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Seasonality

Bullish outlook on S&P 500, ESM2024, first intraday target 5375We expect further bullish prices in the S&P 500, ESM 2024. After the FOMC Meeting Minutes, yesterday, the daily candle closed bearish, but above 5315, which indicates further bullish prices on the daily. We will be therefore looking for bullish tradesetups today and further until proven otherwise. However, we will have to see if good setups form, since price gaped at todays opening and has already moved a lot overnight, before market opening at 9:30 new york time. We will therfore see if we get some discount to enter first. We are not trying to chase price intraday, entering in a premium. For a first intraday target we are looking for 5375 and potentially higher. This is no financial advice, do not risk real money on the analysis shared by us!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by MintMarkets_Fx
1
KWEB: Exposure to Chinese tech marketBased on past cycle history, the SHSZ300 (Chinese S&P 500 more or less) tracks the US markets bull runs, though starting with a large delay. We're fed a lot of bad news about China, but the fact is, they're making some economic power moves, and positioning themselves for the AI Industrial Revolution. The Chinese markets are bottoming out, and it's a good time to get exposure to the Chinese markets. I will be buying in around the buy zone ($45 - $41). #China #MCHI #KWEB
AMEX:KWEBLong
by Savwire1
My target's on Solana's next ATH in the 2024 - 2025 cycleThese are just price and mcap projections and not to be taken as financial advice. Imho there are basically 3 cryptocurrencies that matter in terms of organic user and developer adoption. That's Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, other chains don't come close. Currently Solana is the fastest blockchain, and processing more transactions than Ethereum and it's L2s combined. Ethereum: Top to top, 2018 - 2021 ETH made a 244% gain, from around $1400 - $4800 Solana: In my model, my conservative target is $500 in the upcoming bull cycle, which is only a 94% gain top to top. "2021 - 2024/2025" In my aggressive target, it's a 284% gain top to top, ie: from roughly $260 to $1000. Which is just slightly more than ETH's 244% performance, but we're talking about a chain with atm a much smaller marketcap, but much more potential of mass adoption. The $1000 liberal target which give SOL at current supply a $420 billion mcap, which is still under ETH's 2021 top mcap size of $578 billion.
COINBASE:SOLUSDLong
by leongaban
7
There is no turn backThis analysis might look pretty crowded but actually there is simple logic behind this. After each bearish season place "Fib speed fan resistance" from top to bottom. We can observe there is no bearish scenario after we break 0.75 blue fan line. There might be red weeks but after all its end with bullish scenario. End of bullish scenario can be found from Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low indicator. Whenever it's "High Short MA" and "High Long MA" crosses it is very close to top. This indicator is repainting so it means we can estimate end of bull season by "Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low" indicator.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IronheadNAD
The Crypto Carousel: BTC, ALTS, and the Money Merry-Go-Round✅ Bitcoin Dominance, BTC, Altcoins ✅ Today we're diving into the fascinating world of money rotation within the cryptocurrency subclasses. We're talking about the rotation of cash between Bitcoin and altcoins, its younger, more diverse siblings. Imagine a pie where each slice represents a different cryptocurrency. The pie here indicates the total cryptocurrency market cap of both Bitcoin and altcoins, which can increase or decrease at any given time. In other words the TOTAL chart. - If BTC market cap increases but altcoin market cap shrinks (relative), the pie stays the same size. - If BTC market cap increase and altcoin market cap increases, the pie size increase and so forth. Total Market Cap ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ) and BTC.D Now, imagine a big shiny carousel. Bitcoin is the majestic stallion at the center, while altcoins are the colorful horses surrounding it. Riders (investors) hop on and off, injecting money into the ride (buying) and taking it out (selling). This constant movement is what keeps the crypto carousel spinning. Let's break it down with visuals: Chart 1: The Bitcoin Rollercoaster This rollercoaster represents Bitcoin's price action, and also my view on where we are in the current cycle. (I believe we're in a multimonth correction, followed by the last impulse wave up). You'll need this to know where we are in the cycle right now / LOWER-STABLE: Chart 2: Bitcoin & Bitcoin Dominance Dance This chart shows Bitcoin's dominance, which is basically its share of the total crypto market capitalization (market cap = total value of all cryptocurrencies). When Bitcoin's dominance goes up (higher on the chart), it means investors are putting more money into Bitcoin, potentially at the expense of altcoins. Conversely, when dominance goes down, it suggests capital is flowing towards altcoins. The difference is clear: Chart 3: BTC.D vs TOTAL3 In this chart, we overlay the Total 3 Priceline (turquoise) on top of the Bitcoin Dominance chart. TOTAL3 shows us all alts except ETH. The Bitcoin Rollercoaster and the S&P 500: Imagine Bitcoin's price as a rollercoaster. When Bitcoin surges (line goes up), it can sometimes lead to increased investor risk appetite. This might entice some investors to move funds from the S&P 500 into riskier assets like Bitcoin, potentially causing a slight dip in the S&P 500. Conversely, when Bitcoin experiences a price drop, investors might flock back to the perceived stability of the stock market, potentially causing a rise in the S&P 500. So, is there a guaranteed correlation? Not quite. The crypto market is a complex beast. But by understanding the relationship between Bitcoin, altcoin prices and dominance, you can get a better sense of where the money merry-go-round might be headed. Remember, this isn't financial advice! Do your own research before making any crypto investments. But hey, with this knowledge under your belt, you're one step closer to navigating the world of crypto rotations! _______________________
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
🔥WHAT EXPECT FROM BITCOIN IN SUMMER 2024❓99% ACCURACY❗️🔥 Bitcoin reaches the most boring period on any market. It's a vocation period for US stock market and for crypto market as well (JUNE-AUGUST). But will the market be as calm as many expect? A Bitcoin rally to new all-time highs (ATH) near 150,000 or a -50% dump? What will be with altcoins price and which one have best growth potential? Discover in this video! 🎁 Check my trading ideas for the altcoins that are still at the bottom! like❤️ and follow
by Alex_Dehtiarov
Tracking the inversion of the yield curve US02Y - US10YThe inversion of the yield curve often serves as a reliable indicator, suggesting an impending increase in the likelihood of both recession and market downturns in the foreseeable future To track this inversion effectively, you can subtracting the interest rates of the 2-year US government bonds from those of the 10-year bonds TVC:US02Y - TVC:US10Y When this calculation yields a result above 0 percent, it indicates an inversion in the 2-year versus 10-year interest rates In 2022, when the current inversion of the yield curve began, the “experts” were constantly warning us of an immediate recession and market crash However, historical data reveals that significant market corrections typically materialize many months, if not years, following the yield curve inversion The upper chart depicting US02Y-US10Y, the black 0 line serves as a reference point. Meanwhile, the lower chart illustrates the drawdown of the S&P 500 SP:SPX in the last 35 years The picture shows that each time there was a drawdown of at least 15% after the end of the inversion of the yield curve The dashed blue lines represent the end of the inversion, indicating that a larger drawdown is more likely after the end of the yield curve inversion and not during the inversion I'll be diligently monitoring the current inversion once again. A breach below 0% would warrant a considerably more cautious approach to the markets Admittedly, such correlations aren't infallible, and their fruition can sometimes span several years Nevertheless, they hold merit from a cyclical perspective Should the inversion of the yield curve cease to be inverted around 2025, a recession and market correction following the 18.6-year real estate cycle would become increasingly likely This would also align with the anticipated correction in the crypto market, typically occurring within a 4-year cycle
SP:SPX
by OfficerDonut
1
Sell in May and go Away ... not too fastWe recently saw the AMEX:SPY index falling very fast and aggressively to the correction territory. The level found support around the 4950s. After all the events like Earnings, one day down, the other day up, and both very aggressive, plus the Fed meeting, also with a wild rollercoaster. At the end of the day the index found support above the 4950. Which is good news, and the first step. What does it come next? After all this spring clean I am expecting that all the weak hands were shaken and the "buy low sell high" comes next. Double bottom and a target level 5200 for the SP500. The VIX spiked to the dreadful level of 20 and it came down. No WWIII, no Iran vs Israel, no international events. "News is Noise". The market shrugged off the events and determined that the 100 ma support was stronger. We're still in the correction territory, until we go past the 50 ma the next target will be the All Time High ATH levels we saw by the end of March. The market hates to become predictable, so the "Sell in May and go Away ..." could as well have turned into "Sell in April, don't be fooled". Indicators: Madrid Ribbon at 100/200 ma Madrid EMA at 50 Madrid Momentum Indicator Madrid Display Symbol showing VIX
SP:SPXLong
by Madrid
NZDUSD-4H-TREND CONTINUATIONNZDUSD is looking bearish in HTF 1. Conditional Scoring: Bearish sentiment is derived from expectations of deteriorating economic conditions in New Zealand relative to the US. 2. COT-FILP: Bearishness is based on speculative positioning in the futures market, where traders anticipate a decline in the NZDUSD exchange rate. 3. Seasonal Patterns: Bearishness during the first two weeks of May since the last 5, 10, and 15yr is attributed to seasonal factors, such as decreases in exports or shifts in interest rate differentials. 4. Fundamentals: Improvements in leading economic indicators and exogenous factors suggest strength in the NZD, while a decline in endogenous factors implies potential weakness in the currency. 5. Technicals: Bearishness in the trend and continuation pattern suggests a downward trajectory in the NZDUSD pair, while bullish divergences might indicate a potential reversal despite other technical factors pointing to bearish. Overall, the analysis concludes with a bearish outlook for the NZDUSD pair, considering both fundamental and technical factors.
Short
by AamirZahirali
1