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Santarally

SPY Price action is a bit different this time aroundUmmm, the fast and short answer is that I am overall bearish on the SPY and anticipate we ultimately get rejected from this ATH (all time high) trendline ...however, it is starting to get complicated, lol. Disclaimer: Be aware the following comments are just my observations and I am not a professional trader. I am school teacher by day and stock junky by night, lol. I just enjoy looking at the charts, doing light TA and occasionally making a little money, lol. Anyways, here we go: We have finally reached the major downward sloping trend line or what I call the all time high trendline (ATH). There is the possibility that we can get a slight push above the ATH (all time high) trendline (currently $408-$407.5) - with the more likely contested area being between $409 - $415. I’m still a bit confused as to why anyone would think SPY would ever "breakout" above of this downtrend now. Our government is aggressively trying to reverse inflation - a breakout would be fighting against their efforts. I know I've said this a few times before - but a breakout would be flirting with a bull market - and I guess if that were to happen, I'd imagine that the FED would not only continue interest rate hikes, but they would also become even more aggressive. With that being said, I guess it would be judicious for me to also explore the bullish side of all of this, lol. Price action has been unusual and unlike the past two occasions we’ve approached the ATH trendline, this time has been with tremendous momentum. Also, it’s worth noting we’ve been in the general trend line area for over 3 days. The first time we touch the trendline (March 29th) we spent about 24 hours before diving back down. The second time (August 16th) we were rejected immediately. However, this time around we tagged the trend line around 3-4 times and even broke above it one of those days. Here is a pic of the charts for comparison: This could mean nothing at all – but I do think it is important to note that this time around it has been different. Perhaps it is signaling that the bear market is near it’s end but we might have one more leg down coming. …Oh and I just want to address one more thing, lol. The “Christmas Rally” - for all those who might be confused about when Christmas rallies typically occur, here you go: “A Santa Claus rally describes a sustained increase in the stock market that occurs in the week leading up to Dec. 25.” Santa Claus Rally Definition (investopedia.com) A very real possibility is that SPY begins that leg down now (as in next week, lol), creates the ultimate bottom (possibly the $330 area) and then Santa comes along sometime after the 18th and saves Christmas – and the market, lol.
AMEX:SPYShort
by DansGoneFishing
3
Possible rally into start of new year, then bearish continuationRiding long for now various alt names and equities. Thinking Fed pivot could fuel a rally into year end, then a new stimulus will cause the rally to lose steam sometime late January. Will try to sell around then. Anticipating new lows in Q2 2023, looking to go long in the bottom range there around BTC 10-12k across various crypto names. Think equities will make new lows as well, or possibly double bottom near recent lows. #santarally
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by jordsan
SPX- surprise Rally aheadThe 5 th wave fall on 3rd Nov'22 had not moved down the index significantly. hence we must recall the wave count that ,the correction (5 wave downfall ) is completed in the form of a neutral triangle abcde. Provided the low of 3rd Nov'22 (3698) respected(should not break). If this is so, until 11th Nov, all 5 waves of Expanding triangle A,B,C,D,E has been completed, and a new recovery wave ABC (3 waves)will start. This may begin with a santa claus rally from 14th Nov'22
SP:SPXLong
by selvamB
3
🎅🎄SANRA RALLY in CRYPTO❗ What is it and why does it happen❓🔥🔥Hi friends! Today I have prepared an article for you about perhaps the most highly anticipated event of 2022. This applies to any market, but more so to cryptocurrencies. We will talk about 🎅Santa Rally. 📊 WHAT IS A SANTA RALLY❓ Santa Rally is a period in the market of cryptocurrencies, stocks and indexes before and a little after the New Year holidays ( mid-November to mid-January). This term came to the cryptocurrency market from the stock market. Now stocks show more strength than cryptocurrencies and have already started their growth and a small but "Santa Rally". 🚩 Cryptocurrencies continue to make lower lows (LL) due to the FTX case and strong fear among buyers.

 📊 WHY IS THE SANTA RALLY HAPPENING❓WHAT MAKES CRYPTO, STOCKS, INDIXES GROW IN THIS PERIOD❓ Usually, the 4th quarter (the last quarter of the year) is a period of big holidays, which means an increase in the number of sales in most companies in almost all sectors of the economy. Many people buy gifts, new equipment, etc. The growth of company profits triggers the growth of companies' stocks.

 Also, a certain number of people want to invest in any asset with the belief in its further growth next year. This is not a strong, but an additional factor why crypto and stocks are growing. Bitcoin quarterly returns(%). Bitcoin Q4 return marked in red. Additionally, I marker the Q1 in white to show you what happen to BTC after Santa Rally🎅 📊 WHAT HAPPENS IN THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET DURING SANTA RALLY🎅❓ There are 5 cases on the chart from 2017 to 2021 and 80% of them are quite successful. 🔥 2017: the end of the bull market, real Santa Rally🎅 I think that's when most of you knew about the cryptocurrency market. I hope that this is when you were selling crypto, not buying. 🔥 2018: the end of the bearish market, the beginning of the bull market. Consolidation of Bitcoin and volatility +-20%. We see something similar to that situation now. After that, there was another consolidation, after which Bitcoin rose to 14 k. 🔥 2019: the consolidation again before the local growth. A good entry point to spot positions, a strong level of support. After that, Bitcoin grew from 6k to 9k by 50% in just 1.5 months. What happened after this growth is already history. 🔥 2020: a great example of a Santa Rally🎅 December 2020 fell just in the middle of the bull market, when the price rose from 20k to 33-35k in just a few weeks. 🔥 2021: also a consolidation, but this example is quite unusual for a Santa Rally. Usually, after consolidation, Bitcoin grew, at least locally. ✅ As you can see from the examples, the Santa Rally🎅 period was quite successful from 2017 to 2020. In December, there was always either consolidation before growth or strong growth itself. And only in 2021 there was a consolidation before the fall, not before the growth. This shows how much the cycle has "deviated from it's course". Most likely, that December should have ended with the final growth, but the problems with the economy in the United States, the strengthening of the dollar and other more minor problems did not allow Bitcoin to do it. 

 📊 WHAT WILL BE THE SANTA RALLY🎅 IN 2022❓ Bitcoin spent 3 out of 5 cases in consolidation, and in the other 2 cases showed strong growth. This means that in high probability, consolidation is the most likely option. Fortunately, there was no big drop in December. ✅ 

Friends, in this idea you have learned what the Santa Rally is, why it happens. Now you know with a high probability what will happen now in 2022, so you can already make your trading plans. Traders, was this article useful? What is your opinion about Bitcoin at the Santa Rally🎅 in 2022? It would be interesting to know the thoughts and expectations of my subscribers! 💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade
by Yuriy_Bishko
5
Cautious Optimism Into the New YearCautious Optimism best describes my feelings about how this santa rally will end. Santa Musk continues to mess with shorts as he unwinds his options Tranches. Is he done yet? who knows, but it's fun to watch. As for futures, a fairly balanced day yesterday. After the bull run we had, one should expect a cooling off period. If RSI on the 4hr bounces off 64.5 like it did in OCTs rally I would expect the sleigh ride to keep running through the new year. Overnight both Bitcoin and Futures were flat. Going into Dec 31, I was expecting weakness as a result of JPM trade But over at SpotGamma youtube he explains a different impact. twitter.com TLDW: Dealers will need to cover shorts on futures. Futures go Up... My expectations is flat today, then short squeezes and volatility into the new year. Maybe a few more all time highs My Observations. Not Financial Advice. Happy New Years traders. trade smart.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
Total Market ProfileVolatility Contraction Pattern Trade Closed I closed my Volatility Contraction Pattern trade yesterday before closing. 1 reason was that bitcoin started selling off at 12pm, and I’ll get to the reason later. SANTA RALLY Dec27 to Jan 3rd The Santa rally that started early (DEC20), continued into the overnight as the 3 am Buy the Dip crew continued raising the all time high bar that may continue as high as 4825 - 4865 Gamma Spotgamma is a great source for +/- gamma information. According to spotgammas latest tweet, all the indexes have shifted to positive gamma flows bringing even more contraction of volatility. Note that a lot of gamma expires in SPX and other indexes DEC31 and may trigger an early end to the santa rally. Bitcoin Correlation I added the bitcoin difference script to this market profile chart and started adding a dot plot on the monthly low of bitcoin. You will notice bitcoin bottom shares S&P bottom for the month within 12 hours DEC3-4 Compare days like DEC 13-15 and you can see the similarities. With that in mind, bitcoin broke trend with SPX at 12pm yesterday and began a 6.6% selloff. Market Profile Dot Plot I added a new dot plot to bottom of my market profile chart. The time dot plot shows the outcome of overnight 3am Buy the Dip and regular trading hours. The 2nd line is bitcoin. I will be adding some more dots for indicators like volatility, greed, skewness, put/call ratios, yield curve, distribution ranges and more. The general idea will be to create a total market profile that is easy to read and provides insight for the trading days ahead. My plan is to create a script that will automate the plots in realtime. Disclaimer Posts are my ideas and observations and do not constitute financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
Santa Rally VS Fed Policy in a Box Last week was a great week if you were a bull. TSLA and SPY squeezed past a bear market despite overwhelming fear and uncertainty. Santa Musk continues to sell past the original 10B he said he would, early speculation is he is at 15B and will continue to unwind . We could see more short squeezes as a driving factor. I've noticed a pattern start to emerge in S&P futures as consolidation occurs overnight at the previous days point of control and massive short squeeze during regular trading hours (RTH) around 9-10am. Another pattern I noticed in overall indexes is that bitcoins price overnight and early into the next day give an early indication of sentiment (buy or sell) so I created a script to show the difference in bitcoin open/close for the specified time period. Don't count on it though, but I have added it to one of my early morning checks to decide if I'm buying or selling during RTH. Finally, Volatility Master Cem Karsan tweeted over the holidays about the Feds policy in a box. He is basically saying the Fed has been exposed and trapped to do anything about an impending recession. I created a chart to illustrate what he was tweeting about the Feds policy in a box. An important date coming up is January 19th and VIX Options expiry date. I suspect we'll see another unpinning of VOL like we saw after the Thanksgiving Weekend. regardless of what happens. the market is getting spicy. You can see the range expansion CEM has been talking about (SUMO market) with wider distributions (up and down). These are my observations only. Not Financial Advice. Trade Safe.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
On Target. Megaphone to Santa Rally. 4800 Before 2022? 📣This a follow-up to my last post. Strong seasonality along with heavy put buying has helped this market drift higher. JPM Hedge Collar drawdown seems less likely. As long as no shock factors happen, I see 4800 by year end. After this strong week, I see some consolidation happening before the next pushes up. First resistance is the ATH, I can see it blowing right past it on its way to 4800. Levels are previous resistance which now serve as support. Some stronger than others. When the market is moving like it is and traders keep thinking "this can't keep going higher". Put buying ends up increasing which causes market makers to buy more to hedge, in essence it adds fuel to the rocket fire. I can see this continuing after a brief cooldown period on Monday. Happy Holidays!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by tohsined
SP500USD - bullish outlookHello all, For the past few weeks indices were fluctuating crazily due to Fed, ECB, Bank of England and all other market expectations. Now the SP500 index is reaching the structural ATH while forming a clear and nice double bottom pattern. There is a good chance to enter this bullish rally on the retest of the above mentioned structural level. Good luck! If you like this idea, please, like and subscribe! :) Disclaimer: This is not a trading advice or signal. Any risk related to trading this index is solely on you. Please, think thoroughly before making any trading decision. Cheers! :)
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Barysbyek
3
NAS100USD - entering the bullish rallyHello all, For the past few weeks indices were fluctuating crazily due to Fed, ECB, Bank of England and all other market expectations. Now the Nasdaq index is reaching the structural ATH while forming a clear and nice double bottom pattern. There is a good chance to enter this Santa Claus rally of 2021. Good luck! If you like this idea, please, like and subscribe! :) Disclaimer: This is not a trading advice or signal. Any risk related to trading this index is solely on you. Please, think thoroughly before making any trading decision. Cheers! :)
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Barysbyek
S&P 500 – The final combat zoneObservations: 1) Trend line from April 2020 till date is respected 4 times in the post corona rally. Present support point of the same is at 4514. 2) 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg (from Oct 4 - Nov 22) is at 4511 3) Gann Fan line 4/1 is intersecting 50% level as at (2) above at 4511. Conclusion a) SPX has crucial support zone at 4495-4510 from where some relief rally can be expected. The last hope for Santa rally, if any. b) If this zone is broken decisively, accelerated pace of downfall can be expected. SP:SPX
SP:SPX
by Rajesh_Ramchandani_Delta
2