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Recession

S&P 500 short position/SPX SELL and DROP=SHORTSPX shows signs of serious weakness having on mind technical side of the story. TECHNICAL PART: - DAILY MACD BEARISH -WEEKLY MACD BEARISH -DAILY STOCH RSI BEARISH. -WEEKLY STOCK RSI BEARISH From technical side i don't have doubts that stock market will experience one more crash which will be followed by inflation of USD towards 1,26 and 1,35 instance over EUR. From fundamental side, S&P 500 had three technical years historticaly (continual growth since 2008-nowdays) followed by a big crash on January 30.th when index fell from 3400-2200 index points. THATS 12 YEARS OF CONTINUAL GROWTH APROXIMATELY, since 1 technological year equates to 4-5 calendar years. USD MADE TRIPLE JUMP IN TECHNOLOGICAL SECTION BRINGING TECHNOLOGY to 5 NM. THEREFORE, I DO EXPECT SIMULATIOUS DROP ON NDAQ AND DJI. Now, after this " butterfly pattern" manifests, index of this unsustainable price will bring #SPX index to 2400 points and lower levels including very top of it at 1867 level. GERMAN ECONOMY WILL FOLLOW, I've stated it in the other chart of mine : CLEAR YOUR POSITIONS. Cheers
TVC:SPXShort
by milanjelic
AZO may run up to earningsIn my opinion, AutoZone is overvalued and the company's balance sheet is problematic. (Current liabilities are greater than current assets, giving the stock a negative book value per share.) However, the book value is bad partly because management has opted to buy back shares rather than pay debts, which is good for share holders and for the stock price even if not for the financial health of the company. Also, the odds look good for Autozone to report strong results and to deliver strong guidance on its upcoming earnings date. In August, the price of used cars rose 5.4% on the CPI report, and parts were one of the fastest growing categories on the PPI report. We're headed into a recession economy, where people will buy used cars and fix them rather than buying new. That should be great for parts retailers like Autozone.
NYSE:AZOLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
NASDAQ - The second wave has begun!As we can see on the chart we have broken through the upward channel and we are ready for a correction. The correction on theory should have the TP1 target, but I think there is something else that could be going on. I have the following fundamental reasons for thinking that we will see much deeper drop: - The elections are comming in America and this creates a lot of uncertainty, because of the different policies that could get implemented if whoever gets elected. This makes investors worried and they could pull their invesments out till all of this has cleared. - The second wave of the virus has officialy started already in some countries like South Korea and also in Europe we see huge increase in new confirmed cases. There are many theories about a second wave in September which would be even stronger and this could scare investors aswell and pontetially close lead to closing down businesses which would triger even lower bottom. - The stimulus packages are not going to last forever! They actually helped people through unemployment and also gave a little economy boost, but once it is over, people won't spend money and the economy will slow down again. - There are many tenants who can't pay their rent and the landlords won't be able to recieve that rent, which they need to most likely pay for their mortgage, so this will lead to a chain reaction which will again slow down the economy and most likely cause housing crash. - There are many people who can't repay their loans, because they don't have a job or stable income, so there would be a higher default rate on loans. - The small businesses were damaged heavily by the virus and many of them won't recover, so this will hurt the economy and the people. - The gains we saw in the market are unrealistic and right now everyone is just buying in without good fundamentals, so this is bound to fall sharp at one point or another, because the banks have to take out their profits. When this happens and it is most likely happening right now, the market will fall and wipe out as aways the retail investor. My advice is don't short the economy just yet, rather be well diversified and reduce the risk! Make sure you have some money on the sidelines and be ready to buy into the market if we fall. Aways invest for the long-term and just be ready to buy more. Leave your comments bellow, if you like the idea give it a like!
TVC:NDQShort
by donaitelo
3
#SPX - Betting against the market once again Few patterns are forming on the chart 1. we are trading inside a possible Broadening Wedge & about to hit R2 resistance on monthly charts hence looking to enter short position. 2. RSI Divergence - look on the left, see what happened back in 2019 elections are coming up in November so i think market will top out around that time, i am gonna wait for MONTHLY CANDLE CLOSE BEFORE ENTERING or i will average in my entry but trying to get average around 3450 for the short position. currently monthly candle is super strong i want to see a price rejection & bearish candle stick pattern formed to give more confidence with my short position. check the timeline for further updates. there is also a possibility of H&S but i am not sure of it yet, i think we will probably turn this range into an ascending triangle instead if H&S pans out that will mean we are entering in to multiyear recession/Depression!!!!!!! #notfinancialadvisor #DoYourOwnResearch
SP:SPXShort
by Bromadic
10
Evidence for inflation: Changes in DXY/CPI Inflation is erosion of the dollars buying power: ( when consumer prices are changing (rising) faster than the value of the dollar.) One way to quantify this is the ratio between the Dollar (DXY) and CPI (the Consumer Price Index). A decrease in this ratio is consistent with the concept of inflation As of August 9th 2020 two analysis below (A & B) show** the dollars buying power is dropping (the slope of the DXY/CPI ratio is decreasing) (A) Quantitative Analysis: Top Bolinger Band (green): Length is 634 weeks, starting from the 2008 crash low. Bottom Bolinger Band (Orange): Length is 50 weeks (~ one year) The two bands show that every time the DXY/CPI ratio crosses the BBands mid-line (634MA) it coincides with a statistically significant change in the 50 week trend (abs(BB50) >2SD, p<.05,). The current values of BB634 and BB50 suggest that we have entered a period of increasing inflation. (B) Inferring causality: A smaller DXY/CPI ratio can be the result of a) a drop in DXY value (with no change in CPI) b) a price increase (CPI) with no change if DXY value. There's room for both a and b since, first, DXY charts for this period show an irrefutable drop in DXY value. Secondly (and informally) I recently got back from shopping and, bruh....shiz got expensive!! /sarc Notes: ** the analysis are consistent with a rejection of the null hypothesis that there is no change.
TVC:DXY
by gb50k
11
This will end, probably badly. How high does it go?Tech is clearly a bigger part of the real economy (GDP) today compared to 20 years ago, but even with that in mind this market is in the Stratosphere. Will everyone keep buying no matter the price because TINA (There is no alternative) due to artificially low interest rates. Do recessionary conditions in the broad economy no longer matter? Do business fundamentals no longer matter? Will continued stimulus and bailouts render high unemployment moot? Universal Basic Income for the poor and a never-ending equity boom for the rich? The Everything bubble is in full force with equities, commodities, crypto, junk debt, real estate and nearly everything else you can buy/sell going up in value. Cash is trash and punishing holders. Everyone is a trader and turning a quick profit almost no matter what they buy. Bad news is fine as long as it's better than yesterdays' headline. Silver linings on dark clouds seem to be all that is needed to justify a moonshot. The top is usually way higher than most think, but it's up there somewhere and the air is pretty thin. If prices are to come back down to something closer to historic norms what will be the trigger to start the inevitable avalanche? The thought that it has to be something worse than what we've already experienced this year is sobering.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by RobBiddle
A November to RememberThis is one of those charts that do not make people happy, because its not based on delusion. I keep looking through charts and saw people predicting $45,000 - 200,000 bitcoin. I ask, what are those charts based off? I have called them "just because" charts.. as the authors usually say "because BTC has continuously rallied in price". But you never hear of good, solid fundamentals on why Bitcoin will rally over 1000%. There is no ground breaking breakthroughs in Bitcoin tech. There is no new mass adoption or utilization. Let's face the facts: Bitcoin utilizes an exorbitant amount of energy. Bitcoin has consistently followed the stock market moves (which is overdue for another March style selloff) Crypto-Currency Market is in a massive bubble, with over 7,000 coins all competing with each other. They all claim to do what they do, faster, cheaper, and better than the next. I predict that between August and November you will see the following: Rise in unemployment. Rise in defaults, bankruptcies, foreclosures. Rise in civil unrest and crime. The largest sell off of equities ever seen. Facts: The EuroZone entered the Covid Pandemic already in recession. The Bloc economically is far worse than the United States, and the Euro Zone will be the first to fall. The United States economy is by far much worse than 2008, even matching or eclipsing Great Depression levels in certain sectors and statistics. All countries have pressed Maximum Print on their fiat printers, and will cause inflation world wide. We may see a short period of deflation, followed by hyper-inflation. Keep in mind, it took Zimbabwe to go from $1 denomination to $100,000,000,000,000 notes in just one year. Proposed changes to society and laws will have a negative impact on society, causing further division and unrest. We have studied not only economics but also demographics. And all I can say at this point is, it's been fun, those who made money with Bitcoin and stocks, congrats. November will be a time like we who are alive have never experienced before. Demographics and current events point to a calamity soon to take place not only in the United States but around the world. We will be a part of a global depression, in which we will see major fiat currencies like the US Dollar, Euro, Yen, and Yuan fail. The elite at the World Economic Forum have called for a global reset on money. I believe we will see a new world monetary standard established out of the crisis, as fiat will be a thing of the passed. China has already digitized their Yuan. We will see digital money, but, it will NOT be crypto-currency. We believe that crypto has been the worlds largest test of digital money. The creator coincidentally happens to be unknown, but, based on how crypto required extensive identification requirements and taxation, we can safely say this was a united government creation. Just keep an eye out, remember this chart and prediction. This isn't a doom and gloom chart, or prediction.. this was taking a step back, monitoring current and passed events, adding demographics into the mix, as well as seeing what world leaders are calling for and making this prediction. Take it with a grain of salt, out right refuse it, it doesn't matter. Watch and see!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by WorldEconomics
12
Marketwide Recession: NDX NasDaq ShortI don't have a lot of time for anywhere near as in-depth as I'd like to go on the current market conditions regarding COVID-19 and Federal Reserve policy; but I'll try to get the important points. The Federal Reserve Money Printer has been going "BRRRR..." for a while now. The interest rates are already essentially slashed to zero and without going negative they are starting to run out of options to keep this boat artificially afloat. The Fed kicked it's Quantitative Easing program that staved off the 2008 recession into warp/overdrive lately by beginning to buy billions of corporate bonds and ETF's. The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned from about 3 Trillion to over 7 Trillion in assets. That's essentially 4 Trillion dollars the fed has poofed out of thin air and now pumped into the M1 Money Supply. The crash in March was exactly that; a crash. I believe we are headed for a potential multi-year recession. This inflation is essentially a silent tax to bail out corporations at the cost of the taxpayer, without the actual outrage that comes from raising taxes. Couple that with the billions upon billions in corporate tax breaks you've got a double-whammy against the working class. Boeing for example crashed from over ~$350 to $80 and almost went bankrupt because they made a bunch of planes that fall apart and companies began cancelling orders left and right when the economy shut down. Well guess who's also a military contractor; makes all our Apaches and is "too big to fail" and got hundreds of millions in Federal aid at the cost of tax payers. Those fortunate enough to have investments in Boeing and the like? They'll do just fine. The Rich CAN and WILL get hurt during the crash; but they will get bailed out. But what happens to the little guy who's 401k and retirement fund take a -30-40% haircut? By the time they realize the music has stopped and there are no chairs left for them it will be too late and their advisors will most likely tell them to hold. Throw potentially losing your job on top of losing your retirement and that's a recipe for major multi-year recession. We've also got my generation JUST entering the housing market at record highs. While sure; they have low 3-4% interest rate APRs on their mortgages what happens if and when they get let go from their job and can't make payments on houses that may potentially be worth less than when they bought them. In order to stave this off we probably would have had to let the economy grow naturally and in line with GDP and let the companies that go bankrupt fail. A meritocracy; but everyone is too afraid to do that as that means layoffs and unemployment temporarily and it "looks bad" on the politicians in office. So instead they just all keep propping things up in turn like a huge game of musical "fuck the middle class" chairs (minimum is still $7.25/hr mind you lol). However, just like emotions; you can't bottle up your problems forever and pretend they don't exist. if you keep pushing it off and don't find healthy outlets; eventually that bottle starts to crack and the cork pops and it all comes rushing out at once. Here's my analysis of the NDX / NASDAQ Top 100: We've got a Bearish Divergence on RSI which is VERY concerning; that's one of my strongest indicators and what precursed the last crash in March; except this one is bigger and badder and we have broken past the old record highs we started from... meaning the pain could be even worse. Some would argue this divergence could continue to play out up until ~11,500-12,000 and i'd be inclined to agree; there are trendlines that support that theory. We currently sit at we currently sit at 10,637.52 at the time of writing (18 minute before market close, 7/16/2020). My upside target is the 1.68 Fibonacci Retracement drawn off of the crash in March; aka the green box @ 11,565 My downside target to be conservative is the 0.618 retracement from this recovery; aka the red box @ 8418.9
TVC:NDQShort
by Meteorite777
Market Concentration ViewsUsing the ratio of equal weight S&P 500 to the market cap weighted S&P 500 provides great insight into how concentrated the market is. Market Concentration Market concentration tends to grow as a bull market extends into its older age. There are some basic structural reasons for this. Portfolio Managers & discretionary investors naturally pile into winning stocks Passive funds by their very mandate are forced to buy more of the stocks with higher market cap weighting The two aforementioned items force momentum to continue buying the winning stocks and sell the losing stocks Rinse and repeat all the aforementioned steps an you get a steepening concentration into winners Bull markets tend to end when the current market regime sees a trend change. During a typical bear market, you will actually get MORE piling into the winners and selling of losers. This is likely a product of paring down leverage and reducing market exposure during bearish environments, wherein investors hold their winners and sell their losers. With that said, new bull markets start with the macro regime shift where laggards start to take over and reverse the previous market concentration. The process will hold for a while during a new bull run, until new market leadership is well established, and weightings again start to reverse the concentration within the major indices. At this point, the SPX/RSP ratio will start to shift upward yet again, indicating the latter parts of a bull run. These runs do not have set time frames, but they can give indication of where the market is at *currently*. As we can currently see, we are likely not in a new bull market / macro regime as the previous concentration has not reversed. As a result, we are still in either the previous bull run, or an ongoing bear market.
SP:SPX
by GTStockmaster
5