the 6 month mark (Sept 2023 in this case) as subsequently the likelihood of a 3 year period below the Sept 2023 price levels increase as each month passes. For reference the S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33% during bear markets over the avg. timeframe of 13 months to the bottom. I actually find it very hard to accept that a recession is possible in the near term (within 6 - 12 months) and I would in fact argue against it, however I cannot explain away the data in the chart which speaks for itself and warrants at least some consideration & caution. Nothing is a guarantee and maybe this time it will be different, especially factoring in the amount of unprecedented liquidity added to the market in recent years, sticky inflation and financial supports provided to systemically important banks. All the chart really indicates is a probable window for a recession to start some time between Sept 2023 – Jan 2025 and no guarantees. The rule of 13 is worth remembering, simply from a timing perspective (before and during a recession) as it may help your timing. Based on two similar periods in history, the 1978 and 1960 recessions suggest the month of April 2024 may be a key date. Again, no guarantees. It is also worth noting that for the last six recessions, on average, the announcement of when a recession started was up to 8 months after the fact…meaning we will have no direct indication when a recession starts, however the un-inversion of the yield curve (back above the 0% level) and a rise in unemployment will be the early tells, so these are worth paying attention too. We will keep you posted on any sudden changes in these metrics. I hope the chart is helpful, provides one perspective of which there are many, and can help time and frame the situation we currently find ourselves in. NO GAURANTEES, just probable timeframes that may be worth paying attention too. PUKA List of Recessions: 1. COVID-19 Recession (February - April 2020) 2. The Great Recession of 2008 (December 2007 - June 2009) 3. The September 11 Recession (March - November 2001) 4. The Gulf War Recession (July 1990 - March 1991) 5. The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession (July 1981 - November 1982) 6. The Energy Crisis Recession (January - July 1980) 7. The Nixon Recession (December 1969 - November 1970) 8. The “Rolling Adjustment” Recession (April 1960 - February 1961) 9. The Eisenhower Recession (August 1957 - April 1958) 10. The Post-Korean War Recession (July 1953 - May 1954)
FRED:T10Y2Y
by PukaCharts
5
Exploring Seasonality in Crude Oil PricesWhat rises, must fall. What comes down, goes up again. This rings most true for crude oil prices. Both secular and seasonal trends are at play in crude oil prices. Demand for oil moves in tandem with global economic activities. Key secular trends impacting oil markets over this decade was covered in our previous paper . These range from falling demand from developed markets, and rising demand in emerging economies, among others. While secular trends unravel over a longer time, seasonal cyclical effects can be observed over a short term. This paper will explore consumption patterns driving annual seasonality in crude oil prices. In Part two of this paper, we will illustrate trading crude oil derivatives to harness opportunities arising from seasonality. CRUDE OIL SUPPLY CHAIN: AN OVERVIEW Gluts and shortages, economic growth and contractions, and geopolitics impact crude oil prices. Different events impact various segments of the supply chain. The global crude oil supply chain is complex and intricate. It can broadly be classified into Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream. Upstream and midstream sectors drive crude oil supply. Upstream outage or shortage affects available supply which are sometimes evened out by the midstream through adequate inventories. Downstream and midstream drives demand. End consumer demand is observed in distribution. Refineries adjust output based on their margins which in turn is derived from crude oil prices and refined product prices. WHAT DRIVES SEASONALITY? Seasonality in demand for refined products impact crude oil prices. Higher demand for refined products (gasoline, diesel, and kerosene) is observed in summer because of travel. While lower supply is caused by maintenance linked pauses in downstream during winter. Crude oil inventory shifts can be segmented into four phases, namely: (1) Inventory Build Up (Feb - May), (2) Summer Travel Spikes Demand (Jun - Aug), (3) Demand Shrinks & Supply Contracts (Sep - Nov), and (4) Winter led demand spike (Dec - Jan). This seasonality is evident in US crude oil inventory shifts as exhibited below. Impact of seasonality is not always directly apparent or predictable. Why? Crude oil is so deeply intertwined with global economics. Shocks, if any, can have an outsized impact on prices and volatility. Also, supply cuts from majors oil producers and GDP shifts in major consumers have jumbo effect on prices. Consequently, other factors moderate or nullify impact of seasonality. The below chart shows the average price behaviour of Crude oil from the start of each year over the past twenty (20) years by using CME front month crude oil futures price data from TradingView. Orange bars in the above chart represents average monthly price change measured over last twenty years. Meanwhile, the white bar shows monthly price change for the same period but after excluding the outliers. Outlier years include 2008 (global financial-crisis), 2020 (pandemic), and 2022 (Russia-Ukraine conflict). Crude prices go bullish on higher demand by refineries starting in March and continue to rise through the summer months as demand for refined products remains high driven chiefly by increased travel. However, by August, sufficient refined product inventories dampen demand. With refineries slowing for maintenance, crude demand declines leading to a moderation in price. Finally, a small uptick is observed in December as demand starts to rise again during peak winter. The average monthly returns for each month are displayed below. However, note that the standard deviation for these averages is non-trivial indicating that month-of-the-year effect on crude oil prices is uncertain and, in many cases, statistically insignificant. This conclusion is also arrived at based on various academic research papers. METHODS TO HARNESS CRUDE OIL SEASONALITY Three most common methods to harness gains from seasonality include: a. Futures (highest upside and highest downside), b. Call options (upside limited relative to futures and limited downside risk), and c. Call and/or Put Spreads (limited upside and limited downside). Traders can deploy options to express a directional view with unlimited upside and limited downside. In a long options position, the downside is limited to the premium paid. Conversely, a short position in options involves selling an option. This offers upside limited to the premium collected but exposed to unlimited downside. TRADE SET UP ILLUSTRATIONS From July until November, based on historical observations over the last twenty years, crude oil prices tend to fall. We could set up a trade using the December contract month of CME Micro Crude Oil Futures which expires on Nov 17th: 1. Short Futures: Short Futures position in MCL Dec 2023 contract (MCLZ3) at USD 70 per barrel with the anticipation that prices will fall by November. 2. Long Puts: Long Put options on MCLZ3 at a strike of USD 69 per barrel with a hypothetical options premium of USD 3 per barrel. 3. Bear Call Spread: Bear Call Spread with a net premium of USD 1 per barrel on MCLZ3 comprising of a short call option at a strike of USD 71 a barrel (collecting options premium of USD 5 per barrel) and a long call option at a strike of USD 73 a barrel (paying options premium of USD 4 per barrel). The Bear Call Spread profits a fixed amount equal to the net premium when both options expire out of the money. When only the short call options expires in the money, the position loses by having to pay the options buyer. However, when both options expire in the money the profit from the long option partially offsets this loss resulting in a capped downside. Each CME Micro Crude Oil Futures contract represents one hundred barrels of crude oil. Accordingly, the above three trade set ups are illustrated across various price scenarios as shown below. Please note that these illustrations do not include (a) transaction costs comprising of exchange trading and clearing costs and brokerage fees, and (b) capital costs associated with margins required for establishing these positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mintdotfinance
4
Similarity between LTC halving and BTC halvingThe Litecoin (LTC) halving and Bitcoin (BTC) halving share some similarities, as they both involve a reduction in the block reward for miners. However, there are also some differences between the two events. Block Reward Reduction: Both LTC halving and BTC halving result in a reduction of the block reward. In the case of BTC, the block reward is halved approximately every four years, while for LTC, it occurs every four times the number of blocks mined compared to Bitcoin. This means that LTC halving happens roughly four times more frequently than BTC halving. Supply Reduction: Both halvings aim to reduce the rate at which new coins are introduced into circulation. By reducing the block reward, the inflation rate decreases, leading to a more controlled and limited supply of new coins. This reduction in supply can potentially impact the price of the respective cryptocurrencies, as it can create a scarcity effect. Market Anticipation: Leading up to both LTC halving and BTC halving, there is often a period of market anticipation and speculation. Traders and investors closely monitor these events, expecting them to have a positive impact on the price due to the reduced supply. This anticipation can drive up the price in the months preceding the halving. Miner Incentives: Both halvings affect the incentives for miners. As the block reward decreases, miners receive fewer coins for their mining efforts. This reduction in rewards can lead to a shift in mining profitability and may impact the overall mining ecosystem. Miners may need to upgrade their equipment or adjust their strategies to maintain profitability. Despite these similarities, it's important to note that BTC and LTC are separate cryptocurrencies with their own unique characteristics and ecosystems. While they share some fundamental concepts, they also have differences in terms of adoption, market capitalization, community, and development, among other factors. Therefore, the impact and significance of the halving events can differ for each cryptocurrency.
BINANCE:LTCUSDShort
by NETchapter
2
Why ZEC (ZCASH) Could outperform all other coinsName PriceUSD Marketap Circulatingupply Maxupply Totalupply ATH ATL BTCNP ATH/PRc ATL/PRc "Zcash ZEC" 29.58 450,671,988 16,328,269 21,000,000 16,328,269 5941 18.94 24.88372019 200.872211 1.561774023 BTCNP is calculated as : CurrentPrice*(CirculatingSupply/CirculatingSupplyOfBTC). This shows the Price of the coin, when it would have the same Circulating Supply as like BTC. BTCNP von XRP: 1323 USD! BTCNP von ETH: 11719 USD! BTCNP von ZEC: 24 USD! With the above Formula you can compare all coins to BTC. You see above the basic data about zcash taken from Coinmarketcap.cap Max Supply and Totalsupply is smilar like BTC. So Zcash is scarse. AllTimeHigh/CurentPrice = 200 those times. So ZEC got 200 times cheaper than from its ATH, that means ZCASH is totaly oversold. AllTimeLow/CurrentPrice = 1,56m , that means Zcash is currently available to near ATL Prices. For BTC ATH/PRc=631299. That means bitcoint sells currectly to 631299-times Price of its ATL. That means Zcash is still very very cheap. The Pricerabge from current Price to ATH is 30 to 5941. Charts are usually symetrical and it appers to me that ZEC found its botto! So the the direction will be symetrical to the left side of the chart. So what are the targets: They are visible on the Chart: The range goes from 660% to 854000%. So I think that others will see those possibilities on the data too. So there is a lot of fantasy on this old darling of the coin community.
KRAKEN:ZECUSD
by hkmh
5
Gold H4 25th June InisightsGoldie June overall has been trading in a range, weekly inside bar created, price failed to take the high suggesting the supply is still in control. We have now finally broken lower than the previous week range and closed lower. H4 Interesting price action, the demand areas I have marked are creating some nice reaction points, still no solid break of structure on the H4 chart Would like to see gold trade to the daily gap I have marked, there are some very nice demand zones in confluence. Currently following orderflow on the higher time frame for higher probability trade direction Seasonally gold tends to be trading lower in the last week of June, so far this has aligned nicely with my technical analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Innova_Chartist
BKNG: Hidden Accumulation CuesThe big season for vacations starts this week as schools close, graduations begin, weddings increase, and families plan big vacations this year. BKNG has had HFTs attempting to sell it down several times but it holds within a sideways trend still. This implies hidden accumulation. If it breaks to the upside, then this sideways trend becomes support. BKNG must do as all other high-priced stocks have done: do a big split to lower the share price to $100 - 300. When the Board does so, the stock has more potential for runs up rather than down.
NASDAQ:BKNG
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader