ETH Journey to 2025: Key Levels and Market ScenariosHello friends,
In late 2021, Ethereum ( BINANCE:ETHUSDT ) reached an all-time high of approximately $4,900 before experiencing a significant correction, dropping around 80% to a low of $880. Since that dip, ETH has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a potential long-term bullish trend.
I'm focusing on these key levels as important points for any macro cycle movement:
Pivot Points High Low Levels:
HH: $4,100 (Near ATH)
HH: $2,700 (Previous resistance)
HH/LL: $2,100 (Critical pivot)
LL: $1,500
LL: $880 (2022 low)
Bollinger Bands Analysis :
Currently, ETH is within the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a potential oversold condition. Historically, this has been a favorable zone for accumulation, as the price may revert to the mean once the selling pressure eases.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Case:
The most critical level to watch is $2,700. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for ETH to challenge the psychologically important $3,000 mark. If ETH can establish $3,000 as support, it would confirm a higher high and potentially signal the start of a new macro bull cycle.
Consolidation Case:
ETH may continue to trade between the $2,100 support and $2,700 resistance, forming a tightening range. This consolidation could set the stage for a significant move once resolved.
Bearish Case:
A failure to hold above $2,100 could lead to a retest of lower support levels. However, as long as ETH maintains its pattern of higher lows, the long-term bullish structure remains intact.
Conclusion:
The $3,000 level appears to be the key for initiating a potential macro bull cycle. Accumulation near the lower Bollinger Band could be a strategic move for those bullish on ETH's long-term prospects.
Risk Management:
Consider using the $2,100 level as a potential stop-loss for long positions, as a break below this level could invalidate the bullish thesis.
Happy Trading!
Resistence
Trend lines - how to build them and how to use them?Before we dive into the world of trend lines, I recommend familiarizing yourself with the support and resistance zone
Here we go:
Trend lines are one of the most universal tools for trading in any market, used in intraday, swing and position trading strategies. Properly drawn on charts, they help to predict the direction of price movement and identify trend reversals.
In addition, trend lines help you to accurately determine the optimal entry and exit points, as well as set a stop loss.
It is recommended not to rely on trend lines alone, but to integrate them with other methods of technical analysis, expanding your trading arsenal.
Often many traders draw too many lines, it is uninformative and useless
How to place trend lines on a chart?
An uptrend is a combination of at least two pullbacks
Similar in a downtrend:
Instructions for markings:
Find at least two points on the chart
Connect them with a line
But, let's remember the Axiom:
1. Randomness
2. Coincidence.
3. Regularity
Until a trendline is pushed back a third time - it is considered unconfirmed...
Once the third bounce has occurred, the line can be considered valid, but does not guarantee that it will necessarily bounce the fourth time!
Like all patterns in the market, trend patterns can be drawn on any timeframe, also - they are more effective on older ones (as well as all others)
How to use trend lines in your trading?
Frequent trades from a trend line are rebound or breakout trades
Example:
Trendline confirmed (bounced three times) - on the fourth approach we can pay attention - what happens next? Price will either bounce from our trendline again or there will be a breakout
Next example:
How can we determine whether there will be a breakout or a bounce? As I said before, you need to take into account the context: indicators, price action, nearby levels and so on (it all depends on your psychology)
How do trend lines fit together?
Support and resistance levels are areas on a chart that indicate potential pressure (on a side)
The same principle applies to trend lines. The only difference is that trend lines are sloped rather than horizontal.
How to properly label/draw trend lines?
Which trend lines are important and which ones should be ignored?
Focus only on the major pivot points
Connect at least two major pivot points.
Adjust the slope of the line to get the most amount of price touching the line, whether it is the shadows of candles or their bodies.
Important clarification - trend lines represent a support zone, not specific levels.
How can you use trend lines?
The trend is our friend. Where the trend goes, so goes we. Trading against the trend is foolish. If you do decide to do it, it must be justified!
Trend lines are the direction of the current market.
Also the trend line itself can be divided into two positions:
If the trend becomes flatter, it means that the market is moving into a state of consolidation
If the trend is becoming steeper, it means that the trend is getting stronger (or perhaps it is reaching its climax and is approaching its final stage).
Trend Lines Entry Point:
Like all other patterns in technical analysis or price action - trend lines can help you find a more favorable entry point in terms of risk-to-reward ratio
How to use a trend line to identify a market reversal?
Chances are you have encountered this before. There is a trend line breakout, you are already expecting a trend reversal, but the market continues its original movement
Like all indicators/patterns - not a panacea. Each strategy has its own risks, just when we add other osnovnopologologayuschih signs to one strategy, the chance of risking a loss - decreases!
Technique for determining a trend reversal:
Wait for a trend breakout
Wait for a lower low/maximum to form.
If the price breaks the previous minimum/maximum, most likely the trend will go in the direction of the breakdown...
False move monday on BitcoinWe are currently sitting at the EMA50 on the 4hr timeframe. It looks like we are doint a mean reversion here again. The top was quick and formed a wick but I couldn't finde any vector candle that could be liquidity pools to recover. We also have a CME GAP at $54.2k which will be recovered soon in my opinion. We had the retest of the $58k level which was very important but I expected it to happen on wednesday. Lets observe price action but my observation leans towards shorting.
BTC/USDT 4Hello everyone, let's look at the 4H BTC to USDT chart, in this situation we can see the price keeps below the downtrend line.
Let's start by setting goals for the near future, which include:
Target 1 59354 $
Target 2 61918 $
Target 3 65572 $
Target 4 70217 $
Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to decline:
Stop loss= 56,828 $
Stop loss = 54,943 $
Stop loss= 52,196 $
AND
Stop loss = 48,733 $
Looking at the RSI indicator, we see
That it is approaching the upper limit again, which may result in a price recovery in the coming hours.
BNB-USDT 1D ChartHello everyone, I invite you to a quick review of the BNB to USDT chart on a one-day time frame. As you can see, the price has set a new local upward trend line, which is important to stay in the upward phase.
After unfolding the Fib Retracement grid, you can see that the price rebounded from the level of $524, then the second support is at $500, the third support is at $477, and the fourth strong support is at $443.
Looking the other way, there is strong resistance around $561, but much more important is the level of $605 which has currently rejected the increases.
Follow The Trend or Wait for Retracement...NSE:BAJAJ_AUTO trade at 10500. Support is at 9700 and Resistance at 10600.
P/E RATIO - 36.35 Industry P/E - 23.75
On the 23rd AUG Bajaj Auto give a Breakout above 10000 level. You can wait for Retracement otherwise Follow the Trend for Next Resistance at 11200-11500.
BTC/USDT 4HInterval ChartHello everyone, I invite you to a short review of the BTC to USDT chart with a four-hour time frame. As you can see, we are staying above the locally formed upward trend line.
Taking into account the short time interval, we will first determine possible stop losses:
SL1: $61,351,
SL2: $58,982,
SL3: $57,213,
SL4: $55,249.
Looking the other way, we will define the immediate goals:
T1: 65569USD,
T2: 69909USD.
ETH-USDT 1D Interval ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to a quick review of the ETH pair to USDT chart, taking into account the interval of one day. As we can see, the price is moving along a locally formed upward trend line.
Currently, we can see how the price approached the resistance level at $2,843, then resistance at $3,010, then resistance at $3,251, and then very strong resistance at $3,569.
Looking the other way, support is visible at $2,550, the next support is at $2,383 and then there is support at $2,112.