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Recession

The start of a long trainNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Today we will be looking at economic correlations and why bonds are moving the way they are. As of right now the 10y and 7y are a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a percent away from inverting and a inversion percent in the 30y to 20y is as much currently. 30y to 20y is already inverted. There are MANY reasons why and this is not so simple. Bonds are selling off across the board with only the 1mo remaining the same. Tho today seems to be about flat, the trend continues. Housing, rate hikes, savings, inflation, liquidity, fomo speculation and foriagn investments are all tied to this and as a result the analysis will continue with other charts produced today
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
Crash this year or later?Eventually spy will collapse on to that long term growth line in white. For sure it will happen, not sure when, it could be by the end of this year or even next year. We may have a bounce here and there, with high volatility. Fed meeting in March could accelerate or decelerate the eventual collapse. Growth stocks have already collapsed more than 50% and may not recover, could see more drops. There could be immediate dead cat bounce in the coming days. Be cautious moving forward.
AMEX:SPYShort
by babu_trader
The crash will probably start this year, but first: $5468 targetI'm predicting that we will get a correction to the september lows. After that, we will see an epic final run-up. Arround the target level of $5468, I am expecting a massive blow off-top. After that the trend is going to be nothing but down. The low of the recession will probably come to an end in 2025 (however I don't like to link prices to dates). Be carefull guys. We could be going into a recession very soon from now. If we get enough bad news, the blow-off top won't happen and the markets could fall any time from now. But I still think that we need some kind of blow-off top for a crash. The volatility index also shows that a big move is coming soon. It might be a great Idea to stay out of the markets. In my opinion we will most likely see it this year in the end of Q3/beginning Q4, but could be as early as early spring/now. The market is looking very unhealthy and I wrote about that in november 2021. I will make an update soon. (This is not financial advice!!!) (Do your own research.) Good luck everyone!!! Duursma, Yuri.
SP:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
1
Bitcoin Death Cross Scenarios$BTC closed Jan 6th Daily with a bearish engulfing candle, providing indication that selling momentum remains strong. Unable to sustain long-term mid-channel as support, increasing likelihood of 100 EMA falling below the 200 EMA for an impending "death cross" in near future. Bearish structures continue, double tops, head & shoulders losing neckline support, Lindsay's 3 Peaks & Domed House. Overall, macroeconomic picture shows markets are overheated with Fed communicating multiple rate hikes are imminent. Market indicators (M2, PPI, CPI, Rev Repo, etc.) clearly reflect bumpy road ahead. Bitcoin support levels to watch - Going to $38k Potential to continue downwards for support at: 1. Best Case: $35k 2. Likely Case: $30k 3. Worst Case: $19k 4. Candle wick low for worst case is potential of $12k to $16k Invalidation scenarios: 1. Unlikely: Continued QE and "stimulus" delaying an overall major market correction 2. Possible: Market sentiment changes and BTC is considered a hedge to protect principal 3. Reversal: Bitcoin Spot ETF or other catalyst causing inflow of new money or broader institutional buy-in.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by R0MM3LL
The Next Leg DownWelp, I'm calling it. I believe the next leg of this market sell off is coming. I'm sure all of you saw the Asset Bubble Chart.. I just can't believe we will be a part of something like this. I believe the short term bear market rally has about come to its end and we are heading towards another sell off. There is absolutely no news that can prop up markets at this point. The numbers are starting to come in globally, and PMI, GDP world wide is utterly collapsed. Oil while it had a short move upward is still at prices that producers can not maintain. You will see an influx of bankruptcies of oil producers and shale companies. In fact, it already started. World wide, it's no better. Keep in mind that, during America's boom since 2016, most of Europe was in recession. Now imagine how bad the EuroZone is as they entered this crisis already in recession. So, what's my opinion? I believe the EuroZone will collapse first. There is new infighting between the EU and Germany on the ECB's Bond Buying Program. This is potentially catastrophic as the EBC has no stopped their bond buying program since 2010 and they already have their interest rates at -0.45%! Europe has nothing left in their arsenal besides massive printing and stimulus, which will be short lived. After Europe collapses, Japan will be the next country to be hit. Japan has been had some of the worst economics and demographics of any country. They have been printing like never before and their entire country is heading into a depression. Couple this with weaker sales of electronics and vehicles, Japan is going to hit a wall here soon. The Bank of Japan can not save what was done. Lastly, the United States will have its day of reckoning. After decades of unbalanced budgets, printing infinitely, political uncertainty and a general instablity, the US will have a recession that never was before. The Great Recession of 2008 shattered the floor.. and since them they put glue in all the cracks, it held but they added more weight than ever. Every kind of debt is at record levels. The US Federal Tax Revenue is dropping $100,000 even 9 seconds and the US Debt is growing $100,000 every 4 seconds. The last time this Tax Revenue fell was 2008, during the recession. It's over folks. I don't mean to sound like an alarmist but you call a spade a spade when you see it. I believe this is the catalyst to the end of fiat world wide. Besides, historically, about even 30-50 years the world has been on a new global monetary standard since 1900s. The last monetary standard was in 1970s when Nixon killed the Bretton Woods system. So, what'll happen from here? The central banks will do what they always do in a crisis and the printers will be put on max output. Currency will be created like never before. I believe in the next 1-3 years, we will see hyper inflation in the US. Keep in mind, the One-Dollar Zimbabwe was worth $1.40ish USD in 2007. In 2008, we had the infamous 100,000,000,000,000 trillion Zimbabwe notes. Yes, it took just ONE year for hyper inflation to hit. What can I say? Hedge in silver and gold , a little in BTC because at this point who knows what will survive this crash. Dow will fall easily below 10,000.. and we will see the greatest number of unemployed people ever. This virus did a whole lot more damage underneath than we thought. There will NOT be a U-Shaped recovery. Fear has set in, people do not want to return to work and the once insane thought of basic income is now becoming reality. This isn't a chart on how to profit from this down turn, its just a cold reality check. I believe man has held it together for as long as they did but we see, people are no longer patient or caring. People are quicker to jump to conflict than peace. I believe society will also collapse and the once sane moral minded man will descend into violence, rioting, and looting. It sounds far fetched but, man will be man doesn't matter what year it is. static.seekingalpha.com
TVC:DJI
by WorldEconomics
10
Bear market roaring. Inflation to Deflation. VIX will be massiveVix have blasted out of range serval times and getting larger and larger and now the past days banks have traded massive % of the market. Dollar spiking hard today friday 17 December. I believe market will crash monday december 20th 2021. This crash will be above 50%. last crash want a real one. This my calculations right VIX will blast to 150 dollar mark. Inflation is a big problem has not arised just now. its been that high for months. time is out. Market will go down now, when people are less focused.
TVC:VIXLong
by PivotX
2
Is that a recession on the horizon? (TL;DR @ end)In one of the previous ideas I published, I addressed the rising concerns many people have regarding exchange traded funds, or at least the ones that use various indexes as a benchmark for weighting and distribution. Obviously, linked to this would be the concern of a crash in the whole of the U.S stock market and possibly all western markets (I can't perform an educated judgement on eastern markets as I have limited knowledge in that regard). Unfortunately for the United States economy, the situation has been looking rather dire. There are countless reasons to why I say this, two of which I must mention, are: 1. The inflation rates in the US that have increased to 6.2% according to the consumer price index. 2. The democrats' (likely successful) attempt at raising the debt ceiling for the government to avoid default. Not only are these 2 signs very concerning as far as economic stability but, like every recession prior to date; had stocks trading at the highest levels ever recorded. Which is exactly what is happening right now as you read this. Luckily for bond holders and unfortunately for borrowers, in response to these increased inflation rates, interest rates are also destined to rise. The effect of this was seen today in the US 10 year state bonds ( TVC:US10 ) as they increased by just under half a percentage point in price in 24 hours. This may be a good time to transfer some of your stock holdings into state bonds for the sake of safety, before the potential recession. The other concern is how ludicrously high the market is trading. If you take a look at any of the major public corporations, you will notice that they are trading at earnings multipliers that are astronomical (that's actually an understatement) but despite this fact, many people are still buying stocks at an alarming rate. If you take a sneak peak at the news, you will see a huge portion of traders all 'screaming' "buy more, buy more", regardless of the fact that 90% of stocks and crypto are trading at ludicrous prices and are bound to take some sort of fall at some point in the near future. I am writing this just to put the thought in the back of some of my fellow investors' minds, hopefully might make them re-evaluate their portfolio distribution and possibly have a bit of cash at hand to buy some of the bargains that will come out of the next recession. As usual, other opinions, facts and news are always welcome, stay safe and comment away! TL;DR: There are a couple of signs of a potential recession on the horizon, between overpriced stocks and crypto and people's ludicrous spending in the market. When this recession may occur is not for my prediction but given increased interest rates, I would suggest converting some of your liquid assets to state bonds and/or cash so you can take advantage of the coming bargains.
SP:SPX
by Michael_Axio
Is Silver About To Have a Massive Breakout? - 30 USDOn the 4 Hourly we are seeing a massive Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. I believe that the inflation data by the FED minutes, is going to send Silver to breakout from the downtrend it has been on for some time. Stay tuned for long-targets, as we see this breakout accour. Fundamentals: Mine production from primary silver companies also fell last year, by 3.8%. It, too, is expected to drop by double digits this year. The ten largest silver countries have produced 12% less silver just since 2016. Supplies of recycled silver have fallen by 28% just since 2012.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by LukeSkywalker
1