Scenario: return by means of "Fiffi" theory @ USD/TRYUSD / TRY is already triple (D1-H4-H1) overbought. If the the first D1 candle close above the north BB, the course probably turn to the middle band. Target price is 7.30000. Technical resistance: 8.50000 (magic number)
The currency pair can turn earlier, if the TCMB make a verbal or non-verbal intervention. Be prepared!
Scenario
EUR/NZD Bullish Scenario / Top-Down Analysis🔸 4H CHART EXPLANATION:
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🔸Price bounced at the Daily Support Zone.
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🔸It has broken the Descending Trendline.
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🔸We need a breakout of the Resistance Zone to confirm the bullish view. The potential target is the next Resistance level at 1.8200.
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🔸 Will look for a lower timeframe bullish setup.
🔸 DAILY CHART ANALYSIS:
ETHEREUM SCENARIO ANALYSIS|
bigger picture
ETHEREUM IS TRADING BELOW A STRONG WIDE RESISTANCE LEVEL.TO BREAKOUT OR TO SINK? THAT IS THE QUESTION
(1) A 1+3 scenario link seems most plausible
(2) The price getting within the wide resistance will be in a range for a while, as part of scenario 2
(3) ETH might tank to collect stops and retest the lower or higher bound support levels
(4) Trade from key levels, depending on the scenario the price is acting out
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BITCOIN STRUCTURE ANALYSIS| BULLISH TRIANGLE
closeup view
big picture
BITCOIN IS TRADING IN A BULLISH TRIANGLE, TESTING A RESISTANCE LINE
(1) BTC can either breakout up and go higher
(2) OR it will retreat back to the comfort of a newly gained support
(3) Bullish breakout is more tradable as the breakout can be clearly identified
(4) But wait for the breakout to be confirmed!
(5) Picking BTC from the lower support will be a great trade too!
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EURUSD - what to expect next week (24-28 Aug)After a month of sideways price action, it is amost time for EURUSD to pick a direction.
Indeed, as we can see, the price will face a compression soon as the ascending trendline and the channel midline are about to meet. This attention area is indicated by the orange triangle. The direction of the breakout will most likely indicate which side of the channel be broken also.
This compression will lead the breakout to reach the respective target box.
Scenario at play | Mid term: BTC to 15K USDScenario still at play. 1 BTC = 14-15K USD for September-October-November of 2020 following simple trend inertia guided by ascending channel on weekly candles.
Azarous funamentals
Predominance of buying volume overall. Selling volume is only higher when it hits, but immediately after this, steady and considerable amount of buying volume, shows up for various consecutive days. (See it by yourself in daily candles.)
The amount of BTC 'hodlers' has been recently hitting all-time records, signaling a bullish market sentiment for BTC:USD.
Whenever we see price dropping it, we see quick buying and pumping, during those short-lasting dips in price.
Please press like if you agree with the basic idea. Cheers!
Bitcoing holding signaling bullish market sentiment
- cointelegraph.com
- nairametrics.com
- www.tradingandinvestmentnews.co.uk
EURO-DOLLAR SCENARIO UPDATE|STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
EURUSD has peaked at 1.19, breaking out of the strong resistance in red, yet failed to seal the gains and rolled back, unwinding the breakout.
However, the diagonal 11 year treandline is certainly broken, as the weekly candle closed above it.
Therefore, there are three scenario for the EURUSD in the near future
SCENARIOS:
Scenario 1- the most likely one: the pair will be bouncing beck and forth between the red resistance and the diagonal trendline, having that as a form of diagonal correction. It is however necessary for the diagonal support to be broken.
Scenario 2- As the diagonal support is unbroken, it is possible for the red resistance to get broken again and the 1.19 level to get retested, forming a double top. 1.19-1.20 level for EURO is economically unsustainable, thus I don't think that the pair can stay there for long
Scenario 3-EURUSD finally goes back below the trendline, to the green support, as a from of manifesting a realization that the latest breakout was a temporary matter.
Scenario 1 gives great opportunities for both longs and short, allowing us to trade the reverse triangle, but wait for the diagonal support to be broken.
Thank you for reading, like and subscribe and have a nice day!
Gold technical analysThe gold has just come out of this form of right-angled upward widening, if this rise is clearly supported by the psychic zone of 1800, then gold will most likely go towards the goals: 1895/1930 / 1955. But be careful, if the price returns to the form of enlargement, this would mean that it was a deceptive breakout and gold would fall around 1670 and even less, it is an unlikely scenario but it is not to be ruled out.
GOLD ANALYSIS|MARKET MAKERS DEAL|THREE SCENARIOS EXPLAINED
Hello friends,
To begin with, Gold is clearly in the uptrend on monthly, weekly and daily timeframes. Therefore shorts work with smaller probability. Just keep that in mind.
The asset is near a very important level of 1800 and the area around it, so some accumulation before a breakout attempt is expected. We are currently trading in a range , which is crossed by a diagonal support line.
I am convinced that the 1800 level will be tested sooner than later, so It might be so that the diagonal support stands and we see the red resistance breakout and then we might go long after pullback.This is a scenario when there is no volumes left to collect on these levels, and market makers will push the market higher, speeding up the events. That is scenario 1(black arrows)
However, this would be too easy, and the alternative scenario(blue arrows) is that the diagonal support gets broken and the range trading continues for some time.
This scenario is easy to trade, with the key question being: which way does the range go in the end. Well, the answer is that trading is probabilistic so we cant know, and therefore we will trade the range until a breakout either way. If the range breaks out higher, then the long scenario is valid again.
By the way, ranges are the ideal money making setups for market makers, which is more obvious in stocks, but remains valid for other assets too. Ride small waves, spook retail traders and collect the stops.
Scenario 3, is a breakout lower, and a short after a pullback. Gold market makers need liquidity and should they get a chance, read, if the buying is sloppy, they will push the mkt below the level, to collect retail traders stops and ride a way down to collect the volume. There, the market will accumulate strength to finally test the 1800 level/area.
Thank you for reading. Like and subscribe if you want more analysis.
EURUSD SCENARIO BREAKDOWN
The pair has bounced off the the local high and is now at a local support level.
There are two scenarios presented on the charts. First one is the bounce up scenario, with the subsequent return back down and breakout of the support with the second scenario then being a also a continuation of the first one in some sense.
The second one implies an immediate breakout and a correction lower to the first meaningful level.
I am highly skeptical of the continuation of the euro rally and I am convinced that a correction is overdue. Therefore, Both scenarios imply an ultimate move down.
Guys, Like, subscribe and comment.
I wish you all the best of luck in your trading.
USD/CHF Bearish View by ThinkingAntsOk🔸 WEEKLY CHART EXPLANATION:
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🔸 Price was rejected at the pullback to the broken trendline.
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🔸 Now, it is facing the Support Zone.
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🔸 We consider that if price breaks this zone, then it has potential to reach the next Support Zone at 0.9200.
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🔸 Will look for a lower timeframe bearish setup.
🔸 4H CHART ANALYSIS:
GOLD SUPER LONG-TERM SCENARIOS EXPLAINED GOLD is unstoppable right now and is soon to storm the 1800 key level.
The only question is- what we get to see:
1- An optimistic scenario, drawn with a green line, where there is a retest of support after a breakout towards 1900, and then a strong move up into the 2300/2500+ in 2-3 years.
OR
2-A pessimistic scenario, drawn with a red line, where the breakout turns out to be a false one and GOLD returns below the 1800 level and gets stuck in there for another accumulation period for another 5-10 years.
It is clear by now, that the general uptrend will continue and that a super long term outlook is certainly bullish, but just how bullish is a question for 8 trillion dollars, which is the current total gold market cap.
It is clear that the 1500 level is the new absolute bottom, and that we will never see gold cheaper than that again, so should gold choose the second scenario then buy near 1500-1600 level.(unless Earth isn't hit by a massive asteroid full of gold anytime soon)
An example of what trading will look like in a pessimistic scenario can be seen in the blue rectangle around the lower accumulation zone.
The fundamentals beyond the gold growth are the usual culprits: central banks printing money, fears of inflation, the increased demand for a safe haven other than dollar, negative rates and, possible stagflation.
There is a remote potential for the gold to come back as a funding vehicle, when people, companies and states will be borrowing and transacting in gold. That would have us see gold=10.000 and more.
Guys, hit that like button to support me, subscribe for more analysis and comment, what do you think? Share your experience and wisdom with us!
Wish you all good luck in your trading!
Scenarios for Bitcoin Based on Elliott WavePessimistic Scenarios (Red colour)
If bears break a low made in 2018, that will mean the road is open to as low as 1000 USD and they have control over bitcoin.
Scenario in blue colour, we should finish 5th wave and I am expecting that we should get below 3800 USD one more time. I think bulls are setting up a trap and they wouldn't let the market get below 3200 USD level, from 3700/3200 USD prices the market will try and draw 3rd wave on the graph (green colour), which is about 15500 USD to 16500 USD, if that will happen the bulls have a chance to break 20000 USD important resistance level.
If we don't break 20000 USD (black colour), we can't expect 3rd bull wave to open the road to 30000 USD and higher prices.
I hope everything is clear on my thought, if not please ask questions
AMAZON MID-TERM POSSIBLE SCENARIO SPECULATION A cautious look at what Amazon's share price behavior might look like mid/semi-long term.
As it is evident from the chart, AMZN is currently trading near all time highs in a range, which is most likely unsustainable, given the upcoming recession.
I say we might see Amazon retrace back to it's two year mean price within a 1600-2000 range. 1800-1900 level seems to be the most appropriate for the stock during the coming turbulent times.
Short term, we might see a small long due to the bounce back from the range support line.
If the S&P500 opens with a big gap down on Monday, however, the range might be broken and the above written scenario might come into play.
If it does not, the in-range trading will continue for some time and then follow this scenario when the broad market starts falling again.
I might be quite wrong tough, and it is quite possible that Amazon will come out of this recession with a 5000 share price.
That is why, this is not a trade suggestion, but a scenario analysis.
Please, Support my work with a like, guys! I really appreciate your effort and it really helps me!
Wish you luck.
Break me out before you drop!✴️ BTC Update
What the hell's that BTC doing? We've been rejected twice under the 7450, which is pretty bearish, but still no massive drop.
The daily technical situation is still positive while the technical indicators are negative on the 4h horizon. On the 1h timeframe, the WaveTrend has just given a buy signal, which does not rule out a short-term rise.
📈 Trend follower?
Still positive in the daily and negative in the 1h and 4h timeframes.
👉 What to do?
Even if Bitcoin doesn't do much at the moment, our scenarios are ready you know me guys! So we have two big possibilities for action, maybe even three.
The first, Bitcoin breaks the 7500 - 7600 zone and moves far enough away from that level, forms a higher high and retraces. In this case we will open a pullback position.
If the Bitcoin fails to close, at least in 4 hours, with enough space, it will be a false breakout/liquidity grab and therefore a bearish sign. We will open a short position on retest of the 7470s. If the 7200s are broken down, this will also be a great spot to open a short on retest position.
While waiting for either one to break, we'll take our cursor off the trader button and wait for the guys! Have a nice day 😉
18.3.2020 - Bitcoin (BTC / USD)Hi Traders!
The history of cryptocurrencies will certainly remember the last week as a tragic one and therefore we will discuss bitcoin again today.
In the last analysis, we also marked the lower trend line on the chart. Probably, no one expected it to be tested just a couple of days later. At the moment, we are probably on the strongest trend line and on key levels.
There are 3 strong supports awaiting:
1. Last LOW - $ 3,234
2. 2017 Swing - $ 2,976
3. Swing LOW from 2017 - $ 1,801
Where's the bottom?
This is probably the basic question often followed by another question - when is the best time to buy? However, no one knows the answer to these two questions. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are experiencing economic collapse for the first time in their history. Although Bitcoin came into existence in 2008 (during the last financial crisis), it was of no value at that time and trading volumes were practically close to nothing.
The crypto fundament is now secondary, as well as halving. On the Internet, there is a growing belief that the price cannot fall further due to the mining process. The truth is, in the short-term the price may still decrease.
What's next?
At the moment it's best to simply wait and possibly buy for a long-term hold. Problems in the world won't be solved quickly. The most important thing, for now, is to keep the trend line. If we break it downwards, we would follow the listed supports, where we would set up purchase orders.
May the crypto be with you!
11.3.2020 - Bitcoin (BTC / USD)Hi Traders!
Today we're looking again at bitcoin, but this time with the long-term lenses.
Currently, halving comes out on May 11, 2020, and many people have speculated based on the past that if history repeats, we should grow before halving. Subsequently, in the halving period, we would slightly decline (even consolidate) and grow again. The bitter surprise is that halving is around the corner and bitcoin is falling. So we offer 3 basic scenarios.
1. Bullish scenario
Right now we are near the bottom and the lower trend line will support us. A bounce will come from there, and we'll climb towards the top of the trend line, we can get through it and get into the bullish zone. There is also strong resistance around the trend line.
2. Bearish scenario
In this case, the lower trendline won't support us and we'll break it down. This would be an extreme bearish situation, we cannot fully imagine what would follow then. But we have to take it into consideration.
3. Complete triangle fill-up
Two basic trend lines make up a triangle together and it's possible that we could bounce off the bottom and go up to the top line, where rejection would come across and we would go back to the bottom and the final decision would take place there. However, this move could take up to 3-4 months and would be very challenging for trading.
Which scenario do you find the most likely? To us, the last one, because both bullish and bearish scenario represents huge extremes even for cryptocurrencies.
May the crypto be with you!