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Rising Wedge

Bitcoin "Normal" Bear Market TargetingTLDR: We have at least another 40-50% downside if the pattern holds Introduction Bitcoin and crypto has some fierce bear markets that can really affect people's psychology. To that end I think it would be helpful to show people a general pattern I have noticed and have been using to help me do my personal battle planning. Two Simple Indicators The NVT by aamonkey This version of the NVT dynamically paints zones on the NVT so you can recognize when the price of bitcoin is high or low compared to the number of transactions it is pushing through. Despite all the noise about what bitcoin is, the blockchain is a decentralized payment network and the currency of that network can either be expensive or cheap compared to the number of transactions being run on the network. When the NVT enters the red area it is a sign that a bubble is going to form and there are going to be a lot of of higher highs inbound. Once price has gotten above the upper red limit the party is about over. When it reenters the yellow band the bear market begins in earnest. Lots of trades can happen but ultimately the direction is down. Historically accumulation begins when the NVT is in the green. When the NTV starts to make its way out of the green area accumulation is broadly done and the cycle begins again. The Gaussian Channel The Gaussian channel default has a look back period of over 144, which means it is a very slow and very lagging indicator for what the average price was. So if price is at the center line of the the channel then the average price of bitcoin was roughly the same over 144 periods. Price is now below the centerline, which means that it is roughly down over the last 144 periods. When price falls out the bottom of the channel the channel turns red and we can expect a 40-50% drop. Limited Conclusions First, my conclusions are limited by the short life span of Bitcoin and the lookback periods of the indicators being used. The NVT can be used on lower time frames to find moments where the network is undervalued and therefor a buy to value investors but it still doesn't look proper on the first two years of available data. Second, there is this disturbing rising wedge formation on bitcoin as shown in purple. Since these wedges break down the majority of the time my assumption is that this one will likewise break down. That means that investors looking to use what has worked the last two cycles could be in for a nasty surprise. more indecision comes because bitcoin could have a melt up once it What I am doing and why I believe in charts and patterns. As such I am only taking shorts on crypto and have only had 3-4 long margin trades over the last year and some of them were absolute busts. One reason I became bearish is consolidation patterns did not resolve themselves bullishly or they turned out to be reversal patterns and when that happens it takes a while for the bearish energy to work its way out of the system. I am taking the portion of my paycheck that I use for crypto trading and using it to fund shorts and I don't have any crypto other than stable coins. I am going to be using my targeting on the double top pattern to stop me from being too greedy on my shorts. Once the price gets close to the 1.618 to 2 level on the fib retracement, which is near wedge support it would be reckless to short open new shorts considering a bounce would be very likely. A move from 15,000 to 35,000 is very doable with a short squeeze. Until I see a bullish pattern that is bigger than the purple rising wedge I am going to watch for the weekly NVT to go through the cycle and I don't feel like accumulating, I will wait for price to fight its way into the Gaussian channel and for the NVT to get out of the green. Here is a key point: rising wegdes that don't break down fully often were part of a channel. If I see price action finding support on the channel then that would be a larger chart pattern than the rising wedge and I can play that. Likewise the Keltner Channel and 200 week SMA have been great support before. If they appear to be working then I will look at putting on some long margin trades, but I don't see myself investing and holding crypto for a while. [b/Abnormal Bear Market The bottom of the wedge is the target for a mega bear market. This would probably mean that the Nasdaq bubble pops again and loses over 90% of its value. Commodities soar and people spend a fortune on making sure they can afford the bottom layer of Maslows Hierarchy of needs. If you don't need it for food or shelter, and it isn't addictive it will be sold off. Linked Ideas A broader view on why I am so bearish.
BNC:BLXShort
by This_Guhy
9
Volkswagen (VOW3.de) bearish scenario:The technical figure Rising Wedge can be found in the German company Volkswagen AG (VOW3.de) at daily chart. Volkswagen AG, known internationally as the Volkswagen Group, is a German multinational automotive manufacturing corporation. It designs, manufactures, and distributes passenger and commercial vehicles, motorcycles, engines, and turbomachinery, and offers related services, including financing, leasing, and fleet management. The Rising Wedge has broken through the support line on 25/01/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 12 days towards 164.62 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 195.00 EUR if you decide to enter this position. Volkswagen Group posted its lowest sales figures in 10 years in 2021 at 8.9 million deliveries, the carmaker said last Wednesday, and it said it expected supply chain conditions to remain volatile in the first half of this year. The Volkswagen brand saw an 8.1% drop in sales to just under 4.9 million units, with the biggest fall in China at 14.8%, although battery-electric vehicle sales in the country quadrupled. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
XETR:VOW3Short
by legacyFXofficial
Dow futures idea for short and medium termOn a daily chart, DOW has closed below 200 MA which calls for a bearish sign. However, there is still some support for the rising wedge. The trendline has broken very strongly on weekly. I think we are close to a halfway mark on correction; possibly 4-5% is still left to go. After that, we should see some possible reversal due to the confluence of: - reaching 23.6% on Fibonacci level; - support at the megaphone pattern; - the target of the wedge would be met; and - most of the big tech stock would also be at support.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by tradewithmitra
BAJAJ FINANCE TRADE UPDATENSE:BAJFINANCE is consolidating in a rising wedge pattern after giving a breakout from flag pattern. Price may potentially breakdown from this pattern and retrace as it has already given excellent momentum in the last week. Be sure to add quantity after the momentum of breakdown fades away. On the contrary, price can take big support from the bottom and breakout from this pattern - another opportunity to add more. Regardless of your holding in this stock, you can short the futures market if a breakdown follows and then add more quantity in cash market. Position size accordingly. HAPPY TRADING!
NSE:BAJFINANCE
by PriceActionSpotter
DOLLAR INDUSTRIES HIGH MOMENTUM TRADENSE:DOLLAR broke out from a major rising wedge pattern. Price did attempt a breakout prior to this but it could not sustain. Likewise, price gave a fake breakdown before giving a proper breakout and releasing huge momentum (25-30% in 1 week). Strong volumes towards virgin territory is another bullish sign in favor of this trade playing out. One may skip this trade because price has already moved 15% post breakout, But any small consolidation or a considerable retrace in price is a golden chance to enter and ride this momentum. Keep this stock in a watchlist. Don't miss out this beautiful trade. Lookout for any kind of retracement or consolidation and enter blindly. Potential 1:3, 1:4 Risk reward trade. Targets: 600/700/850+ sl: below 465 *as per price action (Opt for a more dynamic sl once price retraces to a lower level near breakout highs) Position size accordingly. WAIT FOR RETRACE. DON'T JUMP IN. LET GO OF THE TRADE IF PRICE CONTINUES TO RALLY IN ONE DIRECTION. HAPPY TRADING!
NSE:DOLLARLong
by PriceActionSpotter
USDJPY bearish scenario:The US dollar is being kicked down along with US yields as markets think twice about a faster pace of tapering by the Federal Reserve and wonder if they have priced the Fed too hawkishly. USD/JPY is on the backfoot and will likely remain so until yields begin to stabilize again. In this pair, technical analysis shows a technical figure Rising Wedge. The Rising Wedge broke through the support line on 14/01/2022. USD/JPY is forming a bearish formation on a daily chart. If the price holds below this level, we will have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 32 days with a target of 112.09. According to the experts, your stop loss should be around 116.36 if you enter this position. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Short
by legacyFXofficial
ADANI ENTERPRISE PRICE ACTION ANALYSISNSE:ADANIENT has been consolidating in a rectangle pattern after a very strong uptrend and broke out of it. It has also been consolidating in rising wedge pattern within the rectangle pattern from which it hasn't given a breakout out yet. Considering the bullish nature of stock, it is only a matter of time when it will breakout towards 1900 levels. Enter at the break of the wedge. Targets: 2100/2250/2500+ sl: below 1673 Position size accordingly post breakout. HAPPY TRADING!
NSE:ADANIENTLong
by PriceActionSpotter
ES1! + VIX possible reversalWhat's bearish: - Rising Wedge pattern - Rejection of the 200MA - A decrease in volume in the last 2-3 trading days - Bearish divergence (red line) - Falling wedge pattern on the VIX (image in the comment) This is a pure technical standpoint, it has nothing to do with fundamentals or the market sentiments Me: Hello I started with stocks 1 year ago. After analyzing many charts, I have accumulate more experience than a newb. Now I'm a newb+. Pls feel free to give me feedback
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gmurugneux