SBER bullish signal to watch .For now It seems that SBERBANK might be heading towards the 190-193 area to bounce up from there but as long as it doesn't close considerably below the red line , MOEX:SBER is very likely to go upwards to around the 238 IF it breaks the green line at around 206 considerably and closes above it . I think it's a key area to watch for people willing to buy .One of the early signs indicating a strong probabily that we will break above the 206 area would be a strong break of the 200 mark and a closing of the market considerably above the 200 .I would say it would be wise right now to HOLD MOEX:SBER until further notice .
Russia
USD RUB for balance russian budgetI expect continue bearish trend for russian ruble, from non official russian central bank source: for 30 JUNE usdrub will about 87, according to budget rule sold reserves, I expect a new wave of devaluation some time after the vote for savage changes to the Constitution
OGZD Gazprom - Russian CompanyGazprom is stopped by a resistance level at 5.223.
Simultaneously, price seems to recover respecting the upper trendline. Possible price stabilization to be reached around 4.867 at the end of May 2020.
If price breaks resistance level at 5.223, then expect price to reach next resistance level at 5.671 (Level that correspond to 50 % of Fibonnaci).
TATNEFT High-Risk & High-Profit trading for 70+ daysAnalyze was requested by a Russian friend, who is a senior VR developer in a government company.
Here we are speaking about TATN.
We may need to wait up to 15 days to low prices. Nevertheless, also now an excellent time to buy some. Entry price from 371 rubs. To 533 rub. Any will be good till 30 of June.
Targets:
1st 600 rubs. 12% profit at least.
2nd 665 rubs. 24% profit at least.
Hold till mid of august. The idea will be updated.
Still lower oil price ahead?We finally got a joint statement on Sunday afternoon.
OPEC+ is willing to cut the global oil production in amount of 9.7 million barrels per day.
That’s very much but it has to be more.
The investment bank Goldman Sachs just recently said that they believe a cut as high as 15 million barrels per day will be necessary to push the oil price higher again and away from it's lows.
For the moment it looks like the statement can stabilize price but I don’t think that this will be sustainable.
Bad market environment caused by the corona virus and not enough cutting further on could lead to a lower oil price again. I even think it’s possible that we will test the last lows of the market and go deeper.
What we can see at the moment are oil prices where it makes no sense for the manufacturers to produce it, cause the cost of it is higher than the price when they sell it. So very bad situation.
On the other side they have to sell it to generate an income stream.
I guess thats also the reason why so many countries struggle to cut production at the moment, its a classic dilemma.
WTI Crude - An End to the Price War?Market has high expectations for OPEC+++
The stand-out event today is undoubtedly the OPEC+++ meeting, where producers will attempt to find agreement on output that addresses the collapse in demand and crude prices.
No one is winning in this environment but, as ever, each are losing to different degrees and have a different ideas on how it should be resolved. I don’t think a grand deal is as nailed on as markets would have us believe but, as ever, common sense should prevail.
If a substantial deal is going to get over the line, the US must play a part in some form. It is currently hoping that a market-driven, forced production cut will be enough to convince other producers to cut but I’m not sure that will be enough. Other assurances will be necessary to get Russia on board, which is the biggest risk to a deal.
That said, traders have heavily bought into this potential deal, following President Trump's tweet last week. The risk now is not just whether a deal is done but, if it is, will it be enough? I'm not sure a 10 million barrel cut will be enough to hold the gains and even 15 million may just about given the demand destruction we've seen.
Should we see above 15 million barrels, it could give the oil price a big boost, with the break of $30 in WTI potentially being the catalyst for another big move higher. The next notable level above here is $35 and if producers want to see higher than this, the cut may have to be closer to 20 million and include the US in some form.
Oil has jumped today on reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a deal on cuts of up to 20 million. The headline sounds good but the small print may not read quite as well. Should this be confirmed without any drawbacks in the fine print, I'd expect oil prices to rise more than they have.
There's always the risk of "buy the rumour, sell the fact" strategies going into these things which is why the detail and believability is so important.
From a technical standpoint, this looks like a market that's bottomed and just waiting to pounce above $30, but for that we need confirmation. A break above $30 says traders are satisfied with the cuts, at which point we may be able to look upwards for the first time in a while.
Blood OilI think by end of day we will see a decent decline in oil. USO will test 4.5 by EOD as nerves grow on a OPEC deal. I don't believe a favorable deal will be achieved between Saudi, Russia, & US on Thursday, which fill further plummet oil. Saudi & Russia are looking to claw back market share from the US and want to see US shale belly up.
Russian RTS index: Worth to watch itLarge triangle could emerge to shape a huge consolidation.
Last wave E down is in progress. The trick is that it could be over already as last wave within a triangle could be short.
On the other hand it could retest the downside support to complete the pattern in the 650-700 area.
This option coincide with my idea that oil and ruble will drop one more time.
After that another strong passing move (impulse) could start there to reach 3000.
Russia ain't gonna die, it will be worth to buy.
Russia & Saudi deal on Monday = green light for marketsSCO is at a critical point right now. It seems that the large H&S has played out and quickly retreated after Trump tweeted about a potential deal between Saudi and Russia to cut oil production by 15 million barrels. No one knows exactly what the outcome of the OPEC talk occurring next Monday is going to be. If the plan falls through and political tensions escalate, then SCO will bounce hard. The demand for crude is very low and the supply keeps increasing! If the deal fails, and the important support level of $17.50 to $19.00 breaks, then expect major downside. It could go either direction Monday. Bitcoin and traditional markets are also at critical points based on technicals. My gut is telling me Russia might endure so US and Saudi experience more pain. Of course don't trade off my gut, I could be completely wrong! GLTA.
Oil Bullishness Likely to persist or Hangover about to end..We have seen that a massive upsurge in the oil prices in last trading session where oil has gained more than $5/bbl to touch highest level of $27.39/bbl, however this momentum was not sustainable and plummet from highest level to currently trading at $24.06/bbl 11:02AM (Pakistani Time). Therefore, this came to in a choppy session which force it to oscillate in range of $19 - $25 /bbl. This massive jump in the oil resulted amid news coming from USA regarding table talks between Saudia and Russia to build consensus about cut down the production by approx 10mn barrel a day to stabilize the oil prices, on the contrary, Russia officials didn't confirm this meeting yet which put pressure on Oil prices and force down to $24/bbl since the highest level.
STANCE would be "Stay Cautious" in long trades, oil will come down below $20/bbl mark and hit $15/bbl in our view. We are still intact with our initial stance on oil.
#Stockiest91
Buy The Rumor Sell Fact?So what I was thinking; Could this be a "buy the rumor sell the fact"? Dispite no actual deal, the oil market went up significantly. What if we have a "no-deal" tomorrow, or the cutback will only be by 5 million barrels. Anyway keep an one eye on the news and one eye on Trump's Tweets.
The Zimbabwe Industrial Index made record highs in 2007-2008.An era is ending...
The USA crime syndicate the FED said they would print infinite money to solve every problem.
"During the height of inflation from 2008 to 2009, it was difficult to measure Zimbabwe's hyperinflation because the government of Zimbabwe stopped filing official inflation statistics. However, Zimbabwe's peak month of inflation is estimated at 79.6 billion percent month-on-month, 89.7 sextillion percent year-on-year in mid-November 2008."
Taken from wikipedia
You can find the zimbabwean index chart easilly, it went up millions of percents I lost count.
Ah btw, since 2016 the indice went from 100 points to 1757 a 1757% increase.
The population got so desperate they even bought Bitcoins (and lost their money but being down 50% is better than being down 99%).
In 2015 the goverment of zmb used the usd as official currency and their stock market went up already, but in 2019 they switch back to their beloved ponzi scheme and it went parabolic again.
The country of Zimbabwe is not known to dominate the world and be super wealthy.
If running a country wide ponzi scheme worked they'd be rich, not one of the poorest countries.
The USA like every fiat experiment in the past (except the UK pound I guess - 500 years old and still rocking!) have lost their mind, print print print, print infinite money no matter what it takes keep stonks up.
Much of the USA wealth and dominance comes from them being a world reserve currency.
They could print money out of thin air and use it to buy real goods from foreign country, in the 19th century their growth came from europe investors represented by the Rothschilds every one heard of, in the 20th century their growth and wealth came from mainly eu & japan investors, as well as China selling them goods against money they print out of thin air (and that does not devaluate at super speed because they are the world reserve currency and foreign investors have the usd in high demand).
Until now. Look, Russia has been accumulating gold. Several central banks the main 2 ones being Russia and China the "obvious ones".
It starts with the "obvious" ones, we are in the disbelief phase, next slightly hostile to neutral countries will "manage risk" by selling dollars and buying gold.
Then neutral countries sell usd for gold, then allies that aren't the strongest allies. Then every one will be "euporic" and dump all of their USD for gold.
And in general foreign investors are slowly but surely losing their "safe haven" view of the USA.
Maybe one day the USA will be a promising emerging market...
They think the world will support their socialist agendas and free stuff for their people, little do they know...
The USD will get dropped and the world will at least move to chf & gbp, or maybe even what is called REAL MONEY, gold & silver.
Physical metals are in low supply, people have already been buying.
The suckers that are still looking to invest in the USA in my opinion will regret it.
The USA today are not a success story, they are the story of a declining empire desperate to buy time.
BTCUSD might go up. LOL. Who cares? Crypto investors might even shout hurray. Congratulations to them on getting more of something worth less.
I do not recommend shorting the indice the regular way. What I would do to short it would be to short it against gold.
Depending on your region idiotic regulations you might or might not be able to open a dji/spx-to-usd short and gold-to-usd long.
I would certainly not invest in US companies. Regardless of them printing infinite money or not.
I would much rather pick a country with a solid economy and probably bright future, like Singapore.
BRN Following the current situation we have 2 basic scenarios about oil price:
1. Yellow: USA already started some jawboning about support for their oil industry and etc, and we should not forget that normally such cautious talks are about to "measure" the possible reaction. So we wait here some possible reaction, probably going up till 40 and then falling again to retest the bottom.
2. Green: in this case we don't consider to see any huge up movement, but the slower continuation of going down.
Clashing forces on the supply sideHere we are tracking the continuation of the move down in Oil.
On the demand side, manufacturing is starting to slow and we are outguessing signs of the effects on the demand side. Equities wont be able to hold Oil up for too much longer, this is starting to look clearer by the day.
Prices will have to fall to offset the move in demand, once this starts coughing there is only one direction for Oil.
Best of luck
USDRUB to retest the top of Y2016 at 85.90Previous ideas reached the targets (see related).
But this pair didn't fully emerge therefore I expect it to retest the former top of Y2016 at 85.90.
It will be wave 5.
Wave 4 is unfolding now and it could be flat/zigzag or a triangle as in the larger degree preceding correction.
USDRUB to hit 80 after correctionThis pair hit the target set in my earlier post (see related).
But it looks like it is not yet done.
There is an ABC flat correction building on the chart and wave C down is pending.
After that the move up could emerge to hit 80 - at that level the large second leg would hit 1.272 of the first leg up
and 0.618 of the move preceding the current flat correction.