RUT Update for week ending 6 September 2019Week update for week ending 6 September 2019
In Bear territory.
Projected range for upcoming week 1505.17 - 1456.17
Price Projection:
HMA: Strong Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral Bear
Bear RSI: Bearish
BSI: Bearish
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.33 - 1533.49
Price-Trend: .4x ATR
Daily for 6 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1375
HMA: Neutral Bull
Bull RSI: Neutral Bull
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.84 - 1521.79
Price-Trend: .28x ATR
Comments: A change of chart views. Trying to clean-up from to much data what is presented.
Weekly charts are still bearish in a consolidation range. The Daily just became bullish on the 5th. But does it have the strength to continue.
Little to no reaction to the NFP and Chairman Powell's Q/A. No expecting the market to break the consolidation high this coming week.
What am I showing on this new(ish) chart?
Daily: 5 September, confirmed bull trend. But can it hold?
Weekly: Bear trend since week of 5 August.
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
Russell2000
NO BREAK! But SPY, DIA, and QQQ broke...The Russell ETF could not break out of consolidation, but the other 3 majors did break.
The Russell - being the major small cap index - is an indicator of risk. When the Russell is rising, investors are less fearful. When the Russell is falling, investors are cautious ... That's the basic concept anyways.
I think this Russell chart is showing that maybe people aren't as optimistic as Thursday's rocket ship would have implied. While the 3 biggest indexes broke through strong resistance pretty convincingly, the Russell stayed put ... it tried, but did not succeed. IWM also bounced off its 50 day MA.
In addition to that, Friday's close was less than impressive. I'm betting on at least a bearish start to next week, and possibly for the week as a whole. Jerome Powell, yet again, gave no clear-cut direction to the Fed's interest rate plans, leaving the market to wonder what's going on. All economic indications (and technicals) are pointing towards - at the very least - a strong market correction. I think Powell's speech, mixed with the very poor jobs report, put a bad taste in the markets mouth.
I bought some TVIX yesterday, because I'm thinking Monday might be a little ugly. Looking at this IWM chart makes me feel even better about my TVIX purchase ... for Monday anyways.
RUT Update for 5 September 2019
Daily for 5 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1535
HMA: Neutral Bull
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Neutral
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.84 - 1521.79
Price-Trend: .55x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for 4 September 2019
Daily for 4 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1406
HMA: Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Bearish
BSI: Neutral Bear
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.84 - 1515.34
Price-Trend: .5x ATR
Comments: Since the beginning of August (over 21 trade days), the markets have been stalled.
I have way to many neutral-bull one day, neutral-bear the next indicators happening. This is a strong indicator of a stalled/flat market.
When markets stall the values of the indicators at < 21 trade days become worthless and stale. Because of this, I have altered the charts now for 36 trade days or approximately 3 months.
The general base lines/trends are relatively the same, however we can now get indication of movement in the indicators since using additional data beyond the period of inactivity.
Much of the movement is emotional. Gap down for X-reason, Gap up for Y-reason. The major indexes are hitting against the resistance levels and may not have true underlying financial strength to exceed these values. They currently lack strong directional indication.
For this trade day, the markets gaped up due to news regarding removal of a extradition legislation in Hong Kong. Today expecting a gap up due to the announcement of renewed trade talks occurring in the next month. Consolidation level highs will be tested on most indexes. With possible return and re-establish of consolidation levels the following day.
Be cautious right now. The current financial indexes reflect strongly the lack of directional identity and hovering at the 21 day average.
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for 3 September 2019
Daily for 3 September 2019
In Bear territory.
Price Projection: 1449.42 - 1375
HMA: Neutral Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Bearish
BSI: Neutral Bear
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.84 - 1515.34
Price-Trend: .98x ATR
Directionally challenged due to world economic events. The market has been flat since ~August 5 and trading in a 1000 point range. Use weekly consolidation to identify current range.
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for week ending 30 August 2019Week update for week ending 30 August 2019
In Bear territory.
Projected range for upcoming week 1518.8 - 1465.23
Price Projection:
HMA: Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Bearish
BSI: Bearish
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.33 - 1533.49
Price-Trend: .685x ATR
Daily for 30 August 2019
In Bear territory.
Price Projection: 1515.50
HMA: Neutral Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Neutral
BSI: Neutral Bear
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.84 - 1515.34
Price-Trend: .18x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for 29 August 2019Daily for 29 August 2019
In Bear territory.
Price Projection: 1515.20
HMA: Neutral Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Bearish
BSI: Neutral Bear
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.32 - 1515.34
Price-Trend: .11x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for 28 August 2019Daily for 28 August 2019
In Bear territory.
Price Projection: 1437
HMA: Neutral Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Bearish
BSI: Bearish
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: Re-established between 1450.32 - 1515.34
Price-Trend: 1.01x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for 27 August 2019Daily for 27 August 2019
In Bear territory.
Price Projection: 1437
HMA: Neutral Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Bearish
BSI: Bearish
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: Broken to the low
Price-Trend: 1.74x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for week ending 23 August 2019Week update for week ending 23 August 2019
In Bear territory.
Projected range for upcoming week 1491 - 1430
Price Projection:
HMA: Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Neutral
BSI: Bearish
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1456 - 1533
Price-Trend: 1.55x ATR
Daily for 23 August 2019
In Bear territory.
Price Projection: 1422 - 1363
HMA: Neutral Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Neutral
BSI: Bearish
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1456 - 1515
Price-Trend: 1.92x ATR
Spent the week neutral. The Weekly is still holding on to that neutrality within the consolidation range. Current strength is demonstrating a push through the floor toward a pocket of 1422 - 1363. Generally this pocket is formed due to the neutrality and can tighten if strength continues.
RUT Update Week Ending 16 August 2019Week Ending 16 August 2019
The week is neutral bearish, the daily is bearish.
Projected range for upcoming week: 1464 - 1525
Weekly Data.
In Bear Territory.
Price Projection: Daily Only
HMA: Neutral Bull
BSI: Bullish
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Neutral
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: 1456 - 1533
Price-Trend: .93x ATR
Daily Data for Wednesday 16 August 2019
In Bear Territory
Price Projection: 1374
HMA: Strong Bear
BSI: Bearish
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Bear
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: 1456 - 1509
Price- Trend: .98x ATR
RUT Update 14 August 2019Daily Data for Wednesday 14 August 2019
In Bear Territory
Price Projection: 1374
HMA: Very Strong Bear
BSI: Bearish
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Bear
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation:Broken to the low side
Price- Trend: 2.45x ATR
Prices are now 2.45x ATR away from the mean. Expect some mean reversion (return toward the MAs) before any further movement.
Attached yahoo finance article regarding the futures position for the 15 August 2019. This is an example of set-up for a reversion to the mean. We may start there and fall or we may start low and move high. What ever the case may be. Prices don't like being 3x or more away from the mean.
RUSSELL 2000 1D RANGE TRADESRanges, Descending Triangles, Triangles, & Ascending Triangle are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Triangles and ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Ascending and descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending volume bars and descending atr line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size.
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
RUT Update week ending 9 August 2019Week Ending 9 August 2019
The week is bearish, the daily is bearish.
Weekly Data.
In Bear Territory.
Price Projection: 1434
HMA: Bear
BSI: Bearish
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Bear
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: Broken to the low side
Price-Trend: .6x ATR
Daily Data for Wednesday 9 August 2019
In Bear Territory
Price Projection: 1416
HMA: Strong Bear
BSI: Bearish
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Bear
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: 1533.49 - 1502.32
Price- Trend: 1.18x ATR
Projected range for upcoming week: 1466 - 1544
RUT Update week ending 2 August 2019Week Ending 2 August 2019
Weekly Data.
In Bear Territory.
Price Projection: 1486
HMA: Bear
BSI: Positive but declining
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Neutral
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: 1517 - 1586
Daily Data for Friday 2 August 2019
In Bear Territory
Price Projection: 1486
HMA: Bearish
BSI: Bearish
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: In Bear Territory
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: None
Projected range for upcoming week: 1487 - 1564
Post Rate Cut Update 31 July 2019RUT held on to its ground.
It had broken the consolidation to the high side on 30 July 2019.
31 July it re-established the consolidation zone, giving it a new high bar.
New consolidation zone is: 1543 - 1599
All three RSI (Bull, Bear, 5) are showing bullish strength.