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Scenario

Another Bubble forecast ;)An admittedly quite optimistic bullish scenario. I think we are right on track for the formation of another bubble a la April 2013 and November 2013. Notice how similar the runup from the low this year, has been to the July low last year. Then compare the astounding similarities in the RSI. Other people have pointed out other similarities between the three bubbles. Because the last bubble took longer to "deflate" compared with the one from April 2013, this bubble cycle will probably take longer to build up, hence we're a bit too late for the new ATH. Have fun! :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
4
Bitcoin point of NO Return_____ Hit a “Like” button if you think Bitcoin will eventually hit a new all-time high _____ Bitcoin already trading at the lowest price over the past year. In the last 24 hours, the Cryptocurrency market has been bleeding. Bitcoin already crashed by 14.6% as price moved from $6500 down to the current low at $5500. This is a huge USD1000 drop in a very short timeframe, and the downside momentum might increase even further. Only true believers in Bitcoin would buy it under the current market condition. Obviously it would be an extremely risky choice, although over the long term, keeping the Bitcoin still can pay off. But what if Bitcoin will crash completely? Where is that point of no return? When the risk/reward is optimal? Now we’ll try to answer all those questions. Bitcoin - the King The blockchain technology is getting wide adoption with a massive use case throughout many industries. At the moment it seems there is no chance that it will just disappear, but quite opposite. From the other hand, it is not necessary that Bitcoin will be leading the way, and remain the Kind of cryptocurrencies. Perhaps in the future there will be the “ONE” who will push the great Bitcoin aside. But it does not necessary mean that the price of the Bitcoin will collapse. BTC might not be the most popular cryptocurrency, but it is likely to remain the most trusted one. Point of no return Ok, let's consider the scenario where Bitcoin will loose the status of “most trusted” coin…. Important: Not the blockchain technology, but only the Bitcoin. In this case it would be reasonable to expect capital moving out of BTC to other altcoin/s. Indeed the price of BTC would go through a great suffering, turning the long term uptrend to a long term downtrend. And this could potentially be that scenario of no return. But what is the probability of that happening??? Let us know down in the comments below. Price of interest Now it is reasonable to talk about the risk/reward. No one knows the future, but if Bitcoin will remain the coin of “trust’, the price is likely to increase over the long term. The buying opportunity is there, if thinking of a long term investment. Although to minimize the risk and maximize the reward, traders could be waiting for the lower entry price. Based on the ascending channel and Fibonacci retracement level, strong support level is based near $4800, that is 78.6% retracement. This could be a very interesting point of entry for some investors, but of course a risky one. It’s because if the support is penetrated, Bitcoin could crash even further to test $2.9k level that is 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. At $3k area there might be another hot buying opportunity of the Bitcoin. But if or when it will get that low is a big question. Positive scenario In the near term, the $4.8k support would probably have a lot of attention. If this level will be rejected, uptrend continuation can take place. One of the possible scenarios that BTC will go as high as $40,000, but perhaps only by the end of the next year. In any way, Bitcoin already entered the support area, which is between $4,800 and $5,755. In this area Bitcoin could spend quite a bit of time, nevertheless under the heavy volume there can be some fast and unexpected price movements in any direction.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CryptalDash
2
BTC USD Bearish Scenario #1 Bears win 2 battles Bulls win WarDear HodlCrypots, As we all know BTC is making a complex correction from it's previous all time high. To anticipate the upcoming moves we have to assume that there is a basic underlying structure in all corrective structures. This is a scenario where I anticipate bitcoin to make an even bigger WXYXZ corrective structure. Keep in mind that this is speculation from my side and it doesn't have to play out this way. It's an idea, in my opinion a very realistic one but nonetheless it's not to be interpreted as a roadmap of how bitcoin SHOULD or MUST move. It is besides crypto that we are talking about and BIG unexpected moves are almost guarenteed in this market, like the recent TETHER situation that catapulted the price. The core underlying aspect of this scenario is that we still have to make 1 more lower low and that the bear market is going to take longer than most bulls hope for (including me). The second assumption is that the 5000 USD area is too big of a psychological price and has algo targets supporting it as you can see clearly in the chart. We also see a clear decline in volume and a constant repeat of either a 0.5 or 0.618 retracement playing out. We have an incomplete Elliot wave count. We see a clear rejection of the 125 EMA. The tether situation also has created some uncertainty and it doesn't matter if the rumors are correct or wrong from a technical point of view. It almost allways affects the market and the big question is: will you disregard it or take it into account. The way I interpret it is it created at least some uncertainty, and while it created a spike in volume in the short term it will create a further decline in volume in the mid-term or long-term. Now the assumption is: If we are to make one more lower low and if it will only reach the price of 5000 USD it is in my opinion to high to call it a big break down (it is only 700 dollars lower of the previous low to show the insignificance of this correction). What will happen next in this scenario? If the price surge after that, and only if the 5000 USD price level holds (!) and we won't make it past 6800 USD after that then the 'capitulation' moment will be triggered. In my opinion this will be marked as a 3-3-5 Z correction move where the 5 move will be a big dropdown of 2800 USD into the 4000 USD area. I have also seen too many posts of people stating that bitcoin won't go below 5000 USD. These are the people that will be capitulating when it does. In my opinion I see no reason for btc to go lower than 3700 USD in this end move (and this possibility of a 3700 USD move will only be a wick). Prices will calm down after that and adaptive traders will see a completed correction when it unfolds. When they step in it will be officialy bull time after a possible reversal trend sign that also can take 2-3 months to perform, but a lower low will not happen from this point on in this scenario. The bulls will have finaly wun the war. Only after this gets confirmed the parabolic run will start and big money will flow in because bear market will finaly be over. Again: this is one bearish scenario that might play out, there are many others, I personaly don't stick to one scenario and posses one more bearish scenario and 2 other bullish scenario's so interpret this like me as an idea to see if BTC will be valued this way in the upcoming months. Another bearish scenario is also possible in which the 5000 USD level won't hold, and the more the price will break down the more I am inclined to accept only a 3 lower low counting. The rest is all in the chart and you can find the support levels and the high resistance zone in the chart. Thanks for taking your time to read this! Stay safe and good luck everyone! PS: This is for educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor. The sharing of graphs is meant to share my ideas with the rest of the community and an indication on how I make my trades
BNC:BLX
by HodlCrypot
2
Where to now?Quick update of yesterdays scenario (): We saw price failing to push through straight away, as we suspected. Now we have 4 actionable options before us: 1. Price moves down and we see a reactivation of a new bullish cycle somewhere in the support area. Here we can re-enter a long position if we get good signals 2. Price stagnates and allows some time to pass, reactivating the momentum for a next push up. Here too we can possibly re-enter a long, however the risk would be bigger (as we are farther away from our invalidation level than when price would move down first. The target remains the same) 3. We go up straight away in some kind of fomo run, in which case there is no safe entry for us, as we’re going up on exhausted momentum. 4. We break down violently. in which case we would have to reassess momentum before entering short. As we said, the odds are we’re about to have another upmove, but we need to find a good low risk entry. For that to happen we need to see some reaction first: we don;t want to get in at the end of the last move, we want the beginning or confirmation of the next. So patience again, and serenity: we have our plan laid out. Let’s glance at the charts briefly Daily As we can see we are out of equilibrium, and will need one of the above scenarios to play out to restore that: either price moves to kijun, or kijun moves to price. Kijun and Chikou were not able to break the kumo on the last push. Again, waiting for momentum to restore and possibly break out. Kijun will remain flat for the coming days if we don’t make new highs, in which case the consolidation may take some days. 2HR The 2HR timeframe is showing all signs of consolidation, as all elements move into each other, about to meet the kumo. We will either hold the area around the kumo for a while, or dip down before starting the next wave up. We’ll have to wait and see how this plays out, and if we get a good setup developing on this timeframe to enter the trade. Now, utter a brief word of gratitude to the passage of time, without which we would have nothing, set alerts around the key levels and close the charts. Enjoy your day
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
4
BlockMason VS Bitcoin Upcoming ScenariosSince the beginning of May, when BlockMason Credit Protocol rejected the resistance at 6900 satoshis, it has lost over 46% to the Bitcoin. Currently BCPT/BTC is trading at 3860 satoshis, and this is 161.8% Fibonacci retracement applied to the corrective wave up after the ascending channel breakout. Today price reached this support level and seem reject it, while starting to move slightly upwards. The current Fib support should play a key role in further price development and while it continues to be respected by the market, trend reversal is likely to take place.  On the other hand, daily break and close below 3860 sats should trigger yet another wave down, that should result in the decline towards next Fibonacci support level, that is 2600 satoshis.
B
by CryptoPAMM
11
Be Aware Of THIS Scenario 2.0Be Aware Of THIS Scenario 2.0 As I said on my last update, it looks like we're going to drop again. It all looked bullish for a while, but since everyone was sure we had a bounce at $9,200 this support simply could not hold. Let's move on to the scenarios before Bitcoin breaks through the $10,000: Scenario 1: We form an expanding flat and test either MA 50 in the 4hr chart or MA 200 in the 1d chart. Scenario 2: We form a running flat and test $8,800 In my opinion we'll form an expanding flat (Scenario 1) instead of a running flat (Scenario 2). Since many people, including 'top authors' are expecting a bounce at $8,800, it will probably not hold. But you can never be sure. This drop could also change the view of the idea '' Watch Out When Breaking $10,000 '' - depending on how people react to this drop. Btw: Although I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin Cash, it's very likely that it will drop again with almost all altcoins. If it drops with Bitcoin, I'm still very sure that it will shoot in the near future.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by EWHALE
5
Be Aware Of THIS ScenarioBe Aware Of THIS Scenario Should we actually break down, which is very possible, then do not panic! I see that in people who act emotionally, again and again. You are selling, Bitcoin is actually going down $400-300 and you are thinking that it will fall more. After a few hours you will see that the price is back above your selling price and that's how the clever people manage to reduce your money. Mostly, you hope that the price will go down a bit more to buy at least at your retail price. What is happening? The price goes up and up until you are forced to enter emotionally, just when you are in a correction again. At my last Bitcoin idea you have seen that I am very uncertain about the current situation. The question I asked myself was: Scenario 1: Are we going up now? Scenario 2: Are we going to make a bigger correction before going up? Personally, I prefer the second scenario because it would 'kill' the longs again before it goes up. But I think that the first scenario will happen, because it looks very much like a structure I know. So, no matter what happens now, I assume that we will go up afterwards and people will be scared. The market decides. Note: I'm sorry that I upload this idea for the third time now. Had problems to show both scenarios in one idea to make it clearer.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWHALE
34
Be Aware Of THIS ScenarioIt seems Bitcoin has bounced off the critical zone. Since I had a sell order at around $9500 this night, I got away well. On my last idea, I said that Bitcoin breaks through this zone only if it forms a flag before or after it. With this update I would like to warn you that it could be this way again. So be open to this scenario. I've shown you the current options that I see now below what a flag might look like. It could also look very different. I just want you to make your own picture of it. Inspire yourself, go through the scenarios yourself and decide yourself. Never just listen to others, because they could be wrong too. The only difference is that they may have a stop loss while you are not safe. Make your own decision.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by PermaB
6
Bull Run Scenario for BTCIf you checked my previous idea on BTC, you can see that we have too many signs for a bull run which we shouldn't ignore. Even if it's not certain, it's always the best to take position for all circumstances. Before we rise, i think we will have a small drop to around (minimum) 7.5k where we have decent support and that spot also corresponds to the bottom of the green ichimoku cloud. That gain of bullish momentum there will slowly lead us to our way to 9k-where we will have another small correction. Trade will be active unless we hit below that support level. If this scenario gets confirmed, it will probably take about 4 months to reach 20k level and continue to go up afterwards.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by candlesticker7
MonaCoin ScenariosMonacoin has formed a double near $2.8 after which it attempted to break above the downtrend trendline, but no clear breakout followed. Price went back and formed another double bottom at 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. Clearly there is strong support around $2.8 and this could be a potential reversing point for MONA/USD. But it could be a little premature at this stage to say that trend is reversing as the bearish momentum is still intact. Bullish scenario: MonaCoin has to break and close above $4.2 resistance in order to move higher, in this case upside target is seen at $7 Consolidation scenario: Price could be trapped between $2.8 support and $3.3 resistance for a little while, break above or below should give some clues on further direction. Bearish scenario: MONA/USD closes below $2.8 support, this might result in a more decline towards $2 psychological support and perhaps slightly lower - $1.8.
M
by CryptoPAMM
2
XVG:BTC - Verge Head & Shoulders pattern, watch for breakdown.Hello, pretty probable senario with all of the FUD coming out last 2 days, closing a Head and shoulders pattern and bouncing back up based on the news if they manage ot pull the Wraith Protocol out. Also Bitcoin is gaining momentum so you need to watch this out. It's along trade with first target the previous ATH marked on the chart. Happy traing and remember that you invens on your own risk. Happy to discuss with different opinions.
Long
by IvelinAngelov
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Something for the Weekend Breakout ScenarioBitcoin: BTCUSD Update into the Weekend:Scenarios The battle continues and finally the bears have made an impression on the upper parallel, pushing price down to 7800, where pin bars from earlier show some demand (not shown on chart, but significant to the very near term now). There is no winner yet, though. It can move sideways from here, meeting demand off the parallel and more still at 7717 freezer lid level and down to 7660 at an absolute pinch, building a new rectangular range between 7717 and 7990-8000. It can move sideways further, out of the pull of the parallels, large and small, but still be Ok so long as 7717-7660 holds - but it would be a sign of strength if it could avoid all that, use the large parallel as support and then power higher, and back through the neck line again - if and when it gathers enough buying power to manage that, this next time could well prove successful in breaking the last bears that still stand strong at 7990-8000. So far, from their viewpoint, looking down the mountain from 8000 with stops just above, there's nothing to scare them...yet. OK, that big bear raid first thing in London didn't work out so well for them this time, but their stops still haven't pinged yet. When that happens and 8000 is broken by 20 points it becomes another breakout/momentum play. It will maybe need China to open to create enough volume...they like breakouts - but we need to see one now to add to long positions from here...should it come (but think it will at some point this weekend even if they try to sell it off in China first thing Saturday) it could well be explosive in nature. Doesn't have to be but could well be. And once 8000 is actually broken the upside is, by nature of the beast, incalculable. Anyone who says they have a value for Bitcoin is not to be trusted any more than asking your dog how much it's worth. No one has ANY clue. It could be 15000, it could be 30000, it could be 5000 and it could be 5 one day. No one knows. You KNOW that though. And it's enough to make money - big money - either way. You don't even have to believe in Bitcoin per se, just believe what the chart is telling you, and no one else. And so to the poential for downside this weekend coming: the big parallel remains the first line of support, and then 7717-7660 (stops for remaining longs from 7570 tight under 7660). So if 7717 fails and then 7060 also then fails we have a near term problem emerging and Bitcoin should fall away to 7531 again and the rectangular range suddenly expands from 8000 at top to 7531 at bottomwith 7717 as the dividing line between the three...fantastic for day traders, trading between these lines. This could take a large part of Saturday to play out if we see it..again great for day traders, a nice wide range to play within, potentially developing this weekend as a consequence of this type of price action, if 7717 gives way, as above. But, the bull case is strong whilst above 7717 and still just fine at 7531. But if this fails at any point this weekend, the bears are getting control again. It's a buy on any retest of 7531 with stop just under 7500 for rally to 7719. Then close if a day trader and only go long again from 7730 to 7980 with a stop under 7700, trading between the three blue lines. Long Story short: Turn aggressively bullish again on a break above 8000 by 20 points, that can be sustained (very careful here as it could explode upwards, and potentially downwards too, so stops need using and the risk of being hit quite high so they need to be some way away from 8000 if longs are triggered, at least 100) This is still tough work but the bulls won't quit... That parallel above, just holding it back now...if it breaks above it soon, then the break out could well follow soon after. Good for swing traders. Otherwise we'll be heading for a Saturday made for day-traders, as above. And turn aggressively bearish again only a break below 7531 looking to short rallies back u
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
S&P 500: What if history does NOT repeat again in 2017?Scenario: No "Black Monday" crash next week - 30 years after the "1987" stock market crash. What if there is no large stock market crash in the next week and instead we get to see lots of new all-time highs as bulls keep pressing the marketing higher and higher? Based on my own research the odds for a crash next week have strongly increased going into next Monday, October 23, 2017 as the uptrend has started to get weaker on October 19, 2017. But given the fact that so many are warning about a repeat of the "1987" crash, here is a scenario what might happen, if the "S&P 500" does not start to crash in the next 1-7 trading days and instead begins a very strong short squeeze leading to new all-time highs. In this bullish scenario there could be a very strong rally, which might take the "S&P 500" from around 2550 points quickly up to around 2700 points. The actual crash might then for example occur in early December or later at the start of Q2 2018. Don't get me wrong, I have started to get very bearish today on October 19, 2017 as the price declined on this historically day right along what some of my indicators show me. And if the "S&P 500" falls below recent lows I'm going to change my opinion immediately to very strongly bearish. But so far it appears that maximum greed might yet not be fully priced in. Trade setup: Bullish breakout happens Long entry: 2560 (after new breakout all-time high 2570 occurred) Target: 2695 Stop loss: 2525 Risk: 35 points Reward: 125 points
TVC:SPX
by ChartArt
1
Long GBPJPY Anticipating Strong GBP DataI've realized that I've making too many trades lately and with increasing complication in my analysis. This trade is my attempt to go back to the core of being a contrarian, trying to find the most "pain" in the market and benefit from it. My game plan is now: first looking at retail's positioning that is the most extreme for the currency pair in focus, monitoring the price action associated with the pair to see if market has been agreeing/disagreeing to that view from the retail's perspective. Finally is to assess the % probability of the fundamental event in focus and conduct a scenario analysis. Analysis: - Positioning: Net Short, most in GBPJPY, no pair is Net Long - Price action: Net Long at this point thus there is a disagreement between the Retail's position and the market's sentiment. GBPJPY in particular is relatively flat. - Fundamental: Service PMI is expected to be flat but I think it has a better chance to beat the estimate. Conclusion: Go Long GBPJPY, if the data is bad I expect the initial reaction of people who Shorted early is to TP and that will send the pair temporarily higher and I will TP there. If the data is indeed a beat, I can hold this trade longer, maybe to end of day. Technical levels: - Support: 149.0 - Resistance: 149.5-150
Long
by vietbach1990
ETHUSD scenario Since there is significant pressure in the cryptos until Aug 1st, I expect ETHUSD to sell a bit more. Not that it is not enough. There is significant buying at 180s, and orders at 160s. Scenariocast is: The key levels of significance 120 and 220 to become a band whilst keeping its move within the falling wedge until reaching August 1st.I find it likely to see a dip at 120 usd and a bounce back to 160s. And an uptrend from 160s, first facing profit taking at key level 220s. If for some reason it does that, there will have been an inverted H&S with a neckline at 220s and 320s target, which is another key level.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Birtan
1