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Short EURGBP - Bad EUR vs Good GBP DataToday is going to be a very slow day with little event to trade on. The most important news today is the UK and US' PMI number. Even though they are expected to be bad, my statistic shows it is a better odd for them to beat expectation. On the other hand, I think EUR will be negative although not by much. The sentiment for EUR, GBP and USD are: - EUR: Net Short, heaviest in EURJPY but EURCAD and EURGBP are Net Long - GBP: Net Short, heaviest in GBPJPY but GBPNZD is Net Long - USD: Net Long, heaviest in EURUSD but AUDUSD is Net Short I'd prefer not to take USD given the Tax discussion overhang. It has potential to gap USD. Choosing EURGBP for this quite day seems the most enticing risk-reward. I'm in and will hold the trade through the EUR and GBP data release. Technical level to watch: 0.88 - 0.875
Short
by vietbach1990
Short GBPCAD - Anticipating Dissappointing GBP News FlowMy statistical studies shows that GBP hard data release today is likely to be dissapointed. CAD will also have somewhat dissapointed data in my opinion, however relatively it will have the smallest "dissapoinment gap" amongst the Majors. In addition, today we will have 2 speeches coming out from MPC Member Broadbent and the BOE Governor Carney, both of whom has sent the GBP lower during their previous speech. Positioning wise: retails are shorting GBP with the most significant Short being GBPUSD and GBPJPY. For CAD, CAD is also net shorted with CADJPY the most shorted. I am already in and I do intend to hold this trade all the way today unless stopped out. My SL is 1.676 and there is no major TP (some interested technical level would be 1.665 and 1.660). Of course I may adjust throughout the days as the news are released.
Short
by vietbach1990
Long EUR - Anticipating Hawkish Draghi SpeechActually I do not believe Draghi's speech will be "very" hawkish. What gives me more confident to put this trade on is because the market may have oversold EUR. More particularly EURGBP (following PM Theresa May's last week comment). Retail sentiment is short EUR (except for the EURNZD - which is due to NZ's mixed election result) so I want to go Long. Technical levels: it is trading within the 0.879-0.88 support range (it has been a strong support since the GBP appreciation two weeks ago) and I put my SL below 0.875.
Long
by vietbach1990
Long USDJPY - Anticipating continue strengthening USI expected USDJPY continue to drift upward today. Yesterday FOMC statement and Yellen's speech certainly helped a lot. Today is BOJ's turn and I really don't think they will reverse anything as their 2% inflation target is just still too far away. Actually since USDJPY strengthening, it helped push them toward their goal a bit closer and I think they will be more than happy to add to the fire by hinting a neutral to further QE from their side of the trade. Sentiment wise, it's gonna be a bit hard to grasp as this is a tentative event. Nevertheless, from the Retail's positioning USD is net Long vs JPY mixed. In my opinion, this time the USDJPY is "under-longed". People should more bullish on this pair given the fundamental lined up and the Carry Trade potential. I'm long 1/2 position now and gonna go long another 1/2 if price retrace to the Open at 112.2. My SL is 111.9 and TP is 113.4.
Long
by vietbach1990
Long GBPAUD - Anticipating Good GBP Data NZD has strengthened across the board following the latest New Zealand election poll which places the ruling National Party in the lead with 46% of the votes and Labour behind on 37%. This is to me a much more a local issue and yet since AUD follows NZD closely, GBPAUD tanked too. Fundamentally, I am Bullish GBP and Neutral to Bearish on AUD, I'd like to fade the sentiment. In addition, given the general weak GBP and my expectation that Retail Sales will be a Beat, GBP may have some support going forward. I have not entered yet and will be in around half an hour leading to the event. In term of lined up events, both GBP and AUD does not have much. In term of technical level, I don't think it can go back to 1.72 without more significant news but maybe 1.7 is more achievable. My SL will be below round level at 1.675.
Long
by vietbach1990
Long USDJPY - Anticipating Dissappointing US DataBased on my statistics, the string of US data release will be dissappointing and the market so far sort of agree. The reason I want to go Long USDJPY is because if the market has priced in weakness and it match, there won't be much selling takes place. On the other if any of these data manage to surprise to the upside, I will be very happy. Why USDJPY? The strongest pair thus far is USDJPY and it's actually more of JPY move, if US data is as I expected them to be, USDJPY can have the next leg. TP is 111.92, SL is 110.5, I'm in half now and another halfif it retrace a bit to 111 round level
by vietbach1990
5
Long GBPAUD - Anticipating No Surprise to MPC VoteSo generally the MPC vote is expected to be Neutral and if we look through a bit, if it does comes out 7 Hold to 2 Hike as expected, GBP should be weaken. Now my intention is to look for clue if the market has already priced this in: on average, up to this point GBP is down with the most down being GBPAUD. Let's say the trend continues to in the next hour, my conclusion is the market has priced in the base case expectation. What I will do is to Enter Long GBPAUD as I bet if the outcome is Neutral GBP will rebound. The scenario where I will lose money will be not all of the results came out as expected i.e. one of those data point is even more bearish (increase in amount of APF, more than 0 dovish vote). Technical level: it is hovering around 1.6476 - 1.65, I will make Entry with Stop-loss below these, TP is around 1.6574 - 1.66
by vietbach1990
Short AUDUSD - USD Oversold heading into CPI DataMarket is Net Sell USD, thinking it's probably will miss the CPI data despite the base expectation of a beat. Now actually I think it does even need to beat the expectation rather just an on target outcome will be enough to send the USD higher. We just had the GBP release which are very good. Eventhough the vote was Neutral as expected, there was hint of BOE being closer to cutting down on their QE. Thus despite being the most over-extended I'd rather not go Short GBPUSD and instead choose AUDUSD to express my view. Again, this is the next most oversold USD pair and I think the early morning AUD is pretty much baked in and should be disregards. I entered Short at ard 0.8. My stop is above 0.818 and TP is depend on the intial re-action but I'd love to reach 0.7955
Short
by vietbach1990
Long GBPUSD - Anticipating a Good but not Great DataWe have USD PPI data coming up soon and I've been trying to decipher how the market may have anticipated this. Retail sentiment is Net Long of USD so my base expectation is unless its a better-than-expected number we shouldn't see too much of a jump in USD. Historically a beat is ~45% chances, going back to 2007 data. Now to position myself to the trade, there is a bit difficulty as I want to look the most extreme divergence to profit, GBPUSD looks particularly oversold (thanks to the mixed data releases this afternoon). On the risk management standpoint, I am still down on paper for my GBP long so I do not want to add too much GBP exposure here. I'm in 1.3276. SL is 1.323 and I expect this to move somewhat against me if the data is good or significantly in my favor if its a miss or just on target. CPI is the more important figure to watch and its for tomorrow.
Long
by vietbach1990
Long GBPJPY - Anticipating good Job DataThis is very simple thesis, I want to go long into the GBP expected good data. Yesterday CPI is a very good encouragement and the market should keep trending upward toward the Cash rate vote tomorrow. I missed the intial drift from Asian session. I'd wish I can get up earlier or devote more time for this but simply can't with my Full-time analyst job atm. Sentiment: GBPJPY is half-half, a bit short bias by retail. I think they are afraid the move is over-extended since yesterday jump. Well the truth is the pair moved for a good reason and likely continue to move rather than having any major retracements. I'm in at ~146.5, stop is below last round 1.46 (at ~1.4563) I have no particular TP as I intend to hold this all the way to Thursday. There are two high probability scenario: 1) Avg earning comes out good as expected => GBPJPY rally past but won't move much after and may even retrace in the US session, depends on the mood on JPY. 2) Data beats => the pair jump way past 1.47 and continue to head toward Pivot and Round level 1.49.
by vietbach1990
Long GBPUSD Anticipating good GBP's Data (Double Trade)This is related to my Long GBPNZD trade. As mentioned I thought GBPNZD is a bit over-extended but again I want to go with the fundamental Long GBP story anyway. Amongst all the GBP pair, GBPUSD is the one retails are net Short and I hope to bank as their SL gets hit. Fundamentally though I do understand some of their view as also think USD is supposed to get stronger, just that the GBP has more/better news release this week. I'm actually not in yet and instead put a Limit at 1.3165, SL is below the Pivot and round level of 1.315. TP at 1.32 seems the easiest to achieve but depends on the GBP news reaction.
Long
by vietbach1990
Long GBPNZD - Anticipating good GBP's Data (Double Trade)I had a really tough time choosing which pairs to trade for this news. Early morning the surprisingly dissapointed Business Confidence releases sent both AUD and NZD lower. As these two are the ones I've consider short against GBP I now face with a dilemma. If I am to go full Short now, I have a little to bank as the move may have overextended but then again this is in line with Fundamental thus provides the path with least resistance. Retail sentiment today provides little clue too as it is in line with GBP fundamental, limiting my edge as a contrarian. This is why I only entered 1/2 a position. I'm in at 1.8226, SL below Pivot 1.8212 and Round level 1.82, the best TP is around 1.83 level.
Long
by vietbach1990
NZDCAD - CAD oversold leading heading into good dataNZDCAD erased all the gains from CAD rate hike. NZD is a high yield currency so understandably if they gain significantly against low yield currency such as USD but to gain a lot against another commodity currency such as CAD is puzzeling to me. Next week there is not much news for both NZD and CAD but the most significant data left this week is the CAD employment data which is expected to be good for CAD. The general price action so far today has zero consideration for this in my opinion. I checked sentiment all across CAD pairs and it's a general sell-off, leading by USDCAD but the actual most gain so far today is NZDCAD so I thought the odd to go short from here is better. Technical wise, it is re-testing the resistance at 0.885 round level and Pivot 0.886. I will enter Short here. Stop is above the Pivot and TP is around 0.878 level.
Short
by vietbach1990
USDCAD - Waiting for CAD Rate AnnouncementThe USDCAD pair has been sideway after a quick drop and rebounce as 3 of the Fed members spoke dovishly. Today is gonna be a big day for CAD. Generally since Bank of Canada is expected to keep rate, the hint will be in the statement so we may see a bit more volatility back and forth during the announcement as people figuring out their next move. Looking forward on the calendar we generally have good numbers coming out for CAD while USD has some mixed signal with Trade Balance expected to be worsen while ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI expected to be good. Overall sentiment is bearish for USDCAD in my opinion, I would expect USDCAD to drift downward or flat toward news announcement. The IG Sentiment has Net Long so again, this makes me bearish. In fact if the USDCAD proceed to rise until nearer the rate decision, I will look to go Short as this provides very good risk-reward. Technical level to watch is round number 1.24 and 1.23, Weekly Pivot 1.2377.
Short
by vietbach1990
AUD/USD - A Possible Short Term FallIn this 1 Hour chart we can see a good downtrend and a pair of major and minor resistance levels as well as two major support levels .It is more likely and possible to fall short after price touching the trend line and it will probably sell up to to the round number present there 0.78800 and the price is likely to reverse and retrace up to the round number level 0.79400 near the resistance level because there is a solid support level present near the round number 0.7800 .Anyway a short sell is possible but a buy around 0.78800 would be too early to predict. NOTE :- I am not a Pro Trader,just a beginner.Show my mistakes and help me to learn.Just an analysis. Thanks.
Short
by Isuru_M
Ripple interesting price action 4H chart Bitcoin is on the rise when I'm posting this idea. Orange ticks marked double bottom formation which is holding pair above this level. As you can see important Fibonacci level 38.2% (combined with round number 3K) was rejected 13th of April. Pair is in consolidation for few weeks. Market is respecting support at 2600 which could be use as the Stop Loss area. It is seems to me that pair is trying to leave triangle which is suggesting bullish movement. Theses days shorts on any crypto are not really good idea in my opinion. There is more chance that pair will go north or consolidate then will go down. The 38.20% area is important here and if broken it will increase chance that pair will hit 61.80%. I see three possible outcomes here : (I'm think that first two are much more possible than the last one) 1.Pair will break 2600 and go down to meet 200 ema and or 2000 level just to bounce back 2.Pair will never touch the support again and will go north towards 61.80% level 3.Pair will go down break the support 200 ema 2000 level and will try to reach 1k.
Long
by Krystiannwk
4
Bunch of clues on EURCADHi guys, i've already published few days ago an idea on this pair. Unfortunately we weren't able to take advantage of that idea, but now price has given us a second chance. It has came back to retest the daily structure level (that also lines up with the 618 retracement and a round number) and has formed a nice pinbar showing us some buying rejection. The divergence on the RSI additionally confirm our view. Stop below the low, (conservative) targets as illustrated above. If you want to share your view or simply ask questions, feel free to comment below. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Long
by Roker1
Another long opportunity on EURCADHi guys, i've already published few days ago an idea on this pair. Unfortunately we weren't able to take advantage of that idea, but now price has given us a second chance. It has came back to retest the daily structure level (that also lines up with the 618 retracement and a round number) and has formed a nice pinbar showing us some buying rejection. The divergence on the RSI additionally confirm our view. Stop below the low, (conservative) targets as illustrated above. If you want to share your view or simply ask questions, feel free to comment below. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Long
by Roker1
ETCETH possible trend reversal engulfing candle and round numberWe can see here engulfing candle which established resistance for further losses. Engulfing candle alone is not a strong trend reversal signal but with round number (which seems to be much respected by crypto community) could be good point to enter with long position. It is possible that if price go north it will find strong selling pressure around GAP which is located at 0.080000. If the pair will manage to go thru that level it will most likely reach 0.10000. Safe SL would be small bit below shadow of the bearish candle from 17 of March with TP just before GAP.
Long
by Krystiannwk