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Recession

4 Scenario of Correction to Recession. 50-80% discount coming.This is a technical chart showing levels and pattern for coming scenarios. Big Risk of Crash with Russia market crash 50% and we have massive debt in the world, around 10x as 2008. GBPUSD and AUDUSD has been on a run of 30% in 2 years time and index in US on a run of 150% gain. Most index stocks have multiplied and we have a inflation of 5% that indicate we need a deflation Scenario to not risk of destroying dollar currency. That shows that we cant keep pumping inflational products like oil, metals and stocks any longer. We hit the big problem in November with a big expire of options. We are at level now when War has pause the crash of the economy and set in on a temporary run and a chock in the system is already in play. Just matter of days to weeks before it will affect the market again. I recommend the same I did in Nov about market crash. Stay in cash and dollar preffered with a euro, gbpusd, aud every overextended gains in 2 years. Market can tumble very fast coming future. I see this month going into negative numbers. With Treasury yield around 2.5% is risk of reversal in market. Good procent for short term hold as risk management and more secure product. I was right about 2020 and nov 2021. the end is very near and very overextended because of the war scenario. Risk for oil going back to 65 in days is very true. production price is around there and we have a scenario for market that shows market weakness if we start to go passed that price in inflationary products. remember oil shows the way. Metals is coming back down. Its just matter of timing. Best Regards Robin Bertlin
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by PivotX
3
Bond Market Volatility & EconomyBond yields serve as a leading indicator of economic performance, with major headwinds in the form of inflation and labor shortages, short-term yields have begun to invert demanding higher premiums than longer-term bonds. As the bond market moves in anticipation, volatility increases and serves as a signal to the broader economy. $MOVE provides a benchmark with bond market volatility, with an uptrend and spikes nearing Feb/Mar 2020. The chart presents measurements going back to lat 2002, reflecting a dramatic uptick in volatility as the housing market collapsed in 2008. The uptrend reflected now is serving as another warning to the markets that turbulent times lay ahead.
TVC:MOVEShort
by R0MM3LL
1
Part 2) Don't Fight The FED. The Yield Curve is Fine.All over financial news we're being told that the yield curve is inverting, spreads are flattening, the recession clock is ticking, there's impending doom around every corner. CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The Economist, you pick your favorite news source and they're talking about 2's and 10's, 10's and 30's, it's Armageddon!!! How about we look at the actual indicator the FED uses to predict U.S. Recessions. The Federal Reserve uses the 10-year/3-month term spread as it's most reliable indicator to predict U.S. Recessions. The charts posted above come directly from the Federal Reserve of New York's website. According to the FED's data the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months is about 6%. Here is the link to the website: www.newyorkfed.org Link to the interactive charts: www.newyorkfed.org Link to FAQ's: www.newyorkfed.org The team at All Star Charts did an interesting post on this topic just recently. I suggest you take a look. allstarcharts.com Food for thought. Thanks for reading. Good Luck to All!!
TVC:US10YEducation
by Breakout_Charts
BTC could be bullish in the next 12-18 monthsBTC is going through a stage 1 trend (lateral), and could start a stage 2 trend (bullish) in the next months, staying above the 210, 70 & 14 MAs, and holding strong RSI and MACD numbers in weekly charts. In terms of chartism, it's going through the most bearish zones of a long-term uptrend channel. Fundamentally talking, the global economic landscape could "see" tokenized assets as a recession-proof investment product, inlcuding, in a long-term basis, institutional investors, who could join the blokcchain space via fiatised assets such as ETFs, private-ended funds or mutual funds. In general, BTC is in a adequate position in order to ahieve Alpha in a 12-18 months horizon.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by blockmas
My bet against Yields and for the Stock MarketsThe US government bonds are currently on everyone's lips. Wherever you listen, you hear the word recession and people sometimes talk about the "big crash". This is due to the currently enormously rising interest rate curve. However, I think that we saw our peak in 10-year government bonds yesterday and I think that the 10-year yield curve will now start falling. This is all of a technical nature and should now lead to a sell off to the 61.8% Fibonacci level which should bring us back to the 1% levels. This is enormously good for the stock markets and especially for technology stocks. I think that we can still expect a big surprise from the central bank and that exactly what very few expect will happen. I'm betting against government bonds and for that I'm betting everything on growth stocks over the next 2 years. This is no financial advice.
TVC:US10YShort
by RT_Trading_
2D Copper chart shows that Dr. Copper is still in down trendCopper is an indicator of world economy, during recession period it goes down along with the stock market. Copper peaked in last few days while the stock market around the world was falling or extremely volatile. However in 2 Days time frame it does clearly shows a pin bar which was a Lower High in series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs. I think copper may continue its down trend if the war situation starts affecting world economy.
Short
by spranav
The Anatomy of a Bear MarketRecently, a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of a multi-year recession. I don't think that is a clear depiction of the current situation, but I am aware that the idea stems from a lack of understanding of bear market structures, and influence of market sentiment. So in this post, I'll be going over Ken Fishers' rules and conditions that must be met in order for a market to be clarified as a bear market, and how you can best position yourself to minimize downside risk. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. The Four Rules of a Bear Market - The first rule is the two percent rule: a bear market typically declines by about 2% per month. - Sometimes it declines by more than 2%, sometimes it’s less—but overall and on average, bear markets don’t often begin with the sharp, sudden drop some anticipate. - If a bear does drop by more than 2% per month, there’s often a market counter-rally that can provide better opportunities for investors to sell. - The three month rule: This rule advocates waiting three months after you suspect a peak has happened before calling a bear market. - Rather than trying to guess when a market top might come, this rule ensures one has passed before taking defensive investment action. - It provides a window of time to assess fundamental investment data, market action and possible bear market drivers. - I often see lots of people call market tops and bottoms, and time the market perfectly, but it needs to be clearly understood that this isn't the right approach to understanding the market. - Next, we have the the two-thirds / one-third rule. - About one-third of the stock market’s decline occurs in the first two-thirds of a bear’s duration, and about two-thirds of the decline occurs in the final one-third. - This was the case in the bear market caused by the financial crisis, as well as many other bear markets including that of 1973. - Combining this with the three month rule, it also implies that if you have identified that a market has indeed begun its bear run, you might be better off taking profits/losses on your position, managing risk by increasing your cash holdings, and buying back when capitulation has happened. - And finally, we have the 18-month rule. - While bull market durations vary considerably, statistics demonstrate that the average bear market duration, since 1946, has only been 16 months. - Very few in modern history last fully two years or longer. - If you’re engaging a defensive investment strategy, you probably shouldn’t bet on one lasting so long. - The longer a bear market runs, the more likely you’re waiting too long to re-invest. - If you remain bearish for longer than 18 months, you may miss out on the rocket-like market ride that is almost always the beginning of the next bull run. - Missing that can be very costly for investors. So are we currently in a bear market? - Based on the four rules above, there's a high probability that we are not in a bear market. - Since I've uploaded this post, the market has bounced swiftly off the 100 moving average on the weekly. - Just as the covid-induced drop of March 2020 turned out to be a 'buy the dip' opportunity, as opposed to the beginning of a bear market, the sharp correction we have seen since the beginning of this year goes against the first rule of the bear market. - It’s critical not to call a bear market falsely, and this is a huge mistake that a lot of people make. - If the market is just going through a correction (a short, sentiment-driven downturn of -10% to -20%), you’re better off riding through it and maintaining your portfolio. - It is impossible to accurately and consistently time market corrections because of the way they behave. - A correction can start for any reason or no reason. So if you believe that the economy is strong, and the fundamentals of the company you invest in remain solid, there's no need to sell off your holdings, especially when your actions are motivated by fear. Conclusion Bull market corrections are not fun, but it's important as an investor for you to be able to distinguish bear markets/recessions from bull market corrections. Choosing to undertake a bear market investment strategy and go defensive should be rare and shouldn’t be done by gut feel or by your neighbor’s opinion. Exiting the market is among the biggest investment risks you can take—if you’re wrong and you have a need for portfolio growth, missing bull market returns can be extremely costly. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
TVC:SPXEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
53
BNB Chart with Whole World SHORTLY; There is no problem with the market's current situation. Most crypto charts are doing well. I chose to explain it with BNB TA. I don't talk about it for a while. I want to talk with a different perspective and then we can see a lot more for the future. Again, eyes should be on Asia-Pacific's political events. I want to talk with different perspectives to the whole world.then we can apply it whole market include oil, gold, silver etc. (China-Taiwan-India-Japan-Australia) WHY EYES SHOULD BE ON ASIA-PACIFIC? (with a simple and short way to explain) Most reports now (and in previously shared reports), say, China's GDP will reach approximately $33-40 Trillion by 2030. HSBC Long-Term Global GDP Rankings by 2030 (first 3)(which is published September 2018) -China -USA -India Lowy Institute World GDP Forecast by 2030 (first 3) : -China -USA -India Standard Chartered Largest Economies by 2030 (first 3) -China -USA -India etc.. Please scroll up and read results of reports again (first 3) because I think you didn't understand it, yet. So, I don't believe Pentagon (which annual budget of $752.9 billion in 2022) will let it be. If USA will let it -I think won't- China's Silk Road (which is starts in China to (with Bering Strait) USA, even Africa! you confused, right? Most institutions (and current drawed maps) think this road only starts in China, ended in England-Rotterdam but it's not) take everything on the world.. I end this with a quote "you become what you understand" -Soren Kierkegaard. Take Care Everyone. ATTENTION: This is only my forecast, don't take this as any financial advice, it's just my research and opinion. always do your own research! not financial advice.
Long
by AGhostTrader
Mortgage Rates Explode Higher at Second Fastest Rate in HistoryThe monthly chart for US 30-year mortgage rates is exploding higher at a rate not seen since the 1970s. This chart shows that monthly rates are following the 3rd standard deviation higher, which is an extremely rare rate of increase. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is shown at the bottom of this chart. The CCI is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis primarily to identify overbought and oversold levels by measuring an instrument's variations away from its statistical mean. It is currently at the second highest level ever (on the monthly chart), second only to the 1973 Oil Crisis. That crisis caused a bear market between January 1973 and December 1974 that affected all the major stock markets in the world. It was one of the worst stock market downturns since the Great Depression. The stock market lost 45% of its value during this time. How confident are you that the Federal Reserve will be successful at engineering a soft landing? How do you define a 'soft landing'?
FRED:MORTGAGE30US
by SpyMasterTrades
1
SPX at critical resistance point right now.Just a very quick TradingView exclusive update on the PSX. Today we are at a critical point and i believe it is more likely this creates selling pressure to at least visit the 100-day MA before continuing a decline. this could be a slow decline or very fast if we head into a crash. We need to be watchin if the FED reverses policy which they may not considering inflation. There is a Russia scape goat right now though i could see as a potential to be blamed for many of our own politically stupid economic moves over the decades. If the FED turns around, starts printing, lending increases, government spends like drunken sailors, expect the SPX to rise nominally but he question becomes, what does it buy you? if those things increase at a faster rate when what does the stock matter? i think commodities are going to win in this long term inflation battle along with this war happening. At least for now as government could create rationing orders that could smash profits from companies and even put them out of business. This is going to be a wild next ten years. Stay Classy TradingView.
SP:SPXShort
by DefyingFinance
Recession Risk IncreasingWidespread economic data reflecting unhealthy market indicating significant risk of total market correction (stagflation/recession) 1. Inflation (CPI, PPI) sharly rising at levels not seen in 4 decades 2. Leading indicator: New Home Sales declining, with increasing housing supply 3. Lagging Indicator: Durable Goods month over month and year over year declined 4. Commodity prices rising sharply including oil closing in on all time high 5. Money supply at volumes far above sustainable levels 6.Overnight Reverse Repo currently at $1.7 Trillion 7. Gold monthly chart reflects bullish cup and handle pattern formed from 2011 to present with price target of $2.5k Labor market is realizing extreme shortage, with decreasing labor availability in a trend that the BLS has identified for years. Competition for scarce labor increasing as there are more jobs than total workforce available to fill them even at 100% employment. This trend is predicted to continue for the remainder of this decade. Federal Reserve lacks credibility with current regime losing ability to sway markets. FOMC communicated tightening policies with incremental 25 bps rate hike and the markets responded with the healthiest week of growth in over 2 years.
TVC:US10Y
by R0MM3LL
Fed's Catch-22A Catch-22 is a problem for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem or by a rule. This is exactly the problem the Federal Reserve faces. Historic inflation continues to accelerate, becoming embedded into the market's expectations and risking a spiral effect In order to stop rapid inflation, and achieve its mandate of price stability, the Fed must raise interest rates as rapidly as inflation is rising. The Fed cannot raise interest rates as rapidly as would be needed to slow rapid inflation because it would rapidly begin to freeze liquidity in the corporate bond market. Rapid tightening would spillover to corporate earnings, asset prices, consumer borrowing and spending, economic growth and ultimately employment, countering the Fed's mandate of maintaining stable employment. The last time that investment grade corporate bond prices fell below their monthly EMA ribbon support was in March 2020, when the Fed made emergency purchases of corporate bond ETFs to ensure liquidity. Now the bond prices are falling below their monthly EMA ribbon support and the Fed is taking the exact opposite measure by calling for accelerated rate hikes. Is it possible to avoid a recession at this point? Only time will tell but the charts seem to doubt it.
AMEX:LQD
by SpyMasterTrades
4
TLT BreakThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning. The monthly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbons have experienced their worse violation in the fund's 20 year history. Typically the monthly EMA ribbons act as very strong long term support. The lower 55 month EMA band can act as a low risk to reward long entry. The price at which the monthly candle closes is determinative. Fortunately, there is roughly an 80% chance that the 20-year bull trend in the price of TLT will hold in March 2022. (This probability comes from the standard deviation from the monthly mean). So for now, at least, the trend is likely to continue. However, the chart suggests that the decades-long trend is dangerously close to breaking.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SpyMasterTrades
4
SPX/USOIL Presenting A Market Signal?Patterns present themselves in the strangest of ways. Sometimes they mean something and other times they mean nothing. There is a fine line between pattern and coincidence. Here is the S&P-500 with USOIL to compare previous cycles. As the chart presents, each time there has been a significant deviation from the current trend in USOIL it has resulted in a Recession. I have marked the last 3 times in the chart. In total it has happened 6 times since the 1970s. We are merely down 14% at its bottom in comparison to 20-50% in the past. Pay close attention to each divergence shown in the chart. Is this time going to be different?
SP:SPX
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
3