SPX into 2024G'day,
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily)
Orange = Daily
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed.
Daily Chart
Weekly chart
Monthly
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Focus on investing for long term positional moves
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXIII
Seasonality
OPUSDT -EPIC ALTseason LONG SETUP +230%Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
This time of the market is THE BEST time to fill up those bags and accumulate. I have been looking at altcoins that are currently trading underneath their first ATH. These alts make excellent trades in terms of low risk and high reward setups. (Check out our page for the other alts).
In today's analysis, another sleeping giant to keep your eye on - OPUSDT. I am extremely bullish on these alts as they have great upside potential for the next bull cycle.
Remember to hit 👍 and follow if you love money !
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
DOGE : RALLY before OR after XMas?Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
As seen on the chart, I've highlighted some potential signs that will help to determine whether we can expect a rally before the 25th or after the 25th / in 2024 :
- If Doge is getting ready for a rally before the 25th, we can expect to see some higher lows. Currently we're trading lower than we did two weeks ago this time.
- If Doge continues to trade range, it's more likely for another wick towards the lower support zone before we observe a breakout.
The price action over the next two weeks will indicate whether or not we can still expect a rally this year, or only next.
For the short term, I'm leaning towards lower price action on DOGE, expecting one more wick towards the lower support :
The main reason for my short sentiment, is the clear bearish technical indicator in the short term:
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
BINANCE:DOGEUSDT BINANCE:DOGEUSD
Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean PricesSoybean prices have been on a rollercoaster fuelled by turbulence over the last month amid elevated weather concerns, changing production yields, and geopolitical upheavals affecting prices. Winters are vital for bean traders. This paper delves into the various forces at play to guide traders and portfolio managers to navigate through the rough weather.
Favourable weather combined tail winds for Soybean harvests plus weakness in destination markets are setting the ground for bearishness in bean prices. A short position in CME Soybean futures can be used to manage risk.
US SOYBEAN HARVEST RESULTS
Soybean harvest in the US has concluded providing a more certain supply outlook for the ongoing marketing year. Next Soybean harvest will take place in March-June in South America. Until then, current inventories will have to meet the demand.
As per USDA update , Soy harvesting in the US is 90% complete. Yields for the 2023/2024 marketing year were updated to 49.9 bushels/acre in the November WASDE report compared to 49.6 bushels/acre in the October report.
This resulted in an upward revision to the production and ending stocks figures as well since the consumption forecast remained unchanged. A similar update was reported by USDA in the global soybean outlook which suggested that global soybean production would be marginally higher.
Despite the upward revisions, the US production figures represent a YoY decline of 4 million MT (-3.3%). The upward revision then, provides a larger buffer to account for potentially higher consumption.
This is vital because bean inventory balances in the US this year are tighter than the previous two years. US Ending stocks are forecast to be 6.68 million MT compared to 7.3 million MT last year.
As a result, although the upward revision expanded the buffer, it is quite narrow which could exacerbate a shortage in case consumption edges higher.
SEASONAL TRENDS
As highlighted by Mint in a previous paper , seasonal trends in Soybean futures are affected by harvest. During harvest, prices decline before recovering post-harvest as inventories are depleted. However, the seasonal trend is distinct during El Niño years where returns underperform the usual average, especially in December-January.
BRAZIL WEATHER CONCERNS LIFTED
Soybean markets are heavily influenced by weather in Brazil. Hotter than expected weather and erratic precipitation raised concerns for Brazilian crops which drove Soybean prices higher over the past month.
Brazil experienced a strong heat wave last month which has a negative effect on crops. Weather effects on crop yields are most pronounced during the early stages of growth.
However, weather is now set to improve as weather forecasts suggest the arrival of rains and milder temperatures ahead. Both are positive for the bean crop.
Still, higher-than-expected precipitation remains a concern for the crop. As highlighted by University of Delaware , too much rainfall during the planting stage can lead to significant yield reduction.
Source: USDA
Brazil is the largest producer of Soybean and its harvest had been expanding rapidly over the past three years. This had previously led to oversupply concerns in global markets, exacerbated by a low demand environment in the largest soybean consumer China.
Though consumption in China is forecast to increase YoY, it will not be enough to match the increase in global production (especially in Brazil) per the latest WASDE estimates . Net effect is larger ending stocks globally which is bearish for Soybean prices.
EL NIÑO UPDATE
In this El Niño year, unexpected weather pose significant concerns as it deviates from the anticipated impact on soybean crops outlined in our previous paper . While El Niño typically brings favourable conditions, such as increased rainfall and mild weather leading to a 3.5% higher soybean yield on average.
Brazil is experiencing unexpectedly warm weather and low precipitation, diverging from the usual patterns. The unpredictability of these conditions amplifies their potential impact on prices compared to previously expected El Niño effects.
Source - NOAA
El Niño continues to evolve adversely as Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has reached its highest level since 2016. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at Niño 3.4 is another indicator that has reached an all-time-high.
Source - NOAA
SIGNAL FROM SOYBEAN FUTURES MARKET
Technical signals suggest a bearish trend in bean futures. Front month bean contract was on an upward trend since mid-October. The front month contract tested but failed to pass a key pivot resistance level of 1,381 USc/bushel. Price has since declined 5% and points to a reversal as the Moving Averages close to forming a bearish crossover.
Asset managers switched from net short to net long positioning over the past month. However, over the last 2 weeks, asset managers have reduced net long positioning by 20k contracts.
Options markets point to bearishness as participants are positioned for Soybean price to decline with a P/C ratio of 1.31 which suggests more bearish bets than bullish ones.
Further, bearish bets have increased sharply over the past week with the largest increase in puts on the April monthly contract and December monthly contract. Moreover, participants have reduced call OI on the front-month December contract.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
With the overhang of negative weather in Brazil lifted, bean prices are likely to decline and pare gains from the past month due to a weak demand environment. Market metrics also suggest a bearish trend. To gain exposure, investors can deploy a short position on Soybean futures expiring in Feb ( ZSH2024 ).
CME Soybean futures expiring in March require a maintenance margin of USD 2,800 (as of December 4th) and provide exposure to 5000 bushels.
Entry: USc 1,336
Target: USc 1,272.25
Stop Loss: USc 1,381
Profit at Target: USD 3,187
Loss at Stop: USD 2,250
Reward/Risk: 1.42x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
REVERSE WYCKOFF! The inverse chart of Solana is forming a WYCKOFF Schematic.
Which means we can see Solana topping here and going down for the time being. This could be good to see some cool down before the next move up.
My target will be around the 48 dollar zone.
So, to make it simple, I can see Solana going higher, but we need to settle down a bit before it goes for another leg up.
Simple & Clean Analysis!
Happy Trading!! ⚔️
Feel free to follow me for more post :)
Risk/Reward favors downside shift to risk Off Sentiment.. BTC has reached a crucial point in which candles appear to be failing around 35K. We must consider potential scenarios to begin the new month of November. In One of these scenarios we may anticpate a retracement to capture fomo liquidity. Fomo liquidity is psychological concept in trading that refers to the chasing of price.
New Monthly candle retracement for liquidity purposes.
Current : 34775
33,372 TP 1
TP 2 30,300 Weekly Level
Trade idea Fakeout back below 35K
Place your bets for AAVEAs we venture into the year 2024, the trajectory of the markets and the global economy remains shrouded in ambiguity. AAVE has surpassed my projections for 2023, defying my anticipation of new lows for AAVEUSD by the year's end. Although we have witnessed new lows for AAVEBTC, I sense that we might be on the brink of significant surprises, either positive or negative, especially considering the upcoming election year. The forthcoming months appear to be pivotal in shaping the future course of this market cycle and beyond. Place your bets!
Swing Trading Signals, Momentum Patterns: TPRLuxury fashion brands are popular for speculation heading into the holidays.
With a few points to the bottom completion resistance, NYSE:TPR has a swing trading entry signal, 2 in a row now. Resting days that create a narrow consolidation can be powerful momentum-building patterns for short-term trading.
Swing trading, rather than day trading, these setups can net better profits. Position trading needs to wait for a stronger support level to build for an entry, which usually occurs when the bottom formation completes.
Ethereum Keltner Channel 👀In the last post, I said that I expect the end of the accumulation and good momentum with a breakout of the baseline↗️
And that happened. I can adjust only that, I do not expect such a deep correction, but only a retest of the support line. On the RSI, a retest of zone 50 is possible. After these moments, closer to spring, a clear uptrend can be expected⤴️
Bitcoin Dominance(Uses) CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Bitcoin dominance refers to the percentage of the
total cryptocurrency market capitalization that is
represented by Bitcoin. In other words, it indicates
the proportion of the entire cryptocurrency market
that is attributed to Bitcoin's market value.
For example, if Bitcoin has a market capitalization
of $600 billion and the total cryptocurrency market
cap is $1.5 trillion, then the Bitcoin dominance
would be 40% (since $600 billion is 40% of $1.5
trillion).
Bitcoin dominance is a metric that traders,
investors, and analysts use to assess Bitcoin's
relative strength compared to other
cryptocurrencies. Changes in Bitcoin dominance
can be indicative of shifts in market sentiment. For
instance, if Bitcoin dominance is increasing, it may
suggest a trend where Bitcoin is outperforming
other cryptocurrencies, and if it's decreasing, it
may indicate that alternative cryptocurrencies
(altcoins) are gaining traction.
During phases of high Bitcoin dominance, traders
might opt for a more conservative approach,
focusing on larger, more established
cryptocurrencies to reduce risk.
Conversely, when Bitcoin dominance is low, and
altcoins are performing well, traders may allocate
a portion of their portfolio to potentially higher-risk,
higher-reward altcoin investments.
Remember that while Bitcoin dominance can
provide valuable insights, it should not be the sole
factor in your trading decisions, Cryptocurrency
markets are highly dynamic, and factors such as
news, regulations, and technological
developments, can significantly impact prices.
Always, always, always use a comprehensive
approach to trading and common sense :-)
You can find the Bitcoin Dominance Chart by typing
BTC.D into the TradigngView searching tool.
Enjoy
When to sell NvidiaNamaste!
Nvidia was one of the stocks which benefited hugely by the AI (Artificial Intelligence) boom.
It corrected around 68% from its all time high during October 2022. Looking back at that time, I thought it as some serious happening because Meta was down around 76% , Netflix 77% , Tesla 72% , Amazon 55% , etc.
I knew these were a good buys and probably sold at 100 or 200% gain . Off course I couldn't buy because I am Indian and trading in US markets is complicated.
But now, I think it is time to book the profits in Nvidia at $490 .
Key reasons affecting my decision:
1. The stock is overvalued.
2. AI hype is cooling off.
3. I am expecting a recession in the year 2024.
4. My bearish Instinct .
Other things anyone can do:-
1. Sell at above mentioned prices and buy back at $347, which will result in around 30% in opportunity profit.
Remember, I have nothing to win and nothing to loose. Any gain or loss arising out of my analysis is yours . Consider your financial advisor before taking any steps.
Disclaimer: This article should not be considered as an investment or trading advice. The analysis is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. You must do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing or trading.
YUUUUGE Bull Flag $GME!!!! NYSE:GME Whoa! Havent looked at this chart in a while. I just drew the downtrend support line and flag pole today. The downward resistance line has been there for months now without me changing or modifying. Seems to be now breaking out of that channel. My 1st target would be long 22.00Calls. Then after wait for confirmation or yolo target 27 OTM calls. Hit me up on snapchat DM for a free trade idea @Shonufftrades
Nvidia Pulls Back After EarningsNvidia is the top performing member of the S&P 500 this year, up 227 percent. Despite that big move, the chip giant has actually gone nowhere for over four months. But will that remain the case into yearend?
The first pattern on today’s chart is the price area between $470 and $476. That roughly matches NVDA’s high in mid-October (depending on whether you take intraday or closing prints). The stock has attempted to stabilize in this zone in the last four sessions. Can it keep holding and turn old resistance into new support?
Second is the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). This EMA hasn’t been very important lately, but it did mark the bottom of the uptrend several times in the first half. Remaining above it could also make traders think direction is still positive.
Finally, NVDA potentially stands to benefit from momentum in the final weeks of 2023.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures or cryptocurrencies); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association (“NFA”), and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services under federal and state money services business/money-transmitter and similar registrations and licenses.
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
ZEC/USDT Major trend. 2 halving 17 11 2024. 17/160,18Major trend. Large time frame for clarity. Old exchange Poloniex (low liquidity) due to long trading history to show everything clearly. As you can see with each cycle the highs are decreasing....
Cycles of life and death . This cryptocurrency is going into its third cycle. It will most likely be the last because of its anonymity. In a decentralized super centralized world, nothing can be anonymous! Am I wrong? States don't need anything anonymous. The demands of market regulation will “strangle” anything anonymous. But, this is later, and before the halving, which will happen on 17 11 2024 with a high probability they will pump up to 160.18$, and maybe even higher, if the card falls.
Saving "dirty money" when CBDC is introduced by banks . Some people think that when CBDC of central banks is introduced, through anonymous coins like ZEC, HMR and so on, big capital will "save" their shadow money. A fairy tale for school children. I have little faith in it. I think such money has been saved long ago. Although this story to create a news background as a reason to pump has a place ....
It's worth noting that BCH and BTC will first halve in April 2024.
News from Satoshi . By the way, "rumor has it" that closer to the summer of 2024, according to the plot of our crypto movie called good/bad, a new “Satoshi Nakamoto”. Will be announced, who will plunge everyone into “uncertainty of actions/consequences” in the market. Rumors also claim it will be the universally hated villain, Craig Wright). Do you think the role will go to another villain, Roger Ver? Or have these two characters already played out and the role will go to someone else? Or maybe the plot itself will be canceled? Perhaps. Time will tell, the manipulators can come up with anything, that's not the point.
Immunity from news nonsense. The main thing is to treat such "crypto stories", even if there is a real imitation of provability, with the utmost equanimity. Remember, no matter what is going on, it is all a hoax to capitalize on the direction of the trend. The news background that is created to accompany price movement.
Line chart.
Secondary trend. Timeframe 3 days
AVAX - PARABOLIC Next Bullrun🐮+400% TPHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
AVAXUSDT is another altcoin currently trading lower than it's first ATH. This is important, because it makes for an excellent low risk and high reward trade. As we see the markets current trading in the accumulation phase where range trading is common, I'm expecting sideways trading between the support zone and the resistance zone. We can then expect the final low volume selloff, as per Wyckoff Method Phases.
Interested in another altcoin that's trading under it's first ATH? Check out Litecoin :
Remember to hit 👍 and follow if you love money !
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
Why TESLA is STILL heading LOWERHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
A quick analysis today on Tesla and why I'm still expecting the price of TSLA to head lower.
After a nasty Head and Shoulders Pattern on the monthly, TSLA has reached a selling climax and an automatic rally afterwards (which always follows a SC). However, if we look at the Wyckoff Method schematics, this is not yet the bottom. The bottom is expected to happen during phase B, which is the phase we're about to head into.
ST will always be LOWER than SC, therefore there will be another chance to accumulate TESLA at a lower entry.
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
NASDAQ:TSLA
ROSE Bloom depends on PollinationGM Gardeners!
The Summer season is going to an end and one of our flowers seems to still be in its early stages of the pollination.
Most roses bloom between late spring and early fall, typically taking about six weeks to produce each new set of flowers as the plant continues growing throughout the season.
However, our flower didn't actually bloom just yet. In the past year, it shown a great smell of victory in June, because we've feed the ground at its Area #1. This year we've gone through this Area and formed the underground, Area #2, and even had some cold snowy blossom.
Remember: Carefully pruning, feeding, and controlling any pests or diseases on your roses is the best way to encourage new blooms.
That's why we have to carefully feed the ground at the Area #2. After that we can test this ground and touch the middle point of the wedge like this:
(BoS is the breaking of structure. If we confirm BoS High, than the Area #2 has been feeded enough. If we confirm BoS Low, The feeding process will just begin)
However, My long term guess is that each massive flowering requires the Renewed land. That's why I'm expecting coming to the Unexplored Area #3 for the blossom to take part this Fall.
Have a Good Harvest
Yours truly,
Gardener A.I.Vision