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Education post 20/100 – How to trade better using Risk-Reward?Education post 20/100 – How to trade better using good Risk-Reward Ratio? Day Trading Win-Loss Ratio Most day traders focus on the win-rate or win/loss ratio. The allure is to eventually reach that stage where nearly all their trades are winners. Don't be fooled, having a high win rate doesn't mean you'll be a successful trader or even a profitable one. Your win rate is how many trades you win out of all your trades. For example, if you make five trades a day, and win three, your daily win rate is 3/5=0.6, or 60%. If there are 20 trading days in the month, and you won 60 out of 100 trades, your monthly win rate is 60%. The win-loss ratio is your wins divided by your losses. In the example, assume for simplicity 60 trades were winners and 40 were losers (100 - 60). This assumes there were no "flat" trades. The win-loss ratio is 60/40=1.5. This means you are winning 50% of the time more than you are losing. A win-loss ratio above 1.0, or a win rate above 50%, is favorable, but it isn't the only story. Day Trading Risk-Reward Ratios A risk-reward ratio is how much you expect to make on a trade, relative to how much you're willing to lose. Day traders want to be in and out of the market quickly, taking advantage of short-term patterns and trade signals. This typically means each trade will have a stop loss attached to it. The stop-loss determines how many cents, ticks or pips you are willing to risk in a stock, future or forex pair respectively. Assume you are willing to risk $0.10 on stock XZYZ, buying it at $10.00 and placing a stop loss at $9.90. Your risk is fixed at $0.10 (assuming no slippage), but you must be compensated for taking this risk with a potential profit as well. Your profit target establishes your expected payoff. Assume, based on your analysis or trading strategy that you believe the price will reach $10.20, at which point you will take profit, resulting in a $0.20 gain. Your potential reward is therefore twice as large as your potential risk. Your risk/reward ratio is $0.10/$0.20=0.5; in other words, your risk is half of your potential gain. If you take a profit at $10.10, your potential profit and risk are both $0.10, so the risk/reward ratio is $0.10/$0.10=1.0. If you take profit at $10.05 your potential risk is $0.10 but your reward is only $0.05. In this case, the risk/reward increases to 2.0 showing that you are risking more to make less. Balancing Win Rate and Risk-Reward in Day Trading Day traders must strike a balance between win rate and risk-reward. A high win rate means nothing if the risk-reward is very high, and great risk-reward ratio may mean nothing if the win rate is very low. Consider these guidelines when you start coming up with a day trading strategy or are looking to improve your day trading results: A higher win rate means your risk-reward can be higher. You can still be profitable with a 60% win rate and a risk reward of 1.0. You'll be more profitable with a 60% rate and a risk-reward below 1.0. A low win rate, 50% or below, requires winners to be larger than losers in order for you to be profitable. You can still be profitable with a 40% win rate if risk/reward is below 0.6 (excluding commissions). Ideally, if your win rate is below 50% strive for a risk/reward below 0.65, with the risk-reward decreasing the more the win rate drops. The more you lose, the bigger your winners must be when you do win. Day Trading at Your Peak Ratios Since day traders trade every day in all types of conditions (see How Often to Trade), most day traders should seek out a strategy that allows them to win between 50% and 70% of the time. Winning more than that becomes increasingly difficult with only minor additional payoff. This win rate allows for some flexibility in the risk-reward ratio. Strive to make a bit more on winners than you do on losers; ideally, wins should be about 1.5 times greater than risk - if risking $0.10 try to make at least $0.15. This risk/reward ratio is 0.67. Keep the risk/reward below 1.0, that way even if you have an off day, only winning 40% of your trades, you can likely still pull out a daily profit. Your ideal mix will depend on your trading style. But you don't need a very high win rate or a super low risk/reward ratio to be successful. Strike a balance, and strive for consistency.
Education
by GroundStoneHoldings
Would you risk 2500 USD to make 323 000 in 1000 days ?Hello, I would like to know if you would take the risk of loosing 2500 USD to make approx 323K This is highly speculative but very LOW RISK : HIGH REWARD trade for long term (1000 days) Is it worth it ? Why YES ? Why NOT ? Beark market continuation ? Bull reversal ? What do you think ? Glad to hear your opinions ** Please do not post pictures of other charts, I would like to keep this just as discussion othertwise the post will be flagged ** ** Always invest only what you can afford to loose & remember even 1K USD can turn into 32,3K which is still good profit same as investing 100 USD and risking 25 bucks to make 3230 USD ** ** This is educational IDEA not a trading advice & anyways allways invest only on your own decissuion** Thanks for taking a stop :) Wish you all nice and successfull day nor 1000 days BTW I´m LONG
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Anoinvest
4
Defined RR - WIth Strength to Support itThoughts: While the RR here is well defined something to consider is the follow through going forward due to complete retrace of the recent RSI breakout we just had. I Suspect this will limit the size of the next move to occur; however I have only limited data on the subject matter. Above the marked RSI level one might adopt the thesis that a new upward leg is beginning as a result of the newly begun RSI cycle. The reasoning behind the new RSI cycle, or rather "strength cycle", is due to overcoming the RSI level that led to the original break down in strength. Above this level the Stock in the near term should be in bull territory.
NYSE:PSALong
by gumbtg