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Seasonality

USTECH 100 CFD MONTHLY MARKET MOVESObserve the importance of time in the market as it relates to monthly market moves coupled with dates of the month. Mid-Month as well as end of month are likely to be a reversal condition in the market. Last week of the month is normally a buy expansion model and first week of the month, the market is likely to retrace into a HTF POI before rallying. HTF bias married with monthly market moves always win. My expectation therefore would be for the market buy until end of month(observing 15250 level. If break above it will rally higher first before retracement) where it is likely to hit a reversal condition from the first of the month and retrace into a HTF POI before rallying. #StaySafe#TimeInMarket💙
BLACKBULL:NAS100Short
by NqabaNhantsi
1
Ever wonder why Aug and Sep are weak months?Ever wonder why the market is historically weaker in August and September? On August 15 interest on treasuries is paid from the Fed "other reserves" account which appears to briefly tighten central bank liquidity (normally adverse to risk assets during the QE/QT era). On September 15 the final quarterly tax payment for the fiscal year is due, which seems to be preceded by a brief drawdown. The combination of the 2 events this time of the year result in seasonal weakness. Looking at the years 2015 through 2022 we can observe that the market was: trending up leading into August 75% of the time, flat or down from 8/15 to 9/15 63% of the time, and finished the year higher than the 9/15 close 87% of the time. Additionally, since 1938 there are 14 years in which the market advances >10% through July that are followed by a negative August. They all finish the year higher, with an average rest of year performance of 9.9% (median 8.7%). This history suggests that the earlier part of September is a stronger time to take profit, or trim/exit any positions, while after the 15th should be favorable to accumulate or start new positions. Sources: This is a link to ANG Traders, a seeking alpha author that did a study on years 2016 to 2022. His analysis is incredible. seekingalpha.com This is a link to Ed Clissolds twitter post with the prior years with S&P advancing >10% through July. twitter.com This is a link to the seasonality chart created by EW_T. These seasonality charts have a bar that represents % of the month in positive territory and a number at the bottom that is the average gain/loss. www.tradingview.com
SP:SPX
by Ben_1148x2
2
BTC 3 scenarios hello traders, regarding days left to next halving which suitable enough for a sharp move. We're much more interested in buying Bitcoin! It has been long since we bought bitcoin and we aim to keep most of them. here by buying and selling I mean increasing and decreasing our cryptocurrencies basket volume. (for more information of halving read the related idea) In case of trading buying over 31750 is suggested. Also a reaction to 25500 could be a good reason to buy BTC. We don't suggest to buy on bottom of the bullish channel, since the 31500 level is really strong. If we see 25000 is well broken down, we will search for shorting reasons for only the next important level by half risk. best regards, Ali signals
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by AliSignals
Coal Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Neutral-Bullish AccumulationNewcastle Thermal Coal Futures breaking out of short-term downtrend + Neutral-Bullish Accumulation around 78.6% Fib Retracement. Still within larger downtrend after steep sell-off through later half of 2022 into 2023. (Coal) embers likely re-igniting due to recent China stimulus measures & other macro-economic influences, TBC. Highlighted preliminary Trading Range 174.05-129. On watch for further price action development &/or break out of range in either direction. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers. Futures: ICEEUR:NCF1! ICEEUR:NCF2! ASX: ASX:WHC ASX:NHC ASX:YAL ASX:SMR ASX:TER
ICEEUR:NCF2!
by BlueHatInvestor
URA vs. U308 Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Uranium Bull IndicatorPerformance comparison between Global X Uranium ETF versus U308 Futures. One of many Momentum Indicators out there that track Bullish movements in Uranium Sector. Uranium stocks haven't always been closely-correlated to Futures due to their "risk-on" nature...so when stocks start outperforming when Futures + other confluences are also rallying.. You might have a good ol' fashion Uranium Bull run on your hands. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers. Futures: COMEX:UX1! COMEX:UX2! ASX ETFs: ASX:ATOM ASX:URNM US/OTC ETFs: OTC:SRUUF AMEX:URA NASDAQ:URNJ AMEX:URNM
AMEX:URALong
by BlueHatInvestor
3
Iron Ore Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Coiling like a Steel RollIron Ore Futures coiling like a steel roll in a series of Lower Highs & Higher Lows since October 2022. Break above 116.60 = Bullish momentum towards 134.85 (38.2% Fib Retracement) Break below 99.40 = Bearish momentum towards 77.60 (78.6% Fib Extension) Seasonality typically favours the Bulls running strong into end of year - we'll see if it still rings true this year, given China's current economic woes.. Boost/Follow appreciated. Futures: SGX:FEF1! SGX:FEF2! COMEX:TIO1! COMEX:TIO2! ASX: ASX:BHP ASX:RIO ASX:FMG ASX:MIN ASX:CIA NYSE: NYSE:VALE
SGX:FEF2!Long
by BlueHatInvestor
OG not finished with the moveIt's 2 a.m. so I'll be short on this one and go sleep. Vision gonna envision some pretty dreams. So. I do not usually trade fan tokens but in the phase we're at right now, I feel like searching for for the exact scenarios, and this BINANCE:OGUSDT is one of them. Pumpy-dumpy history, already gave me some add-ons to my PnL and is still repeating its own chart almost in the perfect way (such as BINANCE:WRXUSDT from one of my previous setups did). Take a look on this chart. Now go left to April. We're now at the point of 16-17 April 23' and just looking for another 1-2 upward legs. Less words. Buy Zone is Green Sell Zones are Red Have a good trade. Or a good rest.
Long
by A_I_Vision
Bitcoin cycle theory - for my friends to look at in 6 years :)I have created this kind of chart in the past with some assumptions that were not exactly correct because I took into account the unit price of BTC and not the market cap of it. This analysis and prediction is based on logarithmic theory and market cap actualization then divided by units in existence, which basically means the following: BTC marketcap by years: 2013 - 10B 2017 - 100B (reached 250B due to over spike, will not happen again, price per unit should not have been more than $10k) 2021 - 1T (reached 1,17T with price unit of FWB:65K with cca 18M in circulation) 2025 - 10T (2023 data: 19,467,468 BTC in circulation, with cca 0,5M new BTC to be mined in two years taking into consideration halving from 6,25 to 3,125, gives us a baseline) 2029 - 100T Taking into account that in 2025 there will be 20M BTC(more or less), the price point would be exactly at $500k per unit, BUT taking into account that market has grown and that there is a visible slowing down of the pace, skimmed prediction would then be sitting in the $350k region Taking into account that in 2029 there will be 20,5M BTC (more or less), the price point would be at $4,8M per unit, BUT taking into account that market has grown and that there is a visible slowing down of the pace, skimmed prediction would then be sitting in the $2M region Happy Gam(BL)ing!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by zajebancija
S&P 500 Head & Shoulders on the DailyThe SPY (S&P 500 Index) resembles a quite clear Head & Shoulders Pattern which is generally bearish. The daily candle chart shows a right shoulder forming with a rejection from the $445 area. With this rejection and a continuation downwards, we could see a harder fall if this aligns with the left shoulder and follows the pattern. The other main indices also follow a similar pattern formation and could follow with a market downturn. Watching that $445 level is key to see a confirmation retest and rejection downwards. Following the lower levels, some price targets would first be the neckline as shown on the chart posted. A break below the neckline could result in a fall of the S&P 500 and if following the complete Head & Shoulders we could be seeing a realistic price target of the $410-$420 area. Other than technicals fundamentals are definitely quite alright for the market as of now. But maybe a little too alright in my opinion. We have seen a market melt up with interest rates still sky-high resulting in more risk-ON investing rather than investing in CD's or Treasuries offering up to 5.5%. The Greed being shown in this market is definitely visible and is something to keep note of if we break the neckline. Fear & Panic Selling could most definitely occur in this type of situation especially considering the market rally we've seen this summer. Seasonally the fall has been quite bearish for the markets overall, and as we head into September & October we could see a similar trend to the past, but nothing is sure. Lastly, in September / October Student Loan Repayments are resuming which could suck out millions if not billions of dollars from the United States economy as young adults chip away at debt and sacrifice spending on goods & services. This will most definitely be a crucial effect on the economy and could send markets downwards. Keep an eye out for this pattern to play out... Definitely something to watch as we move in to Fall! Thanks
AMEX:SPYShort
by ZachSap
#Bitcoin Fractals ComparisonBasically, when CRYPTOCAP:BTC is compared to past cycles a fractal is placed from the beginning of the year, in general, it is useful and shows seasonality well. But I like the alternative version of the overlay when we take the fractal from the moment of the change of phases of the bitcoin cycle when bitcoin goes from the bear phase, reaches the bottom, and goes into the accumulation phase before the bull run. As can be seen with the 2nd option on the right on the chart, in this case, it is quite clear how the wedges broke through at the same time. And the crash of Bitfinex coincides with the crash of FTX.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FeelsStrategy
Resurrection: SolanaSentiment for SOL was at bottom since FTX collapse. Solana devs, DeFi veterans, newbies and whole tokenholder community start to rebuild and innovate despite all the hate thrown at them. Kijun re-tests on daily and 3 day timeframe is successful, also price is above cloud and we had a bullish TK cross happening. 25/26 USD was break down level from FTX, so it is crucial to reclaim this one. Dips are for buying as long as the price stays above cloud on your favourite long-term timeframe. I am watching 1D, 3D and 1W for confirmations and rejections. IDEA to be updated.
CRYPTO:SOLUSDLong
by zymmetric
Natural Gas from Pipelines to PortfoliosNatural gas was once considered a byproduct of oil production. It is now becoming increasingly important as one of the cleanest burning fossil fuels and a key piece of the clean energy transition. Today, it forms the backbone of global energy production. This paper delves into the supply and demand factors affecting natural gas prices and proposes a long position in Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) to harness gains from seasonal price trends with an entry of 2.484 with a target of 3.099 and a stop loss at 2.172 delivering risk/reward ratio of 2x. Natural Gas Supply and Demand Supply Largest producers and exporters of Natural Gas are US, Russia, Iran, China, Canada, Qatar, Australia, Norway, and Saudi Arabia. The standout in the list is Russia. Following the conflict in Ukraine, gas exports from Russia plummeted 58% in 2022. This led to price shocks in EU natural gas (TTF). US supply is unable to adequately bridge this deficit as transporting natural gas using ships requires converting it to Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and using special refrigerated vessels which is not economical for large quantities of natural gas. This is also why the spread between EU and US natural gas is much wider than EU and US oil. Notably, US shale reserves have a high concentration of natural gas. Along with newly developed fracking techniques, this has led to increasing gas production in the US. Moreover, natural gas is also obtained in the process of oil extraction, which means gas production is linked to oil production. This has interesting ramifications when looking at present supply. Despite low natural gas prices over the past few months, production in the US has remained high as a result of high oil production. Similarly, higher prices do not readily translate to higher production. This suggests that Natural Gas price-supply relationship is inelastic. Demand Demand for Natural Gas comes from: • Energy Production – Natural Gas is used in power plants to generate electricity. Natural Gas electricity production has been rising over the last decade as it replaces Coal. Notably, manufacturers using natural gas as an energy source can switch to other energy sources during price spike, which provides some elasticity to demand. • Commercial and Residential Heating – Natural Gas is used for heating homes in winter. This can lead to a seasonal demand during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. • Industrial Use – Natural Gas is used as a raw material for industrial products such as plastics, ammonia, and methanol. Natural gas demand is heavily affected by weather. Unusually warm summers in the Northern Hemisphere drive higher energy usage from air conditioners while colder winters drive higher demand for heating. Inventories Gas can be injected into storage facilities and stored for later use. These inventory levels play a major role in balancing supply-demand. Summer months (April-October) are referred to as injection periods while winter months (November-March) are withdrawal periods. Inventory levels help even out the surge in winter demand. However, natural gas is much harder to store than oil as it is less dense. This means the inventory effect is not as apparent which explains the larger seasonal variation in natural gas prices as compared to oil prices. Seasonality in Natural Gas Prices Seasonal price action of Natural Gas shows two distinct price rallies. A large rally during winter in the US and EU driven by surge in supply for heating in winters, during this period, prices peak in early-December before declining. The other, smaller spike is during summers in the US and EU when demand for electricity rises, during this period, prices peak in early-June before declining. Further, prices show the highest deviation from the seasonal trend in late-September. Over the past five years, the winter rally has become wider, with prices staying elevated from August to early-December. Additionally, seasonal trend points to a price appreciation of +11% between September and December. However, investors should note that past seasonal trends are not representative of current or future market performance. Henry Hub Futures Henry Hub is the most prominent gas trading hub in the world. It is located at the intersection of major on-shore and off-shore production regions and connected by an extensive pipeline network. This is also where US natural gas exports are dispatched. CME’s benchmark Natural Gas futures (NG) deliver to Henry Hub and is the largest gas futures contract in the world. Other notable Natural Gas futures contracts are TTF (EU) and JKM (Asia). Futures from both regions are also available for trading on CME. Asset Managers are Bullish Commercial traders are heavily net short on Natural Gas futures, short positioning in July was at its highest level since 2021 but has since reduced. Overall, net short commercial positioning points to bullish sentiment. Asset managers have switched positioning in Natural Gas futures from net short to net long since May. Last week net long positioning reached its highest level since May 2022. Options markets OI points to a neutral market view on natural gas with Put/Call ratio close to 1. Options P/C has stayed close to 1 for the past 3 months. At the same time, Implied Volatility on Natural Gas options has been rising in August. A rally last week failed to break past a key support level but vols remain elevated suggesting that price may retest that level again. Henry Hub Gas Dynamics with European Gas Last week, EU Natural Gas futures (TTF1!) spiked by almost 28% due to a strike at Australia’s second largest LNG plant, still the rally soon retraced almost entirely. LNG supply disruption, especially at the key transition to the winter season can lead to volatility spikes. Though, EU gas inventories are 90% full, supply disruptions like this can still have a major effect on gas prices but especially on volatility. Over the past few years, higher flexibility and capacity in the global LNG supply chain has led to the various global natural gas benchmarks tracking each other more closely. This means that Henry Hub natural gas futures are exposed not just to US and Canada Natural Gas production but also to disruptions in global supply. However, the effect is comparatively limited due to ample supply in the US. This can be seen in the price action of Henry Hub natural gas futures which rose by 6% on the same day. Recent Trend in Natural Gas Inventories As per the EIA, Natural Gas supply fell 0.1% WoW last week. At the same time demand rose by 0.3% WoW. Note that working natural gas in underground storage has started to flatten over the past 4 weeks, rising by just 94 billion cubic feet (BCf) compared to the 5Y average increase of 140 BCf during the same period. Still, inventory levels are close to the top of their 5-year maximum, elevated by high US gas production during the summer driven by higher oil production. EIA forecasts that the depletion season will end with inventories 7% higher than their 5-year average. EIA expects production to remain flat for the remainder of the year, so watching weekly consumption reports could point to early indicators of seasonal inventory depletion. However, due to elevated inventory levels, the seasonal effect may not be as strong as prior years. In a longer-term trend, gas rigs in the US have started to decline this year after surging over the past year. This will likely lead to lower production over the next year. Trade Setup With options markets pointing bullish and seasonal trends suggesting price appreciation during this period, a long position in Natural Gas futures expiring in October (NGV) allows investors to benefit from an increase in Natural Gas prices. Each contract of CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures provide exposure to 10,000 MMBtu of Natural Gas while the October contract has maintenance margin of USD 5,070 for a long position. A USD 0.001 MMBtu change in quoted price per MMBtu leads to a PnL change of USD 10 in one Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures. Entry: 2.484 Target: 3.099 Stop Loss: 2.172 Profit at Target: USD 6,150 Loss at Stop: USD 3,120 Reward/Risk: 2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
17
Long-term Gold trading planLong-term Gold trading plan Looking back at the history of Gold, if you want a long-term increase of 1000 prices, you need a falling wedge pattern in an uptrend in the daily frame, in order to create a fomo sell. I have attached 2 ideas below. Likely this week gold will break down from the green line. If long-term investment, the current price area is sensitive, we should not participate, only buy when touching the black line of the wedge pattern. I'll wait and DCA Buy is at those 3 levels Of course, capital management must also be set, because this Gold is only electronic Gold, the FED can manipulate the price, so everything must be under control. Stoploss at 1826. Losing this point Gold will fall deeply and the upcoming August 22 will decide. My target 2180-2500-2800 in 2-3 years. -- There is one more idea of ​​the ichimoku school to strengthen a long-term bullish gold position.>> See below 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by EricGoldHunter
7