Seasonality
$TOTAL3 & $OTHERS Alt Season Breakout vs $BTC.D !!!If you’re still wondering whether Alt Season is here or not, this is the only chart you need to see to prove it is.
BTC.D has been going down while CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 has broken previous ATH with CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS lagging a bit behind.
This shows the rotation from CRYPTOCAP:BTC -> Mid Caps -> Small Caps
Monetary policy, more importantly rate cuts, have signaled “Risk On”, and the market has responded accordingly.
MNMD 600% in 2025With Trump and RFK challenging the stronghold of big pharma, the suppression of psychedelic medicines may soon be over. Analysts have set a price target of $26. Market conditions and fresh speculative details render these companies highly volatile and speculative, as many are in trial phases and are losing money rather than profiting... for now.
Alt Market been super boringUntil Eth makes its run, alt coins tied to it for the most part will continue their boring pattern.
AI hype seems to have died down and Fetch will probably make a run, but a 2-4x on this coin is probably the most we will see. Hopefully I am wrong.
Keeping my eye peeled for the next faction of this market run up.
BTC Huge Gap!!! We going back to 75k?Hey guys!
Congrats all with BTC ATH and recent profits, I was not commenting the situation, because it was pretty clear, and we all know what was happening.
But also, as we know, even in the bull cycle have to be corrections and consolidations.
So here at the futures chart, we can see a huge gap around the healthy correction possible zone (max to 30%). Also, we have RSI oversold for sure and descending volumes.
Plus, in December there were no promises about decreasing US Interest rate, so possibly December can end up in this correction phase.
What's your thoughts about when and how much we could go? Let's chat in the comments =)
Is Now The Time To Call The Top?With a new higher high formed on the Dollar, which mitigated a monthly Order Block and weekly Fair Value Gap, is now the time to be asking whether the top is in and a major reversal is pending?
Personally, I say yes, but price action still needs to confirm this as we can always continue trading higher. On the daily we have minor and major swing points from which IRL can be mitigated before a continuation higher and for the time being I'll be monitoring the various points as per the analysis for signs of a continuation higher or
The subjectivity in my analysis stems from the fact that pairs are no longer trading in unison across the board with EU still tumbling lower with the Dollar while AU has begun shifting higher. UJ is not clear as it's exhibiting signs if going both higher and lower so monitoring further development will be key.
My bias for the WEEK is as follows:
DXY - LONG
EURUSD - SHORT
AUDUSD - LONG
GBPJPY - SHORT
USDJPY - LONG
Crypto 4-Year Cycle, Monthly ViewThis chart paints a macro view of the 4-year cryptocurrency cycle, which is based around the Bitcoin halving events. This should give you a general idea of when a bull run is likely to occur, but you should use many other indicators for actual buying/selling decisions.
A few quick notes on this chart:
-BTC, ETH, and DOGE USD pairs are displayed on this chart (the top crypto, the top L1, and the top meme coin).
-My definition of the the bull run is when BTC dominance begins to fall on the monthly chart. This is when things tend to go a bit parabolic for the rest of the market. The end of the bull run is marked by BTC dominance rising on the monthly chart.
-The vertical yellow lines represent every subsequent 12 bars/months post-halving.
-Dates are estimates as this chart is in the monthly timeframe. Results may vary in different timeframe views.
-There are many other factors that may impact the 4-year cycle, such as ETH/BTC valuations, ETH dominance, USDT dominance, quantitative easing/tightening, black swan events, federal funds rates, etc. - none of these are considered in this chart.
Enjoy! :)
Eyes on $NEIRO: Ready for a Move or a Setback ;)Time to start adding back some exposure to $NEIRO. It might be a day or two early on this one, as I anticipate a move on high caps, mostly CRYPTOCAP:BTC , just this week, but the setup looks good enough.
If it fails, I’ll look to jump in at 0.0017 and ride it towards ATHs. I’ll choose the levels accordingly.
Going in here with a clear invalidation below current lows.
Identifying cyclical opportunities in $HOOD for optionsNASDAQ:HOOD has been in a bull trend since June of 2022, and its price action has also been decently straight forward.
Notes about NASDAQ:HOOD 's price action -
1. Hood's cycle lengths from low to low, in this daily chart are not uniform.
2. However the trends in between the swing lows and highs are secular.
3. Hood has been forming base lows instead of V pattern lows.
How I'm trading $HOOD.
- Since the trend is bullish it is best to stick with call options looking for confirmation of a cycle low to get long.
- When NASDAQ:HOOD starts to form a base after a cyclical downtrend look for momentum to enter
- Once identifying a swing high, exit calls and allow the next secular downtrend to play out
- Each cycle consider if the macro tend for NASDAQ:HOOD is still bullish
- Own NASDAQ:HOOD shares
** The timing band on this chart is a general area based off of previous cycles I'm expecting a base low and will be looking to get long.
Bullish on NICKEL \o/After reaching its excessively high peak in March 2022, the price of nickel ( SHFE:NI1! ) entered a sustained correction phase. This correction brought the price down sharply to around $19,000 per ton. Following a brief upward correction, the price continued its downward movement.
Since early 2024, the price seems to have found its bottom at approximately $15,900 per ton. Currently, there is a consolidation phase at this level, with a support zone between $15,300 and $17,000 per ton appearing to hold.
Looking ahead, a bullish seasonality is expected from mid-January to mid-March. Additionally, the anticipated increase in demand for electric vehicles and electromobility by 2025 supports a more bullish outlook for nickel prices in the coming years.
BTC reached the local peak? 👀#Bitcoin distance from BMS
Below is the oscillator, which shows how far the price has moved away from the bull market support. Mostly when we are in the 2-3 year of the cycle, the mark on the oscillator 40 acts as resistance, which indicates a mid-cycle peak.
Can it be different this time?🤔
Let's imagine that the CRYPTOCAP:BTC ETF inflow will be greater and distort the situation, in this case, we have a second trend line that indicates a global peak, which, by the way, becomes lower every cycle, now this mark is around ~50 on the oscillator or 80k on the price chart. You can consider this mark a best-case scenario for a local peak.
💡Remember, a good investor does not rely on one scenario but is ready for any.
Soybean Meal Futures Spread : ZMN25-ZMQ25Excellent opportunity in this spread on soybean meal :
- Margin requirements are low, as intracommodity spreads often are.
- The spread is currently at -1 from its historical value of 1 in the 5-year average, and 0 in the 15-year average, and being long we have an additional favorable factor for more margin upwards
- This spread has been in profit 80% of the time over the past 15 years
- There is a very good trend in both averages and a trend duration of about 4 months
- The average Risk Reward Ratio over the last 5 years is 17.13
$COOKIE reminds me $SUSHI... this will be HUGE.Get ready for an explosive move! The recent patterns in $COOKIE are reminiscent of the incredible CRYPTOCAP:SUSHI rally we witnessed last year. With similar market conditions and strong community backing, I predict a potential rise of over 7000% .
Don't miss out on this opportunity – it's time to ride the wave and see your investments soar to new heights!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions."
Bitcoin's Super-cycle PredectionBitcoin is finalizing a motive wave (3) to mark the run's top.
A main corrective wave (4) shall start right after (3) and it shall last till Aug/ Sep of 2025 (a mini bear market).
A last motive wave (5) would happen after (4) that would probably last for another year
to end the 4 years super-cycle that started from Nov 2022.
Alt-season? Bitcoin BTC Dominance past cycles behavior analysis The best way to spot an altseason is looking at the Bitcoin BTC Dominance graph.
On this analysis, of the behavior of the Bitcoin BTC Dominance, I spotted in the graph , what happened on the last two cycles, 2017 and 2021, looking back to the 2013 BTC price top.
In the analysis I spotted three types of events:
All Time High (ATH)
Cycle Bottom
Attempts to break the past cycle's ATH
This brought me some interesting "coincidences" that leads to some insightful predictions.
My conclusion, so far, is that an All Time High breakout is a very important moment to the possible alt season beginning. One thing that should be considered is that the current cycle has some different characteristics as, probably in detail, all of them have. This means that maybe it could take some more time to the alt season start, as it did for the ATH be finally broken.
One thing I did'n mention in the video is that the BTC dominance has broken a theoretical downtrend line. That said, considering the end of the year calendar change that is a mentally important moment, I wouldn't be surprised if the altseason waits till January to pick up.
To be continued...